Giovanni Gianni Cattaneo

For Italy:
- F. MONDELLI (Rowing), World champion 2018 4X. Bone cancer (terrible diagnosis  )
- F. MARRAI (Sailing), n.1 world ranking laser in 2018, unsuitable
- J. HERRERA (Athetics), World finalist 2019 relay 4x100, biceps tendon detachment

- L. BOSETTI* (Volleyball), Word silver MEdal in 2019, Right sholuder 



* in doubt

26 minutes ago, phelps said:

 

I agree...the qualification process has good principles, but really messy development...

 

however, more than a question of qualification (if ITA are going to have 1 weightlifter at the Games, that's Pizzolato), I was happy to see that some of his potential rivals in this period are not growing too fast and more than our guy (the Bulgarian more than the Armenian, who likely is not going to start in Tokyo, as ARM only have 1 quota because of doping sanctions and almost certainly they're going to use it for Martyrosian)...

Italy Will go with 3 weighlifter. Zanni, Pizzolato, and Bordignon.

13 minutes ago, Vojthas said:

Well, that makes things easy as I found quite a cheap accomodation right in Valmontone, I'm just not sure about the buses between Valmontone and Artena - how often do they go (or maybe how expensive/cheap would be the taxi). I was thinking about making two reservations - for holiday in Rome and separately for the Fair in Artena (or Valmontone in fact).

In Italy, taxi are very expensive. Bus, in the Week are enough frequently. Saturday or sunday it's not so easy. About every 20'in the Week.

Hi Vojthas. I'm from rome. Artena is near Rome,  about 40 minutes of car, but is not so easy to come with bus or train. You have first to go in Valmontone, with trains, than change and go to Artena with bus.

So, much better you stay in Rome. A possibile alternate is for you to stay in Valmontone, or Colleferro. 30' of train to Rome, 30' of bus far Artena.

1 hour ago, Benolympique said:

What's the program tonight, how many regattas? Shall we start with the final regattas? The points are reset?

Tonight 4regattas for every class. Points are not resetted, fleet are divided in gold (first 25/30), silver and maybe  bronze 

17 hours ago, JoshMartini007 said:

I was bored so I tried to see if I can come up with a better system for predicting medals. Places like GraceNote essentially take the top three contenders and give them gold, silver and bronze. That tends to cause situations where a nation with a 50% chance to win say 12 events would be predicted to win 12 medals, but in reality they would only win six. Usually this is masked by the overall medal count, but it becomes apparent if you look at the details for individual sports.

 

Currently my model is quite early in development, it doesn't take into account the maximum athletes per nation in a specific event or the chances of an athlete to fail (DNS/DSQ/DNF etc). It also only currently works for events where you can obtain a score/time/measurement (placing/head to head events will have to wait).

 

Here's a sample of the men's 100m (top 5) that I was using as my test data.

 

Men's 100m

Gold

- 76.4%

- 17.8%

- 1.9%

- 1.5%

- 0.9%

 

Silver

- 60.6%

- 17.8%

- 5.8%

- 4.4%

- 4.2%

 

Bronze

- 46.0%

- 14.7%

- 9.9%

- 7.7%

- 6.3%

 

 

As mentioned above, the United States is currently a bit inflated due to more than three athletes contributing to its chances (removing them manually and redistributing it would give them 73.3%, 53.5% and 38.6% chances respectively).

Amazing! 

NACRA: ITA, AUS

49ers M AUS, ARG
49ers F NZL, DEN

18 hours ago, Benolympique said:

RESERVED EQUESTRIAN

 

Equestrian at the Summer Olympic Games 2020 - Mixed Team Jumping + Individual

• TBD (3 Quotas)

What is that? Thank you for your fantastic post!!!

On 19/09/2019 at 13:09, Gianlu33 said:

Let's do a review after 1 year...

 

Let's start 
 

 Hi My friend, add my count and a nuemeric review (opt, realistic, pessimistic)

 

 

 Archery: Some troubles with the team... We can still qualify both team  (6-4-2)

 Artistic Swimming: We improve in the last 10 years, like in Rio the objective in archive the full quota.(10)

 Athletics: In London and in Rio we qualified 38 athletes, in Doha around 65. 40 will be a good number. (60-50-40)

 Badminton: No anyone, maybe Caponio with a lot of luck.(1-0-0)

 Baseball: Netherlands is still the favourite, it will be close  NO ONE, PASS FOR ISR (0)

 Basketball: With some luck our men's team can back at the games.(12-0-0)

 Beach Volleyball: Probabily 3 pairs (2 M +1 W) (6-6-6)

 Boxing: From 4 to 6 quotas I THINK A LITTLE MORE, 2-3 W AND 4-5 - (8-7-6)

 Canoeing - Slalom: Full quota set (4-3-3)

 Canoeing - Sprint: Around 6 athletes... I hope UHM VERY HARD (6-5-4)

 Cycling - BMX: With a lot of luck, only Fantoni.(1-0-0)

 Cycling - Mountain Bike: 3 men and 1 woman. (4-4-4)

 Cycling - Road: Italy will easy qualify the max contigent (5-5-5)

 Cycling - Track: Both pursuit team and the omnium. (5-5-5)

 Diving: Let's hope that Cagnotto will back... Around 5-6 (6-5-4)

 Equestrian: Italy qualified the eventing team, and for the jumping will be a 50-50 (6-6-3)

 Fencing: 24 athletes, why not?  (24-22-20)

 Field Hockey: No anyone (0-0-0)

 Football: What flop...(0)

 Golf: 2 M + 1 W MAYBE SECOND WOMAN (4-3-3)

 Gymnastics - Artistic: Around 6 athletes HOPE BOTH MEN AND WOMEN (9-5-2)

 Gymnastics - Rhythmic: Full quotas  (7-7-7)

 Gymnastics - Trampoline: Our biggest athlete is a 37 years old and he will watch the Games on his sofa (0)

 Handball: Italian handball? What is? (0)

 Judo: From 3 to 9 quotas 3? NOT SO TERRIBLE! (8-7-6)

 Karate: Very strict qualification process, from 3 to 5. AND MORE FROM QUALIFYNG TOURNAMENT (6-5-4)

 Modern Pentathlon: We have a great women's team and a nice men's team.. 3/4 quotas I guess (4-3-2)

 Rowing: From 23 to 29 quotas (29-27-25)

 Rugby Sevens: What?  0

 Sailing: Like in Rio, 13 quotas.(14-13-11)

 Shooting: From 8 to 12 (12-10-8)

 Skateboarding: Sure at last 2, maybe one women too in the street event. (3-2-2)

 Softball: Full quota 15

 Sport Climbing: 2 quotas (3-2-1)

 Surfing: 1 or 0 (1-1-0)

 Swimming: From 30 to 40 (40-36-34)

 Table Tennis: 1 or 0 (1-0-0)

 Taekwondo: Dell'Aquila is the biggest chance, maybe Rotolo and Alessio. (2-1-1)

 Tennis: 6 or 4 (6-5-4)

 Triathlon: It's hard to say.. maybe 4 or 5. (5-5-4)

 Volleyball: Both teams (24)

 Water Polo: Both teams (22)

 Weightlifting: From 2 to 3 (3-2-1)

 Wrestling: Chamizo is the only one that is sure to archive the qualification. Maybe other 2 (4-3-2)

 Qualified: 119

 Optimistic Total Athletes: 406(difference betweet 2018: 0) 390


 Realistic Total Athletes: 321 (dif. +26) 360

 Pessimistic Total Athletes: 254 (dif. +13) 310