Early Qualification Predictions for your Nation at the Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024

[hckošice 14,792]

So 2 years to go. All qualification documents are basically confirmed, so

 

Let´s try that game and see in July 2024 how much wrong I was

 

 

Archery: Hopefully we will qualify again a female to the W Individual Recurve (one of Denisa Barániková/Alexandra Longová) I do believe it is in our strength to earn that individual quota - 1

Artistic Swimming: Maybe if all planets align there would be a slim chance for an upset and qualifying a duet, but right now I give it a very small chance to happen... - 0

Athletics: The current WCh in USA are extremely worrying, We send only 5 athletes (only 1 track & field and 4 race walking rookies/juniors) after the retirement of our best athlete since the independence Matej Tóth, there basically anyone behind to took the relay, However there still a couple of athletes who had to decline the Worlds because of injury and should be able to qualify for Paris (some more or less easily, other with a lot of luck throught the rankings), so let´s goal all in and predict - Volko (100 & 200), one of the guys in 400, Veszelka (Triple Jump), Lomnický (Hammer), 1 or 2 guys in Race Walk among boys and our rising young star Viki Forster (in atleast one of her 100, 200 or 100H), Emma Zapletalová (400H + maybe also Ledecká via ranking), Škvarková (100H), Hrašnová to end her career at the Olympics in Hammer Throw and Czaková (who just returned to training from maternity leave and want qualify to Paris in W Race Walk) so a VERY optimistic prediction if everything will work suddenly for us - 10

Badminton: Martina Repiská was in Tokyo and even won a match as the first ever slovak in this sport under the five rings, not sure if she will be able to repeat it, Obviously I hope so, but I do not think she will qualify this time - 0

Basketball: Our Women team sadly is not as strong anymore to be able to fight for the few european tickets,

The Men team can qualify for the Olympics only when IOC and FIBA will organize a 206 nations Olympic Tournament  - 0 

Beach Volleyball: After the disappointement of the postponing Tokyo in 2020 our best pair Dubovcová/Nestracová decided to split and did not return back since then - 0

Boxing: Andrej "Bandi" Csemez in the 75 or 81 and Viliam Tankó in the flyweight are likely our only chances to qualify, Bandi was in Tokyo where Slovakia returned to Olympics Boxing after 25 years, would be awesome if we can start a new streak by qualifying again, hopefully at least 1 of them will do it, if both of them, would be fantastic - 1

 

Breaking: Hilarious - 0

Canoeing - Slalom: Full team or riots - 6

Canoeing - Sprint: The Male K4-500 squad once the 5 guys will stop to act and fights between themselves like in a kindergarten for the places in a boat should qualify without much troubles, Hopefully we will also have a female representative this time (Lisa Maria Gamsjäger and maybe even a female K2 is not so unrealistic) Not many chances sadly in the C events, I go with 7 (five in M K and 2 in W K) - 7

Cycling - BMX: Under or very close to 0 % chance to qualify here - 0

Cycling - Mountain Bike: Another huge disappointement in Tokyo, our athlete lost the quota in the very last race (Damn you Dascalu !), Hopefully this time we will be more lucky, but as I know ourselves it will be at the end just a big - Zero

Cycling - Road: No idea, Maybe Peter Sagan will have one final dance in Paris road race if he will hang around for another 2 years, but even if he will, I do not see how we will qualify more than 1 place here - 1

Cycling - Track: Pavlendová is still here but she will need something like a miracle to fullfil her dream to be at the Olympics at least once in her career. The rest is too weak, so Probably - 0

Diving: We have one American girl from Seattle with slovak origins who tried at the European champs in 2019 but finished dead last. She is actually our sole registered athlete in this sport btw... but, I have not heard any news about her since there - 0

Equestrian: Bugan with a lot of luck and declined quotas can earn a unbelievable quota in dressage, but will require a lot of luck and hopefully a better work with eventual horse country change documents - 0

Fencing: There a higher chance I will be the new pope than to see a slovak fencer at the Olympics in this century - 0

Field Hockey: I can already picture all the trash in medias from slovak casual fans that the reigning bronze medalists from Beijing are not qualified until they will realize the existence of this summer version of the sport  - 0

Football: Only 4 spots for M, that would need more than a christmas miracle to qualify, even if our U21 is still in the play-offs for the Euro, so hope dies last - 0

Golf: The "boy from Bratislava" Rory Sabattini already announced his desire to qualify for Paris and end his career there with maybe another shocking medal, he should qualify I believe, but surely he´ll not medal again, let be realistic, such things if happens, then only once in a life - 1

Gymnastics - Artistic: Barbora Mokošová again our only hope to qualify, Hopefully she will manage to reach it, anyway it is far from being a sure thing - 1

Gymnastics - Rhythmic: Not in this millenium - 0

Gymnastics - Trampoline: Actually we have no registered competitors in this - 0

Handball: No chance for W even smaller for M - 0

Judo: The dream is still alive to have a Judoka at the Olympics, did not happen since the 1st round elimination of Matej Randl in London -90kg. We will surely try and maybe with a dose of luck someone will make it, but realistically, we will have to wait again another 4 years - 0

Modern Pentathlon: I heard somewhere we have two athletes in this, but they are Too weak to even consider play for the qualification - 0

Rowing: Our federation disbanded the entire national team last year because of very poor results, including the juniors, so no one - 0

Rugby Sevens: I have a feeling that even our basketball team is better, so to say - 0

Sailing: we have no sea   - 0

Shooting: Hopefully 5 at least, Zuzana Rehák Štefečeková to defend her W Trap title, maybe also another girl will join her, Erik Varga with a last appearance in M Trap, maybe another guy to join him, Danka Barteková our IOC member in W Skeet, Juraj Tužinský should also qualify in M Air Pistol and finally

Patrik Jány the new rising star of the M Rifle events will be probably one of our major medal chances in Paris, Hopefully. So anthing from 5 to 7, 8 would be good, less than 5 a disaster - 7

Skateboarding: Richard Tury will at his late 30s as a real grandpa in this sport make another last try to qualify for the M Street, he ended very unlucky being the first non-qualified for Tokyo - 0

Sport Climbing: A couple of youngsters trying here and there but without real chances. Will never understand it btw, coming from a 80% mountainous country it is just amazing that we do not have at least one decent lever climber - 0

Surfing: The only Olympic sport we do not have even a registered federation - 0

Swimming: I assume none of our swimmers is capable to achive the required qualifying marks, so it will be just the mandatory 2 universality places, most likely for one of Richard Nagy/Tomáš Klobučník or Adam Halas among men and one of Nikoleta Trníková/Andrea Podmaníková or Karolína Hájková among women - 2

Table Tennis: I do believe we will again qualify 3 and again the same athletes (Wang Yang MS, Ľubomír Pištej and Barbora Balážová WS and XD), at least they should do - 3

Taekwondo: No chances, we have a couple of promising juniors, but still too weak at international level - 0

Tennis: Always a lottery but if we will get rid of Zika, Covid, high taxes, big traffic on the roads and all similar insurmountable obstacles for a top tennis player we should have a couple of players on the Rolland Garros courts, Alex Molčan as a clay specialist may be our distant chance, maybe another gentlemen will join him (Gombos or Martin) and who knows where will be our Doubles specialist Polášek in 2 years, hopefully also at least one of our female players, Kužmová, Kučová or Schmiedlová will be there as well - 4 

Triathlon: After the scandalous Tokyo qualifications, I surely hope this time WT will handle the system better, Richard Varga hopefully will qualify for another games and among women we do have one serious youth talent Margareta Vráblová, maybe Paris will be too early for her, but you seriously should keep an eye on this girl, we may hear a lot about her in the future - 2

Volleyball: Both our teams are in the better middle sides of European Volleyball ranks but sadly it is still too far from the Olympic qualifying level - 0

Water Polo: Both our teams will surely fight, we may even reach the final qualifiers, but we will lose and stay at home.

The heart and will is definitely here, but the pool depth is just too small. What is enough for a 12th-16th place at M European Champs is sadly not enough at all for a 12 team Olympics tournament. Same apply more or less for Women, the general difference is too big among the Olympic 5-7 European contenders and the rest of contenders including Slovakia. - 0

Weightlifting: Would require a lot of luck and favorable things to qualify someone, but I doubt it. Maybe Nikola Seničová with a slim chance - 0

Wrestling: who would have thought that wrestling could be our strongest sport at the Olympics.

Our wrestling federation started silently a bit of an ambitious project a couple of years ago to qualify 3-4 athletes to Paris 2024 and win there 1 medal !

What sounded like a hilarious and impossible dream is now not so absurd anymore.

Tajmuraz Salkazanov should if there a justice in this world experience his olympic debut in Paris and ..oh ! god know, that he is not without a chance to make something absolutely interesting there at all. Akhsarbek Gulaev, Boris Makoev and the newest addition to the contingent Batyrbek Tsakulov can also fight for the qualifiaction, among women we also have another prospect, this time, a Hungarian naturalized wrestler Zsuzsanna Molnár who can also with a bit of luck wrestle on the Paris mat - 3


Total Sports: 14

Optimistic Total Athletes: Above 50

Realistic Total Athletes: anything between 40-50 is basically realistic, In my predictions I counted  49 which would be great, however ending 1 short of 50 would be also a bit frustrating I guess

Pessimistic Total Athletes: Under 40

[OlympicsFan 858]

No idea how many athletes Germany will send exactly, But My prediction is that it will be more than in 2021, thanks to Team sports. I think there is a Good chance that Germany will Qualify in mens football, womens Football and at least one out of mens Handball/mens basketball (and mens/womens hockey). 
 

In Terms of medals i don’t Expect any improvements. I think the negative Trend will continue and Germany will win roughly 35 medals. For Germany to win more medals again, the officials and politicians would need to wake up and finally create a more efficient system (by learning from other countries).

[Benolympique 2,398]

30 minutes ago, OlympicsFan said:

No idea how many athletes Germany will send exactly, But My prediction is that it will be more than in 2021, thanks to Team sports. I think there is a Good chance that Germany will Qualify in mens football, womens Football and at least one out of mens Handball/mens basketball (and mens/womens hockey). 
 

In Terms of medals i don’t Expect any improvements. I think the negative Trend will continue and Germany will win roughly 35 medals. For Germany to win more medals again, the officials and politicians would need to wake up and finally create a more efficient system (by learning from other countries).

volley and hand womens ?

[LDOG 2,418]

Archery: 0-1.

Maybe yes, maybe not.

 

Artistic Swimming: 0

 

Athletics: 5-9.

Mostly in marathons for token participation. Other than that some field events like Shot put or pole vault. 

 

Badminton: 0

Argentina has never qualified in this sport, not going to change this time.

 

Basketball: 0-12.

It will be very tough to qualify this time if all the opponents use their best players. 

 

Beach volleyball: 2-4.

Men and women through continental quotas, the men could fail though.

 

Boxing: 2-4.

Always we sneak in some people.

 

Breaking: 0

 

Canoeing sprint: 2-4.

Men's K1-1000 for sure, maybe the K2 as well, maybe some women's quota.

 

Canoeing Slalom: 0-1.

Maybe we'll get one of those reallocations like always.

 

Cycling BMX: 1-3.

Men's race for sure, women's maybe both in race and freestyle.

  

Cycling MTB: 1.

We always qualify someone.

 

Cycling Road: 1-2.

We always qualify someone.

 

Cycling Track: 0.

No chance again, sad. We participated continuosly from 1984 to 2012 with some good results.   

 

Diving: 0.

I don't think we even compete in this at pan american level anymore.

 

Equestrian: 1-3.

Jumping, expecting one rider, maybe the team with luck. 

 

Fencing: 1-2.

Men's or women's sabre, women's Epee are the chances. I think at least one will get a quota. 

 

Field Hockey: 32.

Only qualifications that are 100% certain.

 

Football: 0-36.

Women's team has to beat Colombia in a few days, men's team will depend on what team is assembled.

 

Golf: 1-2.

I believe we have two guys in qualification position currently but who knows if they will withdraw.

 

Gymnastics Artistic: 2.

One girl, one boy.

 

Gymnastics Rhythmic: 0-1.

Maybe with luck and good performance we can qualify for the 1st time. 

  

Gymnastics Trampoline: 0

 

Handball: 0-14.

Not favorite to beat Brazil or an Intercontinental qualifier but it's not impossible. 

  

Judo: 1.

Perafan in -48kg women.

  

Modern Pentathlon: 1-2.

Dependant on luck/day performance. 

  

Rowing: 1

Either men's or women's singles. 

  

Rugby Sevens: 12

Men's team. 

 

Sailing: 8-10

Windsurf M&W, Laser M&W, 49er FX, Nacra 17 and maybe 49er.  

  

Shooting: 1-3

Expecting men's skeet. Maybe women's as well, maybe someone in 10m rifle.

  

Skateboarding: 0

We're okayish in men's but not enough for a quota I believe. 

  

Sport Climbing: 0

USA/Canada are too strong in our continent.  

  

Surfing: 0-1

We have a couple of good surfers but they are still outside contenders for quotas. 

 

Swimming: 2-3 

Some token participants like usual.

 

Table Tennis: 0-2  

We have decent chances to qualify at continental level.

  

Taekwondo: 1-2 

Guzmán may qualify again or not but there are also some good youth talents that could surprise. 

 

Tennis: 4-6

 

Expecting full men's team (Schwartzman, Baez, Cerundolo brothers or Etcheverry) + some doubles specialists.

 

Triathlon: 0  

  

Volleyball: 12 

Men's team  

  

Water polo: 0 

 

Weightlifting: 0 

 

Wrestling: 0-1

Destribats or maybe some other surprise.

 

Optimistic: 189  

 

Pessimistic: 94  

 

Realistic: between 140 and 150

[Monzanator 4,483]

My prediction: 25% of medals will come in the hammer throw

 

[Agger 1,660]

I'll give it a go as well. Some big question marks. Any comments, @Wumo?

 

Archery: It will be very tough after Maja Jager retired. A small chance for the women's team or one of them - 0

Artistic Swimming: We have some participants internationally, but no! - 0

Athletics: We are looking better than in a long time and it could be even better in 2 years. Good chances in both 4x100's and chances in the individual sprints. Lobo Vedel looking good for the 400m and at least one of the female throwers should qualify. Some chances in women's hurdles and men's distance running (5000m, steeplechase and marathon) and then the big question is whether Anna Emilie Møller will be back on Olympic level - 16

Badminton: 2 men's singles and 1 in women's singles and men's doubles feels pretty safe. Women's and mixed are a bit more questionable but I do believe they will make it. - 9

Basketball: We're fighting to finally make it to Eurobasket. That's a long way from the Olympics - 0 

Beach Volleyball: We have some fine talent, but I doubt they're ready in 2024 - 0

Boxing: The Terteryan-brothers should have a good chance at securing a spot in 71. Could be one more, but I don't know enough about our talent. - 1

 

Breaking: I really don't know. We have some decent competitors in both men's and women's. Could be? - 0

Canoeing - Slalom: No chance - 0

Canoeing - Sprint: Certainly feels like the women's K4 should make it again. We may even have the men’s K4. If not I have high hopes for the K2 - 6

Cycling - BMX: We have the talent for 2028 but 2024 is uncertain. I do believe that Dorte Balle will secure a spot in the women’s race - 1

Cycling - Mountain Bike: We should at least qualify one of each. If Bohe keeps up her pace while Malene Degn returns to form (And Sofie Heby getting some fine points as well) 2 is very likely for the women. The men could also do it, but they need to start stepping up - 3

Cycling - Road: We should absolutely be in the fight for 4 quotas in the men’s race and 2 in the TT. If we have a better classic season in 2023 that is certainly possible, though we might need to do with 3. 3 is certainly possible for the women as well with us a shot at 2 in the TT as well. - 6

Cycling - Track: Though it’s rather uncertain who will be going for the track, I do believe believe we’ll have the same as in Tokyo. The women’s team is a bit unclear, but I do believe we’ll be able to have a pair. - 7

Diving: We’re back in the European Championships, but the talent that we showed earlier is unlikely to make it to Paris - 0

Equestrian: We’re pretty much certain in the dressage team competition. I do believe we’ll make it in jumping as well and eventing could be. - 4

Fencing: We’re in the fight, but sadly I doubt we’ll make it. - 0

Field Hockey: I think we still don’t have an outdoor national team.  - 0

Football: We have a pretty decent group of players in the U-21 team, but will need some luck. The women will also need a very lucky draw in the World Cup - 0

Golf: Though especially the men are pretty unstable we should get 2 each - 4

Gymnastics - Artistic: Camille Rasmussen shows some nice potential. If she keeps progressing it’s not out of reach - 1

Gymnastics - Rhythmic: We have no. 62 and 65 in Europe. That’s a bit too far away from the Olympics - 0

Gymnastics - Trampoline: Benjamin Salo Kjær has taken a big step during the last year including taking a World Cup bronze. Certainly feels like he should qualify if he’s free from injuries - 1

Handball: Feels like we should qualify both teams this time. - 28

Judo: Lærke Olsen managed to qualify for Tokyo and could do it again (though she may also be challenged by Emilie Sook if she gets back to 100%) and Mathias Madsen has shown the potential as well. Could be 2 but also 0 - 1

Modern Pentathlon: We have one serious athlete but the Olympics feels a bit too far away, especially without equestrian - 0

Rowing: One of my big doubts. All but 1 rower from Tokyo has taken a break or stopped. The women’s four and men’s singlesculls should qualify. Some chance in the lightweight double sculls and men’s four - 7

Rugby Sevens: Nah - 0

Sailing: 49er, 49er FX and laser radial are all pretty certain to qualify. We have a decent Nacra 17 and Lærke Buhl is showing progress after the change to IQ foil. We may see something in the men’s IQ foil, laser or kite, but all are questionable.  - 8

Shooting: Jesper Hansen should qualify in skeet and I would be disappointed if we don’t see at least one female rifle shooter. Could be two in both those two while men’s rifle and pistol also have small chances. - 3

Skateboarding: Rune Glifberg is not ruling out 2024 but I doubt that he’ll make it again - 0

Sport Climbing: Very questionable - 0

Surfing: Not gonna happen - 0

Swimming: Some of our biggest talents stopped. Pernille Blume should be our big star again. But we have 8 pretty strong cards. Could be a relay as well. - 9

Table Tennis: Jonathan Groth should return. Small chances for a team or another player - 1

Taekwondo: Tobias Hyttel seems like a strong contender and our young, new European silver medalist, Edi Hrnic could also be interesting - 1

Tennis: If they want to and keep out of too much injuries, Holger Rune and Clara Tauson should both make it. I doubt our other talents will make it quite high enough - 2 

Triathlon: Alberte Kjær feels pretty certain if she stays free from injuries. Emil Holm is up there as well while Anne Holm could also fight her way into it. A small chance for a relay with Oscar Gladney as the most like 2^nd male. - 2

Volleyball: We’re far away - 0

Water Polo: Ditto. - 0

Weightlifting: Even with a silver medal at the European Championships I really doubt we’ll have anybody at Olympic level. But if everything works out it may happen. - 0

Wrestling: Feels like this depends on the citizenship of the Bisultanov brothers. The other Danish wrestlers seems questionable. Sounds more likely for Turpal - 1
 

 

Total Sports: 23

Optimistic Total Athletes: 148

Realistic Total Athletes: 122

Pessimistic Total Athletes: 75

[thiago_simoes 1,423]

15 hours ago, hckošice said:

Gymnastics - Trampoline: Actually we have no registered competitors in this - 0

Wow, this was such a surprise!  has a medal at the 2001 Trampoline World Championships. I thought trampoline was supposed to be the biggest gymnastics discipline in the country, but I was wrong!

[Triplecast 156]

Probably close to the same number of athletes.  Men’s Football partially  offsets the loss of baseball/softball.  Hope  W hockey will qualify this time.   

[hckošice 14,792]

1 hour ago, thiago_simoes said:

Wow, this was such a surprise!  has a medal at the 2001 Trampoline World Championships. I thought trampoline was supposed to be the biggest gymnastics discipline in the country, but I was wrong!

And an Olympic appearance in Athens 2004 as well !

 

But, yeah, Well, it was always just a 1 man(in this case more a woman) show in fact, it seriously was a tree which hides the forest like our proverb says here

 

Katarína Prokešová was our sole active athlete in this sport and it was more a fruit of German system than ours, She started the sport after moving with her parents to when she was still very young, She lived and trained there her whole career (she actually still live and work there if I am not wrong), basically her only connection with Slovakia was that she competed under our flag

[Makedonas 2,133]

Archery: 1-3 Psarra should make it back again for her 7th Olympics, and now with her daughter we may have a chance at the team event.

Artistic Swimming: 2-9 We'll definitely qualify the duet. Team might depend on Russia's participation...

Athletics: 20-30 I'm too lazy to go into a big analysis on this.

Badminton: 0

Basketball: 0-24

Beach Volleyball: 0

Boxing: 2-3

 

Breaking: 0

Canoeing - Slalom: 0

Canoeing - Sprint: 0 I don't know of anyone, although we should do well at this sport given our coastal areas and also lakes, rivers, etc.

Cycling - BMX: 0

Cycling - Mountain Bike:  1

Cycling - Road: 1

Cycling - Track: 1-2

Diving: 0-2

Equestrian: 0-1 

Fencing: 1-4 We should definitely qualify in women's sabre, the difference is if we make it in the team event or not.

Field Hockey: 0

Football: 0

Golf: 0

Gymnastics - Artistic: 1-3 Surely Petrounias will make it, and possibly one more in each men's and women's I'll say.

Gymnastics - Rhythmic: 0-6 2020 was the first time in several decades that we didn't qualify anyone, but we seem to be slowly moving upwards again.

Gymnastics - Trampoline: 0

Handball: 0

Judo: 2-3 We had 2 in Tokyo but Ntanatsidis seems to have disappeared. However, Tselidis is back from injury so I think he'll make it this time.

Modern Pentathlon: 0

Rowing: 5-18 This one is hard to predict. We had 4 in Tokyo which was very small compared with Rio or London, but it was a very young team and they did really well. We had really good U23 and U19 teams in recent years, so in the next two years we'll get to see how they transition into the senior category. 

Rugby Sevens: 0

Sailing: 5-10 Hard to predict with all of the new categories. Also there is the drama with Karachaliou (who would be one of our biggest medal hopes across all sports) possibly representing Portugal instead.

Shooting: 3-7 We only had 2 in Tokyo, Korakaki and one in men's skeet. I think the young Katzouraki will also qualify in women's skeet. Plus we have good chances for another in men's skeet, Korakaki's brother and Christina Moschi in the pistol events, and maybe Chatzitsakiroglou in men's trap.

Skateboarding: 0

Sport Climbing: 0

Surfing: 0

Swimming: 15-20 We had 12 in Tokyo, but it was a pretty young team and everyone should be back plus some other young swimmers.

Table Tennis: 1-2 Gionis should make it again and possibly the young Sgouropoulos.

Taekwondo: 1-3 We had just 19 yo Tzeli in Tokyo. Telikostoglou was a shock non qualifier after winning silver at the 2019 Worlds. Chamalidis is also decent. I think we'll have some representation in Paris.

Tennis: 2-3 Tsitsipas and Sakkari again. I would like to see someone else make it but I'm not sure how realistic it is. We have three other guys moving up a lot in the doubles rankings, and a couple of other girls in top 200 but someone will need to make big improvements to make it to Paris...I'll be optimistic and say someone else might get in though.

Triathlon: 0

Volleyball: 0

Water Polo: 12-24 Our men will make it as always, and I think our women will finally make it back (I say it every time but it's probably more likely now if no Russia as well)

Weightlifting: 1-2 Just like London, Rio, and Tokyo, I think we'll do the bare minimum to keep our OG qualification streak alive

Wrestling: 3-4 We had 2 in Tokyo, I think both will make it again. Since then we also had 20 yo Kougioumtsidis win gold at the European Championships in the senior's category, so I think he will make it too.
 

Total Sports: 24

Optimistic Total Athletes: 185

Realistic Total Athletes: 112

Pessimistic Total Athletes: 80