Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024 Medal Predictions

Jinzha · April 14

On 7/27/2023 at 4:10 PM, Jinzha said:

My own medal prediction for , with pessimistic and optimistic ranges:

Archery: 0

Athletics: 2-4 - Sifan Hassan (maybe 2x), Femke Bol and enough contenders that could medal on a good day (4x400m women, Jessica Schilder, Jorinde van Klinken, Anouk Vetter).

Beach Volleyball: 0

Breaking: 1-2 - India, Menno and Lee can all podium I believe, even if I've never watched this sport.

Cycling BMX: 0-2 - hoping for Niek Kimmann or Merel Smulders, but somehow I'm fearing an all French podium on the mens side and Smulders is not a clear favorite either.

Cycling mtb: 1 - if Puck Pieterse keeps her form into next year... what a monster!!

Cycling road: 2 - womens road race and time trial. Medals should be expected, even if Kopecky and Reusser are probably favorites for gold.

Cycling track: 2-4 - mens team sprint, Harry Lavreysen sprint and keirin, Maike van der Duijn omnium

Equestrian: 1-2 - I avoid watching animal sports, but I believe Dinja van Liere and the jumping team are medal contenders.

Field hockey: 1-2 - the women team will surely reach the final when I cheer them on live in Paris at the semifinal, not as confident about the mens team though.

Football: 0

Gymnastics: 0

Handball: 0

Judo: 0-2 - Hoping for Joanne van Lieshout, other contenders are Sanne van Dijke, Guusje Steenhuis, Michael Korrel and Jur Spijkers. Going to lose a lot of contenders to home favorites probably.

Rowing: 3-5 - w1x, w4x, w4-, m4x and m2x I believe, but we'll have to see the new boats in action some more.

Sailing: 2-4 - 49er, 49er(fx), Marit Bouwmeester and maybe whoever qualifies in mens Foil

Swimming: 1-3 - Sharon van Rouwendaal, Arno Kamminga, Marrit Steenbergen and Tes Schouten can hopefully win 3 medals between them, but I wouldn't be suprised if only we end with only a bronze instead.

Volleyball: 0

Waterpolo: 0-1 - hopefully we can hire Italy to eliminate USA for us again, grazie mille in advance!

Other sports: 0 - maybe I forgot someone, but I don't think we have any other contenders.

Surprise medals: 1-2 - the best medals are the unexpected ones!

Total: 17-35 - I'll be happy if it ends up in the middle with 25.

I'd say we can expect about 8-10 golds, potentially from: Sifan Hassan, Harry Lavreysen, Puck Pieterse, Demi Vollering/Lorena Wiebes (depending on the race), Karolien Florijn, Van Aanholt/Duetz (49erFx), Lambriex/Van Werken (49er), Marit Bouwmeester and a suprise gold (Femke Bol? Marrit Steenbergen? India Sardjoe?)

With just over 100 days to go I decided to do another :NED medal prediction, but this time on a day to day basis.

Day 1 Saturday 27 July (0-1 medals)

Road cycling: Ellen van Dijk (W time trial)

Day 2 Sunday 28 July (0-2 medals)

Mountain bike: Puck Pieterse (W cross country)

Swimming: Arno Kamminga or Caspar Corbeau (M 100m breast)

Day 3 Monday 29 July (0-1 medals)

Swimming: Tes Schouten (W 100m breast)

Day 4 Tuesday 30 July (0-1 medals)

Judo: Joanne van Lieshout (W -63kg)

Day 5 Wednesday 31 July (3-5 medals)

Judo: Sanne van Dijke (W -70kg)

Rowing: M4x and W4x

Swimming: Marrit Steenbergen (W 100m free) and Caspar Corbeau (M 200m breast)

Day 6 Thursday 1 August (4-7 medals)

Judo: Michael Korrel (M -100kg) and Guusje Steenhuis (W -78kg)

Rowing: M2x and W4-

Sailing: Duetz/Van Aanholt (W skiff) and Van de Werken/Lambriex (M skiff)

Swimming: Tes Schouten (W 200m breast)

Day 7 Friday 2 August (2-5 medals)

Archery: Mixed team

BMX racing: Niek Kimmann or Laura Smulders

Judo: Marit Kamps (W +78kg)

Rowing: W2-

Sailing: Luc van Opzeeland (M IQFoil)

Day 8 Saturday 3 August (3-5 medals)

Athletics: Mixed 4x400m relay

Road cycling: Mathieu van der Poel (M road race)

Rowing: W1x, M1x and M8-

Day 9 Sunday 4 August (0-2 medals)

Equestrian: Dinja van Liere (dressage)

Road cycling: Lorena Wiebes or Demi Vollering (W road race)

Day 10 Monday 5 August (0-1 medals)

Athletics: Sifan Hassan (W 5000m?)

Day 11 Tuesday 6 August (1-2 medals)

Sailing: Marit Bouwmeester (W dinghy)

Track Cycling: M team sprint

Day 12 Wednesday 7 August (0-1 medals)

Sailing: Laila van der Meer / Bjarne Bouwer (mixed multihull)

Day 13 Thursday 8 August (2-4 medals)

Athletics: Femke Bol (W 400mH)

Hockey: Men’s team

Swimming: Sharon van Rouwendaal (W 10 km open water)

Track cycling: Hetty van der Wouw (W Keirin)

Day 14 Friday 9 August (2-4 medals)

Athletics: Lieke Klaver (W 400m)

Breaking: India Sardjoe (W breaking)

Hockey: Women’s team

Track Cycling: Harrie Lavreysen (M sprint)

Day 15 Saturday 10 August (1-3 medals)

Athletics: Women’s 4x400m relay and Abdi Nageeye (M marathon)

Water polo: Women’s team

Day 16 Sunday 11 August (1-2 medals)

Athletics: Sifan Hassan (W marathon??)

Track Cycling: Harrie Lavreysen (M keirin)

Any day (0-2 medals)

Surprise medals: preferrably Niels Laros (M 1500m) and W handball or volleyball team (what can I say, the more surprising the better)

Total prediction (19-47 medals)

+/- 10 golds

+/- 11 silvers

+/- 12 bronze

I feel like the day-by-day version made the numbers too optimistic. Some names I'm thinking more like 'one out of these 4 judoka's will probably win a medal', but it shows as a medal chances on 4 days, instead of just 1 expected medal.

Overall I'm a bit more optimistic than the 25 medals I predicted last time, I'll say 30 medals this time!

Edited April 14 by Jinzha
Added beach volleyball

Josh · April 14

5 minutes ago, Jinzha said:

With just over 100 days to go I decided to do another medal prediction, but this time on a day to day basis.

Day 1 Saturday 27 July (0-1 medals)

Road cycling: Ellen van Dijk (W time trial)

Day 2 Sunday 28 July (0-2 medals)

Mountain bike: Puck Pieterse (W cross country)

Swimming: Arno Kamminga or Caspar Corbeau (M 100m breast)

Day 3 Monday 29 July (0-1 medals)

Swimming: Tes Schouten (W 100m breast)

Day 4 Tuesday 30 July (0-1 medals)

Judo: Joanne van Lieshout (W -63kg)

Day 5 Wednesday 31 July (3-5 medals)

Judo: Sanne van Dijke (W -70kg)

Rowing: M4x and W4x

Swimming: Marrit Steenbergen (W 100m free) and Caspar Corbeau (M 200m breast)

Day 6 Thursday 1 August (4-7 medals)

Judo: Michael Korrel (M -100kg) and Guusje Steenhuis (W -78kg)

Rowing: M2x and W4-

Sailing: Duetz/Van Aanholt (W skiff) and Van de Werken/Lambriex (M skiff)

Swimming: Tes Schouten (W 200m breast)

Day 7 Friday 2 August (2-5 medals)

Archery: Mixed team

BMX racing: Niek Kimmann or Laura Smulders

Judo: Marit Kamps (W +78kg)

Rowing: W2-

Sailing: Luc van Opzeeland (M IQFoil)

Day 8 Saturday 3 August (3-5 medals)

Athletics: Mixed 4x400m relay

Road cycling: Mathieu van der Poel (M road race)

Rowing: W1x, M1x and M8-

Day 9 Sunday 4 August (0-2 medals)

Equestrian: Dinja van Liere (dressage)

Road cycling: Lorena Wiebes or Demi Vollering (W road race)

Day 10 Monday 5 August (0-1 medals)

Athletics: Sifan Hassan (W 5000m?)

Day 11 Tuesday 6 August (1-2 medals)

Sailing: Marit Bouwmeester (W skiff)

Track Cycling: M team sprint

Day 12 Wednesday 7 August (0-1 medals)

Sailing: Laila van der Meer / Bjarne Bouwer (mixed multihull)

Day 13 Thursday 8 August (2-4 medals)

Athletics: Femke Bol (W 400mH)

Hockey: Men’s team

Swimming: Sharon van Rouwendaal (W 10 km open water)

Track cycling: Hetty van der Wouw (W Keirin)

Day 14 Friday 9 August (2-4 medals)

Athletics: Lieke Klaver (W 400m)

Breaking: India Sardjoe (W breaking)

Hockey: Women’s team

Track Cycling: Harrie Lavreysen (M sprint)

Day 15 Saturday 10 August (1-3 medals)

Athletics: Women’s 4x400m relay and Abdi Nageeye (M marathon)

Water polo: Women’s team

Day 16 Sunday 11 August (1-2 medals)

Athletics: Sifan Hassan (W marathon??)

Track Cycling: Harrie Lavreysen (M keirin)

Any day (0-2 medals)

Surprise medals: preferrably Niels Laros (M 1500m) and W handball or volleyball team (what can I say, the more surprising the better)

Total prediction (19-47 medals)

+/- 10 golds

+/- 11 silvers

+/- 12 bronze

I feel like the day-by-day version made the numbers too optimistic. Some names I'm thinking more like 'one out of these 4 judoka's will probably win a medal', but it shows as a medal chances on 4 days, instead of just 1 expected medal.

Overall I'm a bit more optimistic than the 25 medals I predicted last time, I'll say 30 medals this time!

No mention for your beach volleyball athletes? I think you have a good chance at a medal in either the men’s or the women’s tournaments.

Edited April 14 by Josh

Jinzha · April 14

Bonus fun fact: the first :NED gold medal winner will be the 150 ^th Dutch gold medal at the Olympics. I'll go ahead and predict a total of 10 gold medals, in chronological order:

Day 5: Rowing M4x (150!!)

Day 6: Rowing M2x, Sailing M skiff

Day 7: Luc van Opzeeland (M IQFoil)

Day 8: Mathieu van der Poel (M road race), Karolien Florijn (Rowing W1x)

Day 11: M team sprint

Day 13: Femke Bol (W 400mH)

Day 14: Hockey women's team, Harrie Lavreysen (M sprint)

What can I say, I'm an optimist and I like Van der Poel, Bol and Lavreysen :cheer:

Jinzha · April 14

1 minute ago, Josh said:

No mention for your beach volleyball athletes? I think you have a good chance at a medal in either the men’s or the women’s tournaments.

Good point! Boermans/De Groot is a serious chance that I missed, adding it now. I don't think Stam/Schoon will medal, they are consistently top 8, but I feel like they're just slightly lacking that final edge.

Josh · April 14

9 minutes ago, Jinzha said:

Bonus fun fact: the first gold medal winner will be the 150 ^th Dutch gold medal at the Olympics. I'll go ahead and predict a total of 10 gold medals, in chronological order:

For us it’ll be :CAN second gold medal winner that would be our 150th gold at the Olympics.

I’ll share my day-by-day predictions including by medal colour later.

Edited April 14 by Josh

Jinzha · April 14

1 minute ago, Josh said:

For us it’ll be second gold medal winners that would be our 150th gold at the Olympics.

I’ll share my day-by-day predictions including by medal colour later.

What a nice coincidence! An easy extra honerary title for Summer McIntosh I presume

copravolley · April 14

I think that: Italy, The Netherlands and Germany will be close to each other on medal table, just like in Tokio 2021. On the other hand, France will get a much better result because of being the host team.

Edited April 14 by copravolley

Josh · April 15

Approaching 100 days to go, my predictions for :CAN
Day 1

20:55: Swimming - Women’s 400m Freestyle Final - Summer McIntosh (Silver)

21:37: Swimming - Women’s 4x100m Freestyle Relay Final - (Bronze)

Day 2

20:45: Swimming - Women’s 100m Butterfly Final - Maggie MacNeil (Silver)

Day 3

17:18-17:38: Judo - Women’s 57kg - Christa Deguchi (Gold)

20:30: Swimming - Women’s 400m Individual Medley - Summer McIntosh (Gold)

Bronze in the women’s 200m freestyle if she chooses to do the double. She’ll have almost an hour and a half between both so it seems doable (but she’s also probably going to be swimming a rigorous schedule so maybe she’ll skip it)

Day 4

17:18-17:38: Judo - Men’s 81kg - Francois Gauthier-Drapeau (Bronze)

17:49-18:09: Judo - Women’s 63kg - Catherine Beauchemin Pinard (Silver)

20:57: Swimming - Women’s 100m Backstroke - Kylie Masse (Bronze)

Day 5

20:36: Swimming - Men’s 200m Butterfly Final - Illya Kharun (Silver, behind Milak)

Day 6

20:30: Swimming - Women’s 200m Butterfly Final - Summer McIntosh (Gold)

Day 8

15:30: Artistic Gymnastics - Men’s Floor - Felix Dolci (Bronze)

20:30: Swimming - Men’s 100m Butterfly Final - Josh Liendo (Bronze)

20:59: Swimming - Women’s 200m Individual Medley - Summer McIntosh (Gold)

21:45: Athletics - Men’s Decathlon - Pierce LePage (Gold)

Day 9

19:35: Swimming - Women’s 4x100m Medley Relay Final (Bronze)

20:30: Athletics - Men’s Hammer Throw Final - Ethan Katzberg (Silver)

Day 10

21:00/22:05: 3x3 Basketball - Women’s Tournament Medal Matches (Gold)

Day 11

20:00: Athletics - Women’s Hammer Throw Final - Camryn Rogers (Bronze)

Day 12

20:30: Athletics - Men’s 200m Final - Andre DeGrasse (Silver)

Day 13

15:00: Weightlifting - Women’s 59kg - Maude Charron (Bronze)

19:27: Track Cycling - Men’s Omnium - Dylan Bibic (Silver)

19:40: Athletics - Women’s Shot Put Final - Sarah Mitton (Bronze)

19:45: Athletics - Men’s 4x100m Relay Final - Canada (Bronze)

21:00: Beach Volleyball - Women’s Bronze Medal Match - Melissa Humana-Parades/Brandie Wilkerson (Bronze)

21:07: Taekwondo - Women’s 57kg Bronze Medal Match - Skylar Park (Bronze)

Day 14

11:00: Basketball - Men’s Bronze Medal Game - Canada (Bronze)

13:50: Canoe Sprint - Women’s C1-200m - Katie Vincent (Bronze)

19:25: Athletics - Men’s 800m Final - Marco Arop (Gold)

21:23: Breaking - B-Boys - Phil Wizard (Gold)

22:34: Boxing - Women’s 75kg Gold Medal Bout - Tammara Thibeault (Gold)

Left off some other medal chances, think at least one other name/team that I haven’t mentioned will make the podium. Still very optimistic with this prediction considering our best ever result is 24 medals at Tokyo (I picked 30 events for Canada to win medals in) but we have a talent in McIntosh now.

Edited April 15 by Josh

Jinzha · April 15

3 hours ago, Josh said:

Approaching 100 days to go, my predictions for
Day 1

20:55: Swimming - Women’s 400m Freestyle Final - Summer McIntosh (Silver)

21:37: Swimming - Women’s 4x100m Freestyle Relay Final - (Bronze)

Day 2

20:45: Swimming - Women’s 100m Butterfly Final - Maggie MacNeil (Silver)

Day 3

17:18-17:38: Judo - Women’s 57kg - Christa Deguchi (Gold)

20:30: Swimming - Women’s 400m Individual Medley - Summer McIntosh (Gold)

Bronze in the women’s 200m freestyle if she chooses to do the double. She’ll have almost an hour and a half between both so it seems doable (but she’s also probably going to be swimming a rigorous schedule so maybe she’ll skip it)

Day 4

17:18-17:38: Judo - Men’s 81kg - Francois Gauthier-Drapeau (Bronze)

17:49-18:09: Judo - Women’s 63kg - Catherine Beauchemin Pinard (Silver)

20:57: Swimming - Women’s 100m Backstroke - Kylie Masse (Bronze)

Day 5

20:36: Swimming - Men’s 200m Butterfly Final - Illya Kharun (Silver, behind Milak)

Day 6

20:30: Swimming - Women’s 200m Butterfly Final - Summer McIntosh (Gold)

Day 8

15:30: Artistic Gymnastics - Men’s Floor - Felix Dolci (Bronze)

20:30: Swimming - Men’s 100m Butterfly Final - Josh Liendo (Bronze)

20:59: Swimming - Women’s 200m Individual Medley - Summer McIntosh (Gold)

21:45: Athletics - Men’s Decathlon - Pierce LePage (Gold)

Day 9

19:35: Swimming - Women’s 4x100m Medley Relay Final (Bronze)

20:30: Athletics - Men’s Hammer Throw Final - Ethan Katzberg (Silver)

Day 10

21:00/22:05: 3x3 Basketball - Women’s Tournament Medal Matches (Gold)

Day 11

20:00: Athletics - Women’s Hammer Throw Final - Camryn Rogers (Bronze)

Day 12

20:30: Athletics - Men’s 200m Final - Andre DeGrasse (Silver)

Day 13

15:00: Weightlifting - Women’s 59kg - Maude Charron (Bronze)

19:27: Track Cycling - Men’s Omnium - Dylan Bibic (Silver)

19:40: Athletics - Women’s Shot Put Final - Sarah Mitton (Bronze)

19:45: Athletics - Men’s 4x100m Relay Final - Canada (Bronze)

21:00: Beach Volleyball - Women’s Bronze Medal Match - Melissa Humana-Parades/Brandie Wilkerson (Bronze)

21:07: Taekwondo - Women’s 57kg Bronze Medal Match - Skylar Park (Bronze)

Day 14

11:00: Basketball - Men’s Bronze Medal Game - Canada (Bronze)

13:50: Canoe Sprint - Women’s C1-200m - Katie Vincent (Bronze)

19:25: Athletics - Men’s 800m Final - Marco Arop (Gold)

21:23: Breaking - B-Boys - Phil Wizard (Gold)

22:34: Boxing - Women’s 75kg Gold Medal Bout - Tammara Thibeault (Gold)

Left off some other medal chances, think at least one other name/team that I haven’t mentioned will make the podium. Still very optimistic with this prediction considering our best ever result is 24 medals at Tokyo (I picked 30 events for Canada to win medals in) but we have a talent in McIntosh now.

A talent like McIntosh in swimming really is the difference between a regular Games and a record breaker! Impressive how Canada gets so many of their medals from some of the most competitive sports at the games (swimming and athletics).

OlympicsFan · April 15

On 4/8/2024 at 7:53 PM, Rafa Maciel said:

With the Swimming Champs done, I've got time to look at some of the reporting ahead of the Olympics as media outlets begin to consider medal prospects.

These are the predicted athletics medalists (track only) from Pulse Sports - a Kenyan media outlet. Please don't shoot the messenger - this isn't an endorsement of their prediction. I share it purely for information and discussion.

Men's 100m:

Noah Lyles

Ferdinand Omanyala

Letsile Tebogo

Men's 200m:

Noah Lyles

Letsile Tebogo

Zharnel Hughes

Men's 400m:

Steven Gardiner

Antonio Watson

Muzala Samukonga

Men's 800m:

Emmanuel Wanyonyi

Marco Arop

Emmanuel Korir

Men's 1500m:

Jakob Ingebrigtsen

Josh Kerr

Yared Nuguse

Men's 5000m:

Jakob Ingebrigtsen

Jacob Krop

Yomif Kejelcha

Men's 10000m:

Joshua Cheptegei

Jacob Kiplimo

Daniel Simiu

Men's 3000m Steeple:

Soufiane El Bakkali

Lamecha Girma

Simon Koech

Men's 110m Hurdles:

Grant Holloway

Hansle Parchment

Rasheed Broadbell

Men's 400m Hurdles:

Karsten Warholm

Rai Benjamin

Alison Dos Santos

Men's Marathon:

Benson Kipruto

Sisay Lemma

Eliud Kipchoge

Women's 100m:

Sha'Carri Richardson

Elaine Thompson-Herah

Shelly-Anne Fraser-Pryce

Women's 200m:

Shericka Jackson

Elaine Thompson-Herah

Gabby Thomas

Women's 400m:

Shaunae Miller-Uibo

Marileidy Paulino

Salwa Eid Naser

Women's 800m:

Mary Moraa

Aithing Mu

Keely Hodgkinson

Women's 1500m:

Faith Kipyegon

Women's 5000m:

Faith Kipyegon

Beatrice Chebet

Letesenbet Gidey

Women's 10000m:

Gudaf Tsegay

Letesenbet Gidey

Sifan Hassan

Women's 3000m Steeple:

Beatrice Chepkoech

Winifred Yavi

Faith Cherotich

Men's 110m Hurdles:

Tobi Amusan

Deveyne Charlton

Cyrena Samba-Mayela

Men's 400m Hurdles:

Femke Bol

Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone

Rushell Clayton

Women's Marathon:

Tigst Assefa

Peres Jepchirchir

Amane Beriso