Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024 Medal Predictions

[LDOG 2,468]

8 minutes ago, Rafa Maciel said:

Definitely not mine - they are from Gracenote Nielsen. They release a virtual medal table for every Olympic and with it being a year until Paris, this is their initial projections. Normally they will release a new version each month in the run up to the games. 

Can't you just post a link to it then? I mean, isn't making a post per country too much work?

[Rafa Maciel 1,658]

4 minutes ago, LDOG said:

Can't you just post a link to it then? I mean, isn't making a post per country too much work?

They only post the headline numbers - media outlets have to pay for the sport breakdown so the only way to find the information is to pull it from various sources. 

[PatyOlympic 43]

50 minutes ago, Rafa Maciel said:

 5th Place on Table with 54 Medals

 

Gold: 12

Hifume Abe - Judo: Men's -66Kg

Uta Abe - Judo: Women's -52Kg

Saki Niizoe - Judo: Women's -70Kg

Judo Team Event

Ami Yuasa - Breaking: Women's Breaking

Daiki Hashimoto - Artistic Gymnastics: Men's Individual All Around

Daiki Hashimoto - Artistic Gymnastics: Men's Horizontal Bar

 

 

Silver: 21

 

Bronze: 21

 

Do you have the  breakdown?

[Triplecast 168]

   43 Gold Medals seems way too optimistic to me, especially with what I’m seeing this week in swimming and water polo.  I have not seen the event by event predictions, but when aquatics produces around 1/3  of your gold medals almost every recent Games, I see a big drop in golds next year.    

[JoshMartini007 2,765]

We should do a comparison against the Latest World Championships Medal Table, if they aren't any more accurate then doing basic counting of defending champions then their method isn't good.

[OlympicsFan 860]

Always funny to see how terrible those predictions are. For team GB:

Gold for Gadirova? Don't see it.

Gold for Hodgkinson? Would still favor Mu.

Silver for Muir? Would be rather surprising ...

Silver for Laugher? First he needs to qualify ...

Silver in men's 10 m synchronised? Possible, but they aren't the favorites for silver.

Silver for Peaty? I think him retiring is more likely.

Silver for Greenbank? Interesting prediction after he didn't even qualify for worlds ...

Silver in the 4 x 100 m mixed medley? Seems rather unlikely ... USA, Australia and China are all clearly ahead.

Bronze for Asher-Smith (200 m)? Would be a huge comeback, but we will see.

Bronze for the men's 4 x 100 m medley relay? Seems rather unlikely unless Peaty comes back sharp (which doesn't seem likely).

 

[OlympicsFan 860]

13 hours ago, Jinzha said:

Thank you, AD has the 13 gold medals listed:

• Lavreysen (team sprint, sprint, keirin)
• Ellen van Dijk (road cycling time trial)
• Sifan Hassan (10.000m)
• Femke Bol (400mH)
• Field hockey teams (men and women)
• Sailing 49er (men and women)
• Horse jumping team
• Karolien Florijn (single sculls)
• Sharon van Rouwendaal (open water swimming)

 

Not as odd as I expected, but definitely don't see all of these happening. I fear our team sprint might not win again and it's still a question whether Ellen van Dijk will return at the same level after her pregnancy (and even then Reusser is probably better). Meanwhile McLaughlin is probably missing from the prediction due to a lack of 400mH races or something.

 

On the other hand, there are some potential gold medals not on the list (womens road race, Puck Pieterse, Marit Bouwmeester and the breakdancers).

Van Rouwendaal in the 10 km open water race? Brave prediction ...

[Vektor 3,326]

I will do a proper medal projection for  when all the WChs are done this year. For now I would say 3 gold and overall 12 medals without Milák. But that can change if Milák comes back and is in good shape. And we have yet to see how some of our athletes perform this year. 

Edited July 27, 2023 by Vektor

[Vektor 3,326]

2 hours ago, JoshMartini007 said:

We should do a comparison against the Latest World Championships Medal Table, if they aren't any more accurate then doing basic counting of defending champions then their method isn't good.

The Latest WCh medal table will probably be somewhat fucked up by the Aquatics WCh in Doha. I wouldn't be surprised if that WCh will be far less serious than the one in Fukuoka, but it will be the latest WCh before the Games. 

[Gianlu33 5,276]

6 hours ago, Rafa Maciel said:

Definitely not mine - they are from Gracenote Nielsen. They release a virtual medal table for every Olympic and with it being a year until Paris, this is their initial projections. Normally they will release a new version each month in the run up to the games. 

It could be interesting know what are the 20 Italians gold.. because it's totally crazy