[Nickyc707 310]

31 minutes ago, EselTheDonkey said:

Isn't she injured? I thought she skipped Gateshead because of an injury?

Just a precaution for a tight hamstring.

 

 

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14 hours ago, mpjmcevoy said:

I would agree he'd be an excellent super domestique, with the capacity to move for himself depending on how the race panned out, but I don't think it's likely to happen. One would hope the more patchy quality of the Olympic field might help Yee, as there is less likely to be a pronounced break between a large group of strong swimmers and the rest, which would hopefully allow him to work himself back to the lead peloton.

 

In the women's side, for GB the perfect scenario would be the three women getting free with maybe another three or four others, with Learmouth piling it on at the front - that would put Georgia in a good spot for the run.

 

I think it's an odd scenario - the men's through yee is the best bet for gold - on is current form if he makes a manageable front group, he becomes favourite - but the women's race may be a batter bet for a medal at all, because its VERY hard to see all three failing, but there are a number of very dangerous entries that could beat them for gold in the run.

Changing sports there was another boost for your selection Sky Brown who won gold at the X Games yesterday.

 

 

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12 minutes ago, mpjmcevoy said:

Jonnie Brownlee is a romantic hoice, but not a rational one - frankly, Alex Yee is a MUCN likelier winner at the moment - if he makes the front group on the bike after the swim - and that IF is the key - , on current form, he's slight favourite - Vincent Luis is not close to his form leading up to the Pandemic. Mola of course will always be a threat.

 

Brownlee, however, will be in his element in the relay - he's actually much stronger over sprint distances than Ali Brownlee ever was, and stick him after the superswimmer Learmouth....

Brownlee would probably be best employed as a support rider in the individual event trying to deliver Yee in the leading group for the run.

[Nickyc707 310]

1 hour ago, OlympicsFan said:

I think your men’s 800 free relay is a far bigger favorite than Asher-Smith. I think even your women’s 4x100 m relay has a better chance to medal (bronze behind the US and Jamaica) than Asher-Smith individually.

Asher-Smith is just one of a group of likely medallists I mentioned and frankly I think you're badly underestimating her in the 200m.

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1 hour ago, mpjmcevoy said:

I see a lot of that for GB actually - they'll be in a scrap for gold, which they might lose, but hard to see no medal at all - both Duncan Scott's events fall into that class, for example, as do both Triathlon relay, Women's Omnium, Madison and Team Pursuit (the latter maybe less of a battle)

Yes, I'm far far more confident in picking medallists than gold medallists!

 

There are also some imponderables like who still makes it as far as Tokyo including competitors from other nations, who avoids health issues when they arrive and how athletes deal with the weather conditions in outdoor events, especially after so little competition during the past two years.

 

The potential for surprises is probably greater than at any OG I can remember.

 

PS Talking of imponderables I'm really looking forward to seeing how Tom Pidcock performs in the MTB.

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20 minutes ago, mpjmcevoy said:

All very, very good calls - Mixed relay triathlon in particular, given recent Yee form. I'd be tempted to add Laugher & Goodfellow, 3m synchro, Duncan Scott, 200 free, mens  4x200 freestyle, mixed 4x100 medley and the women's 4 x 100m relay in athletics, Sky Brown, skateboarding, Kate French in Modern Pentathlon, Duncan Scott (again) 200 IM, Max Whitlock in pommel horse, and Laura Trott-Kenny in Omnium.

 

For my primary team, Ireland -

 

I think we're about to have a hell of a games, honestly (by our standards, anyway) - LM2x, W1x and W4x, Kellie Harrington, quite possibly Michaela Walsh, Rhys McClenaghan in pommel horse, all really solid medal shots, with several of the boy boxers a good shout as well. Our record for a single games is 6 medals, our gold record for a single games is 3, and they don't really count (Michelle de Bruin Smith), the record after that is 2 golds. I think those numbers,  2 golds and 6 total medals could genuinely be under threat at this games, especially if we can sneak a medal in Equestrianism or road cycling (long shots both, but both possible)....

 

I forsee, in particular, a couple of possibly intriguing GBR v IRL battles - Pommel, Harrington v Dubois, Possible Puspure v Thornley

Firstly, I'd agree that potentially this could be Ireland's greatest OG, particularly as they are less dependent on boxing to achieve success this time around. Hopefully you're right about the men's pommel. We don't want a repeat of the EC for either gymnast!

 

I don't disagree on your other GB choices and there are others. For instance, in the women's Madison Kenny and Archibald will be closely marked like the Dutch but both pairs are so good it seems a decent bet that they'll pick up two of the medals between them.

[Nickyc707 310]

 In no particular order: Men's Eight (Rowing), Women's Team Pursuit (Cycling) and Adam Peaty - 100m breaststroke (Swimming).

 

Ten others who I'm confident will medal, again in no particular order: Dina Asher-Smith 200m (Athletics), Pat McCormack - Welterweight (Boxing), Lauren Price - Middleweight (Boxing), Liam Heath - K1 200m (Canoeing), Helen Glover & Polly Swann - Women's pair (Rowing), Giles Scott - Finn class (Sailing), Men's 4x100m medley (Swimming), Jade Jones - 57kg (Taekwondo), Georgia Taylor-Brown (or either of her teammates) (Triathlon), Mixed relay (Triathlon).

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8 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

Nothing is ever safe, but I'd go for this:

 

1. Women's road race --> Basically all four women have an excellent chance to win the gold. I hope it won't happen, but even a double or triple medal win is not unrealistic (although of course it's the road race, a ton can happen)

 

2. Women's time trial --> Basically the same sort of thing, although with Van der Breggen and Van Vleuten there's only two and there's always Dygert. I hope Dygert is all recovered and fit, in which case she's the clear favourite (but still a Dutch medal should be fairly safe).

 

3. Women's 1500/5000/10.000m (whichever Hassan runs) --> She's a gold medal threat in whichever event she chooses to run, and a nearly safe medal bet as well. Gold is a different thing of course, but it's hard to imagine three women beating her.

 

Bonus: Men's mountainbike --> A pretty open field, but a 'normal' Van der Poel really should be a nearly safe medal threat.

 

Forgot women's field hockey, that should be a fairly safe medal as well. Same for certain track cycling events, but there we'll have to wait and see which super round wheels the British will show up with  

I'd imagine it will be French ones as usual.

[Nickyc707 310]

8 minutes ago, Giovanni Gianni Cattaneo said:

Out, only 3?
- Rubgy7
- Skateboard
- Artistic swimming

IN
- Rugby 15
no others. 

Given the physical nature of the sport how would you fit a 15 man a side rugby competition into the 16 days of the OG? Also it comes up against the issue that golf and tennis face that the OG would not be regarded as the peak of the sport as it is in Sevens.

[Nickyc707 310]

20 minutes ago, OlympicIRL said:

Out:

 

• Basketball 3x3
• Karate
• Skateboarding

 

In:

 

• Darts (same format as World Cup or similar to that)
• Bowls
• Bowling

 

 

Would love to see squash and snooker there too but I think I would be genuinely more excited by the other 3.

Do you enjoy a pint while you're playing your sport by any chance?

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New venues at some stage: Cape Town, Istanbul, Toronto and perhaps Madrid. The latter has issues from my perspective (see below).

 

Former host cities: London, Rome, Sydney.

 

I must admit I prefer cities both at sea level and near the sea - in Toronto's case an inland sea - to avoid issues with altitude (Mexico city) and lessen the impact of heat and/or pollution (Beijing). It also means you can locate all the sports in close proximity which was not possible in a number of venues, e.g. Atlanta, Munich, etc.

[Nickyc707 310]

56 minutes ago, dodge said:

It caused our first ever dressage team to disappear due to age, injury and pregnancy (all separate events  )

 

The riders or the horses or both?

[Nickyc707 310]

Male - Ed Clancey (cycling) although I'd also be happy with Mo Sbihi (rowing), Adam Dixon (hockey) or Geraint Thomas (cycling) - we've had a Scot the last two times , so we're due a Welshman).

Female - Jade Jones (taekwondo) - another Welsh choice (No, I'm not Welsh!)

[Nickyc707 310]

Overall it has probably helped. Just to take one sport namely rowing it has led to some changes of personnel in terms of both coaches and athletes. For example one rower (Tom Ransley, medallist in 2012/16) retired due to the delay but another (Helen Glover, double gold medallist 2012/16) has been able to come out of retirement after having three children. 33 of the 41 rowers we're sending to Tokyo are debutants and the extra year has allowed to them to gain greater experience and gel together as crews. I don't think there's any doubt that the squad is now stronger than it was a year ago and now has more realistic medal hopes.

 

That's just one sport and it will vary from sport to sport and athlete to athlete but I think the delay has probably benefited GB in more cases than it has not.

[Nickyc707 310]

Summer or Summer and Winter?

[Nickyc707 310]

What if you don't think any of them will occur?

[Nickyc707 310]

10 hours ago, Vektor said:

If I have to pick one, I would go with bowls. It's kinda like the Summer Games version of curling and I have fond memories of watching it on Eurosport in the late 2000s. For me it was a fun game/sport to spectate, which makes sense because curling is one of my favorite winter sports to watch. But does anyone outside of  play bowls? 

The most successful nations at international level are Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, GB and Ireland. Canada, Malaysia and Zimbabwe have also had a lot of success at the Comminwealth Games. At world championship level countries like Israel and the US have medalled.

 

Like Rugby Sevens it's also a popular sport in many of the Pacific Islands.

 

I don't know how widely it's played in Europe but countries like the Czech Rep, the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden are members of World Bowls.