[PREDICTION CONTESTS] Discussion Thread

[dcro 10,210]

Because only gold matters. 

 

But seriously, everyone competes to win. Silver and bronze are only consolation awards. I don't think they should be treated as equal just because they may be more unpredictable (or, should I say, random?).

[Dunadan 1,103]

32 minutes ago, wumo26 said:

 

Just out of curiosity, why should a user be awarded more points for a correct predicted gold medallist than a correct predicted silver or bronze medallist?

Because predicting a correct gold means that you started ordering the athletes in the correct order, while guessing bronze correctly is mainly due to luck if you previously missed gold and silver.

Example:

Result: Svindal- Jansrud- Feuz

Prediction: Paris - Innerhofer - Feuz... you guessed Feuz "only" because two people that you hadn't predicted finished ahead of him...imo this is lucky.

 

Now I have a question...in my previous post why should User A get more points than User B?

 

Edited January 31, 2019 by Dunadan

[heywoodu 15,145]

20 minutes ago, dcro said:

Because only gold matters. 

 

But seriously, everyone competes to win. Silver and bronze are only consolation awards. I don't think they should be treated as equal just because they may be more unpredictable (or, should I say, random?).

I would say a prediction contest is about who predicts better. In competition (for some) only gold counts, when predicting outcomes every position counts since you're predicting all or a select group of them (top-3 usually).

[Wumo 3,002]

45 minutes ago, Dunadan said:

Because predicting a correct gold means that you started ordering the athletes in the correct order, while guessing bronze correctly is mainly due to luck if you previously missed gold and silver.

Example:

Result: Svindal- Jansrud- Feuz

Prediction: Paris - Innerhofer - Feuz... you guessed Feuz "only" because two people that you hadn't predicted finished ahead of him...imo this is lucky.

 

Now I have a question...in my previous post why should User A get more points than User B?

 

I understand your point about why a user should get more points for predicting fewer medallists. I see my system is flawed. We could create a system which is based on predicting the medallists (like the current system), but where gold, silver and bronze have an equal value (2 points), and you are rewarded 1 bonus point for predicting the correct place on the podium.

 

I just copy paste your example: 

Suppose you have a contest with 11 events (like alpine skiing).

User A predicts correctly all bronze medals but nothing else...so 0 G, 0 S, 11 B for a total of 11 medallists in correct positions.

User B predicts correctly gold and silver in 6 events and nothing else for a total of 12 medallists in correct position: 6 G, 6 S, 0 B.

Calculation for User A: 11*2+11=33

Calculation for User B: (6+6)*2+12=36

User A 33 points

User B 36 points

 

Is that a more fair system?

Edited January 31, 2019 by wumo26

[Wumo 3,002]

Okay I will try again with my new system based on medallists. 

 

My example:

 

Points will be awarded as follows:

- For predicting a Medallist - 2 points.
- Bonus point: For right predicted Podium Place - 1 point.

 

 

Example

 

Event & Date	Athletes	Gold	Silver	Bronze
Men's Downhill Day 4 February 9th, 2019	Max Franz
	Vincent Kriechmayr
	Matthias Mayer
	Hannes Reichelt
	Adrien Theaux
	Thomas Dressen
	Peter Fill
	Dominik Paris
	Kjetil Jansrud		X
	Aksel Lund Svindal	X
	Beat Feuz			X
	Gilles Roulin
	Athlete from North America
	Any Other Athlete

 

Results:

1. Aksel Lund Svindal - 2 Points

2. Kjetil Jansrud - 2 Points

3. Beat Feuz - 2 Points

Bonus Points: 3 Points

Your Total: 9 Points

 

1. Aksel Lund Svindal - 2 Points

2. Beat Feuz - 2 Points

3. Kjetil Jansrud - 2 Points

Bonus Points: 1 point

Your Total:  7 Points

 

1. Aksel Lund Svindal - 2 Points

2. Kjetil Jansrud - 2 Points

3. Any Other Athlete - 0 points

Bonus Points: 2 Points

Your Total: 6 Points

 

1. Aksel Lund Svindal - 2 Points

2. Beat Feuz - 2 Points

3. Any Other Athlete - 0 Points

Bonus Points: 1 Points

Your Total: 5 Points

 

1. Beat Feuz - 2 Points

2. Aksel Lund Svindal - 2 Points

3. Any Other Athlete - 0 Points

Bonus Points: 0 points

Your Total: 4 Points

 

1. Aksel Lund Svindal - 2 Points

2. Any Other Athlete - 0 Points

3. Max Franz  - 0 Points

Bonus Points: 1 Point

Your Total: 3 Points

 

1. Max Franz - 0 Points

2. Aksel Lund Svindal - 2 Points

3. Any Other Athlete - 0 Points

Bonus Points: 0 Points

Your Total: 2 Points

 

1. Matthias Mayer

2. Max Franz

3. Any Other Athlete 

Your Total: 0 Points

[Dunadan 1,103]

3 hours ago, wumo26 said:

I understand your point about why a user should get more points for predicting fewer medallists. I see my system is flawed. We could create a system which is based on predicting the medallists (like the current system), but where gold, silver and bronze have an equal value (2 points), and you are rewarded 1 bonus point for predicting the correct place on the podium.

 

I just copy paste your example: 

Suppose you have a contest with 11 events (like alpine skiing).

User A predicts correctly all bronze medals but nothing else...so 0 G, 0 S, 11 B for a total of 11 medallists in correct positions.

User B predicts correctly gold and silver in 6 events and nothing else for a total of 12 medallists in correct position: 6 G, 6 S, 0 B.

Calculation for User A: 11*2+11=33

Calculation for User B: (6+6)*2+12=36

User A 33 points

User B 36 points

 

Is that a more fair system?

 

Yes but if I understand correctly this is a big modification of your previous system and is actually quite close to the current one:

 

 

Points will be awarded as follows:

- For right predicted Gold Medal Winner - 4 points  3 points
- For right predicted Silver Medal Winner - 3 points.
- For right predicted Bronze Medal Winner - 2 points 3 points
- For right predicted Athlete/Nation but wrong place/medal - 1 point 2 points
- Bonus points: 1 bonus point will be awarded to predictor who predicted all medalists correctly, regardless of the order (1-2-3, 1-3-2, 2-1-3, 2-3-1, 3-2-1, 3-1-2).

 

I think one would have to compare different predictions (about a single event and a whole contest) and decide which one is better to come up with the best system:

 

Example:

 

Results:

1. Aksel Lund Svindal 

2. Kjetil Jansrud 

3. Beat Feuz 

 

User A predicted:

1. Kjetil Jansrud

2. Beat Feuz 

3. A.L. Svindal

 

User B predicted:

1. D. Paris 

2. C. Innerhofer

3. Beat Feuz

 

Which is the better prediction?

 

Spoiler

In my opinion A is better, without any doubt...your first system disagrees on this matter

 

	User A	User B
current system	4 points	2 points
wumo's first system	3 points	4 points
wumo's second system	6 points	3 points

 

 

P.S.

1) I still prefer the current system;

2) I think that whoever runs the contest (doing most of the work) should be entitled to use the scoring system that he thinks is the most fitting...no need to use always the same system if there are different managers.

[Wumo 3,002]

53 minutes ago, Dunadan said:

 

Yes but if I understand correctly this is a big modification of your previous system and is actually quite close to the current one:

 

 

Points will be awarded as follows:

- For right predicted Gold Medal Winner - 4 points  3 points
- For right predicted Silver Medal Winner - 3 points.
- For right predicted Bronze Medal Winner - 2 points 3 points
- For right predicted Athlete/Nation but wrong place/medal - 1 point 2 points
- Bonus points: 1 bonus point will be awarded to predictor who predicted all medalists correctly, regardless of the order (1-2-3, 1-3-2, 2-1-3, 2-3-1, 3-2-1, 3-1-2).

 

I think one would have to compare different predictions (about a single event and a whole contest) and decide which one is better to come up with the best system:

 

Example:

 

Results:

1. Aksel Lund Svindal 

2. Kjetil Jansrud 

3. Beat Feuz 

 

User A predicted:

1. Kjetil Jansrud

2. Beat Feuz 

3. A.L. Svindal

 

User B predicted:

1. D. Paris 

2. C. Innerhofer

3. Beat Feuz

 

Which is the better prediction?

 

  Hide contents

In my opinion A is better, without any doubt...your first system disagrees on this matter

 

	User A	User B
current system	4 points	2 points
wumo's first system	3 points	4 points
wumo's second system	6 points	3 points

 

 

P.S.

1) I still prefer the current system;

2) I think that whoever runs the contest (doing most of the work) should be entitled to use the scoring system that he thinks is the most fitting...no need to use always the same system if there are different managers.

 

You are absoIutly correct about the big modification. I saw my first system gave too much advantage to a predicter who could be lucky with the correct podium place. And on the other hand, I gave too much of a disadvantage for a predicter who could guess more medallists. I think my second system benefit those who are good at predicting medalists more than the current system. 

 

I think this whole discussion started because Heywoodu (and myself) think it is not harder to predict a gold medallist than a bronze medallist, but the current point system benefits a correct gold medallist prediction more than and correct silver or bronze medallist. 

If I took your example from above, and instead of a correct predicted bronze medallist, User B predicted the correct gold medallist. 

 

Results:

1. Aksel Lund Svindal 

2. Kjetil Jansrud 

3. Beat Feuz 

 

User A predicted:

1. Kjetil Jansrud

2. Beat Feuz 

3. A.L. Svindal

 

User B predicted:

1. Aksel Lund Svindal 

2. C. Innerhofer

3. D. Paris

 

	User A	User B
current system	4 points	4 points
wumo's first system	3 points	4 points
wumo's second system	6 points	3 points

 

I would agree with you that User A is, in my example, the better predicter, but the result says differently.

 

But as you write last in your post, I think it should be up to the user who runs the contest to decide what system to be used. 

 

I would like to thank you, @Dunadan, for your constructive criticism of my system, and come with your opinion on the prediction point system. You have been on the forum for much longer than I have and participated in more prediction contests than I have.  You should know the point system and what works, so thanks for your input. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 31, 2019 by wumo26

[Pablita 185]

Very good job @chrischi08: what a start!

 

I have no problem with @wumo26 suggestion BUT I prefer that @Wanderer focus on what we left last year: you ask for help and @Dunadan was ready to help you. Days have passed and we still don't have the results: Dunadan hide them so you can check them but it's clear you don't have time/deside to do it, so please unhidden them and let us know who won. If he made any error, the users that are still interested in the contest will show the error otherwise they will be the final results.

 

With the final results for this contest, someone else can help you with the final standing: you have open the new general standing but we don't have the 2018 general standing.

 

Thanks.

[Wanderer 1,726]

 

 

Final Standing available here

 

 

	chrischi08
	Speedy
	hckosice

 

 

What a convincing win for @chrischi08  Amazing picking and excellent start of the year with back-to-back gold medals! Congratulation!  

It was a photo finish at the end for the silver and bronze medals. Excellent final picking for @Speedy propelled him to second place and silver medal! Congratulation 

I was afraid @hckosice might choke, but the lucky goal secured him a medal at the end, bronze to start the year. Now he can safely and without remorse flop again at hockey prediction contest  Pardon me, ice hockey, he is very good in predicting real hockey  Congrats hckosice   

 

@Henry_Leon was close, but luck of belief in Qatar left him without medal, but nevertheless, it was a good run, as well as for @vinipereira with his great pick on the final day.

 

Thank you everyone who participated, onto winter sports now!

[hckošice 14,834]

 

Congrats to the gold and silver medalists