if the Olympics started tomorrow, my prediction for Italy would be:
- Athletics, 1-2 medals (race walking and men's high jump the best chances)
- Swimming, from a minimum of 5 medals (men's 400m + 800m + 1500m free, women's 1500m free and 1 between women's 800m free and men's 100m breast) to a very optimistic 9 medals (the 6 events mentioned before with a double medal in the men's 800m free + the women's 100m breast and the men's 4*200m free relay)
- Open Water Swimming, 1-2 medals (Paltrinieri not winning a medal would be very disappointing, Bruni is still the silver medallist from Rio 2016)
- Judo, from 0 to 4 medals (if we don't medal in the men's -66kg and women's -52kg, it would be a big disappointment, men's -73kg and -81kg are more outside chances than true expectations)
- Wrestling, 1 medal (men's Freestyle -74kg)
- Karate, 3 to 5 medals (women's Kata is a lock, women's -68kg and men's -75kg are "not to be missed" targets, women's -55kg and men's -67kg are more than simple outsiders)
- Taekwondo, 0-2 medals (both the men's -58kg and -80kg are realistic medal threats -even if the last one still has to qualify, hopefully at least 1 of them comes home with a medal)
- Gymnastics, 0-2 medals (men's Rings and women's team in artistic gymnastic, the group event in rhythmic gymnastics...I hope at least 1 of those 3 potential medals would eventually come home)
- Rowing, 4 medals (both lightweight doubles, M4- and M4X are the only medal candidates, but they are really strong medal candidates)
- Canoeing, 0-1 medals (we just have 3 or 4 outside chances, not a real contender...most likely, our best results would come from men's K1 200m, men's K2 1000m and both slalom K1 events)
- Sailing, 1 medal (Nacra17 mixed...but since sailing is so unpredictable, I secretly hope we can get also 1 or 2 more surprising medals, men's RS:X being the best shot)
- Cycling, 4-5 medals (men's team pursuit and both Omnium events on the track are a lock, Ganna in the men's ITT and the women's road race are also expected medals...hoping to add some more, but it would be extremely difficult)
- Weightlifting, 0-1 medals (men's -81kg could be a realistic shot at a medal)
- Shooting, at least 1 medal in each clay target shooting event is a must (so, at least 5 medals)
- Fencing, at least 3 individual and 5 team medals (8 in total)
- Team Sports, 1-2 medals (men's Waterpolo, both Volleyball teams and the men's Beach Volley competitions are all possible targets, I hope at least a couple of them would eventually succeed)
- other Sports...I don't think we stand a chance, maybe except for a miracle medal in men's Tennis (Jannik Sinner more than Matteo Berrettini) if the starting field is not too strong...
in total, it should be around 35 (very realistic, almost pessimistic view) to 45 medals (very optimistic and unrealistic scenario)...
everything below 30 medals (and 8 Golds) should be considered a big flop, a shame, a disaster...
personally, I'd be happy with 35 medals (but at least 12 being Gold)...