Early Qualification Predictions for your Nation at the Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024 Road to Paris 2024

[rybak 2,694]

Besides men's volleyball OQT's and Artistic Gymnastics WCH almost all chances for direct quotas for European nations are done for this year, so, it's time for my, not so early, prediction of team

 

Archery: 0-2, I believe that only Magdalena Śmiałkowska (who was one round away from getting quota at European Games) or Karyna Kazlouskaya have any chances to qualify, but I won't be surprised if we will miss this for which nobody care, including own national federation...

 

Artistic Swimming: 0, We had two girls competed in 2022 WCH and during European Games, but they have no chances for Olympics in near future.

 

Athletics: Many depends how many relays we will qualify, I believe that we should qualify all 5, but men's 4x400m may have some problems of getting in, but overally, as always, in this sport we will have the biggest delegation, between 55 to 70/75 athletes.

 

Badminton: 0, Same situation with federation like in archery, but at least here it's clear that we will not qualify anyone second Olympics in a row.

 

Basketball: 0-3-6-12-15, tbh I don't know  I think both men's and women's 3x3 have now similar chances to qualify, but I'm not sure if any will make it, same about men's 5x5 team, I would want to see them so much, but I think it's impossible, considering that only 4 spots left and so many way stronger teams didn't make it yet. 

Beach Volleyball: 2-6, surely one pair should qualify, but who it will be? Gruszczyńska with Wachowicz or Bryl/Łosiak? Kantor and Zdybek also have a shot to be qualified, but all those pairs needs to go far in upcoming World Championships to get so much needed points to Olympic ranking. We will know more about their chances in 2-3 weeks time.

 

Boxing: 1-4, I don't know what to expect after failure during European Games where our boxers lost all 8 direct fights for Olympic ticket, at easiest chance  Also so many quotas was removed in comprasion to Tokyo. It's still chance that somebody will qualify, but I have no idea who it will be, one what I know we have much bigger chances to qualify women boxers instead men boxers.

 

Breaking: Wigor and Paulina should try to qualify via OQS, but still I think that it will be 0.

 

Canoeing - Slalom: We did qualified in 3 events (M K1, M C1 and W K1). We are able also to compete in both Kayak Cross and W C1, but I believe that maybe by an possible reallocation we will get 4th quota in W C1 which will open chance to send 4 canoers instead 3. So, it's 3 or 4.

 

Canoeing - Sprint: 8-12, for now we have qualified 8 athletes (7 women's and just one men), but we aren't without chances to qualify also in both men's and womens C2 500m, both of these boats were first or one of first to be not qualified via WCH, as it was with many our athletes in other sports, let's pray and hope that we will have more luck next year. No chances in mens kayak btw.

 

Cycling - BMX: 0, we had athletes at European Games, but only because we were host nation, Olympics are too far away for us here.

 

Cycling - Mountain Bike: 2, we should qualify one men and one women without problems.

 

Cycling - Road: 3-4-5, currently we are projected to qualify 3 womens and 1 men, but I believe that we may sneak one place higher in men's ranking to get second quota, we need just surpass Eritrea, but I don't know if we are able to do it and if it's enough time left to make it.

 

Cycling - Track: 6/7-10, we should qualified in both teams in sprint but currently men's team is first underline, I think that it will change (positively for us) after next year WCH, both omnium events and women's madison.

 

Diving: 0-1, maybe 2? We did improved here conisdering previous Olympic's cycles, I think that we have to qualify at least one athlete here, in men's 10m platform, according @Topicmaster1010 simulation. Men's Synchronized 10m pair also have a little chance. I will keep my fingers to see Polish diver in Olympics first time in my life.

Equestrian: 9, first time ever (not counting Moscow 1980) we will send full team in this sport 

Fencing: 4-9, tragedy would need to happen to make it possible to our women's epee team to fail to qualify, women's foil team is first unde line and men's foil team also isn't too far away, but I doubt that men's team will qualify, it's more possible to see our men's via individual ranking or qualifying tournament.

 

Field Hockey: Yes, we will qualify here, but only in time when we will be host nation, will be it already in 2036?  0 chances since few months already.

 

Football: Same as with field hockey. - 0

Golf: 1, Adrian Meronk will qualify easy this time.

 

Gymnastics - Artistic: 0-1, only Marta Pihan-Kulesza have a small chances for qualification in balance beam, nobody else.

 

Gymnastics - Rhythmic: 0-6, we was so close to qualify via latest World Championships in team event  We will fight for last free spot for Europe with Azerbaijan and Greece, who seems to be stronger than us, maybe banned country will be allowed to compete again, either our chances seems to be small, as qualfication via WCH was like "now or never". Lilianna Lewińska should be able to qualify in individuall all around, but we don't make a big pressure on her, Los Angeles might be the Olympics where she isn't without medal chances if she will be trained good and will still improve. 

 

Gymnastics - Trampoline: 0, Not gonna happen until hosting the Games.

 

Handball: 0 Too bad that our federation didn't used fact when we had "golden times" in men's team between 2008-2016, they could make a better programm and inviting childs for training camps, but what an one grey person like me can do? Nothing. Currently we barely qualify to big tournaments and during January ECH they would need to be in final for having chances to competing in OQT, it won't gonna happen. But women's team have a better chances as they need to be in top 8 in December's WCH, for having chances to compete in OQT, but I doubt for it.

 

Judo: 1-6, Angelika Szymańska seems to be only one safe qualifier considering her recent result in Baku Grand Slam and high position in ranking. 3 other judokas are now in places giving them qualification, but they needs to have much better performances in next monhts as they are currently borderline qualifiers, 3 another (all mens) judokas still have chances for qualification too, but they also needs better results.

 

Modern Pentathlon: 1-4, Łukasz Gutkowski did qualified via European Games, I think second men (probably Sebastian Stasiak) will qualify too. Among women's Natalia Dominiak and Anna Maliszewska should be able to qualify via final ranking.

 

Rowing: Another sport where members of federation thinks more about themeselves rather than athletes (see archery, badminton, gymanstics) and what is result? Just one quota via WCH! Women's Quadruple sculls boat who had silver in Tokyo doesn't exist anymore, some of them decided to retire by bad decisions of federation, some are injured or pregnant. Natan Węgrzycki-Szymczyk also did suspend his career because of morons in federation. Because of bad results in WCH we can compete in European regattas where only women's lightweight sculls should qualify. So, it should be 6 in Paris. But maybe miracle will happen and either men's or women's four will fill just two available quotas via final regatta. We will see in May 2024.

 

Rugby Sevens: 0-12, women's team have huge chances for quota during final qualification tournament, too bad that there is just one place is available, they are good team, almost qualified during European Games, but in final Great Britain was too big task for them. I will pray strong for them for keeping current form or maybe even better when time for main matches will come.

 

Sailing: 5-11, 5 sailors are qualified for now, we have big chances for additional quotas in mens and womens formula kite, womens 49erFX and smaller in mixed 470 mainly during next year Last Chance Regatta.

 

Shooting: 4, 4 shooters have qualified for now, but I can't see if anyone else have a real chance to be qualified.

 

Skateboarding: 0, I think Amelia Brodka who represented us in park event in Tokyo is retired, but I think that @Laraja will know more than me, anyway no chances.

 

Sport Climbing: 1-3, Aleksandra Mirosław fortunately qualified via European event. One of Kałucka's sisters surely will qualify via ranking of qualification events. I still believe for Marcin Dzieński, despite small amount of available quotas and big amount, of not qualified yet strong Asian opponents. We don't have anyone competing on world level in leading and boulder.

 

Surfing:  I think it's very appropriate gif for this sport and our chances  Despite competing in latest World Surfing Games, even with 3 athletes! Maybe in Brisbane 2032 will come our time with lot of luck, let's see... For Paris it's 0 chances, it won't be also bold prediction, if I will already say that we won't competing in this sport in Los Angeles either.

 

Swimming: 12-18, Currently we have 6 qualified swimmers, but I think this number will be doubled or tripled in next months, especially when we aren't without chances to be qualified in 3 relay events.

 

Table Tennis: 1-2 I doubt to see our teams here, we have chances only via singles ranking, the biggest have Anna Węgrzyn and Samuel Kulczycki, but they are yet young, Natalia Partyka who competed in Beijing, London, Rio and Tokyo decided to focus on Paralympic Games.

 

Taekwondo: 2-3, Aleksandra Kowalczuk and Patrycja Adamkiewicz should qualified via QT, just like in Tokyo, maybe somebody else will qualify too, I don't know since I didn't follow this sport (besides Olympics) at all.

 

Tennis: 2-5, Iga Świątek, Hubert Hurkacz will be in Paris for sure, Magda Linette and Magdalena Fręch also aren't without chances considering their rankings and big amount of Chinese and Czech players being ranked higher. Jan Zieliński in doubles will qualify too if he will not lost too much ranking points after Australian Open, just like Magda Linette. I don't know what to expect from Kamil Majchrzak, when he will return in January after unfair doping ban.

 

Triathlon: 0-1, Only Paulina Klimas have a little chance to be qualified, but I prefer to be surprised with her qualification rather being dissapointed of lack of place.

 

Volleyball: 24, Women's team is qualified first time since Beijing 2008  Men's team will be there too, if not via OQT which just started then by ranking, no doubts here.

 

Water Polo: 0 Men's team did failed to qualify to European Championships, so no chances to be in Paris, but we have decent U16 boys team, maybe they will have bigger shot to qualify in 2032 or 2036, but surely not now. Women's team still doesn't exist. 

 

Weightlifting: 0-1 Currently it's very possible that we will not qualify anyone in this sport first time since... 1952(!). But maybe miracle will happen and with some doping issues and selections among qualified athletes in much stronger nations, somebody will gain the quota. But I'm not expecting this as quota reduction was also "helpful" here.

 

Wrestling: 1-5. For now only Anhelina Lysak is qualified, but like in boxing and weightlifting, cuting of available quotas also make some problems for us, also we are not strong in this sport (like in 80s and 90s) anymore. Still I believe that 2 more women's will qualify as Roksana Zasina wasn't too far for being qualified in WCH, also Anna Łukasiak had a bad luck due to drawing strong opponent already in first round. Maybe 1-2 men's will qualify too, but I have no idea who could be the lucky man.

[rafalgorka 1,386]

@rybak i agree with your simulation almost 100%
 

this may be less than 200 athletes in total this time

 

but maybe less athletes than before but more medals??? We will see…

[rybak 2,694]

5 hours ago, rafalgorka said:

@rybak i agree with your simulation almost 100%
 

this may be less than 200 athletes in total this time

 

but maybe less athletes than before but more medals??? We will see…

I'm afraid about less than 10 medals.

 

Where you didnt agree with predictions?

[rafalgorka 1,386]

I’m afraid there will be noone in boxing, i think we get one or two more quotas in shooting and i strongly believe W handball team will make it to Paris somehow. 
And basically, that’s it.

 

Natan is one of my fav athletes so i hope he goes to Paris in single sculls but it’s rather wishful thinking i know.

 

You made a great analyzis here. You should send it to Przegląd Sportowy or sth and they should print it immediately!

[Adriano 455]

I had bit different opinion, more pessymistic vision but still more than 200. 70 places fot athetics is really reasonable. Tennis should be more, for me Linette, Świątek and Frech in singles, but also 1 doubles for Magda (Rosolska after pregnancy, Kawa, Piter, Falkowska could make second doubles). Zieliński could make a men's double with somoene,and of course Hubert Hurkacz. Taekwondo - a lot of good countries still  not qualify in polish categories, I am afraid of that. Many places on QQT in women's boxing, I believe Szeremeta, Rygielska, Drabik, Wójcik  and even Durkacz could make this. In wrestling I hope for 2 girls and Baranowski/Baran/Jezierzanski/Michalik/Kurniczak (2 is reasonable). Judo too much, for me only 3 places, Kaleta is so low. (Judo max 4) Fencing probably 4 chance for 7 (with one foil team, I hope Egypt will be out 16 in womens foil), cycling track for me low chance fot team sprint (for me now WC counts next year in ranking). Also table tennis should be only Bajor via ranking. Swimming should be much more than 10. Shooting chance for 1 quota via ranking (Kowalewicz, Stankiewicz). In triathlon Paulina should qualify via world ranking as the best european, she had much advantage tbh - only 3 results per two period count. Roksana could fight also but she has soms problems with healthy.. Men's  triathlon seems too week for that judging recent individual starts. Maliszewska and Stasiak in modern penthahtlon has a big chance, good start tomorrow in Madrid could help (3 best results counted), Dominiak could do this also, but I gave her smaller chances. I agree 0 for badminton (our girl Dabczynska was today in Uganda Futures only quarterfinal, next week international, she has a contact with the last possible places, but much better performance are needed that 1/4 of international). I hope finally 1 diver

Edited September 30, 2023 by Adriano

[rybak 2,694]

55 minutes ago, rafalgorka said:

I’m afraid there will be noone in boxing, i think we get one or two more quotas in shooting and i strongly believe W handball team will make it to Paris somehow. 
And basically, that’s it.

 

Natan is one of my fav athletes so i hope he goes to Paris in single sculls but it’s rather wishful thinking i know.

 

You made a great analyzis here. You should send it to Przegląd Sportowy or sth and they should print it immediately!

As I mentioned Natan will not go to Paris as he suspend his career, I asked the federation about him and overall results of our rowers recently and they didnt see also posibility of womens quadruplle sculls to compete next year either

 

Who have 'real' chances in shooting?

[rafalgorka 1,386]

10 minutes ago, rybak said:

As I mentioned Natan will not go to Paris as he suspend his career, I asked the federation about him and overall results of our rowers recently and they didnt see also posibility of womens quadruplle sculls to compete next year either

 

Who have 'real' chances in shooting?

Maybe Aneta Staniewicz in Air Rifle (she's currently 10th in world ranking) or Sandra Bernal in W skeet (16th)

[Adriano 455]

1 minute ago, rafalgorka said:

Maybe Aneta Staniewicz in Air Rifle (she's currently 10th in world ranking) or Sandra Bernal in W skeet (16th)

Kowalewicz is second  (or third behind guy from India).

[Makedonas 1,593]

On 7/24/2022 at 9:36 AM, Makedonas said:

Archery: 1-3 Psarra should make it back again for her 7th Olympics, and now with her daughter we may have a chance at the team event.

Artistic Swimming: 2-9 We'll definitely qualify the duet. Team might depend on Russia's participation...

Athletics: 20-30 I'm too lazy to go into a big analysis on this.

Badminton: 0

Basketball: 0-24

Beach Volleyball: 0

Boxing: 2-3

 

Breaking: 0

Canoeing - Slalom: 0

Canoeing - Sprint: 0 I don't know of anyone, although we should do well at this sport given our coastal areas and also lakes, rivers, etc.

Cycling - BMX: 0

Cycling - Mountain Bike:  1

Cycling - Road: 1

Cycling - Track: 1-2

Diving: 0-2

Equestrian: 0-1 

Fencing: 1-4 We should definitely qualify in women's sabre, the difference is if we make it in the team event or not.

Field Hockey: 0

Football: 0

Golf: 0

Gymnastics - Artistic: 1-3 Surely Petrounias will make it, and possibly one more in each men's and women's I'll say.

Gymnastics - Rhythmic: 0-6 2020 was the first time in several decades that we didn't qualify anyone, but we seem to be slowly moving upwards again.

Gymnastics - Trampoline: 0

Handball: 0

Judo: 2-3 We had 2 in Tokyo but Ntanatsidis seems to have disappeared. However, Tselidis is back from injury so I think he'll make it this time.

Modern Pentathlon: 0

Rowing: 5-18 This one is hard to predict. We had 4 in Tokyo which was very small compared with Rio or London, but it was a very young team and they did really well. We had really good U23 and U19 teams in recent years, so in the next two years we'll get to see how they transition into the senior category. 

Rugby Sevens: 0

Sailing: 5-10 Hard to predict with all of the new categories. Also there is the drama with Karachaliou (who would be one of our biggest medal hopes across all sports) possibly representing Portugal instead.

Shooting: 3-7 We only had 2 in Tokyo, Korakaki and one in men's skeet. I think the young Katzouraki will also qualify in women's skeet. Plus we have good chances for another in men's skeet, Korakaki's brother and Christina Moschi in the pistol events, and maybe Chatzitsakiroglou in men's trap.

Skateboarding: 0

Sport Climbing: 0

Surfing: 0

Swimming: 15-20 We had 12 in Tokyo, but it was a pretty young team and everyone should be back plus some other young swimmers.

Table Tennis: 1-2 Gionis should make it again and possibly the young Sgouropoulos.

Taekwondo: 1-3 We had just 19 yo Tzeli in Tokyo. Telikostoglou was a shock non qualifier after winning silver at the 2019 Worlds. Chamalidis is also decent. I think we'll have some representation in Paris.

Tennis: 2-3 Tsitsipas and Sakkari again. I would like to see someone else make it but I'm not sure how realistic it is. We have three other guys moving up a lot in the doubles rankings, and a couple of other girls in top 200 but someone will need to make big improvements to make it to Paris...I'll be optimistic and say someone else might get in though.

Triathlon: 0

Volleyball: 0

Water Polo: 12-24 Our men will make it as always, and I think our women will finally make it back (I say it every time but it's probably more likely now if no Russia as well)

Weightlifting: 1-2 Just like London, Rio, and Tokyo, I think we'll do the bare minimum to keep our OG qualification streak alive

Wrestling: 3-4 We had 2 in Tokyo, I think both will make it again. Since then we also had 20 yo Kougioumtsidis win gold at the European Championships in the senior's category, so I think he will make it too.
 

Total Sports: 24

Optimistic Total Athletes: 185

Realistic Total Athletes: 112

Pessimistic Total Athletes: 80

Well most of this is accurate but some changes have to be made.

 

I said 0 for triathlon, but Bitados seems likely to make it now so we will have 1 hopefully.

 

I also said 0 for sprint canoeing, but it seems that Dimopoulos can possibly make it (I'm not expecting it but there's a chance).

 

Also our 0-1 for equestrian looks like it will end up being 1 in the end, our first time being represented in equestrian since 2004 if all goes as expected 

 

On the other hand, 2-3 for boxing seems too optimistic now, I would say 0-2 is my current prediction. This is mostly because Tsanikidis retired and Pita has disappeared, and they were the two boxers I expected to make it the most. However, Papadatou is a nice surprise and I think she can make it and maybe one other.

 

We should still get 1 for Road Cycling, but 1 for Mountain Bike seems impossible as our best cyclist switched to road cycling, and 1-2 in Track Cycling should now be 0-1 as Volikakis retired. I'm hoping Milaki can make it but she'll probably just miss out.

 

I said 2-3 for Judo, and now it's looking like just 2. Ntanatsidis retired and the younger athletes aren't ready so I don't really see how we could possibly get a third judoka.

 

Basketball was 0-24 but now it's 0-12 as the women's team has been eliminated.

 

Diving was 0-2 but I'll say 0-1 now as 23 yo Molvalis (our best hope) retired a few days ago 

 

We had a bad year in weightlifting at the senior level, so 1-2 is probably not happening, hopefully we can somehow keep our qualification streak alive but it's probably done...

 

15-20 for swimming is too optimistic, some of our youngsters from Tokyo have underperformed (Englezakis, Makrygiannis, Papastamos) and I think 10-15 is what we should expect at this point.

 

Sailing has been a disaster, 5-10 is too much, I think 3-8 is a better prediction now.

 

Tennis I said 2-3 and I'd like to change it to 2-4, we have one male doubles and two female doubles players all just outside the top 100, so we can probably send one of each to play with Tsitsipas and Sakkari.

[Laraja 1,371]

On 9/29/2023 at 10:32 PM, rybak said:

Skateboarding: 0, I think Amelia Brodka who represented us in park event in Tokyo is retired, but I think that @Laraja will know more than me, anyway no chances.

Yeah, I think she is retired. She hasn't participated in any competition so far, and this next week we will have Park Worlds Championship. But, I think she could qualify again, the competition in this event isn't so high, apart of  and