Fencing FIE World Cup 2023 - 2024 Road to Paris 2024

[phelps 7,191]

Men's Team Epee

 

Current OQR after Today's event

 

297 Q by Ranking
257 Q by Ranking
238 Q by Ranking
228 Q by Ranking

________________________________________

228 Q by Continental Spot (Europe)
224 Q by Continental Spot (Pan-America)
209 Q by Continental Spot (Asia)
186 Q by Continental Spot (Africa)
157
155
153
143
135
123
104
104
104
100
95

 

[phelps 7,191]

in the women's Epee,  are closing the gap (but they're still quite distant from)  and  for the Top 4 places in the OQR, but unless something catastrphic happens, all of these teams are in good position to earn their Olympic spot.

 

the only real threat looks to be , if they can get another couple of top 2 placings in the last competitions of the OQP and one or more of the above teams miss out on good positions

 

the remaining Continental spots should go to the currents "owners", as their main rivals are way behind and only a top 2 placing in the next events might move the ranking for them ( are basically qualified because of lack of opponents, both in the African dedicated standing and also in the overall ranking there's no risk for them to drop outside the top 16)

[phelps 7,191]

the men's Epee, instead, is a real mess

 

 and  are all involved in a very hard fight for the top 4 places, which of course would determine also the Continental spots

 

with 2 rounds to go, only  and  look quite safe, but for all the remaining spot (and their influence on who is going to qualify or not) it's definitely to close to call right now

 

really, anything can still happen

 

p.s. as often happens,  are the only safe qualifier, as they have no opponents in the African Continent and they're too good to drop outside the top 16 of the overall ranking

Edited December 11, 2023 by phelps

[Benolympique 1,898]

4 minutes ago, phelps said:

the men's Epee, instead, is a real mess

 

 and  are all involved in a very hard fight for the top 4 places, which of course would determine also the Continental spots

 

with 2 rounds to go, only  and  look quite safe, but for all the remaining spot (and their influence on who is going to qualify or not) it's definitely to close to call right now

 

really, anything can still happen

 

p.s. as often happens,  are the only safe qualifier, as they have no opponents in the African Continent and they're too good to drop outside the top 16 of the overall ranking

seems to be losing momentum, in my opinion will be in the top 4 and a place will become available for Europe

[phelps 7,191]

1 hour ago, Benolympique said:

seems to be losing momentum, in my opinion will be in the top 4 and a place will become available for Europe

don't underestimate  and  

they might upset both  and  

as I wrote, this is definitely the most uncertain qualification race of them all

 

p.s. @Gianlu33 no,  women's Foil team is not yet mathematically qualified

they're virtually in, but theoretically they could still lose their place (not going to post the whole calculation, as it's just an exercise of style)

[Gagaska93 11]

Could you list the remaining World Cups? The olympic ranking will be closed on 1st April?

[Benolympique 1,898]

15 minutes ago, Gagaska93 said:

Could you list the remaining World Cups? The olympic ranking will be closed on 1st April?

2

[phelps 7,191]

44 minutes ago, Gagaska93 said:

Could you list the remaining World Cups? The olympic ranking will be closed on 1st April?

OQTs remaining

 

women's Epee:  Barcelona (11/02/2024) &  Nanjing (24/03/2024)

 

women's Foil:  Paris (14/01/2024) &  Cairo (25/02/2024)

 

women's Sabre:  Lima (11/02/2024);  Athens (03/03/2024) &  Sint-Niklaas (17/03/2024)

 

men's Epee:  Heidenheim (24/02/2024) &  Buenos Aires (24/03/2024)

 

men's Foil:  Paris (14/01/2024) &  Cairo (25/02/2024)

 

men's Sabre:  Tbilisi (11/02/2024);  Padua (03/03/2024) &  Budapest (24/03/2024)

[Pasolini 171]

On 12/10/2023 at 9:43 AM, phelps said:

interesting situation...

 

 have overtaken  in the top 4 of the OQR, which means that  earn the current status of best European team outside the direct qualifying places, meanwhile  still have the Asian spot, but  are pushing a few points behind and even  are not completely out of contention, despite Today's bad result.

 

the current top 3 of the OQR () and the continental spots for Africa () and Americas () look safe.

 

Actually, only maths leave the door open for them to be upset, but it's almost impossible that anything's gonna happen to them.

 

The only truly open fights are those concerning the last direct OQR spot and the Asian rumble.

 

 instead can only hope that both  and  keep going and end up in the top 4 of the OQR, that's the only way for them to qualify.

I don't think Canada is safe.

 has 122 and will necessarily drop 8 points, going to 114. It could also replace an 8pt.

has 149 will drop 20pt, going to 129pt and could only replace 18pt.
 has 92pt but will not drop or replace anything.

 

So let's say for the sake of argument that Brazil and Canada will do 12th and 13th on the two next world Cups (as they did in Japan), but Chile would be 16th in both.

Brazil would gain 22+22 (44), dropping 8pt from Cairo and replacing 8 from Acapulco. It would gain 28pt and go to 150pt.

On another scenario, let's say Brazil finishes in 16th in the following World Cups. It would gain 18+18-8-8, going to 142pt.

Canada would gain 21+21 (42), dropping 20pt from Cairo and replacing 18 from Istanbul. It would gain 4pt and go to 153pt.

Chile would gain 18+18, going to 128pt.

 

So Chile is almost out of the race and they would probaly need 4 top16 finishes (including in Istanbul last month) to be in the competition. But it could be a strong team for Los Angeles.

 

It's hard to imagine Brazil going better than 12th, but if it finished around 12-14 on the next two World Cups, it could gain the American quota IF Canada is knocked out on first round in one of the two events (as they almost did in Japan)

Edited December 11, 2023 by Mateus Nagime

[Pasolini 171]

Does anyone know what would happen in a tie?