I suspect with the host nation boost, Chile will be competing with the likes of Argentina, Colombia and Cuba. If not, they should still finish solidly in the top 10.
While swimming appears to be a diverse sport given that most nations compete in it, in reality only a handful of nations excel in it. Currently only 5/45 (11%) of medals were won by non-USA/Brazil/Canada nations. In 2019, it was 21/114 (18%) and Argentina accounted for 10 of them. So unless you are planning to compete with Brazil/Canada you don't really need a good swim team to excel.