Early Qualification Predictions for your Nation at the Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024

[intoronto 5,639]

1 hour ago, De_Gambassi said:

 

Yes, two years later, let's do exactly that 

 

What people predicted vs what happened (I've only used first prediction by people as some have did multiple ones)

 

	Nation	Prediction	Reality	% Off
@Siddhartha Talukdar		112,5	113	0 %
@Dnl		87,5	88	-1 %
@vinipereira		278,5	277	1 %
@Agger		122	124	-2 %
@Topicmaster1010		60	59	2 %
@intoronto		309	318	-3 %
@Vic Liu		400	388	3 %
@phelps		372,5	360	3 %
@LDOG		145	136	6 %
@De_Gambassi		532	573	-8 %
@Makedonas		112	101	10 %
@Andry84		325	360	-11 %
@Vektor		150	170	-13 %
@TeamGB		375	327	13 %
@Rafa Maciel		380	327	14 %
@Josh		410	318	22 %
@Werloc		77	50	35 %
@hckošice		45	28	38 %

 

We have a surprisingly high number of people who were almost 100% correct 

Wow  of by 9! I wish Josh's number was right though @Josh

[Makedonas 2,155]

On 7/24/2022 at 9:36 AM, Makedonas said:

Archery: 1-3 Psarra should make it back again for her 7th Olympics, and now with her daughter we may have a chance at the team event.

Artistic Swimming: 2-9 We'll definitely qualify the duet. Team might depend on Russia's participation...

Athletics: 20-30 I'm too lazy to go into a big analysis on this.

Badminton: 0

Basketball: 0-24

Beach Volleyball: 0

Boxing: 2-3

 

Breaking: 0

Canoeing - Slalom: 0

Canoeing - Sprint: 0 I don't know of anyone, although we should do well at this sport given our coastal areas and also lakes, rivers, etc.

Cycling - BMX: 0

Cycling - Mountain Bike:  1

Cycling - Road: 1

Cycling - Track: 1-2

Diving: 0-2

Equestrian: 0-1 

Fencing: 1-4 We should definitely qualify in women's sabre, the difference is if we make it in the team event or not.

Field Hockey: 0

Football: 0

Golf: 0

Gymnastics - Artistic: 1-3 Surely Petrounias will make it, and possibly one more in each men's and women's I'll say.

Gymnastics - Rhythmic: 0-6 2020 was the first time in several decades that we didn't qualify anyone, but we seem to be slowly moving upwards again.

Gymnastics - Trampoline: 0

Handball: 0

Judo: 2-3 We had 2 in Tokyo but Ntanatsidis seems to have disappeared. However, Tselidis is back from injury so I think he'll make it this time.

Modern Pentathlon: 0

Rowing: 5-18 This one is hard to predict. We had 4 in Tokyo which was very small compared with Rio or London, but it was a very young team and they did really well. We had really good U23 and U19 teams in recent years, so in the next two years we'll get to see how they transition into the senior category. 

Rugby Sevens: 0

Sailing: 5-10 Hard to predict with all of the new categories. Also there is the drama with Karachaliou (who would be one of our biggest medal hopes across all sports) possibly representing Portugal instead.

Shooting: 3-7 We only had 2 in Tokyo, Korakaki and one in men's skeet. I think the young Katzouraki will also qualify in women's skeet. Plus we have good chances for another in men's skeet, Korakaki's brother and Christina Moschi in the pistol events, and maybe Chatzitsakiroglou in men's trap.

Skateboarding: 0

Sport Climbing: 0

Surfing: 0

Swimming: 15-20 We had 12 in Tokyo, but it was a pretty young team and everyone should be back plus some other young swimmers.

Table Tennis: 1-2 Gionis should make it again and possibly the young Sgouropoulos.

Taekwondo: 1-3 We had just 19 yo Tzeli in Tokyo. Telikostoglou was a shock non qualifier after winning silver at the 2019 Worlds. Chamalidis is also decent. I think we'll have some representation in Paris.

Tennis: 2-3 Tsitsipas and Sakkari again. I would like to see someone else make it but I'm not sure how realistic it is. We have three other guys moving up a lot in the doubles rankings, and a couple of other girls in top 200 but someone will need to make big improvements to make it to Paris...I'll be optimistic and say someone else might get in though.

Triathlon: 0

Volleyball: 0

Water Polo: 12-24 Our men will make it as always, and I think our women will finally make it back (I say it every time but it's probably more likely now if no Russia as well)

Weightlifting: 1-2 Just like London, Rio, and Tokyo, I think we'll do the bare minimum to keep our OG qualification streak alive

Wrestling: 3-4 We had 2 in Tokyo, I think both will make it again. Since then we also had 20 yo Kougioumtsidis win gold at the European Championships in the senior's category, so I think he will make it too.
 

Total Sports: 24

Optimistic Total Athletes: 185

Realistic Total Athletes: 112

Pessimistic Total Athletes: 80

Well in the end I underestimated us in water polo (but only because I had 12 per team and not 13) and tennis, overestimated us in weightlifting (I didn't take into account the reduction of events/quotas and we missed out for the first time since 1956), taekwondo, sailing (I didn't take into account all the new category changes and this is the smallest sailing team we've had in decades), cycling-track (first time not qualifying in decades), cycling-mountain bike, boxing (I didn't take into account the reduction of quotas and also we had a few of our top boxers retire after Tokyo), athletics (our smallest team since 1992, we had a bunch of multi-time Olympians who didn't qualify this year for various reasons and some young talents who I thought would be ready by now but are not), and archery (first NQ since 1996).