JoshMartini007

Yeah, for Oceania you have sports where Australia/New Zealand are really weak (boxing, weightlifting) or ones where they are strong enough to not need the continental quotas (canoeing, sailing)

It's not (who I thought it would be), she finished 3rd.

As far as I know it isn't a new nation, so one of the nations which already won a quota (except Nigeria)

C1 1000m, which means no quota for .

Probably not, to be eligible for the tripartite quota you must qualify to the World Qualifier Series and finish in the top 36 for combined and top 24 for speed. It is very likely the tripartite quotas will be reallocated.

Looks like there are some restrictions: There can be a maximum of two European teams in each group and not more than three European teams in each tournament. There can be a maximum of one Americas team per group. There can be a maximum of one team from Asia and Oceania in each tournament. There can be a maximum of one team from Africa into each tournament. Some fun quirks due to the restrictions. can not be in the same tournament meaning Mexico will be the Pan American nation which doubles up. can not be in the same tournament due to keeping Asian & African teams separate.

Then they couldn't get another nation to host 2025

There haven't been any continental restrictions in the past. Unlike the women, there is already representation in each continent. Also in 2020 teams were seeded by world ranking, including the hosts. The only restriction is hosts couldn't be in the same group for obvious reasons.

Currently that is what it looks like.

I imagine the Pot 1 teams are dreaming of a & Play-Off C group. Though I get the feeling will be in the same group.

For every athlete per gender qualified through the rankings, France will see a decrease in its host quotas. Currently, France has athletes in world ranking qualifying positions in women's -67kg and +67kg. They will qualify through the rankings and the host quotas will be reallocated as tripartite quotas. This also means unless there's a last minute shuffle in the rankings the men's -58kg and -68kg will not award tripartite quotas.

Looking at New Zealand's internal criteria, it is likely they will decline the quotas obtained either here or at the Oceania qualifier so that opens up a chance for a Pacific nation to qualify, possibly Fiji or Palau. Of course, New Zealand would have decline before the final qualification tournament for it to be reallocated to Oceania.

Quite the group for the final qualifier. Loving the depth in rugby sevens. As much as I would like to see another upset it is hard to see or not winning the final spot.

Samoa is pretty weak in women's rugby sevens, to the point where they could realistically finish last in the final qualifier. is a better Pacific nation and that's not saying much either. Predicting rugby sevens is a fool's game, but I can use a laugh in a few months Let's see how far off I am...

(and ) could upset, but they will probably have to defeat two or maybe all three of to get the quota so chances are low.

The opportunity is there for Poland and they couldn't have asked for a better scenario. Not only did all the favourites manage to qualify directly to the Olympics, both Spain and Belgium failed to qualify here thanks to Czechia's performance at the European Games. No disrespect to Czechia as they have a similar golden opportunity and could take the quota themselves. China is the slight favourite going in, but the quota is definitely winnable for the European nations.

Samoa is one of the weakest entrants in the tournament. The quota will be between Poland, Czechia and China

Which means no quotas were awarded to Asia.

As a reminder, this event is a qualifier in archery (1 mixed team, 1 individual) and boxing (winner of each event) Australia and New Zealand will grab most of the quotas. New Zealand sometimes declines archery quotas so there's still an opportunity for a Pacific nation to qualify via reallocation. For boxing, we could see some Pacific nations walk away with gold, most likely Samoa's Ato Plodzicki-Faoagali

I've been keeping an eye on her for a while. I'm glad she's reached the cut, now she just needs to maintain her ranking. Another triathlete to watch is Margot Garabedian, she recently switched from France to Cambodia. She is currently ranked 177 and will likely go for one of the tripartite quotas. As long as she stays above 180 she will likely get it, there are two tripartite quotas available and the only other eligible athlete without a quota is Erica Hawley and I'm not 100% sure they want to give Bermuda a second quota since Flora Duffy will likely qualify naturally.

Yeah, whoever did it forgot to take into account that in time trials two nations from each continent must be present.

It's just another example of sport struggling, post-Covid/inflation. Before sport federations would join tournaments without securing funding expecting to get the money needed (either through investors, government or the players). Now they are finding out those sources are less likely to fund their trip, especially for Division III/IV teams which have no chance at qualifying to the Olympics.

Outside of athletics/swimming, the next best (unlikely) bet would be the African Sprint Canoeing Championships. Everything else would be quite a surprise. Maybe boxing at the Pacific Games or the African or Oceania sailing qualifiers.

We are down to 70 unqualified nations remaining. I've updated all nations and sports, adding/removing potential events. Let me know if I missed anything. Since most nations remaining are tripartite eligible (everyone except ) many of the predicted options rely on winning one of those quotas. Here's the breakdown by how many nations have a chance in each sport. Athletics - 63 Swimming - 61 Judo - 40 Boxing - 22 Weightlifting - 22 Taekwondo - 20 Shooting - 13 Canoeing - 11 Badminton - 10 Rowing - 8 Sailing - 8 Table Tennis - 8 Archery - 7 Tennis - 7 Wrestling - 7 Gymnastics - 5 Fencing - 4 Football - 4 Surfing - 4 Cycling - 3 Handball - 3 Basketball - 2 Equestrian - 2 Rugby Sevens - 2 Triathlon - 2 Artistic Swimming - 1 Golf - 1 Volleyball - 1 Water Polo - 1 Breaking - 0 Diving - 0 Field Hockey - 0 Modern Pentathlon - 0 Skateboarding - 0 Sport Climbing - 0 Unsurprisingly, athletics and swimming tops the list. Judo being third was expected. It is the easiest sport for a nation to qualify after athletics/swimming. Shooting being a bit low on the list despite having so many tripartite quotas likely means either many quotas will be reallocated or ISSF may change the rules and allow nations with no ranking points to be given the quota. Boxing, taekwondo and weightlifting are popular sports with some nations having a chance to qualify normally. Unfortunately a large set of nations will be left with nothing. On the low end six sports do not have any nations with a chance to qualify, most of which have tripartite quotas that will likely go unrewarded.

Team sports don't count for tripartite eligibility.