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Fencing FIE World Cup 2023 - 2024 Road to Paris 2024


Totallympics
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Men's Team Epee

 

Current OQR after Today's event

 

:ITA 297 Q by Ranking
:FRA 257 Q by Ranking
:JPN 238 Q by Ranking
:KAZ 228 Q by Ranking

________________________________________


:HUN 228 Q by Continental Spot (Europe)
:VEN 224 Q by Continental Spot (Pan-America)
:KOR 209 Q by Continental Spot (Asia)
:EGY 186 Q by Continental Spot (Africa)

:CZE 157
:SUI 155
:ESP 153
:GER 143
:CAN 135
:CHN 123
:NED 104
:COL 104
:UKR 104
:POL 100
:ISR 95

 

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in the women's Epee, :UKR are closing the gap (but they're still quite distant from) :ITA and :FRA for the Top 4 places in the OQR, but unless something catastrphic happens, all of these teams are in good position to earn their Olympic spot.

 

the only real threat looks to be :EST, if they can get another couple of top 2 placings in the last competitions of the OQP and one or more of the above teams miss out on good positions

 

the remaining Continental spots should go to the currents "owners", as their main rivals are way behind and only a top 2 placing in the next events might move the ranking for them (:EGY are basically qualified because of lack of opponents, both in the African dedicated standing and also in the overall ranking there's no risk for them to drop outside the top 16)

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the men's Epee, instead, is a real mess

 

:JPN:KAZ:HUN:VEN and :KOR are all involved in a very hard fight for the top 4 places, which of course would determine also the Continental spots

 

with 2 rounds to go, only :ITA and :FRA look quite safe, but for all the remaining spot (and their influence on who is going to qualify or not) it's definitely to close to call right now

 

really, anything can still happen

 

p.s. as often happens, :EGY are the only safe qualifier, as they have no opponents in the African Continent and they're too good to drop outside the top 16 of the overall ranking

Edited by phelps
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4 minutes ago, phelps said:

the men's Epee, instead, is a real mess

 

:JPN:KAZ:HUN:VEN and :KOR are all involved in a very hard fight for the top 4 places, which of course would determine also the Continental spots

 

with 2 rounds to go, only :ITA and :FRA look quite safe, but for all the remaining spot (and their influence on who is going to qualify or not) it's definitely to close to call right now

 

really, anything can still happen

 

p.s. as often happens, :EGY are the only safe qualifier, as they have no opponents in the African Continent and they're too good to drop outside the top 16 of the overall ranking

:KAZ seems to be losing momentum, in my opinion :HUN will be in the top 4 and a place will become available for Europe

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1 hour ago, Benolympique said:

:KAZ seems to be losing momentum, in my opinion :HUN will be in the top 4 and a place will become available for Europe

don't underestimate :VEN and :KOR 

they might upset both :KAZ and :HUN 

as I wrote, this is definitely the most uncertain qualification race of them all

 

p.s. @Gianlu33 no, :ITA women's Foil team is not yet mathematically qualified

they're virtually in, but theoretically they could still lose their place (not going to post the whole calculation, as it's just an exercise of style)

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44 minutes ago, Gagaska93 said:

Could you list the remaining World Cups? The olympic ranking will be closed on 1st April?

OQTs remaining

 

women's Epee: :ESP Barcelona (11/02/2024) & :CHN Nanjing (24/03/2024)

 

women's Foil: :FRA Paris (14/01/2024) & :EGY Cairo (25/02/2024)

 

women's Sabre: :PER Lima (11/02/2024); :GRE Athens (03/03/2024) & :BEL Sint-Niklaas (17/03/2024)

 

men's Epee: :GER Heidenheim (24/02/2024) & :ARG Buenos Aires (24/03/2024)

 

men's Foil:FRA Paris (14/01/2024) & :EGY Cairo (25/02/2024)

 

men's Sabre: :GEO Tbilisi (11/02/2024); :ITA Padua (03/03/2024) & :HUN Budapest (24/03/2024)

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On 12/10/2023 at 9:43 AM, phelps said:

interesting situation...

 

:FRA have overtaken :CHN in the top 4 of the OQR, which means that :POL earn the current status of best European team outside the direct qualifying places, meanwhile :CHN still have the Asian spot, but :HKG are pushing a few points behind and even :KOR are not completely out of contention, despite Today's bad result.

 

the current top 3 of the OQR (:JPN:ITA:USA) and the continental spots for Africa (:EGY) and Americas (:CAN) look safe.

 

Actually, only maths leave the door open for them to be upset, but it's almost impossible that anything's gonna happen to them.

 

The only truly open fights are those concerning the last direct OQR spot and the Asian rumble.

 

:POL instead can only hope that both :ITA and :FRA keep going and end up in the top 4 of the OQR, that's the only way for them to qualify.

I don't think Canada is safe.

:BRA has 122 and will necessarily drop 8 points, going to 114. It could also replace an 8pt.

:CANhas 149 will drop 20pt, going to 129pt and could only replace 18pt.
:CHI has 92pt but will not drop or replace anything.

 

So let's say for the sake of argument that Brazil and Canada will do 12th and 13th on the two next world Cups (as they did in Japan), but Chile would be 16th in both.

Brazil would gain 22+22 (44), dropping 8pt from Cairo and replacing 8 from Acapulco. It would gain 28pt and go to 150pt.

On another scenario, let's say Brazil finishes in 16th in the following World Cups. It would gain 18+18-8-8, going to 142pt.

Canada would gain 21+21 (42), dropping 20pt from Cairo and replacing 18 from Istanbul. It would gain 4pt and go to 153pt.

Chile would gain 18+18, going to 128pt.

 

So Chile is almost out of the race and they would probaly need 4 top16 finishes (including in Istanbul last month) to be in the competition. But it could be a strong team for Los Angeles.

 

It's hard to imagine Brazil going better than 12th, but if it finished around 12-14 on the next two World Cups, it could gain the American quota IF Canada is knocked out on first round in one of the two events (as they almost did in Japan)

Edited by Mateus Nagime
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