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MantaRaymarc

Athletics Qualification for Summer Olympic Games 2016

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4 minutes ago, OlympicsFan said:

Some crazy times from Semenya early in the season:

50.7 400 m (huge new PB)

1:58 800 m

4:10 1500 m (huge new PB)

 

Those times for one athlete are already crazy in itself, but to make things crazier: did you notice that she ran those three times back-to-back-to-back in only 4 hours at the S-A Championships? :lol:

 

I really don't see her win 400m gold by the way if she keeps going like this (there's still a huge difference between a 50.half and a 49.half which will probably be the very least to win gold or even silver). Her 1500m would worry me a lot more than her 400m to be honest, as the Olympic 1500m final probably isn't gonna be a "speed race". 

Edited by heywoodu

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1 minute ago, heywoodu said:

Those times for one athlete are already crazy in itself, but to make things crazier: did you notice that she ran those three times back-to-back-to-back in only 4 hours at the S-A Championships? :lol:

Yes and there were only about 50 minutes between her 400 m and her 800 m run and she had negative splits in those races ...

Womens 800 m race will be really fun to watch, "she" will play with all those girls and then destroy them on the last lap without even trying hard.

It would be really cool if she would break the world records of Koch and Kratochvilova. I always thought that the 400 m world record would be unbreakable, but now i think that Semenya is the only one who could break it in the next couple of years.

Poor Allyson Felix, she is really in a trap ... :cry:

At 200 m she cant beat Schippers and at 400 m she might be chanceless against Semenya.

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15 minutes ago, OlympicsFan said:

Yes and there were only about 50 minutes between her 400 m and her 800 m run and she had negative splits in those races ...

Womens 800 m race will be really fun to watch, "she" will play with all those girls and then destroy them on the last lap without even trying hard.

It would be really cool if she would break the world records of Koch and Kratochvilova. I always thought that the 400 m world record would be unbreakable, but now i think that Semenya is the only one who could break it in the next couple of years.

Poor Allyson Felix, she is really in a trap ... :cry:

At 200 m she cant beat Schippers and at 400 m she might be chanceless against Semenya.

Now hold on a minute, I still think Felix has a more than decent chance to beat Schippers :d 

 

The bookmakers say Schippers has around 60-65% chance to win the gold, but honestly I don't agree with that. Mostly because the track in Beijing was so insanely fast, that crazy time there doesn't mean that much (of course it means something though) and because Felix has always shown to be at her absolute best when it matters most, basically for the past 10 years or so. It's nice that Schippers showed her best at World Champs, but the Olympics is a whole different level of pressure and where Felix has shown to not give a damn about that, Schippers first will have to prove that. 

 

Of course I agree that if nothing weird happens, Schippers, Felix and probably Thompson should win the three medals, but I don't think Schippers is such a huge favorite as people think she is. Bookmakers have odds of 4.50 for Schippers not winning a gold medal and personally I would bet some money on that if they would let me bet more than a crappy 5 euro. 

 

And about the 400m: I might see Semenya improve to 50.0 or something within the next few months, but getting to sub-49.5 doesn't seem like something I expect her to do (and I do expect Felix to do so). 

Edited by heywoodu

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41 minutes ago, OlympicsFan said:

Some crazy times from Semenya early in the season:

50.7 400 m (huge new PB)

1:58 800 m

4:10 1500 m (huge new PB)

I hope that IAAF stops her before Rio, otherwise she will get the 800 m gold and probably also the 400 m gold. Womens 800 m could be the most disgusting event in Rio, we also have Niyonsaba and Wambui. In the end it might very well be possible that no real woman will win a medal.

I also think that IAAF's policy is very unfair. Markus Rehm has to prove that he has no advantage if he wants to compete in Rio, but Semenya will be allowed to compete unless someone proves that she has an advantage (not that i would like to see Rehm competing in Rio).

 

I found the comments a little difficult to digest ...... semenya has been tested and allowed to participate under the rules..................... Unlike some of the drug freaks ...she was born the way she was ................... to say that she is disgusting is to say that a seven feet basketball player idisgusting .... they have some form of physical harmones which can cause an athelete to have an advantage ............................. once the law has been decided and she has been allowed to play as per the law ...then just admire the fact that she is a great talent and let her play ...........................

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the only problem with Semenya - if she has some advantage and it seems she has - is shall they let her fight with woman (a bit unfair for all of them) or man (a bit unfair to her). Very difficult situation in ethic perspective and i`m not able to judge it since it is not that clear medically what sort of advantage she has (i don`t know it). If her advantage over typicull woman is huge or big maybe the most ethic option would be in fact to say "stop running with woman". I just mean kind of "justice" and "equal chances" only. So if her advantage is "big" maybe she should try to fight with man at her risk, so tough to judge

Edited by Pavlo

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as to me...i`m not able to "cheer" her knowing she has probably some "advantage", in fact i always cheer for other runners only cuz they`re "up against it" fighting with her, i feel for them in fact a bit to be in such situation.

 

I have nth against Semenya to be clear, i`m not sure if her right to fight should be fulfilled at someone elses cost, just it. If i were her i wouldn`t find any satisfaction in winning with weaker people, just this, if i were her - i wouldn`t compete in OG. In some way it is a kind of "natural doping".

 

BTW - sometimes i fell like.....her running at some 70% of abilities not to show how much stronger she is, just the impression i have

Edited by Pavlo

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2 hours ago, heywoodu said:

Now hold on a minute, I still think Felix has a more than decent chance to beat Schippers :d 

 

The bookmakers say Schippers has around 60-65% chance to win the gold, but honestly I don't agree with that. Mostly because the track in Beijing was so insanely fast, that crazy time there doesn't mean that much (of course it means something though) and because Felix has always shown to be at her absolute best when it matters most, basically for the past 10 years or so. It's nice that Schippers showed her best at World Champs, but the Olympics is a whole different level of pressure and where Felix has shown to not give a damn about that, Schippers first will have to prove that. 

 

Of course I agree that if nothing weird happens, Schippers, Felix and probably Thompson should win the three medals, but I don't think Schippers is such a huge favorite as people think she is. Bookmakers have odds of 4.50 for Schippers not winning a gold medal and personally I would bet some money on that if they would let me bet more than a crappy 5 euro. 

 

And about the 400m: I might see Semenya improve to 50.0 or something within the next few months, but getting to sub-49.5 doesn't seem like something I expect her to do (and I do expect Felix to do so). 

I dont think that Felix wouldve been able to beat Schippers last year, at best they are at about the same level. Schippers is the favorite because she is younger, has more room for improvements and the 100/200 double is much easier than the 200/400 double. Dina Asher-Smith. Tori Bowie, SAFP or Candace Hill could also fight for a medal in Rio. Someone who runs 50.7 without serious opponents so early in season and wit negative splits can at least run 49.5 later in season. It might not be enough for gold, but it should be enough for a medal. I think Semenya doesnt want to get too much attention, so she will probably focus on 800 m and not run too crazy times, but i still dont see anyone beating her in Rio. Schippers has at least 50% to win the 200 m gold, i wouldnt bet anything against her, she has shown huge improvements every year. I think she has also a good chance to win the 100 m gold, the odds are probably 50% for SAFP, 30% for Schippers and 20% for the rest (Bowie, Ahoure, Okagbare and so on).

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1 hour ago, OlympicsFan said:

I dont think that Felix wouldve been able to beat Schippers last year, at best they are at about the same level. Schippers is the favorite because she is younger, has more room for improvements and the 100/200 double is much easier than the 200/400 double. Dina Asher-Smith. Tori Bowie, SAFP or Candace Hill could also fight for a medal in Rio. Someone who runs 50.7 without serious opponents so early in season and wit negative splits can at least run 49.5 later in season. It might not be enough for gold, but it should be enough for a medal. I think Semenya doesnt want to get too much attention, so she will probably focus on 800 m and not run too crazy times, but i still dont see anyone beating her in Rio. Schippers has at least 50% to win the 200 m gold, i wouldnt bet anything against her, she has shown huge improvements every year. I think she has also a good chance to win the 100 m gold, the odds are probably 50% for SAFP, 30% for Schippers and 20% for the rest (Bowie, Ahoure, Okagbare and so on).

I still dont agree about the 200m but I pretty much entirely agree on the 100m percentages.

 

Personally I think the chance of her winning 0 gold medals is around 25-30% :) 

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3 hours ago, Pavlo said:

the only problem with Semenya - if she has some advantage and it seems she has - is shall they let her fight with woman (a bit unfair for all of them) or man (a bit unfair to her). Very difficult situation in ethic perspective and i`m not able to judge it since it is not that clear medically what sort of advantage she has (i don`t know it). If her advantage over typicull woman is huge or big maybe the most ethic option would be in fact to say "stop running with woman". I just mean kind of "justice" and "equal chances" only. So if her advantage is "big" maybe she should try to fight with man at her risk, so tough to judge

 

Well, this is basically like hoping that FIBA bans all men that are taller than 2 meters and all women that are taller than 1.8 meters... They also have an advantage over typical people. Or like hoping that FIG will ban all flexible women from gymnastics, because most women aren't that flexible.

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4 hours ago, nitinsanker said:

 

I found the comments a little difficult to digest ...... semenya has been tested and allowed to participate under the rules..................... Unlike some of the drug freaks ...she was born the way she was ................... to say that she is disgusting is to say that a seven feet basketball player idisgusting .... they have some form of physical harmones which can cause an athelete to have an advantage ............................. once the law has been decided and she has been allowed to play as per the law ...then just admire the fact that she is a great talent and let her play ...........................

Sorry, but where exactly did i say that Semenya is disgusting? I just find the thought that 3 athletes who absolutely dont look like women win the medals in womens 800 disgusting. Semenya did nothing wrong and i dont blame her for anything. I also dont understand why Semenya is allowed to compete but not someone like Rehm, although its obvious to anyone that Semenya has a bigger advantage. Semenya comes from a very poor background, most people would do the same in her situation, but IAAF has to exclude her from all womens competitions. Do you want to "hurt" the right of 3 or 4 woman or the right of all other women who have no chance against competitors like Semenya? CAS ruled that IAAF has to prove that Semenya has an advantage, i think the same would apply for Rehm, so he should have a good chance to compete in Rio, if he decides to sue IAAF. I know that IAAF has other problems (doping), but if they dont exclude Semenya now, she will win an olympic gold medal and i am sure that after that they will be forced to exclude Semenya. Semenya just has to hope that IAAF will be too busy to care for her case in the next couple of months, than i see no one who could stop her on her way to at least one olympic gold (maybe except Niyonsaba). You obviously didnt follow the case or you dont really know how to express yourself, otherwise i dont know what "Semenya has been tested and allowed to participate under the rules" is supposed to mean in this context. Dopers betray on purpose, they are cheaters, unlike Semenya, but in some sense she is "worse" than all dopers. Everyone can start to dope, in order to make up for the unfair advantage of dopers, but its impossible for other athletes to "copy" Semenya, they will never have the chance of running fast. In my opinion there are three fair options:

1) Semenya stays as she is and competes against men.

2) There has to be some new sort of "category" at the paralympic games for athletes like Semenya.

3) She takes whatever is required to lower her testosterone level, so that she has about the same level as "normal" woman.

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6 minutes ago, dcro said:

 

Well, this is basically like hoping that FIBA bans all men that are taller than 2 meters and all women that are taller than 1.8 meters... They also have an advantage over typical people. Or like hoping that FIG will ban all flexible women from gymnastics, because most women aren't that flexible.

Not really ...

You should first try to understand the case and then you should learn a bit about genetics and biochemistry (maybe Wanderer can help you with that one).

Semenya isnt a woman with a genetic advantage, she really cant be classified as a (genetically) "normal" woman.

No one thinks that she is a woman with a special talent who should be banned, but most people doubt that she can even be classified as a woman.

Edited by OlympicsFan

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3 hours ago, Pavlo said:

as to me...i`m not able to "cheer" her knowing she has probably some "advantage", in fact i always cheer for other runners only cuz they`re "up against it" fighting with her, i feel for them in fact a bit to be in such situation.

 

I have nth against Semenya to be clear, i`m not sure if her right to fight should be fulfilled at someone elses cost, just it. If i were her i wouldn`t find any satisfaction in winning with weaker people, just this, if i were her - i wouldn`t compete in OG. In some way it is a kind of "natural doping".

 

BTW - sometimes i fell like.....her running at some 70% of abilities not to show how much stronger she is, just the impression i have

Utilitarianism might be the answer, but as a lawyer you probably dont like this "theory"?

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