Gagaska93

Final List to OQS https://www.worlddancesport.org/News/WDSF/Final-List-of-Qualified-Athletes-to-compete-in-the-Olympic-Qualifier-Series-(OQS)-3414
 
WDSF has never been clear enough about the reallocations of quotas to those athletes who have conquered spots in more than one competition. Differently from what happened with the other sports which will take place at this event.

GREAT JOB!
In Polish national team I think that the biggest chance has Damian Durkacz as you wrote. But in my opinion Mateusz Bereźnicki (92 kg) is underrated, he is polish numeber 2 IMO.
It would be great if 5 POL W qualify, but I agree with rafalgorka that it would be hard. But I am sure about Wójcik and Rygielska. Szeremeta is a big talent and I also think she can make it.
 
 

The races will first start tomorrow:
 

GREAT JOB!
In Polish national team I think that the biggest chance has Damian Durkacz as you wrote. But in my opinion Mateusz Bereźnicki (92 kg) is underrated, he is polish numeber 2 IMO.
It would be great if 5 POL W qualify, but I agree with rafalgorka that it would be hard. But I am sure about Wójcik and Rygielska. Szeremeta is a big talent and I also think she can make it.
 
 

Country Total Ranking points Women's ranking points (Ranking) Men's rankings points (Ranking) Boxers (W,M) Projected Qualifiers (Qualified) Realistic qualification ceiling Projected Olympic medallists Olympic Medal ceiling 1 Uzbekistan 623 131 (19) 492 (1) 13 (6,7) 8 (4) 10 6 8 2 Kazakhstan 593 219 (10) 374 (2) 13 (6,7) 9 (2) 11 5 6 3 Ireland 583 355 (2) 228 (10) 12 (6,6) 10 (5) 11 5 6 4 USA 540 172 (14) 368 (3) 13 (6,7) 11 (5) 13 3 5 5 China  516 357 (1) 159 (21) 13 (6,7) 9 (7) 10 5 6 6 France 505 245 (5) 260 (6) 13 (6,7) 8 (7) 11 2 6 7 Brazil 504 228 (9) 276 (5) 13 (6,7) 11 (9) 11 2 6 8 Colombia 471 234 (6) 237 (8) 13 (6,7) 9 (3) 10 1 4 9 Great Britain 465 231 (8) 234 (9) 13 (6,7) 7 (3) 11 0 4 10 India 448 267 (3) 181 (18) 13 (6,7) 6 (4) 9 2 6 11 Turkey 436 256 (4) 180 (20) 13 (6,7) 8 (6) 8 2 4 12 Thailand 419 233 (7) 186 (16) 11 (6,5) 7 (4) 9 2 4 13 Italy 400 213 (12) 187 (15) 13 (6,7) 6 (4) 8 2 3 14 Ukraine 384 140 (18) 244 (7) 13 (6,7) 4 (1) 10 2 3 15 Bulgaria 358 155 (17) 203 (14) 10 (4,6) 4 (3) 8 2 4 16 Cuba 313 11 (68) 302 (4) 10 (3,7) 5 (3) 7 1 3 17 Spain 302 86 (27) 216 (13) 10 (3,7) 6 (2) 7 0 1 18 Chinese Taipei  280 219 (10) 61 (40) 8 (4,4) 6 (4) 7 2 2 19 Armenia 266 85 (28) 181 (18) 13 (6,7) 4 (0) 7 0 2 20 Germany 263 79 (33) 184 (17) 12 (5,7) 3 (0) 9 1 1 21 Mongolia 254 131 (19) 123 (27) 13 (6,7) 4 (2) 6 1 1 21 Poland 254 174 (13) 80 (35) 13 (6,7) 6 (0) 7 0 0 23 Azerbaijan 250 29 (55) 221 (12) 12 (5,7) 3 (2) 6 0 1 24 Canada 247 170 (15) 77 (36) 13 (6,7) 3 (2) 6 1 1 25 Australia  245 119 (24) 126 (25) 13 (6,7) 12 (12) 12 0 1 26 Philippines 243 90 (26) 153 (22) 10 (4,6) 3 (1) 5 0 3 27 Georgia 230 7 (77) 223 (11) 8 (1,7) 3 (1) 6 1 2 28 Serbia 225 128 (21) 97 (32) 11 (6,5) 2 (2) 6 0 0 29 Japan 224 106 (25) 118 (28) 10 (5,5) 5 (2) 7 0 2 30 Mexico 208 68 (37) 140 (24) 11 (5,6) 3 (2) 4 1 1 31 North Korea 202 165 (16) 37 (52) 9 (5,4) 2 (2) 3 1 2 32 Algeria 193 120 (23) 73 (37) 12 (5,7) 5 (5) 5 1 1 33 Dominican Republic 189 38 (46) 151 (23) 13 (6,7) 3 (1) 5 0 2 34 Venezuela 184 121 (22) 63 (39) 9 (6,3) 2 (1) 5 0 0 35 Tajikistan 148 34 (52) 114 (30) 12 (5,7) 3 (2) 4 0 1 36 Croatia 143 33 (53) 110 (31) 8 (3,5) 2 (1) 3 0 1 37 Ecuador 140 23 (59) 117 (29) 11 (4,7) 3 (2) 4 0 0 38 Hungary 129 36 (51) 93 (33) 11 (4,7) 2 (2) 5 0 0 39 Jordan 127 3 (90) 124 (26) 8 (2,6) 1 (0) 3 0 0 40 Morocco 123 81 (31) 42 (46) 13 (6,7) 3 (3) 3 0 0 40 Mozambique 123 85 (28) 38 (48) 10 (5,5) 2 (1) 3 0 0 40 Argentina 123 82 (30) 41 (47) 10 (6,4) 1 (0) 4 0 0 43 South Korea 117 80 (32) 37 (52) 13 (6,7) 1 (0) 1 0 0 44 Denmark 113 28 (56) 85 (34) 5 (2,3) 1 (1) 3 1 1 45 Romania 98 70 (35) 28 (62) 6 (3,3) 1 (1) 3 0 1 46 Norway 97 45 (44) 52 (44) 5 (2,3) 1 (0) 3 0 0 47 Sweden 85 70 (35) 15 (83) 4 (3,1) 2 (1) 3 0 0 48 Nigeria 84 55 (41) 29 (60) 9 (6,3) 3 (3) 3 0 0 49 Vietnam 80 71 (34) 9 (97) 8 (5,3) 1 (0) 1 0 1 50 Puerto Rico 79 57 (39) 22 (71) 6 (3,3) 2 (1) 3 0 0 51 Slovakia 76 38 (46) 38 (48) 6 (3,3) 0 (0) 2 0 0 52 Czech Republic 73 55 (41) 18 (79) 12 (6,6) 0 (0) 1 0 0 52 Finland 73 65 (38) 8 (101) 5 (4,1) 1 (0) 2 0 0 54 Zambia 71 13 (67) 58 (42) 8 (4,4) 1 (1) 1 0 0 55 Kyrgyzstan 70 0 (116) 70 (38) 7 (0,7) 0 (0) 1 0 0 56 Panama 68 57 (39) 11 (92) 5 (2,3) 1 (1) 1 0 1 57 DR Congo 67 21 (60) 46 (45) 12 (6,6) 1 (1) 2 0 0 57 Belgium 67 38 (46) 29 (60) 3 (2,1) 2 (2) 2 0 0 57 New Zealand 67 42 (45) 25 (64) 12 (6,6) 0 (0) 0 0 0 60 Egypt 66 9 (73) 57 (43) 11 (4,7) 3 (3) 4 0 0 Country Global Ranking (points) Women's rankings (points) Men's rankings (points) Boxers (W, M) Projected Qualifiers (Qualified) Realistic qualification ceiling Projected medallist Medal ceiling Russia (WC squad) 586 (3) 220 (10) 366 (4) 13 (6,7) 12 13 3 5 Belarus (WC squad) 142 (37) 36 (52) 106 (32) 7 (4,3) 1 3 1 1 ● Ranking system is a scale starting at 77 and then declining at declining intervals down to 6 points for the 40th ranked boxer in each weight class. Beyond the top 40 boxers in a weightclass the points assigned are a function of the total number of boxers in a given weightclass.
● It's a predominantly arbitrary point allocation system.
● Country rankings are a cumalative total of their respective indivual boxers ranking points. Highest possible country score is a 1000.
● Projected qualifiers refers to the number of boxers already qualified per nation plus the boxers that would fill the world qualifying tournament quota places based on my rankings. Naturally, they do not include the nine universality quota places.
● Realistic qualification ceiling is the number of boxers I perceive to be above a given threshold in every weight class below which I think a boxer would need a very lucky draw or favorable judging decisions to be in with a chance of qualifying at the world qualiying tournaments.
● Projected medallists are just the top four in every weightclass although it should be noted that these rankings are an assesment of how I would rank things now and not necessarily a projection for how I see the Olympics playing out.
● Medal ceiling is the total number of boxers who I would consider medal contenders. Medal contenders are roughly the top 8/9 ranked boxers in every weightclass but some weightclasses do differ slightly from that (High of 10, low of 6). Boxers outside this threshold will obviously win some medals at the Olympics given how volatile and unpredictable boxing can be but the vast majority of Olympic medals will be won by boxers inside these thresholds.
 
 
So I designed a ranking system outlined in part above to look at which countries had the strongest Olympic squads. This is not an assesment of the best boxing countries just how good they're Olympic squad is. Most of the results line up with what I expected but obviously there are a few strange ones.

W66kg (Welterweight)   W75kg (Middleweight)   M51kg (Flyweight) 1 Busenaz Surmeneli (TUR)   Tamarra Thibeault (CAN)   Hasanboy Dusmatov (UZB) 2 Amy Broadhurst (IRL) ?   Qian Li (CHN)    Saken Bibbosinov (KAZ) 3 Imane Khelif (ALG)   Lovlina Borgohain (IND) <   Billal Bennama (FRA) 4 Yang Liu (CHN)   Aoife O'Rourke (IRL)   Roscoe Hill (USA) < 5 Morelle McCane (USA)   Caitlin Parker (AUS)   Tomoya Tsuboi (JAP) 6 Janjaem Suwannepheng (THA)   Cindy Ngamba (EOR) (REF)   Deepak Bhoria (IND)  7 Rosie Eccles (GBR)   Atheyna Bylon (PAN)   Samet Gumus (TUR) 8 Charlie Cavanagh (CAN) ?   Davina Michel (FRA)   Martin Molina (ESP) 9 Alcinda Panguane (MOZ)   Elzbieta Wojcik (POL)   Thitisan Panmot (THA) 10 Barbara dos Santos (BRA)   Citlalli Ortiz (MEX) <   Yuberjen Martinez (COL) < 11 Chen Nien-chen (TPE)   Naomi Graham (USA)   Kiaran McDonald (GBR) 12 Camila Camilo (COL)    Busra Isildar (TUR)    Federico Serra (ITA)  13 Aneta Rygielska (POL)   Khadija El-Mardi (MOR)   Patrick Chinyemba (ZAM) > 14 Oshin Derieuw (BEL) <   Ani Hovsepyan (ARM) <<   Po Wei Tu (TPE) 15 Stefanie von Berge (GER)   Rady Gamane (MOZ)   Alejandro Claro Fiz (CUB) 16 Lucia Noelia Perez (ARG)   Sunniva Hofstad (NOR)   Aaron Jude Bado (PHI) 17 Stephanie Pineiro (PUR)   Valentina Khalzova (KAZ) <   Daniel Asenov (BUL) 18 Navbakhor Khamidova (UZB)   Kerry Davis (GBR)   Attila Bernath (HUN) 19 Emilie Sonvico (FRA)   Baison Manikon (THA)   Dmytro Zamotayev (UKR)  20 Milena Matovic  (SRB)    Love Holgersson (SWE) >   So Chonryong (PRK) 21 Luca Hamori (HUN)   Anastasia Chernokolenko (UKR)   Sakhil Alakhverdovi (GEO) 22 Marissa Williamson (AUS)    Gabriele Stonkute (LTU) >   Jiamao Zhang (CHN) 23 Maria Moronta (DOM) >   Melissa Gemini (ITA)   Yunior Alcantara Reyes (DOM) 24 Assunta Canfora (ITA)   Maryelis Yriza (VEN)   Salah Ibrahim (GER) 25 Madeleine Angelsen (NOR)    Patricia Mbata (NGR)   Ramon Nicanor Quiroga (ARG) 26 Luna Beeloo (NED)   Deanne Read (NZL)   Rudolf Garboyan (ARM) 27 Arundhati Choudhary (IND)   Jessica Triebelova (SVK)    Azat Makhmetov (BHR) 28 Ivanusa Gomes Moreira (CPV) >   Vivianne Pereira (BRA)    Masud Yusifzada (AZE)  29 Oumayma Bel Ahbib (MOR)   Irina Schonberger (GER)    Sean Mari (IRL) 30 Maria Bova (UKR) ?   Eseta Flint (TGA)   Ala Eddine Zidi (TUN)  31 Natalya Bogdanova (KAZ) ?   Nikolina Gajic (SRB)   Luis Delgado (ECU)  32 Beatrise Rozentale (LAT)   Monika Langerova (CZE)   Michael de Trindade (BRA) 33 Shoira Zulkaynarova (TJK)   Elizabeth Andiego (KEN)   Unabold Orkhontungalag (MGL) ? 34 Cara Wharerau (NZL)   Aziza Zokirova (UZB)   Nurzhigit Diushebaev (KGZ) 35 Hwang Hyo-sun (PRK)   Timea Nagy (HUN)   Jo Se-Hyeong (KOR) 36 Yuliannys Alvarez (VEN)   Enkhbaatar Erdenetuya (MGL)   Said Mortaji (MOR)  37 Tsetsegdari Myargmarsuren (MGL) Lorena Balbuena (ARG)   Omer Ametovic (SRB) > 38 Shahla Allahverdiyeva (AZE)   Seong Su-yeon (KOR)   Yusuf Chothia (AUS) 39 Austeja Auciute (LTU)   Vasiliki Stavridou (GRE)   Mohamed Moziane (ALG)  40 Seon Su-jin (KOR)   Luisa Vasquez (COL)   Keymberth Gonzalez (ECU) 41 Brigitte Mbabi (COD)   Aynur Rzayeva (AZE)   Theophilus Allotey (GHA) 42 Paraskevi Mavrommati (GRE)   Marie-Joelle Mwika (COD)   Sinovuyo Mtintelwa (RSA) 43 Mireille Biindzi (CAM) >   Molka Ben Mabrouk (TUN)   Jakub Slominski (POL) 44 Sona Harutyunyan (ARM)   Ingrith Maldonado (ECU)   David Karanja Macharia (KEN) 45 Friza Asikoh (KEN)   Diem Quynh Luu (VIE)   Oscar Castaneda (MEX) 46 Mai Kito (JAP)   Yakelin Estornell (CUB)   Mohamed Otukile (BOT)  47 Francinah Kasemang (BOT)   Milena Jimenez (DOM)   David Alaverdian (ISR)  48 Marketa Tojnarova (CZE)   Kimberly Gittens (BAR)   Abdallah Mohamed Abdallah (TAN) 49 Olawunmi Shodipe (NGR)   Saraswati Rana (NEP)   Trofimus Johannes (NAM) 50 Sedja Sanogo (CIV)   Ornella Sathoud (GHA)   Yassine Nordine Issufo (MOZ) >               Azalia Amineva (RUS) (10)   Anastasia Shamonova (RUS) (14)   Vasiliy Egorov (RUS) (7)   Aryna Danilchyk (BLR) (42)   Alina Veber (BLR)  (27)       Sara Kali (CAN) (29)        

Right so here goes, W54kg was by far the trickiest weight to rank by a mile, lots of good but no great boxers.
Index
Example : Qualified boxer. Example : Projected qualifier at the 2 world qualifying tournements. First underline : Number of qualifiers in a given weightclass. Second underline :Threshold for realistic qualifiers at the world qualifying tournaments.   >/<  Boxer could/ should be ranked higher (>) or lower (<) than they are. ?     Boxer may be replaced for the world qualifying tournaments/ may not be their country's best boxer. ??    Boxer didn't compete at continental qualifiers for reasons I am unaware of. (F)/ (L) - This is just a note that Tugsjargal Nomin-Erdene and Monkhor Namuun seemingly have swapped weightclasses as they both competed in differetn weight classes from where they commpeted at Asian Games at the Koln boxing cup.  These rankings include every boxer that competed at any of the continental Olympic qualifying tournaments. I've listed the Russian and Belarussian world championships squads here under the rankings and an approximate ranking for them. The majority of these boxers as I understand are affiliated with their respective militaries and will not be eligible to qualify for the Olympics. I've also added an approximate ranking for boxers who missed their continental qualifiers or are clearly more talented than the boxer that competed for their country at the continental qualifying tournaments and who would be in with a chance of qualifying for the Olympics. This could have been a more extensive list and I would expect lots of countries to tinker with their squads for the world qualifyiers but for simplicity I opted to restrict them to only clear cut cases   W50kg (Flyweight)   W54kg (Bantamweight)   W57kg (Featherweight)   W60kg (Lightweight) 1 Buse Naz Cakiroglu (TUR)   Pang Chol-mi (PRK)   Lin Yu-ting (TPE)   Kellie Harrington (IRL) 2 Nikhat Zareen (IND)   Stanimira Petrova (BUL)   Irma Testa (ITA)   Beatriz Ferreira (BRA) 3 Wu Yu (CHN)   Huang Hsiao-wen (TPE)   Karina Ibragimova (KAZ)   Yang Wenlu (CHN) 4 Chuthamat Raksat (THA)   Jutamas Jitpong (THA)   Michaela Walsh (IRL)   Angie Paola Valdes (COL) 5 Thi Tham Nguyen (VIE) <   Yuan Chang (CHN)   Svetlana Staneva (BUL)   Won Ung-yong (PRK) 6 Ingrit Valencia Victoria (COL)<   Charley Sian Taylor Davison (GBR)   Nesthy Petecio (PHI)   Estelle Mossely (FRA) 7 Giordana Sorrentino (ITA)   Nigina Uktamova (UZB)    Amina Zidani (FRA)   Natalia Shadrina (SRB) 8 Wassila Lkhadiri (FRA)   Preeti (IND)    Jucielen Romeu (BRA)   Shona Whitwell (GBR)  9 Tsukimi Namiki (JAP)   Anastasia Kovalchuk (UKR)   Parveen Hooda (IND) >   Oh Yeonji (KOR) 10 Daina Moorehouse (IRL) >   Lacramioara Perijoc (ROU)   Jennifer Fernandez (ESP)   Rimma Volossenko (KAZ) 11 Caroline de Almeida (BRA) >   Hatice Akbas (TUR)   Valeria Arboleda (COL)   Agnes Alexiusson (SWE) 12 Nazym Kyzaibay (KAZ)   Jennifer Lehane (IRL)    Omailyn Alcala (VEN)   Donjeta Sadiku (KOS) 13 Tetyana Kob (UKR)   Zhaina Shekerbekova (KAZ) >   Elise Glynn (GBR)   Wu Shih-yi (TPE) 14 Roumaysa Boualam (ALG)   Yeni Arias (COL) >   Monkhor Namuun (MGL) < (L?)   Nomin-Erdene Tugsjargal (MGL) (F?) 15 Pihla Kaivo-oja (FIN) <   Sirine Charaabi (ITA)   Julia Szeremeta (POL)   Jajaira Gonzalez (USA) 16 Laura Fuertes (ESP)   Sandra Drabik (POL) >   Xu Zichun (CHN)   Lenka Bernardova (CZE) 17 Yesugen Oyuntsetseg (MGL) >   Rinka Kinoshita (JAP)   Asleyann Lozada (PUR)   Cynthia Ogunsemilore (NGR)  18 Natalia Rok (POL)   Johana Gomez (VEN)   Khouloud Hlimi (TUN) >   Krisandy Rios (VEN) 19 Sabina Bobokulova (UZB)   Enkhjargal Mungunsetseg (MGL)   Vilma Viitanen (FIN) <    Alessia Mesiano (ITA) ? 20 Zlatislava Chukanova (BUL)   Sara Cirkovic (SRB)   Claudia Nechita (ROU)   Elida Kocharyan (ARM) 21 Aldana Florencia Lopez (ARG)   Scarlett Delgado (CAN)    Melissa Mortensen (DEN)   Thananya Somnuek (THA) 22 Monique Suraci (AUS)   Bojana Gojkovic (MNE)   Marianna Basanets (UKR)    Jaismine (IND) 23 Aira Villegas (PHI)   Yoseline Perez (USA)  ?   Mijgona Samadova (TJK)   Miroslava Jedinakova (SVK) 24 Nina Radovanovic (SRB)   Delphine Mancini (FRA)   Asya Ari (GER)    Sara Beram (CRO) 25 Maxi Klotzer (GER)   Sofia Robles (ARG)    Satsuki Yoshizawa (JAP) >   Hadjila Khelif (ALG) 26 Demie-Jade Resztan (GBR) > ?   Nikolina Cacic (CRO)   Marie Al-Ahmadieh (CAN)   Ayaka Taguchi (JAP) 27 Yasmine Moutaqui (MOR)   Mary Romero (ESP)   Alyssa Mendoza (USA) ?   Camila Pineiro (URU)  28 Anush Grigoryan (ARM)   Ekaterina Sycheva (ARM)   Aysen Taskin (TUR)   Chelsey Heijnen (NED) 29 Ingrid Gomez (MEX)   Widad Bertal (MOR)   Paek Jin-hyang (PRK)   Gizem Ozer (TUR) 30 Bak Cho-rong (KOR)   Tatiana de Jesus (BRA)   Sitora Turdibekova (UZB)    Raykhona Kodirova (UZB) 31 Jennifer Lozano (USA)   Estefani Almanzar (DOM)    Tina Rahimi (AUS)   Anna Jenni (SWI) 32 Susan Aguas (ECU)   Sara Haghighat-Joo (SLE)   Olga Papadatou (GRE)   (Rizwa Pasuit (PHI)) 33 Tayonis Cedeno (VEN)   Antonia Giannakopoulou (GRE)   Porntip Buapa (THA)   Hanna Okhrei (UKR) 34 Kang Su-hyang (PRK) <   Zehra Milli (SWE)   Mahsati Hamzayeva (AZE)   Tyla McDonald (AUS) 35 Sofie Vinther Rosshaug (DEN)   Im Aeji (KOR)   Lucie Sedlackova (CZE)   Sandra Kruk (POL) 36 Thandolwethu Mathiba (RSA) <   Zeynab Rahimova (AZE)   Legnis Cala (CUB)    Maria Palacios (ECU) 37 Mckenzie Wright (CAN)   Irish Magno (PHI)    Ana Milisic (SWI)   Felistars Nkandu (ZAM) 38 Tasmyn Benny (NZL)   Ana khunjua (GEO)    Andjela Brankovic (SRB)   Esmeralda Falcon (MEX) 39 Rita Soares (POR)   Emma Jokiaho (FIN)   Marcelat Sakobi (COD)   Loredana Marin (ROU) 40 Nicole Durikova (SVK)   Thi Ngoc Tran Nguyen (VIE)   Daisy Bamberger (PER)    Erin Walsh (NZL) 41 Wafa Hafsi (TUN)   Mayssen Lambot (BEL)   Keamogetse Kenosi (BOT)   Ana Starovoitova  (LTU) 42 Aylin Jamez (GUA)   Hanna Lakotar (HUN)   Milagros Herrera (ARG)    Nisrine Amine (MOR) 43 Valeria Cardenas (CRC)   Claudia Totova (CZE)   Joy Ojo Nene (NGR) >   Victoria Saputo (ARG) 44 Danisha Mathialagan (SGP)   Denisse Bravo (CHI)   Jennifer Peters (NZL)   Teresa Makinen (FIN) 45 Benedicte Diyoka (COD)   Tiana Echegaray (AUS)   Chandrakala Thapa (NEP)   Islem Ferchichi (TUN) 46 Yuliett Hinestroza (PAN)   Iulia Coroli (MDA)   Tatevik Khachatryan (ARM)   Naomie Yumba (COD) 47 Adeola Oyesiji (NGR)   Yomna Ayyad (EGY)   Leilany Reyes (GUA)   Aslahan Mehmedova  (BUL) > 48 Christine Ongare (KEN) >   Gloria Fernandez (MEX)   Laela El Ksiri (MOR)   Lena Buchner (GER) 49 Petra Mezei (HUN)   Fatma Abdelkader (ALG)   Miguelina Hernandez (DOM)    Mariam Sidibe (CIV) > 50 Gracemarie Quiles Marti (PUR)   Helen Sanchez (ECU)   Jennifer Carillo (MEX) < ?   Huswatun Hasanah (INA)   Ekatarina Paltseva Kuts (RUS) (15)   Karina Tazabekova (RUS) (17)   Liudmila Vorontsova (RUS) (8)   Nadezhda Golubeva (RUS) (12)   Yana Byrum (BLR) (30)           Ala Ivashkevich (BLR) (35)

So I decided to try and figure out who would be the likely qualifiers at the world qualifying tournaments and well many many hours, lots of procrastinating and a contender for the ugliest excel file ever created later I ended up ranking every boxer who competed at the continental qualifying tournaments and doing well some other stuff too.
 
Obviously these are just my rankings and well I will fully admit aren't especially accurate even if I did spend a significant amount of time thinking about every position but they should at least be the most accurate boxing rankings out there.
 
Just quickly in terms of boxing rankings that already exist the IBA have a ranking which is based on points system based on how far you get into their competitions. Even in a normal cycle where everyone was competing in the IBA's competitions they would still be woefully inaccurate because of the way they are calculated. They are also self perpetuating given that these rankings determine seedings which then effect how far into competitions boxers get. Anyway they are completely useless.
 
Then boxrec has a ranking system which is accurate enough and as I understand based on the quality of your opponents you beat/ lose to. It does fall into weird pitfalls  where sometimes it overrates/ underrates one group of boxers and then when they keep beating/ losing to eachother and it gets stuck in a cycle and ends up with some weird rankings as a result. Also if you keep losing to good boxers without fighting bad ones or only beat bad boxers without ever fighting good ones it can end up with weird rankings. Finally while boxrec results database is very good it is still missing a lot of competitions particularly outside of Europe.
 
And then finally Taylor O'Higgins (worth a follow on twitter) used to do an amateur boxing rankings on the Fight site and he is a boxing coach so obviously knows a lot more about the actual boxing side of things than I would. He has mentioned doing the rankings again a couple of times on twitter but as far as I know hasn't posted them.
 
So ye hopefully these fill a bit of a hole and help with some of the qualifying/ medal projections on this site where some of the boxing related projections have been a bit hit and miss.
 
I'll only post the top 50 boxers in each weightclass and the top 60 or so in my country rankings but I have linked an Excel file with the complete rankings of every weight class and ranked every country plus the same stuff but broken down by continental if anyone wants to look at them.
 
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RN05tE5ipfkwHf_7c4vNLpV89zaHfMWw/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=113545580127855067750&rtpof=true&sd=true
 
(To be clear this is not the ugly Excel file I referred to earlier)

Women's Epee:
1. Korea 284
2. Poland 262
3. France 248
4. Italy 244
5. Ukraine 228
6. USA 213
7. Estonia 193 (after yesterday's win they promoted from 12th place)

Women's Epee:
1. Korea 284
2. Poland 262
3. France 248
4. Italy 244
5. Ukraine 228
6. USA 213
7. Estonia 193 (after yesterday's win they promoted from 12th place)

OQTs remaining
 
women's Epee:  Barcelona (11/02/2024) &  Nanjing (24/03/2024)
 
women's Foil:  Paris (14/01/2024) &  Cairo (25/02/2024)
 
women's Sabre:  Lima (11/02/2024);  Athens (03/03/2024) &  Sint-Niklaas (17/03/2024)
 
men's Epee:  Heidenheim (24/02/2024) &  Buenos Aires (24/03/2024)
 
men's Foil:  Paris (14/01/2024) &  Cairo (25/02/2024)
 
men's Sabre:  Tbilisi (11/02/2024);  Padua (03/03/2024) &  Budapest (24/03/2024)

Day 3, Mon, 29.07
 
28. ARCHERY - M Team
 
1. Korea Rep.
2. China
3. Turkey
 
 
29. ARTISTIC GYMNASTICS - M Team
 
1. China
2. Japan
3. Bulgaria
 
 
30. CANOE SLALOM - M C1
 
1. Benjamin Savsek SLO
2. Lukas Rohan CZE
3. Nicolas Gestin FRA
 
 
31. DIVING - M Synchro 10m Platform
 
1. CHina
2. Ukraine
3. Mexico
 
 
32. EQUESTRIAN - Eventing Team
 
1. Germany
2. United States
3. Great Britain
 
Team GB gets gold with a very narrow win.
 
33. EQUESTRIAN - Eventing Individual
 
1. Julia Krajewski GER
2. Yasmin Ingham GBR
3. Tim Price NZL
 
34. FENCING - M Foil Ind
 
1. Alexander Massialas USA
2. Tommaso Marini ITA
3. Gerek Meinhardt USA
 
 
35. FENCING - W Sabre Ind
 
1. Misaki Emura JPN
2. Sara Balzer FRA
3. Despina Gkhontura GRE
 
 
36. JUDO - W -57kg
 
1. Christa Deguchi CAN
2. Haruka Funakubo JPN
3. Lkhagvatogoogiin Enkhriilen MGL
3. Nora Gjakova KOS
 
Deguchi wins internal Canadian battle in this category and then goes to win first gold for Canada in Paris.
 
37. JUDO - M -73kg
 
1. Soichi Hashimoto JPN
2. Nils Stump SUI
3. Hidayat Heydarov AZE
3. Murodjon Yuldoshev UZB
 
Another silver for Italy in Paris.
 
38. MOUNTAIN BIKE - M Cross-country
 
1. Tom Pidcock GBR
2. Nino Schurter SUI
3. David Valero Serrano ESP
 
 
39. SHOOTING - M Air Rifle
 
1. Haoran Yang CHN
2. Zalan Pekler HUN
3. Frantisek Smetana CZE
 
 
40. SHOOTING - W Air Rifle
 
1. Han Jiayu CHN
2. Zhilin Wang CHN
3. Seonaid McIntosh GBR
 
 
41. SWIMMING - W 400m IM
 
1. Summer McIntosh CAN
2. Katie Grimes USA
3. Jenna Forrester AUS
 
 

42. SWIMMING - M 200m Free
 
1. DAvid Popovichi ROU
2. Tom Dean GBR
3. Matthew Richards GBR
 
 
43. SWIMMING - M 100m Back
 
1. Ryan Murphy USA
2. Thomas Ceccon ITA
3. Hunter Armstrong USA
 
 
44. SWIMMING - W 100m Breast
 
1. Ruta Meilutyte LTU
2. Tatjana Schoenmakers RSA
3. Lydia Jacoby USA
 
45. SWIMMING - W 200m Free
 
1. Mollie O'Callaghan AUS
2. Ariarne Titmus AUS
3. Summer McIntosh CAN

Day 2, Sun 28.07
 
15. ARCHERY - W Team
 
1. Korea Rep.
2. Germany
3. Mexico
 
 
16. CANOE SLALOM - W K1
 
1. Jessica Fox AUS
2. Ricarda Funk GER
3. Klaudia Zwolińska POL
 
 
17. FENCING - M Epee Ind
 
1. Davide Di Veroli ITA
2. Mate Tamas Koch HUN
3. Gergely Siklosi HUN
 
 
18. FENCING - W Foil Ind
 
1. Lee Kiefer USA
2. Alice Volpi ITA
3. Arianna Errigo ITA
 
19. JUDO - W -52kg
 
1. Uta Abe JPN
2. Diyora Keldiyorova UZB
3. Amandine Bouchard FRA
3. Distria Krasniqi KOS
 
 
20. JUDO - M -66kg
 
1. Hifumi Abe JPN
2. Denis Vieru MDA
3. Davide Garcia Torne ESP
3. Baskhuu Youndoperenlei MGL
 
 
21. MOUNTAIN BIKE - W Cross-country
 
1. Pauline Ferrand-Prevot FRA
2. Alessandra Keller SUI
3. Jolanda Neff SUI
 
Ferrand-Prevot gets gold only after great final lap for her.
 
22. SHOOTING - M Air Pistol
 
1. Bowen Zhang CHN
2. Damir Mikec SRB
3. Ismail Keles TUR
 
 
 
23. SHOOTING - W Air Pistol
 
1. Jiang Ranxin CHN
2. Li Xue CHN
3. Anna Korakaki GRE
 
Maybe Klaudia Breś will make a surprise medal for Poland?
 
24. SKATEBOARDING - W Street
 
1. Rayssa Leal BRA
2. Momji Nisihiya JPN
3. Chloe Covell AUS
 
No idea so I copy your podium.
 
25. SWIMMING - M 400m IM
 
1. Leon Marchand FRA
2. Carson Foster USA
3. Daiya Seto JPN
 
French go mad as Marchand gets his 1st gold here.
 
26. SWIMMING - W 100m Fly
 
1. Yufei Zhang CHN
2. Margaret MacNeil CAN
3. Torri Huske USA
 
 
27. SWIMMING - M 100m Breast
 
1. Qin Haiyang CHN
2. Nicolo Martinenghi ITA
3. Arno Kamminga NED

Hello Rafał,
My opinion about first day.
1.      DIVING - W Synchro 3m Springboard

Gold – China
Silver – Great Britain
Bronze - Italy


2.      FENCING - W Epee Ind

Gold – Marie-Florence Candassamy FRA
Silver – Alberta Santuccio ITA
Bronze – Vivian Kong HGK
 
3. FENCING - M Sabre Ind
Gold – Marie-Florence Candassamy FRA
Silver – Alberta Santuccio ITA
Bronze – Vivian Kong HGK

 

4. JUDO - W -48kg


Gold –  Natsumi Tsunoda JPN
Silver – Assunta Scutto ITA
Bronze – Shirine Boukli FRA
Bronze -
Catarina Costa POR
 

5. JUDO - M -60kg
Gold – Ryuju Nagayama JPN
Silver – Harim Lee KOR
Bronze – Ariunbold Enkhtaivan MGL
Bronze -
Giorgi Sardalashvili GEO
 



6. ROAD CYCLING - M Ind Time Trial
No idea. Depends on TDF but I think Remco will be the winner.

7. ROAD CYCLING - W Ind Time Trial
As well as above. But I also think Dygert from USA will take it.

8. RUGBY SEVENS - M Tournament

I am not an expert in rugby sevens.
9. SHOOTING - Mixed Team 10m Air Rifle


Gold – China
Silver – Indie
Bronze – Turkey
 

 



10. SKATEBOARDING - M Street
No idea.

11. SWIMMING - M 400m Free


Gold – Samuel Short AUS
Silver – Ahmed Hafnaoui TUN
Bronze – Lukas Martens GER
 
 



12. SWIMMING - W 400m Free
Gold – Ariarne Titmus AUS
Silver – Katie Ledecky USA
Bronze – Erika Fairweather NZL


 

13. SWIMMING - W 4x100m Free Relay


Gold – Australia
Silver – USA
Bronze – China
 
 

14. SWIMMING - M 4x100m Free Relay


 
Gold – Australia
Silver – Italy
Bronze – USA
 
 

 

Day 3, Mon, 29.07
 
28. ARCHERY - M Team
 
1. Korea Rep.
2. China
3. Turkey
 
 
29. ARTISTIC GYMNASTICS - M Team
 
1. China
2. Japan
3. Bulgaria
 
 
30. CANOE SLALOM - M C1
 
1. Benjamin Savsek SLO
2. Lukas Rohan CZE
3. Nicolas Gestin FRA
 
 
31. DIVING - M Synchro 10m Platform
 
1. CHina
2. Ukraine
3. Mexico
 
 
32. EQUESTRIAN - Eventing Team
 
1. Germany
2. United States
3. Great Britain
 
Team GB gets gold with a very narrow win.
 
33. EQUESTRIAN - Eventing Individual
 
1. Julia Krajewski GER
2. Yasmin Ingham GBR
3. Tim Price NZL
 
34. FENCING - M Foil Ind
 
1. Alexander Massialas USA
2. Tommaso Marini ITA
3. Gerek Meinhardt USA
 
 
35. FENCING - W Sabre Ind
 
1. Misaki Emura JPN
2. Sara Balzer FRA
3. Despina Gkhontura GRE
 
 
36. JUDO - W -57kg
 
1. Christa Deguchi CAN
2. Haruka Funakubo JPN
3. Lkhagvatogoogiin Enkhriilen MGL
3. Nora Gjakova KOS
 
Deguchi wins internal Canadian battle in this category and then goes to win first gold for Canada in Paris.
 
37. JUDO - M -73kg
 
1. Soichi Hashimoto JPN
2. Nils Stump SUI
3. Hidayat Heydarov AZE
3. Murodjon Yuldoshev UZB
 
Another silver for Italy in Paris.
 
38. MOUNTAIN BIKE - M Cross-country
 
1. Tom Pidcock GBR
2. Nino Schurter SUI
3. David Valero Serrano ESP
 
 
39. SHOOTING - M Air Rifle
 
1. Haoran Yang CHN
2. Zalan Pekler HUN
3. Frantisek Smetana CZE
 
 
40. SHOOTING - W Air Rifle
 
1. Han Jiayu CHN
2. Zhilin Wang CHN
3. Seonaid McIntosh GBR
 
 
41. SWIMMING - W 400m IM
 
1. Summer McIntosh CAN
2. Katie Grimes USA
3. Jenna Forrester AUS
 
 

42. SWIMMING - M 200m Free
 
1. DAvid Popovichi ROU
2. Tom Dean GBR
3. Matthew Richards GBR
 
 
43. SWIMMING - M 100m Back
 
1. Ryan Murphy USA
2. Thomas Ceccon ITA
3. Hunter Armstrong USA
 
 
44. SWIMMING - W 100m Breast
 
1. Ruta Meilutyte LTU
2. Tatjana Schoenmakers RSA
3. Lydia Jacoby USA
 
45. SWIMMING - W 200m Free
 
1. Mollie O'Callaghan AUS
2. Ariarne Titmus AUS
3. Summer McIntosh CAN

Day 2, Sun 28.07
 
15. ARCHERY - W Team
 
1. Korea Rep.
2. Germany
3. Mexico
 
 
16. CANOE SLALOM - W K1
 
1. Jessica Fox AUS
2. Ricarda Funk GER
3. Klaudia Zwolińska POL
 
 
17. FENCING - M Epee Ind
 
1. Davide Di Veroli ITA
2. Mate Tamas Koch HUN
3. Gergely Siklosi HUN
 
 
18. FENCING - W Foil Ind
 
1. Lee Kiefer USA
2. Alice Volpi ITA
3. Arianna Errigo ITA
 
19. JUDO - W -52kg
 
1. Uta Abe JPN
2. Diyora Keldiyorova UZB
3. Amandine Bouchard FRA
3. Distria Krasniqi KOS
 
 
20. JUDO - M -66kg
 
1. Hifumi Abe JPN
2. Denis Vieru MDA
3. Davide Garcia Torne ESP
3. Baskhuu Youndoperenlei MGL
 
 
21. MOUNTAIN BIKE - W Cross-country
 
1. Pauline Ferrand-Prevot FRA
2. Alessandra Keller SUI
3. Jolanda Neff SUI
 
Ferrand-Prevot gets gold only after great final lap for her.
 
22. SHOOTING - M Air Pistol
 
1. Bowen Zhang CHN
2. Damir Mikec SRB
3. Ismail Keles TUR
 
 
 
23. SHOOTING - W Air Pistol
 
1. Jiang Ranxin CHN
2. Li Xue CHN
3. Anna Korakaki GRE
 
Maybe Klaudia Breś will make a surprise medal for Poland?
 
24. SKATEBOARDING - W Street
 
1. Rayssa Leal BRA
2. Momji Nisihiya JPN
3. Chloe Covell AUS
 
No idea so I copy your podium.
 
25. SWIMMING - M 400m IM
 
1. Leon Marchand FRA
2. Carson Foster USA
3. Daiya Seto JPN
 
French go mad as Marchand gets his 1st gold here.
 
26. SWIMMING - W 100m Fly
 
1. Yufei Zhang CHN
2. Margaret MacNeil CAN
3. Torri Huske USA
 
 
27. SWIMMING - M 100m Breast
 
1. Qin Haiyang CHN
2. Nicolo Martinenghi ITA
3. Arno Kamminga NED

Hello Rafał,
My opinion about first day.
1.      DIVING - W Synchro 3m Springboard

Gold – China
Silver – Great Britain
Bronze - Italy


2.      FENCING - W Epee Ind

Gold – Marie-Florence Candassamy FRA
Silver – Alberta Santuccio ITA
Bronze – Vivian Kong HGK
 
3. FENCING - M Sabre Ind
Gold – Marie-Florence Candassamy FRA
Silver – Alberta Santuccio ITA
Bronze – Vivian Kong HGK

 

4. JUDO - W -48kg


Gold –  Natsumi Tsunoda JPN
Silver – Assunta Scutto ITA
Bronze – Shirine Boukli FRA
Bronze -
Catarina Costa POR
 

5. JUDO - M -60kg
Gold – Ryuju Nagayama JPN
Silver – Harim Lee KOR
Bronze – Ariunbold Enkhtaivan MGL
Bronze -
Giorgi Sardalashvili GEO
 



6. ROAD CYCLING - M Ind Time Trial
No idea. Depends on TDF but I think Remco will be the winner.

7. ROAD CYCLING - W Ind Time Trial
As well as above. But I also think Dygert from USA will take it.

8. RUGBY SEVENS - M Tournament

I am not an expert in rugby sevens.
9. SHOOTING - Mixed Team 10m Air Rifle


Gold – China
Silver – Indie
Bronze – Turkey
 

 



10. SKATEBOARDING - M Street
No idea.

11. SWIMMING - M 400m Free


Gold – Samuel Short AUS
Silver – Ahmed Hafnaoui TUN
Bronze – Lukas Martens GER
 
 



12. SWIMMING - W 400m Free
Gold – Ariarne Titmus AUS
Silver – Katie Ledecky USA
Bronze – Erika Fairweather NZL


 

13. SWIMMING - W 4x100m Free Relay


Gold – Australia
Silver – USA
Bronze – China
 
 

14. SWIMMING - M 4x100m Free Relay


 
Gold – Australia
Silver – Italy
Bronze – USA