Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024 Medal Predictions Road to Paris 2024

[Josh 5,806]

7 minutes ago, Topicmaster1010 said:

No medal for McIntosh in the 400 free

[Laraja 1,376]

I really would like to find out where Gracenote is predicting 9 gold for us

 

I can't even take 5 or 6 as guaranteed, and they are betting almost twice haha

[copravolley 46]

11 hours ago, phelps said:

 is going to win 13 gold medals in swimming only...plus all the rest

 

and I really hope  is NOT going to win all those gold medals (also,  getting more than 12...the minimum target is a record breaking 15)

I will consider any number of medals: 40+ as a success but I would like to win more gold medals than in Tokyo: 12-13. This will 99% result in a place around 8th in the medal classification. This performance will be OK for me. For now, however, we need to qualify as many people as possible for the Olympic Games, because in the case of Italy, quantity often translates into quality.

Edited April 17 by copravolley

[mpjmcevoy 203]

10 hours ago, Nickyc707 said:

The Team Skeet silver will also be a challenge given that they haven't actually qualified a male skeet shooter yet.

 

On the other hand Gracenote has underestimated GB's medal total at the last three Games so their value has to be taken with the proverbial pinch of salt.

Gracenote produce via an algorithim, not by analysis, and they routinely and repeatedly have significantly underestimated GBRs gold numbers, almost worse than any other team, Their system is fun, but clearly does not account for some idiosyncrasies of GBR's Olympic targeting. On top of that, they routinely seem to give medals to GB in events they aren't technically in, or athletes who've already withdrawn or are likely to.

[rybak 2,694]

 medalists according Gracenote:

 

Gold:

 

Women's K4 500m in sprint canoeing, Wojciech Nowicki (athletics - men;s hammer throw), Aleksandra Mirosław (sport climbing - women's speed), Men's team in indoor volleyball

 

Silver:

 

Iga Świątek (tennis - women's singles), Paweł Fajdek (athletics - men's hammer throw - for me it's wishful thinking ), Katarzyna Wasick (swimming - women's 50m freestyle - even more wishful thinking ), Karolina Naja/Anna Puławska (Women's K2 500 in sprint canoeing), men's quadruple sculls in rowing

 

Bronze:

Natalia Kaczmarek (athletics - women's 400m), women's team epée in fencing

[Faramir 62]

13 hours ago, Art Art said:

How much does it cost?

don't know, you need to contact them 

[Federer91 2,150]

Gracenote are predicting 5 medals for team BG, which more or less is what should be expected. Though the configuration is to be seen.

 

They are predicting 1 silver and 4 bronzes:

 

- Silver for the Group in Rhythmic Gymnastics;

- Bronze for Stilyana Nikolova in Rhythmic Gymnastics individual;

- Bronze for Svetlana Staneva in Boxing W57 kg;

- Bronze for Bozhidar Andreev in Weightlifting M73 kg;

- Bronze for Semen Novikov in Wrestling GR87 kg.

 

Interestingly, Gracenote are not seeing any medal for Karlos Nasar in weightlifting 89kg  

[copravolley 46]

55 minutes ago, Federer91 said:

Gracenote are predicting 5 medals for team BG, which more or less is what should be expected. Though the configuration is to be seen.

 

They are predicting 1 silver and 4 bronzes:

 

- Silver for the Group in Rhythmic Gymnastics;

- Bronze for Stilyana Nikolova in Rhythmic Gymnastics individual;

- Bronze for Svetlana Staneva in Boxing W57 kg;

- Bronze for Bozhidar Andreev in Weightlifting M73 kg;

- Bronze for Semen Novikov in Wrestling GR87 kg.

 

Interestingly, Gracenote are not seeing any medal for Karlos Nasar in weightlifting 89kg  

Bulgaria's best times in sports were at the turn of the 1980s and 1990s: in 1988 you won 35 medals, including 10 gold (I don`t count 1980 due to the boycott of many west countries). Later, until the beginning of the 21st century, you won a dozen or so medals in every games and suddenly there was a great crisis from Beijing 2008. Why? In theory, after joining the EU, the country should develop and become richer, which means there will also be more money for sports. The same problem concerned Romania but I see that they are slowly rising up, e.g. in rowing.

[JoshMartini007 2,227]

8 minutes ago, copravolley said:

Bulgaria's best times in sports were at the turn of the 1980s and 1990s: in 1988 you won 35 medals, including 10 gold (I don`t count 1980 due to the boycott of many west countries). Later, until the beginning of the 21st century, you won a dozen or so medals in every games and suddenly there was a great crisis from Beijing 2008. Why? In theory, after joining the EU, the country should develop and become richer, which means there will also be more money for sports. The same problem concerned Romania but I see that they are slowly rising up, e.g. in rowing.

 

For nations like Bulgaria, sport investment in the 70s-90s was due to national pride and a rallying cry by the government to lower the amount of dissident despite not making the lives of the people much better.

 

When a country decides they want to invest in infrastructure and making the lives of the people better then luxury things like sport investment takes a hit. Once luxury can be affordable then sport investment goes up.

 

That's why you see countries that are actually developing tend to do poorly in sport rather than overcompensating and looking flashy.

[dodge 706]

Is someone genuinely asking why Eastern bloc countries fell off in terms of sporting results after the arrival of democracy? 
 

East Germany only competed in 5 Olympics in rowing, but they won 48 medals, including 33 gold. They were only overtaken by the US in 2016 in the all time medal list (and they’re still ahead of the rest)

 

In Athletics, there’s still several European records that exist since the 80s with East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria and the USSR all involved. 
 

This isn’t a slight on the fine people from Eastern Europe on here and the current athletes doing their best.

 

But the answer to why they were so strong in the 1980s is doping. No one disputes this.