How Many Athletes will Your Nation Qualify for the Summer Olympic Games 2020?

[Function CR Lee 468]

China's predict  

the number is male+female

 

 Archery: 3+3=6

 Artistic Swimming: 0+9=9

 Athletics: 30+32=62(min 25+28=53, max 32+34=66)

 Badminton: 8+8=16(min 6+6=12)

 Baseball: 0

 Basketball:12+12=24

 

 3×3 Basketball:4+4=8

 Beach Volleyball:2+2=4(min 0+2=2, max 2+4=6)

 Boxing:5+5=10(min 2+5=7, max 7+5=12)

 Canoeing - Slalom: 2+2=4(min 1+2=3)

 Canoeing - Sprint: 3+8=11(min 2+6=8, max 4+9=13)

 Cycling - BMX Racing: 0(max 0+1=1)

 

 Cycling - BMX Freestyle: 0(max 0+1=1)

 Cycling - Mountain Bike: 1+1=2

 Cycling - Road:0(max 1+1=2)

 Cycling - Track:7+7=14(min 5+7=12)

 Diving:5+6=11(min 4+6=10)

 Equestrian:3+0=3(max 6+0=6)

 Fencing:9+12=21(min 6+9=15, max 12+12=24)

 Field Hockey: 0+18=18(min 0)

 Football: 0+18=18(min 0)

 Golf: 2+2=4

 Gymnastics - Artistic: 6+6=12(min 6+5=11)

 Gymnastics - Rhythmic: 1+5=6

 Gymnastics - Trampoline: 2+2=4

 Handball: 0

 Judo: 3+5=8(min 2+4=6, max 3+7=10)

 Karate: 0+1=1(max 0+3=3)

 Modern Pentathlon: 2+2=4

 Rowing: 2+15=17(max 3+15=18)

 Rugby Sevens: 0+12=12

 Sailing: 4+4=8

 Shooting:10+12=22(max 12+14=26)

 Skateboarding:0+1=1(max 0+2=2)

 Softball:0(max 0+17=17)

 Sport Climbing:1+1=2(min 0)

 Surfing: 0

 Swimming:20+24=44(min 17+20=37, max 25+28=53)

 

 Marathon Swimming:1+1=2(min 0, max 1+2=3)

 Table Tennis: 3+3=6

 Taekwondo: 2+2=4(max 2+3=5)

 Tennis: 0+6=6(min 0+4=4, max 1+6=7)

 Triathlon: 1+1=2(max 1+2=3)

 Volleyball: 0+12=12(max 12+12=24)

 Water Polo: 0+11=11(max 11+11=22)

 Weightlifting: 4+4=8

 Wrestling: 8+5=13(min 6+4=10, max 10+6=16)


 Total Sports:30

 Optimistic Total Athletes:536 

 Realistic Total Athletes:450

 Pessimistic Total Athletes:364

Edited November 17, 2018 by Function CR Lee

[hckošice 14,822]

1 year to The Olympics, and the qualifying process being in it´s halftime it is maybe time to make a small quick brief recap of how the things looks for our small team Slovensko.

 

 

Currently we have still only 5 officially qualified athletes.

 

(All in Shooting - Shotgun, with Erik Varga and Zuzana Rehák-Štefečeková already assured to compete in M respectively W Trap and both in the newly added Mixed Trap. + Danka Barteková is also assured to compete in W Skeet. The 2 remaining quotas will be also used, that´s a certitude, but it´s still not known for who, we will have to wait and see if any other shooter will manage to qualify in order to see if we will use the quotas for second Mixed Trap team or just switch one or both for shooters in other events)

 

 

It´s only a sad reality and evidence we are not able to qualify any Team to the Olympics, the last and only time we managed to qualify a team for the Olympics it was in Sydney 2000 (btw we had 3 teams there (M Football/W Basketball and M Water Polo) which is still something absolutely unbelievable !!!)

 

 

Thanks of the lack of team sports we may very likely expect to be represented in Tokyo by a delegation counting something between 45-60 athletes. guessestimate ofc

 

 

 

As usually our biggest hopes in the upcoming qualifications will be focused mainly on the canoeing sports.

 

The majority of the 246 available quotas (123 M and 123 W) in Sprint Canoeing will be assigned at the World Championships in Szeged (HUN) this August, a couple of remaining spots will be offered at the next years May Continental qualifiers and Duisburg World Cup stage.

In Szeged there will be 5 quotas to win in K1, 6 in K2 and C1, 8 in C2 and 10 in K4.

 

Every athlete can win quota only once, At the Olympics there will be again sadly only the rule of 1 boat per country. And for the K4 the quotas will be disposible only at the World Champs in Szeged, so there will be not any additional repechage chance. Being among the top 10 or nothing.

 

 

 

In Canoeing Slalom at this years World Champs in Seu d´Urgell 18 quotas will be available in the K1 events and only 11 in the C1 events. If we´ll fail (god forbid) there only 1 quota chance at the next years European championships in Lee Valley.

 

 

To sum up to qualify around 10 athletes (4 in Canoeing Slalom and at least 6 in Sprint) would be fine and the expected minimum.

 

 

 

Hypothetically if the qualifying process finished today and all current rankings will be finalized, we would qualify to Tokyo via various rankings 12 other athletes (Martina Repiská in Badminton WS, 2 athletes in M Road Cycling and 1 in M MTB Cycling, Milan Randl in M -90kg Judo, Rory Sabbatini in M Golf, Andrea Štrbová and Natália Dubovcová in W Beach Volleyball, Richard Tury in Skateboarding lol, Martin Kližan, Viktoria Kužmová and Dominika Cibulková in Tennis.

+ Just in the cut off line of the qualifying ranking line or slightly behind are Richard Varga and Romana Gajdošová in M resp. W Triathlon.

 

Except the Road Cycling which will be finalized this October the 27th all remaining rankings will be definitive the next years spring

 

 

An interesting situation occured in Boxing. Now with the completely renewed qualifying system there a slim open chance also for our boxing (if possible, likely only one of Andrej Csemez in -75kg or Matúš Strnisko in -81kg) All qualifying tournaments are schedulled for the first half of the next year.

 

This October will be very important also for our gymnasts Barbora Mokošová and Slavomír Michňák, who knows, if they have a great day and perform well their compositions at the world cahmps in Stuttgart, they have all chances to qualify for Tokyo. especially Barbora.

 

Our only chance in Karate may be Miroslava Kopuňová but she has to really improve her results and be lucky at the next years qualifier.

 

A small but not unrealistic chance is still somewhere living also for our Table Tennis Mixed Doubles Barbora Balážová/Ľubomír Pištej. and Wang Yang through the ranking.

 

The things doesn´t look so good this time in Archery, not many spots remaining and Alexandra Longová will need some serious luck and huge day to won one of the remaining available spots.

 

 

 

A special thing is Athletics. This time is really not easy to qualify, we used to have always the biggest parts of our Olympic teams competing in Athletics, always around 15-20 athletes, but ths time I am affraid we will not reach even the half of this amount.

 

For now we still do not have any single qualified athlete !!! I guess our only chances to qualify wil be via this hybrid ranking system. If we´ll be able to have some constancy in the results we should may qualify also a decnt amount of athletes. since will be counted the average of 5 best results of each non qualified athlete. I do believe we can qualify at least 8 athletes by this system. + 2 or 3 other athletes have the capacities to reach the required strict Tokyo 2020 standard, Mária Czáková in W Race Walk, Martina Hrašnová and Marcel Lomnický in Hammer Throws and especially Matej Tóth in 50km Race Walk. He will compete his first race of the season, directly at the World Champs.

 

 

In Swimming the chance to qualify is only via qualifying standards. Obviously any Slovak swimmer is not any close of achieving it, maybe Richard Nagy in 400 IM but very likely he will be our sole swimmer in Tokyo repeched by FINA thanks one of the better OQT.

 

[dcro 10,210]

3 minutes ago, hckosice said:

(All in Shooting - Shotgun, with Erik Varga and Zuzana Rehák-Štefečeková already assured to compete in M respectively W Trap and both in the newly added Mixed Trap. + Danka Barteková is also assured to compete in W Skeet. The 2 remaining quotas will be also used, that´s a certitude, but it´s still not known for who, we will have to wait and see if any other shooter will manage to qualify in order to see if we will use the quotas for second Mixed Trap team or just switch one or both for shooters in other events)

 

Actually, nations are allowed to exchange only one quota, so Slovakia will have to enter two athletes in either men's or women's trap.

[donerkebab 9]

My guesses are

Archery 2

Athletics 19

Badminton 1

Boxing - 4

Canoe 1

Cycling-Mtb 1

Cycling-Road 2

Fencing 1

Gymnastics- artistic 2

Judo - 4

Karate - 4

Modern Pentathlon - 1

Rowing -2

Sailing - 5

Shooting - 5

Swimming - 6

Table Tennis - 1

Taekwondo- 3

Tennis - 1

Weightlifting - 2

Wrestling - 9

 

It will be around 70- 90 athletes for Turkey. Fingers crossed for Women’a volleyball team ??

 

[Gianlu33 4,552]

Let's do a review after 1 year...

 

Let's start 

 

 Archery: Some troubles with the team... We can still qualify both team

 Artistic Swimming: We improve in the last 10 years, like in Rio the objective in archive the full quota.

 Athletics: In London and in Rio we qualified 38 athletes, in Doha around 65. 40 will be a good number. 

 Badminton: No anyone, maybe Caponio with a lot of luck.

 Baseball: Netherlands is still the favourite, it will be close

 Basketball: With some luck our men's team can back at the games.

 Beach Volleyball: Probabily 3 pairs (2 M +1 W)

 Boxing: From 4 to 6 quotas

 Canoeing - Slalom: Full quota set 

 Canoeing - Sprint: Around 6 athletes... I hope

 Cycling - BMX: With a lot of luck, only Fantoni.

 Cycling - Mountain Bike: 3 men and 1 woman.

 Cycling - Road: Italy will easy qualify the max contigent

 Cycling - Track: Both pursuit team and the omnium.

 Diving: Let's hope that Cagnotto will back... Around 5-6

 Equestrian: Italy qualified the eventing team, and for the jumping will be a 50-50

 Fencing: 24 athletes, why not? 

 Field Hockey: No anyone

 Football: What flop...

 Golf: 2 M + 1 W

 Gymnastics - Artistic: Around 6 athletes

 Gymnastics - Rhythmic: Full quotas 

 Gymnastics - Trampoline: Our biggest athlete is a 37 years old and he will watch the Games on his sofa

 Handball: Italian handball? What is?

 Judo: From 3 to 9 quotas

 Karate: Very strict qualification process, from 3 to 5.

 Modern Pentathlon: We have a great women's team and a nice men's team.. 3/4 quotas I guess

 Rowing: From 23 to 29 quotas

 Rugby Sevens: What? 

 Sailing: Like in Rio, 13 quotas.

 Shooting: From 8 to 12

 Skateboarding: Sure at last 2, maybe one women too in the street event.

 Softball: Full quota

 Sport Climbing: 2 quotas

 Surfing: 1 or 0

 Swimming: From 30 to 40

 Table Tennis: 1 or 0

 Taekwondo: Dell'Aquila is the biggest chance, maybe Rotolo and Alessio.

 Tennis: 6 or 4

 Triathlon: It's hard to say.. maybe 4 or 5.

 Volleyball: Both teams

 Water Polo: Both teams

 Weightlifting: From 2 to 3

 Wrestling: Chamizo is the only one that is sure to archive the qualification. Maybe other 2

 Qualified: 119

 Optimistic Total Athletes: 406(difference betweet 2018: 0)

 Realistic Total Athletes: 321 (dif. +26)

 Pessimistic Total Athletes: 254 (dif. +13)

[rybak 3,217]

•  
• 
  Zgłoś post

 

 I will predict again, a year later when we know things much better.

 

 Archery: Our federation was suspended by some time, few athletes ended their careers due it - 0. If this will really happen we will not compete in this sport first time since it was introduced  to Olympics...

 Artistic Swimming: See you in 2028 or 2032. - 0

 Athletics: So far we unofficial qualified 24 athletes, 44 will compete in upcoming WCH in Doha, few athletes will not compete due to injuries, but I think that in Tokyo we will have between 45-50 competitors, less than in Rio.

 Badminton: ATM only Michał Rogalski (of course men's singles) can qualify, so 1 or 0 as he is currently last European player in place giving olympic quota. Too bad, we had realistic chance for medal in mixed doubles in London and in Rio  

 Baseball: At least we tried... 0

 Basketball: We should qualify in men's 3x3, men's team also have chance to qualify after huge success in China, but only if we will host one of OQT, so, let's wait... women's are terrible... 0-16

 Beach Volleyball: Nothing changed since last year, still we should qualify two men's pair and one women's pair. 4-6

 Boxing: We should have someone, let's say one or two women's and one men. 0-3

 Canoeing - Slalom: In this week will start world champs, I hope for 3 quotas, I doubt that we will qualify only in womens C1. 3

 Canoeing - Sprint: We qualified so far six boats (9 athletes), we should qualify one or two more boats in mens kayak events in next year European qualifier. 9-12

 Cycling - BMX: We are too weak... 0

 Cycling - Mountain Bike: Maja Włoszczowska is old and lately was injured, we can't still count only on her and we don't have good juniors. Mens are weak, We will finish qualifications probably with only one quota. 1

 Cycling - Road: In next month Olympic ranking will be closed, we should qualify 4 mens and 3 womens if something bad will not happen. 6-7

 Cycling - Track: We should have around 8-12 athletes

 Diving: Nothing changed since last year. 0-2

 Equestrian: We have 3 riders (team) so far (and horses ) in eventing, we still have chances for quota(s) in jumping. 3-5

 Fencing: Women's epee team flopped and lost some places in world ranking but still should qualify, women's foil team also have chance, but not so big, currently also Michał Siess is on place giving quota men's foil, but let's wait and see if he will keep this. 2/4-9

 Field Hockey: In both womens and mens qualifications Japanese teams taking out our chances. 0

 Football: Women's aren't yet enough good for having any chances for quota. But those last five minutes in Belgium-Spain match at men's U23 EC destroyed our chances about realistic chance for having football teams first time since 1992. We beaten Portugal, Belgium and even Italy but then Spain destroyed us, we will try for sure next time... 0

 Golf: Adrian Meronk have chance as currently is on 59th place, second from last which give quota, let's see if he will keep this until end of qualification period. 0-1

 Gymnastics - Artistic: I have hope that Gabriela Janik will qualify but I'm not sure if she have big chance, so, 0-1

 Gymnastics - Rhythmic: We can try qualify but we have 0,1% chances for at least one quota. 0

 Gymnastics - Trampoline: I would want finally see our athlete in this sport but no chances, I think. 0 

 Handball: I still can't understand how our level in both teams could fall so quick... 0

 Judo: For sure we will have in this sport more quotas among womens than in men's, if we will qualify anyone at all in men's. 4-7

 Karate: Dorota Banaszczyk have chance to qualify from ranking but she must achieve some more good results, other athletes are without any chances. 0-1

 Modern Pentathlon: So far we have one quota, I have hope for two more, in women's, that's all. 1/2-3

 Rowing: ATM we have qualified 6 boats (20 athletes). It's decent number but I have hope for having additional quotas in next year in mens single sculls and women's pair. 20-23

 Rugby Sevens: We tried but failed. 0 

 Sailing: We are qualified in four events (5 athletes) for now. We have big shot to qualify in two more events (49er and 49er FX). 7-9

 Shooting: 3 quotas so far, I think that's all what we can achieve for now, but maybe someone more will make surprise a'la Bartnik? 3-4

 Skateboarding: Let's see if Amelia Brodka can qualify in park event, there is chance, but is this one big? 0-1

 Softball: Maybe in next century. 0 

 Sport Climbing: We have one quota already and I think that it will be all. 1

 Surfing: 

 Swimming: We have qualified five relays which is very big success for us, I have hope for some more individual quotas, as our swimming federation have own, strict standards. 12-20

 Table Tennis: I really don't know how big our chances are, but let's say 0-3

 Taekwondo: Aleksandra Kowalczuk should qualify, other athletes aren't enough good, but maybe someone will surprise during qualification tournaments. 1-2

 Tennis: Hubert Hurkacz, Magda Linette and Iga Świątek should easliy qualify, Kamil Majchrzak also have chance but he must improve some places in ranking, same about Magdalena Fręch, luckily they still have some months for doing this. Łukasz Kubot and Alicja Rosolska will qualify in doubles for sure, but I wonder with which players they will play as other our doubles players are weak. 5-7.

 Triathlon: I think that we will miss this sport this time. 0

 Volleyball: Men's team is qualified and I have hope for gold thanks to Wilfredo Leon, also when Kurek will back we should be in final easily. Women's team wasted big chance at intercontinental tournament but still have chance to qualify from other tournament, but it depends of opponents in group. 12-24

 Water Polo: Same situation like in softball. 0

 Weightlifting: Qualification system is changed from previous Olympics and is hard to understand, at least for me, but as I heard we have realistic chances only for two quotas, one men and one women, so. 1-2

 Wrestling: In just finishing World Champs we takes just three quotas, I think that we can win way more quotas in next year European and World Qualifier. 5-8

[intoronto 5,638]

Just now, rybak said:

•  

 Surfing: 
 

 

[AmericanHero40 213]

Israel is projected to have 80 athletes with the baseball qualification.  USA gonna have probably around the same number as last time.  Around 550

[Olympian1010 7,971]

18 minutes ago, Maxim Fastovsky said:

Israel is projected to have 80 athletes with the baseball qualification.  USA gonna have probably around the same number as last time.  Around 550

Only 550 

[AmericanHero40 213]

Just now, Olympian1010 said:

Only 550 

 

Probably more like 600, with the softball and baseball (if they qualify) teams at 25 each, no reason to think that there will be less