Swimming Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024

[Jan Linha 624]

17 minutes ago, Topicmaster1010 said:

A while ago, I mentioned how there were a concerning number of qualifiers in the men's 400m IM. Today, based on the results that happened at Canadian Olympic Trials today, I would like to talk about another event with a concerning amount of qualifiers. That would be the Women's 100m Freestyle. Here's roughly where things stand today. In 2016, the OQT was 54.43. Then despite the reduction of quotas in 2020, the OQT still stood relatively constant only decreasing by 0.05 seconds to 54.38. This cycle, it's decreased by a whopping 0.77 SECONDS TO 53.61.

 

Now why such the large drop, you ask? Well you have to remember that World Aquatics has a method they use to derive each OQT. For the Olympics, they use the faster of the 14th place time in the heats of the last Olympics, or the OQT of the Olympics before. It just so happened that the 14th place finisher at Tokyo had a time of 53.61 and that's how we have the standard we have today. Now let's see how many qualifiers we have as of today:

 

 

NOC		ATHLETE 1 QUALIFICATION EVENT		RESULT	ATHLETE 2 QUALIFICATION EVENT	RESULT
Australia	2	Maximum Quota exceeded, Athlete 1 TBD		OQT X	Maximum Quota exceeded, Athlete 2 TBD	OQT X
Canada	0	OLEKSIAK Penny Bell Canadian Olympic & Paralympic Trials 2024		OCT 53.66
Czechia	0	SEEMANOVÁ Barbora World Aquatics Championships 2024		OCT 53.76
France	2	GASTALDELLO Béryl Giant Open Final 2023		OQT 53.60	WATTEL Marie World Aquatics Championships 2023	OQT 53.59
Great Britain	2	ANDERSON Freya British National Championships 2023		OQT 53.48	HOPKIN Anna World Aquatics Championships 2024	OQT 53.09
Hong Kong	1	HAUGHEY Siobhán World Aquatics Swimming World Cup Berlin 2023		OQT 52.02
Netherlands	1	STEENBERGEN Marrit World Aquatics Championships 2024		OQT 52.26
People's Republic of China	2	WU Qingfeng Chinese National Championships 2024		OQT 53.25	YANG Junxuan Chinese National Championships 2024	OQT 52.68
Sweden	1	COLEMAN Michelle World Aquatics Championships 2023		OQT 53.41
United States of America	2	Maximum Quota exceeded, Athlete 1 TBD		OQT X	Maximum Quota exceeded, Athlete 2 TBD	OQT X

 

As you can see, there are currently 13 projected qualifiers and to be honest, it's hard to see who else could reach that time. Sarah Sjoestroem has also gone under the OQT of 53.61 but she's already said she's not swimming this event so I've removed her. And of these swimmers, there's a chance they all won't be picked by their National Federations to swim it. Gastaldello and Wattel have both only reached the OQT once during the qualification period. There's a good chance they don't swim the time at French Trials so I'm not sure what the French Swimming Federation do about that. Freya Anderson was sick during British Trials so she didn't swim the time required at Trials. Not sure if British Swimming will let her swim this event either. Everyone else with an OQT should be fine.

 

Most events have over 20 qualifiers or at least in the high teens. So why so few qualifiers in this event (especially when both the 50m and 200m freestyle events have 20 qualifiers)? Well let's take a look at who the top 14 athletes were at the 2020 Olympic heats and what their qualification status is today.

 

1.  Emma McKeon (52.13) - Achieved OQT

2.  Siobhan Haughey (52.70) - Achieved OQT

3.  Anna Hopkin (52.75) - Achieved OQT

4.  Cate Campbell (52.80) - Achieved OQT

5.  Sarah Sjoestroem (52.91) - Achieved OQT, wont swim this event

6.  Penny Oleksiak (52.95) - Injured in late 2022, didn't get back to form until Canadian Trials, missed OQT by 0.05 seconds

7.  Pernille Blume (52.96)- Retired

8.  Yang Junxuan (53.02) - Achieved OQT

9.  Femke Heemskerk (53.10) - Retired

10.  Kayla Sanchez (53.12) - Started representing the Philippines last year. Hasn't come close to breaking 54 second since, let alone 53.61

11.  Abbey Weitzeil (53.21) - Achieved OQT

12.  Michelle Coleman (53.53) - Achieved OQT

13.  Signe Bro (53.54) - Times peaked in Tokyo. Has only been under 54 seconds once since then. Failed to reach OQT.

14.  Freya Anderson (53.61) - Achieved OQT

 

So of the 14, 9 have reached the OQT (of which one won't swim this event), two have retired, and 3 have declined in performance.

 

If we go further down the heat list,  Charlotte Bonnet (53.67) isn't focusing on freestyle anymore,  Marie Wattel (53.71) does have the OQT but has only reached it once this qualification period,  Ranomi Kromowidjojo (53.71) retired,  Erika Brown (now Connolly) (53.87) doesn't have the OQT,  Wu Qingfeng (53.87) does have the OQT,  Maria Kameneva (53.92) is banned,  Barbora Seemanova (53.98) has the consideration time so she could swim it, and I'm not sure what happened with  Andrea Murez (54.01) but she doesn't have the OQT either. Then there was a huge gap in times after Murez with the next fastest being 54.69. So of the top 22 swimmers from the Tokyo Olympic heats, only 11 swimmers have achieved the OQT.

 

Another problem is that hardly any swimmers have emerged or broken out in this event over the last 3 years. If we don't include athletes from the US, Australia or China, only  Marrit Steenbergen has had a breakthrough.

 

So let's take a look at the 2023 World Championships to see what kind of field we were dealing with.

 

 Haughey,  Weitzeil,  McKeon,  Wattel,  Coleman,  Steenbergen,  O'Callaghan,  Cheng Yujie were 1-8 in heats and all have the OQT.

 

#9 was  Stephanie Balduccini. Her PB is 54.05 set this year. She's still young though (19 years old) so if anyone not qualified yet could have a drop in time, it would be her.

 

Then #10,11, and 12 are  Gastaldello,  Kate Douglass, and  Yang who all have the time.

 

#13 was Sofia Morini. Her PB is 54.21 (0.8 seconds off the OQT).

#14 was  Aimee Canny. Her PB is 54.60 (almost a full second off the OQT). She is qualified in the 200m freestyle though.

#15 was  Signe Bro. Already talked about her.

#16 was  Rikako Ikee. Has been as fast as 52.79 before but hasn't swam the same since her leukemia diagnosis in 2019.

 

So as you can see, the field today is a lot less competitive than it was in Tokyo. At least most of these swimmers qualified in the relay events though. As a fan of swimming, it's just really frustrating to see athletes being unable to qualify because of insane qualification times compared to other events that have easier qualification times. Here's some other facts to show how absurd the OQT is:

 

•  Summer McIntosh (who's best stroke is freestyle) has the OQT in the 100m backstroke and 100m butterfly and yet her PB is still 0.29 seconds off the 100m freestyle OQT
•  Barbora Seemanova (primarily a 100 and 200m freestyler) has the 200m freestyle OQT, even has the 400m freestyle and 100m butterfly OQTs (two events she doesn't specialize in) and yet is still 0.15 seconds off the 100m freestyle OQT
•  Kornelia Fiedkiewicz is ranked 22nd this year in both the 50 and 100m freestyle events. She has the OQT in the 50m freestyle but yet is still 0.4 seconds off the 100m freestyle OQT
•  Alex Shackell (freestyler and butterflyer) has the OQT's in the 200m freestyle, 100m butterfly and 200m butterfly and is still off the 100m freestyle OQT by 0.5 seconds
•  Mary-Sophie Harvey has had a breakout meet at Canadian Trials this year. She beat the 100m butterfly OQT by 0.6 seconds, beat the 200m freestyle OQT by 1.8 seconds but was still off the 100m freestyle OQT by 0.1 seconds.
• Maggie MacNeil (who's second best stroke is freestyle) was also off the 100m freestyle OQT by 0.03 seconds. Yet she has the OQT in the 100m backstroke (her 3rd best stroke) during an event she wasn't tapered in.

 

So in conclusion, there will be very few qualifiers through the OQT, the heats will be uneventful, and there's a good chance we'll see multiple universality athletes reach the semifinals. 

 

The other events that have a concerning number of qualifiers are the women's distance events but at least they go directly to finals after heats. I could do another post about those events if you guys are interested.

I think Seemannová focuses mostly on 200m Freestyle. She made the final in Tokyo and NR so I suppose that's where she will be aiming. Honestly, I don't think she would participate in 4 events. But one never knows. 

[Topicmaster1010 5,759]

 Canadian Olympic Trials: Day 6

 

Women's 200m Butterfly (OQT: 2:08.43)

1. Summer McIntosh - 2:04.33 Q

2. Mabel Zavaros - 2:11.85

3. Breckin Gormley - 2:11.94

 

Decent swim for Summer. Was ahead of her PB after 150m but slowed on the last 50m. Still the #1 time in the world this year.

 

Men's 200m Individual Medley (OQT: 1:57.94)

1. Finlay Knox - 1:56.07 Q (Canadian Record) 

2. Tristan Jankovics - 1:59.32

3. Lorne Wigginton - 2:00.90

 

3rd fastest time in the World this year for Knox.

 

Men's 50m Freestyle (OQT: 21.96)

1. Josh Liendo - 21.48 Q (Canadian Record) 

2. Yuri Kisil - 22.01

3. Edouard Fullum-Huot - 22.14

 

4th fastest time in the World this year for Liendo.

 

Women's 800m Freestyle (OQT: 8:26.71)

1. Julia Strojnowska - 8:38.36

2. Emma Finlin - 8:38.48

3. Julie Brousseau - 8:41.03

 

Qualifiers after Day 6:

26 Swimmers (11 men + 15 women)

 

Priority 1: Swimmers finishing in the top 2 in an event at Olympic Trials with OQT (15 swimmers)

• Javier Acevedo - Men's 100m Backstroke, 4x100m Freestyle Relay
• Mary-Sophie Harvey - Women's 200m Freestyle, 100m Butterfly, 4x100m Freestyle Relay, 4x200m Freestyle Relay
• Tristan Jankovics - Men's 400m Individual Medley
• Ilya Kharun - Men's 200m Butterfly
• Yuri Kisil - Men's 100m Freestyle, 4x100m Freestyle Relay
• Finlay Knox - Men's 200m Individual Medley, 4x100m Freestyle Relay, 4x100m Medley Relay
• Josh Liendo - Men's 50m Freestyle, 100m Freestyle, 4x100m Freestyle Relay
• Maggie Mac Neil - Women's 100m Butterfly
• Kylie Masse - Women's 100m Backstroke, 200m Backstroke, 4x100m Medley Relay
• Summer McIntosh - Women's 200m Freestyle, 400m Freestyle, 200m Butterfly, 400m Individual Medley, 4x200m Freestyle Relay
• Sydney Pickrem - Women's 200m Breaststroke
• Regan Rathwell - Women's 200m Backstroke
• Blake Tierney - Men's 100m Backstroke, 200m Backstroke, 4x100m Medley Relay
• Ingrid Wilm - Women's 100m Backstroke
• Kelsey Wog - Women's 200m Breaststroke

 

Priority 2: Relay swimmers (top 4 in 100/200m freestyle + stroke 100 winners not in Priority 1) (10 swimmers)

• Sophie Angus - Women's 4x100m Medley Relay (Has the W 100m breaststroke OQT outside of trials)
• Alex Axon - Men's 4x200m Freestyle Relay
• Jeremy Bagshaw - Men's 4x200m Freestyle Relay
• Julie Brousseau - Women's 4x200m Freestyle Relay
• Brooklyn Douthwright - Women's 4x100m Freestyle Relay
• Patrick Hussey - Men's 4x200m Freestyle Relay
• Emma O'Croinin - Women's 4x200m Freestyle Relay
• Penny Oleksiak - Women's 4x100m Freestyle Relay, 4x100m Medley Relay
• Taylor Ruck - Women's 4x100m Freestyle Relay
• Lorne Wigginton - Men's 4x200m Freestyle Relay

 

Priority 3: Swimmers who place in the top 2 at Trials who have an OQT outside of Olympic Trials (1 swimmer)

• Ella Jansen - Women's 400m Individual Medley (Has the W 400m freestyle OQT outside of trials)

[dullard 744]

When a 2:04 doesn't get an emoji because you been faster already 

[dodge 1,040]

43 minutes ago, dullard said:

When a 2:04 doesn't get an emoji because you been faster already 

“Decent swim” 

[dantm 32]

2.04 looks like the cutoff for a medal in Paris for the 200 Fly

Summer and Regan Smith lead the way

Zhang Yufei has been 2.03 although not since Tokyo and it would not surprise if Dekkers hits 2.04 by Australian trials.

 

Edited May 19, 2024 by dantm

[Topicmaster1010 5,759]

 59th Malaysia Invitational Age Group Swimming Championships - Kuala Lumpur (MAS)

April 25th - April 28th 2024

 

Meet Results

 

 

No new OQTs were achieved

[Topicmaster1010 5,759]

 2024 Greek National Championships - Athens (GRE) 

May 17th - May 19th 2024

 

Meet Results

 

 

No new OQTs were achieved

[Topicmaster1010 5,759]

 Canadian Olympic Trials: Day 7

 

Women's 50m Freestyle (OQT: 24.70)

1. Penny Oleksiak - 25.06

2. Taylor Ruck - 25.08 Q

3. Ainsley McMurray - 25.43

 

Ruck will qualify in this event courtesy of a top 2 finish here and earning the OQT at the 2024 World Championships.

 

Men's 100m Butterfly (OQT: 51.67)

1. Josh Liendo - 50.06 Q (Canadian Record) 

2. Ilya Kharun - 51.09 Q

3. Finlay Knox - 51.42

 

#1 time in the World this year for Liendo. Was hoping for a sub-50 time but this is still an excellent time! Kharun also with the tied 8th fastest time in the World this year.

 

Women's 200m Individual Medley (OQT: 2:11.47)

1. Summer McIntosh - 2:07.06 Q 

2. Sydney Pickrem - 2:07.68 Q 

3. Mary-Sophie Harvey - 2:09.57

 

#3 time in the World for McIntosh this year behind McKeown. Pickrem also with a monster PB by almost a second to rank 5th in the World this year.

 

Men's 1500m Freestyle (OQT: 15:00.99)

1. Eric Brown - 15:23.87

2. Timothe Barbeau - 15:26.58

3. Olivier Risk - 15:28.53

 

Team announcement in roughly an hour.

[dullard 744]

Liendo's 100 fly is also a Commonwealth record. Not sure I see Temple getting it back at trials.

[NearPup 3,635]

has announced their Swimming team (includes both pool and open water swimmers)

 

Men:

• Tristan Jankovics
• Alexander Axon
• Blake Tierney
• Finlay Knox
• Jeremy Bagshaw
• Josh Liendo
• Apollo Hess
• Lorne Wigginton
• Javier Acevedo
• Yuri Kisil
• Patrick Hussey
• Illya Kharun

 

Women:

• Kylie Masse
• Emma O’Croinin
• Sophie Angus
• Ella Jansen
• Penny Oleksiak
• Rebecca Smith
• Ingrid Wilm
• Brooklyn Douthwright
• Regan Rathwell
• Julie Brousseau
• Kelsey Wog
• Sydney Pickrem
• Maggie MacNeil
• Emma Finlin
• Taylor Ruck
• Mary-Sophie Harvey
• Summer McIntosh