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Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024 Medal Predictions


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1 hour ago, Federer91 said:

Usually 7-8 golds are enough for top 10 in the medal table, but with Russia having almost no participation, the threshold could rise to 10 golds. 

Perhaps, but there's a considerable drop from the top 9. The tenth rank nation could have 10+ fewer total medals than the 9th rank. Unless they get lucky with golds they will struggle to break double digits.

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3 hours ago, mpjmcevoy said:

My bad!! Tony Roberts. Climber

 

Yeah I wouldn't have got that any time soon - and unfortunately now all I keep hearing in my mind is the guy from Only Fools and Horses shouting "Gary!" :wall:(That reference will mean nothing to a lot of international posters)

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8 hours ago, TeamGB said:

@Rafa Maciel Do you know where to find the specific medal breakdown?

I remember that for the previous Olympics it was possible to see the details of the medals for each discipline so idk why now, gracenote doesnt publish it...

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  • 1 month later...

Was so distracted by random boxing federation Facebook pages that I missed the latest update to the Gracenote prediction.

 

:IOC Nielsen's Gracenote Virtual Medal Table - February 2024 :IOC

 

 

 

NOC Gold Silver Bronze Total Change Since Last Release
:USA 37 37 47 121 Drops 8 medals in total with 9 fewer silver medals being offset by 1 additional bronze. At 121, this is the lowest number of medals projected since the table was initiated.
:CHN 37 28 22 85 No change in the total number of medals but it does include 2 additional gold medals. 
:FRA 27 14 11 52 Down 1 medal overall but Gold increase by 1
:NED 17 9 13 39 An increase of 4 medals in total including 1 gold and 3 Bronze medals. Sees NED moving up to 4th in the table from 6th last month.
:GBR 16 24 25 65 Up 1 medal overall but total number of Gold drops by 1 which is offset by 2 additional Silver medals. 
:JPN 15 17 24 53 Drops 3 medals overall as few bronze medals are won. 2 Golds are downgraded to Silver.
:ITA 14 16 17 47 No change in the overall number of medals but team projected to win 1 additional Gold and 4 Silver.
:GER 9 15 19 43 Gains 4 medals in total but 1 Gold is downgraded to Silver. 
:BRA 9 2 7 18 Small overall volume (would be ranked 13th by volume) moves into the top 10 by virtue of the fact that half of their projected medals are Gold
:AUS 8 21 17 46 The biggest shift in the projection this month - although the overall total is down just 2, It's 7 fewer Golds with 4 downgraded to Silver.  

 

Huge caveat here - I think it is safe to assume that the projection has been heavily impacted by the results of the Doha World Aquatic Championships hence the big drop in the :AUS Gold volume which is unlikely to be the case when we get to Paris. 

 

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17 minutes ago, Rafa Maciel said:

Was so distracted by random boxing federation Facebook pages that I missed the latest update to the Gracenote prediction.

 

:IOC Nielsen's Gracenote Virtual Medal Table - February 2024 :IOC

 

 

 

NOC Gold Silver Bronze Total Change Since Last Release
:USA 37 37 47 121 Drops 8 medals in total with 9 fewer silver medals being offset by 1 additional bronze. At 121, this is the lowest number of medals projected since the table was initiated.
:CHN 37 28 22 85 No change in the total number of medals but it does include 2 additional gold medals. 
:FRA 27 14 11 52 Down 1 medal overall but Gold increase by 1
:NED 17 9 13 39 An increase of 4 medals in total including 1 gold and 3 Bronze medals. Sees NED moving up to 4th in the table from 6th last month.
:GBR 16 24 25 65 Up 1 medal overall but total number of Gold drops by 1 which is offset by 2 additional Silver medals. 
:JPN 15 17 24 53 Drops 3 medals overall as few bronze medals are won. 2 Golds are downgraded to Silver.
:ITA 14 16 17 47 No change in the overall number of medals but team projected to win 1 additional Gold and 4 Silver.
:GER 9 15 19 43 Gains 4 medals in total but 1 Gold is downgraded to Silver. 
:BRA 9 2 7 18 Small overall volume (would be ranked 13th by volume) moves into the top 10 by virtue of the fact that half of their projected medals are Gold
:AUS 8 21 17 46 The biggest shift in the projection this month - although the overall total is down just 2, It's 7 fewer Golds with 4 downgraded to Silver.  

 

Huge caveat here - I think it is safe to assume that the projection has been heavily impacted by the results of the Doha World Aquatic Championships hence the big drop in the :AUS Gold volume which is unlikely to be the case when we get to Paris. 

 

At the moment i think Brazil gonna win onle one or two Gold medals, our chance. We have a lot of good shots for medals, but no one of them (maybe surdina?) looks favourite for a Gold medal.

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24 minutes ago, Rafa Maciel said:

Was so distracted by random boxing federation Facebook pages that I missed the latest update to the Gracenote prediction.

 

:IOC Nielsen's Gracenote Virtual Medal Table - February 2024 :IOC

 

 

 

NOC Gold Silver Bronze Total Change Since Last Release
:USA 37 37 47 121 Drops 8 medals in total with 9 fewer silver medals being offset by 1 additional bronze. At 121, this is the lowest number of medals projected since the table was initiated.
:CHN 37 28 22 85 No change in the total number of medals but it does include 2 additional gold medals. 
:FRA 27 14 11 52 Down 1 medal overall but Gold increase by 1
:NED 17 9 13 39 An increase of 4 medals in total including 1 gold and 3 Bronze medals. Sees NED moving up to 4th in the table from 6th last month.
:GBR 16 24 25 65 Up 1 medal overall but total number of Gold drops by 1 which is offset by 2 additional Silver medals. 
:JPN 15 17 24 53 Drops 3 medals overall as few bronze medals are won. 2 Golds are downgraded to Silver.
:ITA 14 16 17 47 No change in the overall number of medals but team projected to win 1 additional Gold and 4 Silver.
:GER 9 15 19 43 Gains 4 medals in total but 1 Gold is downgraded to Silver. 
:BRA 9 2 7 18 Small overall volume (would be ranked 13th by volume) moves into the top 10 by virtue of the fact that half of their projected medals are Gold
:AUS 8 21 17 46 The biggest shift in the projection this month - although the overall total is down just 2, It's 7 fewer Golds with 4 downgraded to Silver.  

 

Huge caveat here - I think it is safe to assume that the projection has been heavily impacted by the results of the Doha World Aquatic Championships hence the big drop in the :AUS Gold volume which is unlikely to be the case when we get to Paris. 

 

:CAN is only projected to finish with 4 golds and 20 total, but I’m assuming it’s also because of the inflated results of the Doha World Aquatic Championships. 

Edited by Josh
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On 2/1/2024 at 1:41 AM, Rafa Maciel said:

Gracenote's gold medal projections for :NZL seem uncontroversial (although the keirin is always a bit of a lottery):

 

Men's Rugby 7's Team

Women's Rugby 7's Team

Women's Keirin: Ellesse Andrews

Canoe Sprint - Women's K1 500m: Lisa Carrington

 

 

I doubt the NZ Mens 7s team will be winning gold or even medalling. But I can however see Lisa Carrington contributing to 3 gold medals however.

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3 minutes ago, Joshi said:

I doubt the NZ Mens 7s team will be winning gold or even medalling. But I can however see Lisa Carrington contributing to 3 gold medals however.

I'd be surprised if they didn't medal - they won 5 of the HSBC 7's events in the '22/'23 season (which I assume was the results used for Gracenote's prediction). Granted their form hasn't been as dominant this season, but they have still managed to medal in 2 out of the 5 rounds so far. 

 

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51 minutes ago, LuizGuilherme said:

At the moment i think Brazil gonna win onle one or two Gold medals, our chance. We have a lot of good shots for medals, but no one of them (maybe surdina?) looks favourite for a Gold medal.

I agree but I hope for at least 4 gold medals, which would be better than the 3 of 2008/2012. No way we can repeat the 7 golds of 2016/2020.

 

Don't know what names/teams Gracenote is predicting for gold but maybe they were considering another one in Football which won't happen since the team didn't even qualify. Rebeca will only win a gold if Biles somehow fails in Vault. Isaquias, Ana Marcela, Martine/Kahena are not as regular as before and probably will contend for bronze. I guess Beach Volleyball/Surfing/Skateboarding are our best chances but nothing too sure. Maybe another surprising gold in Boxing or even Judo?

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  • 5 weeks later...

With the :GBR Swimming Champs done, I've got time to look at some of the reporting ahead of the Olympics as media outlets begin to consider medal prospects.

 

These are the predicted athletics medalists (track only) from Pulse Sports - a Kenyan media outlet. Please don't shoot the messenger - this isn't an endorsement of their prediction. I share it purely for information and discussion.

 

Men's 100m:

:USA Noah Lyles

:KEN Ferdinand Omanyala

:BOT Letsile Tebogo

 

Men's 200m:

:USA Noah Lyles

:BOT Letsile Tebogo

:GBR Zharnel Hughes

 

Men's 400m:

:BAH Steven Gardiner

:JAM Antonio Watson

:ZAM Muzala Samukonga

 

Men's 800m:

:KEN Emmanuel Wanyonyi

:CAN Marco Arop

:KEN Emmanuel Korir

 

Men's 1500m:

:NOR Jakob Ingebrigtsen

:GBR Josh Kerr

:USA Yared Nuguse

 

Men's 5000m:

:NOR Jakob Ingebrigtsen

:KEN Jacob Krop

:ETH Yomif Kejelcha

 

Men's 10000m:

:UGA Joshua Cheptegei

:UGA Jacob Kiplimo

:KEN Daniel Simiu

 

Men's 3000m Steeple:

:MAR Soufiane El Bakkali

:ETH Lamecha Girma

:KEN Simon Koech

 

Men's 110m Hurdles:

:USA Grant Holloway

:JAM Hansle Parchment

:JAM Rasheed Broadbell

 

Men's 400m Hurdles:

:NOR Karsten Warholm

:USA Rai Benjamin

:BRA Alison Dos Santos

 

Men's Marathon:

:KEN Benson Kipruto

:ETH Sisay Lemma

:KEN Eliud Kipchoge

 

 

 

Women's 100m:

:USA Sha'Carri Richardson

:JAM Elaine Thompson-Herah

:JAM Shelly-Anne Fraser-Pryce

 

Women's 200m:

:JAM Shericka Jackson

:JAM Elaine Thompson-Herah

:USA Gabby Thomas

 

Women's 400m:

:BAH Shaunae Miller-Uibo

:DOM Marileidy Paulino

:BRN Salwa Eid Naser

 

Women's 800m:

:KEN Mary Moraa

:USA Aithing Mu

:GBR Keely Hodgkinson

 

Women's 1500m:

:KEN Faith Kipyegon

:ETH 

:ETH 

 

Women's 5000m:

:KEN Faith Kipyegon

:KEN Beatrice Chebet

:ETH Letesenbet Gidey

 

Women's 10000m:

:ETH Gudaf Tsegay

:ETH Letesenbet Gidey

:NED Sifan Hassan

 

Women's 3000m Steeple:

:KEN Beatrice Chepkoech

:BRN Winifred Yavi

:KEN Faith Cherotich

 

Men's 110m Hurdles:

:NGR Tobi Amusan

:BAH Deveyne Charlton

:FRA Cyrena Samba-Mayela

 

Men's 400m Hurdles:

:NED Femke Bol

:USA Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone

:JAM Rushell Clayton

 

Women's Marathon:

:ETH Tigst Assefa

:KEN Peres Jepchirchir

:ETH Amane Beriso

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