JoshMartini007

I constructed a simulation, but in rowing times can be quite different between heats due to each race having a different strategy. Additionally some rowers may be conserving strength and thus underperformed during the heats.
 
 
M1x - *
W1x -
LM2x -
LW2x - *
 
Brazil has two boats with the second fastest time and thus must choose one of them. If they choose the LW2x boat the M1x quota will be reallocated to . If they choose the M1x boat the LW2x boat will be reallocated to and the LM2x boat that Peru would have qualified would have to be reallocated as there are no more eligible boats (basically a perfect storm occurred where all the other nations competing qualify somewhere else).
 

I constructed a simulation, but in rowing times can be quite different between heats due to each race having a different strategy. Additionally some rowers may be conserving strength and thus underperformed during the heats.
 
 
M1x - *
W1x -
LM2x -
LW2x - *
 
Brazil has two boats with the second fastest time and thus must choose one of them. If they choose the LW2x boat the M1x quota will be reallocated to . If they choose the M1x boat the LW2x boat will be reallocated to and the LM2x boat that Peru would have qualified would have to be reallocated as there are no more eligible boats (basically a perfect storm occurred where all the other nations competing qualify somewhere else).
 

I constructed a simulation, but in rowing times can be quite different between heats due to each race having a different strategy. Additionally some rowers may be conserving strength and thus underperformed during the heats.
 
 
M1x - *
W1x -
LM2x -
LW2x - *
 
Brazil has two boats with the second fastest time and thus must choose one of them. If they choose the LW2x boat the M1x quota will be reallocated to . If they choose the M1x boat the LW2x boat will be reallocated to and the LM2x boat that Peru would have qualified would have to be reallocated as there are no more eligible boats (basically a perfect storm occurred where all the other nations competing qualify somewhere else).
 

Three quotas will be awarded in the lightweight double sculls events

The depth in Asia is quite shallow, at the 2019 Worlds only China, Japan and Singapore competed. It was one of two Olympic events not to be held at the 2018 Asian Games (the other being Finn class)
 
Based on the results, Singapore has a very good chance at qualifying (they finished tied with the Chinese boat) so unless Liu and Lim are no longer competing it would be quite unfortunate for them to not make the trip to Shanghai.

One of the biggest obstacles is some nations wouldn't be eligible to participate in qualification, mostly due to being part of Great Britain and not having a recognized separate federation within certain sports.
 
The other issue of course is it would kill the participant rate of the smaller nations. Though that can be solved by giving every nation 15-20 quotas to use as they like (minus events where a set number of participants are required) and subtract one for every athlete qualified (not including team events)

South Africa has lowered their strict requirements for qualifying to the Olympics. If a team (or athlete) can show they are competitive then they will accept quotas won during continental qualifiers.
 
For field hockey, they likely used a provision in the qualification document that states nations must rank in the top 20 in order to be considered for a continental reallocation as an argument that the FIH considers a top 20 world ranking as competitive.
 
For water polo, their federation likely used South Africa's performance at the 2019 World Aquatics Championships where the men finished 12th and the women finished 14th as proof they are competitive (even though we all know the truth).
 
Sadly for women's rugby sevens they were unable to place a passable argument. The team failed to qualify as a core team for every world series during this Olympic cycle and the team finished 14th at the 2018 Sevens World Cup and unlike water polo, I imagine the South African Olympic Committee knows more about rugby sevens and whether or not that was a competitive performance.

What does politics have to do with anything? This is about sports. Should Denmark not be allowed to host the men's handball championships because they aren't as relevant politically, yet are one of the top nations in the sport?
 
I also don't mind Austria or Switzerland hosting the Winter Olympics because they too are quite relevant in winter sports. Similarly the Netherlands could host the Summer Olympics if it wants to. We are also talking about a 32 year gap, in different cities so I don't see quite the fuss.

A country finishing in the top 10 at every Summer Olympics since 1992 is irrelevant at the games?
 
Haha...

Actually looking at the qualification document, the quota will be reallocated to the highest ranked boat from an NOC not yet qualified at the World Championships. Only after none remains that a spot would open up at the final qualification event.

Couldn't they host a European qualifier in May like they are for Pan America?
 
I mean, if they are still cancelling events in May then it is highly likely the Olympics themselves will be cancelled.

With the exception of Croatia, Group B is looking to be quite even. You can make an argument for the five nations to rank in any order between 2-6.

Turkey forced to withdraw due to too many positive cases.
 
Canada got its win over Brazil, but Georgia gave Greece quite the scare, they were tied going into the final quarter and Greece only won by a single goal. Canada needs at a minimum to finish third in this group which means they need to defeat Georgia (or start beating Greece/Montenegro now rather than later).

I have a men's and women's single athlete qualifying for Azerbaijan.
Yeah, I was afraid that might happen in alpine (and cross-country) skiing. He's still listed as active on FIS which makes confirming status harder.
For Monaco I have one sled in 2-man and one sled in 4-man which gives four athletes since the driver is the same person.
 
It's about the same size as 2018 if you add in the women's ice hockey team.
 
Germany would also have the fourth largest team (behind US, Russia and Canada).

Here's my simulation of the number of athletes for each country. Note I did not take into account injuries (or people missing out due to COVID) and potential athletes that will reactivate themselves during the 2021-2022 season (since I have no information on them). In total 91 nations will participate. Let's see how far off I am in 2022.
 
Albania - 1
American Samoa - 1
Andorra - 5
Argentina - 9
Armenia - 4
Australia - 34
Austria - 110
Azerbaijan - 3
Belarus - 38
Belgium - 18
Bolivia - 2
Bosnia and Herzegovina - 5
Brazil - 8
Bulgaria - 15
Canada - 206
Cayman Islands - 1
Chile - 3
China - 167
Colombia - 1
Croatia - 9
Cyprus - 1
Czech Republic - 114
Denmark - 3
Ecuador - 2
Estonia - 26
Finland - 98
France - 97
Georgia - 7
Germany - 181
Great Britain - 62
Greece - 5
Haiti - 1
Hong Kong - 3
Hungary - 13
Iceland - 5
Iran - 4
Ireland - 4
Israel - 4
Italy - 129
Jamaica - 1
Japan - 134
Kazakhstan - 31
Kenya - 1
Kosovo - 1
Kyrgyzstan - 1
Latvia - 61
Lebanon - 3
Liechtenstein - 6
Lithuania - 12
Luxembourg
Madagascar - 1
Malaysia - 2
Malta - 1
Mexico - 2
Moldova - 5
Monaco - 6
Mongolia - 2
Montenegro - 3
Morocco - 1
Netherlands - 42
New Zealand - 16
Nigeria - 2
North Korea - 2
North Macedonia - 3
Norway - 115
Pakistan - 2
Peru - 2
Philippines - 1
Poland - 51
Portugal - 2
Puerto Rico - 1
Romania - 21
Russia - 209
San Marino - 1
Serbia - 5
Slovakia - 48
Slovenia - 45
South Africa - 1
South Korea - 69
Spain - 13
Sweden - 117
Switzerland - 178
Chinese Taipei - 3
Thailand - 4
Timor-Leste - 1
Trinidad and Tobago - 1
Turkey - 6
Ukraine - 41
United States - 219
Uzbekistan - 1
Virgin Islands - 1

Here's my simulation of the number of athletes for each country. Note I did not take into account injuries (or people missing out due to COVID) and potential athletes that will reactivate themselves during the 2021-2022 season (since I have no information on them). In total 91 nations will participate. Let's see how far off I am in 2022.
 
Albania - 1
American Samoa - 1
Andorra - 5
Argentina - 9
Armenia - 4
Australia - 34
Austria - 110
Azerbaijan - 3
Belarus - 38
Belgium - 18
Bolivia - 2
Bosnia and Herzegovina - 5
Brazil - 8
Bulgaria - 15
Canada - 206
Cayman Islands - 1
Chile - 3
China - 167
Colombia - 1
Croatia - 9
Cyprus - 1
Czech Republic - 114
Denmark - 3
Ecuador - 2
Estonia - 26
Finland - 98
France - 97
Georgia - 7
Germany - 181
Great Britain - 62
Greece - 5
Haiti - 1
Hong Kong - 3
Hungary - 13
Iceland - 5
Iran - 4
Ireland - 4
Israel - 4
Italy - 129
Jamaica - 1
Japan - 134
Kazakhstan - 31
Kenya - 1
Kosovo - 1
Kyrgyzstan - 1
Latvia - 61
Lebanon - 3
Liechtenstein - 6
Lithuania - 12
Luxembourg
Madagascar - 1
Malaysia - 2
Malta - 1
Mexico - 2
Moldova - 5
Monaco - 6
Mongolia - 2
Montenegro - 3
Morocco - 1
Netherlands - 42
New Zealand - 16
Nigeria - 2
North Korea - 2
North Macedonia - 3
Norway - 115
Pakistan - 2
Peru - 2
Philippines - 1
Poland - 51
Portugal - 2
Puerto Rico - 1
Romania - 21
Russia - 209
San Marino - 1
Serbia - 5
Slovakia - 48
Slovenia - 45
South Africa - 1
South Korea - 69
Spain - 13
Sweden - 117
Switzerland - 178
Chinese Taipei - 3
Thailand - 4
Timor-Leste - 1
Trinidad and Tobago - 1
Turkey - 6
Ukraine - 41
United States - 219
Uzbekistan - 1
Virgin Islands - 1

I mostly looked at recent results and compared it to the sport's qualification system. I didn't keep tabs on specific people since for some sports it's done through nation rankings (and the project was ambitious enough already). I also assumed every nation will accept all their quotas (which likely won't happen).
 
For Poland the sport breakdown is...
 
Alpine Skiing - 3
Biathlon - 8
Cross-country Skiing - 7
Figure Skating - 2
Luge - 4
Nordic Combined - 4
Short Track Speed Skating - 4
Ski Jumping - 7
Snowboarding - 3
Speed Skating - 9

Here's my simulation of the number of athletes for each country. Note I did not take into account injuries (or people missing out due to COVID) and potential athletes that will reactivate themselves during the 2021-2022 season (since I have no information on them). In total 91 nations will participate. Let's see how far off I am in 2022.
 
Albania - 1
American Samoa - 1
Andorra - 5
Argentina - 9
Armenia - 4
Australia - 34
Austria - 110
Azerbaijan - 3
Belarus - 38
Belgium - 18
Bolivia - 2
Bosnia and Herzegovina - 5
Brazil - 8
Bulgaria - 15
Canada - 206
Cayman Islands - 1
Chile - 3
China - 167
Colombia - 1
Croatia - 9
Cyprus - 1
Czech Republic - 114
Denmark - 3
Ecuador - 2
Estonia - 26
Finland - 98
France - 97
Georgia - 7
Germany - 181
Great Britain - 62
Greece - 5
Haiti - 1
Hong Kong - 3
Hungary - 13
Iceland - 5
Iran - 4
Ireland - 4
Israel - 4
Italy - 129
Jamaica - 1
Japan - 134
Kazakhstan - 31
Kenya - 1
Kosovo - 1
Kyrgyzstan - 1
Latvia - 61
Lebanon - 3
Liechtenstein - 6
Lithuania - 12
Luxembourg
Madagascar - 1
Malaysia - 2
Malta - 1
Mexico - 2
Moldova - 5
Monaco - 6
Mongolia - 2
Montenegro - 3
Morocco - 1
Netherlands - 42
New Zealand - 16
Nigeria - 2
North Korea - 2
North Macedonia - 3
Norway - 115
Pakistan - 2
Peru - 2
Philippines - 1
Poland - 51
Portugal - 2
Puerto Rico - 1
Romania - 21
Russia - 209
San Marino - 1
Serbia - 5
Slovakia - 48
Slovenia - 45
South Africa - 1
South Korea - 69
Spain - 13
Sweden - 117
Switzerland - 178
Chinese Taipei - 3
Thailand - 4
Timor-Leste - 1
Trinidad and Tobago - 1
Turkey - 6
Ukraine - 41
United States - 219
Uzbekistan - 1
Virgin Islands - 1

Here's my simulation of the number of athletes for each country. Note I did not take into account injuries (or people missing out due to COVID) and potential athletes that will reactivate themselves during the 2021-2022 season (since I have no information on them). In total 91 nations will participate. Let's see how far off I am in 2022.
 
Albania - 1
American Samoa - 1
Andorra - 5
Argentina - 9
Armenia - 4
Australia - 34
Austria - 110
Azerbaijan - 3
Belarus - 38
Belgium - 18
Bolivia - 2
Bosnia and Herzegovina - 5
Brazil - 8
Bulgaria - 15
Canada - 206
Cayman Islands - 1
Chile - 3
China - 167
Colombia - 1
Croatia - 9
Cyprus - 1
Czech Republic - 114
Denmark - 3
Ecuador - 2
Estonia - 26
Finland - 98
France - 97
Georgia - 7
Germany - 181
Great Britain - 62
Greece - 5
Haiti - 1
Hong Kong - 3
Hungary - 13
Iceland - 5
Iran - 4
Ireland - 4
Israel - 4
Italy - 129
Jamaica - 1
Japan - 134
Kazakhstan - 31
Kenya - 1
Kosovo - 1
Kyrgyzstan - 1
Latvia - 61
Lebanon - 3
Liechtenstein - 6
Lithuania - 12
Luxembourg
Madagascar - 1
Malaysia - 2
Malta - 1
Mexico - 2
Moldova - 5
Monaco - 6
Mongolia - 2
Montenegro - 3
Morocco - 1
Netherlands - 42
New Zealand - 16
Nigeria - 2
North Korea - 2
North Macedonia - 3
Norway - 115
Pakistan - 2
Peru - 2
Philippines - 1
Poland - 51
Portugal - 2
Puerto Rico - 1
Romania - 21
Russia - 209
San Marino - 1
Serbia - 5
Slovakia - 48
Slovenia - 45
South Africa - 1
South Korea - 69
Spain - 13
Sweden - 117
Switzerland - 178
Chinese Taipei - 3
Thailand - 4
Timor-Leste - 1
Trinidad and Tobago - 1
Turkey - 6
Ukraine - 41
United States - 219
Uzbekistan - 1
Virgin Islands - 1

Here's my simulation of the number of athletes for each country. Note I did not take into account injuries (or people missing out due to COVID) and potential athletes that will reactivate themselves during the 2021-2022 season (since I have no information on them). In total 91 nations will participate. Let's see how far off I am in 2022.
 
Albania - 1
American Samoa - 1
Andorra - 5
Argentina - 9
Armenia - 4
Australia - 34
Austria - 110
Azerbaijan - 3
Belarus - 38
Belgium - 18
Bolivia - 2
Bosnia and Herzegovina - 5
Brazil - 8
Bulgaria - 15
Canada - 206
Cayman Islands - 1
Chile - 3
China - 167
Colombia - 1
Croatia - 9
Cyprus - 1
Czech Republic - 114
Denmark - 3
Ecuador - 2
Estonia - 26
Finland - 98
France - 97
Georgia - 7
Germany - 181
Great Britain - 62
Greece - 5
Haiti - 1
Hong Kong - 3
Hungary - 13
Iceland - 5
Iran - 4
Ireland - 4
Israel - 4
Italy - 129
Jamaica - 1
Japan - 134
Kazakhstan - 31
Kenya - 1
Kosovo - 1
Kyrgyzstan - 1
Latvia - 61
Lebanon - 3
Liechtenstein - 6
Lithuania - 12
Luxembourg
Madagascar - 1
Malaysia - 2
Malta - 1
Mexico - 2
Moldova - 5
Monaco - 6
Mongolia - 2
Montenegro - 3
Morocco - 1
Netherlands - 42
New Zealand - 16
Nigeria - 2
North Korea - 2
North Macedonia - 3
Norway - 115
Pakistan - 2
Peru - 2
Philippines - 1
Poland - 51
Portugal - 2
Puerto Rico - 1
Romania - 21
Russia - 209
San Marino - 1
Serbia - 5
Slovakia - 48
Slovenia - 45
South Africa - 1
South Korea - 69
Spain - 13
Sweden - 117
Switzerland - 178
Chinese Taipei - 3
Thailand - 4
Timor-Leste - 1
Trinidad and Tobago - 1
Turkey - 6
Ukraine - 41
United States - 219
Uzbekistan - 1
Virgin Islands - 1

The stadium capacities are another big issue. If the IOC was willing to halve the stadium size my metro area would be able to host the Olympics with only needing to build sport specific stadiums. If they want more ticket sales they could always install viewing areas or even theaters.

With South Africa deciding to take the African quota for the first time ever the final qualification tournament has become as tough as ever for the European nations despite there being two extra teams at the Olympics this year. I guess it's slightly easier with no Canada, but still two good teams will miss out.

Hey, how is everyone doing. It's been a while and it seems a lot has changed since I've last been here.

Hey, how is everyone doing. It's been a while and it seems a lot has changed since I've last been here.

Hey, how is everyone doing. It's been a while and it seems a lot has changed since I've last been here.