[OFF TOPIC] Politics Thread

[Olympian1010 7,483]

18 minutes ago, Monzanator said:

Democrats have lost the blue collar workers. It's as simple as that  It's very unfashionable to look after those people in modern politics and social media trends and guess even four years of Trump hasn't learned them anything.

That’s only part of the reason. It’s honestly a little hard to pinpoint one reason, since we’ve seen such dynamic demographic shifts over the last few election cycles.

 

Two big things are:

 

One: People aren’t enthusiastic for Biden. We eliminated the candidates most people were enthusiastic about, so that the moderates could have party control and Biden as a candidate. People are mainly only voting for Biden because they don’t want Trump. That’s not the greatest selling point for a candidate to have. People have made the analogy that this election is like being asked to choose between spoiled milk and arsenic, that’s not great.

 

Two: Trump has gained support amongst African Americans. Trump won a laughable 8% of the African American vote in 2016. Right now, he polls at 19%. I don’t know why that support has gone up, especially since Biden was basically elected as a candidate by the African American vote, but it has.

[Monzanator 3,600]

8 minutes ago, Olympian1010 said:

That’s only part of the reason. It’s honestly a little hard to pinpoint one reason, since we’ve seen such dynamic demographic shifts over the last few election cycles.

 

Two big things are:

 

One: People aren’t enthusiastic for Biden. We eliminated the candidates most people were enthusiastic about, so that the moderates could have party control and Biden as a candidate. People are mainly only voting for Biden because they don’t want Trump. That’s not the greatest selling point for a candidate to have. People have made the analogy that this election is like being asked to choose between spoiled milk and arsenic, that’s not great.

 

Two: Trump has gained support amongst African Americans. Trump won a laughable 8% of the African American vote in 2016. Right now, he polls at 19%. I don’t know why that support has gone up, especially since Biden was basically elected as a candidate by the African American vote, but it has.

I presume a lot of African Americans classify as the blue collars though and here's the Trump mystery addition. Democrats have lost the Deep South in last few elections anyway and I guess that's not entirely down to African-Americans moving to other states compared to 60s or 70s.

 

Democrats are fielding an old white guy to compete vs another old white guy. And Biden is actually older than Trump. Post WWII Democrats have done well when they fielded a younger hansdome guy like Kennedy, Clinton or Obama.

[Olympian1010 7,483]

A fun little explanation of the unique situation Belgium finds themselves in.

 

[Monzanator 3,600]

This isn't exactly unique. I lost count how many times the Wallons and Flemish were at odds over political reasons in Belgium in the last decade alone. No wonder democracy is a hard sell these days if the backbone country of European Union can't find an agreement

 

Ten years ago Belgium wasted "only" 541 days without a government

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007–2011_Belgian_political_crisis

[Federer91 2,140]

I read a while ago a very good article on why the Democrats have lost the working class, blue-collar America. That's more or less, because they have become the elitist party of California and New York and have forgotten the rest of the country.

 

When the forefront of your campaign is climate change, "transgender bathrooms" (article quote) and constant scandals about different agendas, while the GOP is giving you jobs, trade deals, security and some plan for the future, then it's no surprise how the working class person is leaning. Also there is this feeling that Democrats look down on the ordinary persons problems and always have this grandeur program of things, that again only people in California and New York care. It's not that different on how people from those states usually look down on people from the smaller (not so fancy) states. 

 

The rust belt numbers for Biden have been dropping fast and this is even before the debates and Trump mobilization units. This could very well be even an easier win, than in 2016.  

[dcro 10,182]

Trump currently stands to lose PA, MI and WI. I doubt he could win without these.

[Olympian1010 7,483]

18 minutes ago, Federer91 said:

I read a while ago a very good article on why the Democrats have lost the working class, blue-collar America. That's more or less, because they have become the elitist party of California and New York and have forgotten the rest of the country.

Yep, this is absolutely true. Easily one of the biggest reasons I have refused to endorse or join the Democratic Party.
 

Also, the party is much more divided than the Republican Party. The Democratic Party is split between Moderates, Liberal Elites, Liberal Working Class, Democratic-Socialists, and other Far-Left groups. The Republican Party is Conservatives and Far-Right Conservatives, and they generally tend to be a united front against anything progressive, liberal, or against Christian religion. The Democratic Party isn’t so much a party, as much as, a lose collection of everyone not Republican. It has a serious identity crisis they we continue to see play out as moderates and progressives battle tooth and nail against each other in hotly contested primaries and party elections.

 

26 minutes ago, Federer91 said:

When the forefront of your campaign is climate change, "transgender bathrooms" (article quote) and constant scandals about different agendas, while the GOP is giving you (the perception) of jobs, trade deals, security and some plan for the future, then it's no surprise how the working class person is leaning. Also there is this feeling that Democrats look down on the ordinary persons problems and always have this grandeur program of things, that again only people in California and New York care. It's not that different on how people from those states usually look down on people from the smaller (not so fancy) states.  

This is also true. Californians (speaking as one) and New Yorkers very much view themselves as better than most of the other states. In fact, we have a biter rivalry with New York for this reason. This does lie at odds with our core social beliefs, and it’s an interesting phenomenon.

 

The GOP isn’t giving people shit, but they are great a showing what the Democrats aren’t giving people. Plus, like I said above, they stand as a strong, united front, and voters like that.

[Olympian1010 7,483]

16 minutes ago, dcro said:

Trump currently stands to lose PA, MI and WI. I doubt he could win without these.

Either way, the election is really a lot closer than it should be. This just shows what a massive failure the Democratic Party is at the moment.

[Federer91 2,140]

33 minutes ago, dcro said:

Trump currently stands to lose PA, MI and WI. I doubt he could win without these.

Sure, but this doesn't show the silent majority that gave Trump the win in 2016. Those people don't take polls, or are afraid to say they'd vote for Trump. 

 

The numbers are closer than they were in 2016, even without those people, so i think Trump still has the upper hand there.

[dcro 10,182]

20 minutes ago, Federer91 said:

Sure, but this doesn't show the silent majority that gave Trump the win in 2016. Those people don't take polls, or are afraid to say they'd vote for Trump. 

 

The numbers are closer than they were in 2016, even without those people, so i think Trump still has the upper hand there.

While I agree with this, it's important to remember that Trump won those states by a miniscule margin in 2016. That's largely why I don't expect them to flip back by default.