Canada's 2024 Olympics Qualification Discussion

[intoronto 5,641]

Alex Baldoni misses a quota by 0.27 seconds. He had a clean run but then a penalty was added rip

Spoke too soon!

Edited March 14 by intoronto

[james89 847]

3 minutes ago, intoronto said:

Alex Baldoni misses a quota by 0.27 seconds. He had a clean run but then a penalty was added rip

Super disappointing. A young athlete who I suspect will qualify for a future olympics. 

[james89 847]

And Baldoni gets the quota on a review! Woohoo

[Josh 10,517]

Why did Lea Baldoni not compete in the women’s K1 final? Will we see Lois Betteridge double up?

[Josh 10,517]

With the swimming schedule for Paris having been finalized, here’s what a potential schedule for McIntosh might look like (if she races in all her events)

July 27

Morning Session

TBD but session starts at 11:00 Paris Time, and it’s the second event up: Women’s 400m Freestyle Heats

 

Evening Session

20:55: Women’s 400m Freestyle Final

42 minute gap

21:37: Women’s 4x100m Freestyle Relay Final

July 28
Morning Session

TBD but session starts at 11:00 Paris Time, and it’s the fifth event up: Women’s 200m Freestyle Heats

 

Evening Session

22:00: Women’s 200m Freestyle Semifinals

 

July 29

Morning Session

11:00: Women’s 400m Individual Medley Heats

 

Evening Session

20:30: Women’s 400m Individual Medley Final

1 hour 18 minute gap

21:48: Women’s 200m Freestyle Final

 

July 30

Rest day. 
 

July 31

Morning Session

TBD but session starts at 11:00 Paris Time, and it’s the third event up: Women’s 200m Butterfly Heats

 

Evening Session

20:42: Women’s 200m Butterfly Semifinals

 

August 1

Evening Session

20:30: Women’s 200m Butterfly Final

1 hour 18 minute gap

21:48: Women’s 4x200m Relay Final

 

August 2

Morning Session

TBD but session starts at 11:00 Paris Time, and it’s the second event up: Women’s 200m Individual Medley Heats

TBD but session starts at 11:00 Paris Time, and it’s the third event up: Women’s 800m Freestyle Heats

 

Evening Session

21:34: Women’s 200m Individual Medley Semifinals

 

August 3

Evening Session

20:59: Women’s 200m Individual Medley Final

21:09: Women’s 800m Freestyle Final

 

If she wanted to do the 400 free/4x100m free, 200 fly/4x200m free, and 400 IM/200 free doubles it’s doable. Obviously she won’t race in both the 800 free and 200IM, but she’ll probably choose at least one. 

[orangeman 1,990]

18 hours ago, Josh said:

With the swimming schedule for Paris having been finalized, here’s what a potential schedule for McIntosh might look like (if she races in all her events)

July 27

Morning Session

TBD but session starts at 11:00 Paris Time, and it’s the second event up: Women’s 400m Freestyle Heats

 

Evening Session

20:55: Women’s 400m Freestyle Final

42 minute gap

21:37: Women’s 4x100m Freestyle Relay Final

July 28
Morning Session

TBD but session starts at 11:00 Paris Time, and it’s the fifth event up: Women’s 200m Freestyle Heats

 

Evening Session

22:00: Women’s 200m Freestyle Semifinals

 

July 29

Morning Session

11:00: Women’s 400m Individual Medley Heats

 

Evening Session

20:30: Women’s 400m Individual Medley Final

1 hour 18 minute gap

21:48: Women’s 200m Freestyle Final

 

July 30

Rest day. 
 

July 31

Morning Session

TBD but session starts at 11:00 Paris Time, and it’s the third event up: Women’s 200m Butterfly Heats

 

Evening Session

20:42: Women’s 200m Butterfly Semifinals

 

August 1

Evening Session

20:30: Women’s 200m Butterfly Final

1 hour 18 minute gap

21:48: Women’s 4x200m Relay Final

 

August 2

Morning Session

TBD but session starts at 11:00 Paris Time, and it’s the second event up: Women’s 200m Individual Medley Heats

TBD but session starts at 11:00 Paris Time, and it’s the third event up: Women’s 800m Freestyle Heats

 

Evening Session

21:34: Women’s 200m Individual Medley Semifinals

 

August 3

Evening Session

20:59: Women’s 200m Individual Medley Final

21:09: Women’s 800m Freestyle Final

 

If she wanted to do the 400 free/4x100m free, 200 fly/4x200m free, and 400 IM/200 free doubles it’s doable. Obviously she won’t race in both the 800 free and 200IM, but she’ll probably choose at least one. 

I would guess that she won't do the 800. 

[Josh 10,517]

On 3/11/2024 at 2:02 PM, Josh said:

I’ll update this in parts, I can’t be bothered to do it all right now. When it’s fully finished I’ll quote myself so all of you can see (and share your opinions)

 

Archery (2) - We’ve already secured a men’s quota. We should secure a women’s quota through the Pan Am Qualifier. 
 

Artistic Swimming (8) - Already qualified a full team. 
 

Athletics (43) - Additional 27 athletes through the OQS and Road To Paris Ranking. 

 

Full Breakdown:

 

Men’s 100m- Andre DeGrasse, Brendon Rodney, Jerome Blake (+1)

Men’s 200m- Andre DeGrasse, Aaron Brown, Brendon Rodney

Men’s 400m- Christopher Morales-Williams

Men’s 800m- Marco Arop

Men’s 1500m- Charles Philibert-Thiboutot, Kieran Lumb (+1)

Men’s 5000m- Benjamin Flanagan, Mo Ahmed

Men’s 10000m- Mo Ahmed

Men’s 3000m Steeplechase- Jean-Simon Desgagnes (+1)

Men’s Marathon- Cameron Levins, Rory Linkletter

Men’s 20km Race Walk- Evan Dunfee

Men’s 4x100m Relay- Andre DeGrasse, Brendon Rodney, Aaron Brown, Jerome Blake, Malachi Murray (+1)

Men’s Decathlon- Damian Warner, Pierce LePage

Men’s Hammer Throw- Ethan Kazberg, Adam Keenan, Rowan Hamilton (+2)

Women’s 100m- Khamica Bingham (+1)

Women’s 200m- Jacqueline Madogo (+1)

Women’s 400m- Madeline Price, Grace Konrad, Kyra Constantine (+3)

Women’s 800m- Jazz Shukla (+1)

Women’s 1500m- Gabriela De Bues Stafford, Lucia Stafford (+2)

Women’s 5000m- Julie An Staeli, Brianna Scott (+2)

Women’s 100m Hurdles- Mariam Abdul-Rashid, Michelle Harrison (+2)

Women’s 400m Hurdles- Brooke Overholt, Savannah Sutherland, Sage Watson (+3)

Women’s 3000m Steeplechase- Celi McCabe, Regan Yee, Grace Fetherstonhaugh (+3)
Women’s 4x400m Relay- Zoe Sherar, Aiyana Stiverne, Savannah Sutherland, Sage Watson, Kyra Constantine, Grace Konrad (+2)

Women’s Pole Vault- Alysha Newman, Anicka Newell (+1)

Women’s Marathon- Malindi Elmore

Women’s Hammer Throw- Camryn Rogers, Jillian Weir (+1)

Women’s Shot Put- Sarah Mitton

 

I left a bunch of names off. No Brandon McBride, Justyn Knight, Ben Priesner, Django Lovett, Natasha Wodak among others. 
 

Breaking (1) - Philip Kim has already qualified. Tiffany Leung has a decent chance through the OQS (I think?) but I don’t see her qualifying and frankly I couldn’t care. 
 

Badminton (4) - Athletes in men’s singles, women’s singles, and men’s doubles. United States takes the continental quotas in women’s doubles and mixed doubles unfortunately.

 

Boxing (3-5) - Tammara Thibeault and Wyatt Sanford have already qualified. Watched Alexis Barriere for the first time this week, and damn he’s good. Such a shame that he missed out on qualifying today on a split decision. I have him qualifying at the World Olympic Qualifying Tournament, along with either Charlie Cavanaugh (if she gets the nod over Kali) or Scarlett Delgado. 
 

Basketball (28) - Women’s 3x3 team should join our men’s and women’s teams in Paris. But then again, I said the same thing about Erin Brooks in surfing, so…

 

Canoe Slalom (2-3) - United States and Brazil have qualified in both women’s C1/K1, so we should secure quotas at the Pan American Qualifier. Maybe we can qualify in either men’s C1/K1 as well. Edit: Was completely unaware that you could only secure one quota per gender, my mistake. 
 

Canoe Sprint (18) - Additional boats in men’s K2-500m, men’s C1-1000m, men’s C2-500m, and women’s K2-500m, but really it depends on the squad that we send to the Pan American Qualifier. 
 

Cycling (13-21) - One each in men’s and women’s mountain biking, and women’s BMX racing. Men’s and women’s sprint teams in track cycling, and maybe our women’s and men’s team pursuit? 
 

Equestrian (9) - Full team already qualified. 
 

Diving (5) - Was expecting more quotas, but our top women in 3m completely flopped at Worlds both this and last year (except in synchro at Fukuoka). I was also hoping for Kate Miller to grab a quota in women’s 10m but not as disappointing. 
 

Fencing (10-12) - We’ve already qualified in men’s team sabre, and men’s and women’s team foil. With only one sabre WC still to go, Pamela Brind’Amour is in a great position to qualify herself individually, she’s 15 points clear of the next highest eligible Pan American athlete (the rest are all Americans, who have already qualified a team) and for a WC there’s only 32 points available. In men’s and women’s epee, while our athletes will probably be the favourites heading into the Pan American Qualifier, it’s very tight between a couple of countries, I could see it going either way. 
 

Edit 2: March 18

 

Football (18) - Women’s team has already qualified.

 

Golf (4) - Two men and two women. Leaning towards Corey Conners and Nick Taylor for the men. For the women, it’s probably going to be Maude Aimee Leblanc and Brooke Henderson. 
 

Gymnastics (11) - Men’s and women’s artistic gymnastics teams have already qualified. We’ve also secured a quota in women’s trampoline. I don’t see us securing a men’s trampoline quota by looking at the Olympic Ranking unfortunately. 
 

Judo (5-6) - Quotas in men’s -73kg, men’s -81kg, men’s -100kg, women’s -57kg, and women’s -63kg for sure. Maybe one of men’s -90kg/men’s -66kg/women’s -52kg. 
 

Rowing (24) - We’ve already qualified in women’s eight and women’s lightweight double sculls. I have us qualifying women’s quadruple sculls and men’s eight boats at the Final Regatta. 
 

Rugby Sevens (12) - Already qualified a women’s team, and there’s pretty much no chance for the men. 
 

Sailing (7) - Men’s ICLA7 through the last chance regatta (I’m not feeling very optimistic however) in addition to our already secured quotas in women’s kite, women’s ICLA6, women’s 49er FX, and men’s 49er. 
 

Skateboarding (4) - Ryan Decenzo, Cordano Russell, and Matt Berger (before I was thinking Micky Papa) in men’s street, and Fay Ebert in women’s park. 
 

Sport Climbing (0-1) - Maybe one of Sean McColl/Alannah Yip?

 

Surfing (1) - Was expecting three surfers (adding Erin Brooks and Cody Young), instead we only qualify one. Disaster. 
 

Table Tennis (4) - Men’s Team has already qualified. We should secure a women’s quota through the Pan American Qualifier. 
 

Taekwondo (1) - Taekwondo Canada made some stupid choices on athlete selection for the Pan American Qualifier, so looks like Skylar Park in women’s -57kg will be our only representative. 
 

Triathlon (4) - Two men’s quotas and two women’s quotas, therefore qualifying us for the mixed team relay. 
 

Tennis (6) - Felix Auger-Aliassime (men’s singles), Leylah Fernandez (women’s singles), and Gaby Dabrowski (women’s doubles) through the Olympic Ranking. PR for Milos Raonic, Denis Shapovalov, and Bianca Andresscu. 
 

Volleyball (16) - We’ve already qualified a men’s volleyball team and Melissa Humana Parades/Brandie Wilkerson in women’s beach volleyball.  A second women’s beach (either Pavan/McBain or Bansley/Bukovec) volleyball pairing should join them through NORCECA. I don’t have much optimism for either Schachter/Dearing or our women’s volleyball team. 
 

Weightlifting (1-2) - Quota in women’s 59kg, and possibly men’s 89kg. 
 

Wrestling (7) - Additional quotas in women’s 68kg and women’s 53kg. We’ve already secured quotas in women’s 57kg, women’s 62kg, women’s 76kg, men’s 86kg freestyle, and men’s 125kg freestyle.  
 

Waterpolo (12) - Women’s team has already qualified. 

I’ll probably do swimming later, but without it that’s 255-269 athletes in 28/29 sports. 

[Josh 10,517]

Swimming Olympic Team Prediction

 

Likely will do another version sometime between the conclusion of the Canadian Open, and the Olympic Trials. 
 

 

Italic= Qualified for the relay in that event

 

Women’s 50m Freestyle - Taylor Ruck

Women’s 100m Freestyle - Taylor Ruck, Penny Oleksiak, Maggie MacNeil, Summer McIntosh, Mary Sophie-Harvey, Rebecca Smith

Women’s 200m Freestyle - Summer McIntosh, Brooklyn Douthwright, Mary Sophie-Harvey, Rebecca Smith, Julie Brousseau, Emma O’Croinin

Women’s 400m Freestyle - Summer McIntosh, Ella Jansen

Women’s 100m Backstroke - Kylie Masse, Ingrid Wilm

Women’s 200m Backstroke - Kylie Masse

Women’s 100m Butterfly - Maggie MacNeil, Katerine Savard

Women’s 200m Butterfly - Summer McIntosh, Mabel Zavaros

Women’s 100m Breaststroke - Sophie Angus, Alexanne LePage

Women’s 200m Breaststroke - Kelsey Wog, Sydney Pickrem

Women’s 200m Individual Medley - Summer McIntosh, Sydney Pickrem

Women’s 400m Individual Medley - Summer McIntosh, Tessa Cieplucha

Men’s 50m Freestyle - Josh Liendo

Men’s 100m Freestyle - Josh Liendo, Ruslan Gaziev, Finlay Knox, Illya Kharun, Javier Acevedo, Yuri Kisil, Stephen Calkins, Antoine Sauve

Men’s 200m Freestyle - N/A but for the relay Finlay Knox, Javier Acevedo, Patrick Hussey, Ruslan Gaziev

Men’s 100m Butterfly - Illya Kharun, Josh Liendo

Men’s 200m Butterfly - Illya Kharun

Men’s 100m Backstroke - Javier Acevedo, Blake Tierney

Men’s 200m Backstroke - Hugh McNeill

Men’s 100m Breaststroke - N/A but for the relay James Dergousoff

Men’s 200m Individual Medley - Finlay Knox

Men’s 400m Individual Medley - Lorne Wigginton 

 

Relay only swimmers (7/12) - Rebecca Smith, Patrick Hussey, Yuri Kisil, Julie Brousseau, Emma O’Croinin, Stephen Calkins, Antoine Sauve and unsure on the rest (off the top of my head I don’t think I’m forgetting anyone)

 

Shona Branton misses out. 

Edited March 31 by Josh

[JoshMartini007 2,537]

Like many nations, Canada won't use all of its relay-only quotas.

 

I also doubt we would go that far down our depth in the men's 4x100m free relay to select Calkins and Sauve. It'll be top 4-6 for the free relays and top 1-2 for the medley relays.

[Josh 10,517]

7 minutes ago, JoshMartini007 said:

I also doubt we would go that far down our depth in the men's 4x100m free relay to select Calkins and Sauve. It'll be top 4-6 for the free relays and top 1-2 for the medley relays.

I know… I’m predicting Calkins and Sauve to finish among the top 6

Edited March 31 by Josh