Paris 2024 - Early Predictions - Day by Day

[dullard 699]

1 minute ago, rafalgorka said:

@dullard can you please remind me this Italian swimming site with all the top lists and stats, I somehow lost it...

All time - http://nuotomondiale.altervista.org/index.html

Annual - http://nuotomondiale.altervista.org/annual_lists.html

[Dragon 1,845]

56 minutes ago, rafalgorka said:

 

 

6. ROAD CYCLING - M Ind Time Trial

 

1. Remco Evenepoel BEL

2. Tadej Pogacar SLO

3. Filippo Ganna ITA

 

Day 1 is pretty good for current World Champions, so Evenepoel gets gold as well. But it is very close race, all three medalists within 15 seconds

 

 

I think the men's event could be decided on what happens at the Tour de France. Whether Evanepoel or Ganna take part and whether Pogacar has a  hard race or not. Also don't rule out Tarling GBR for a medal. World bronze medalist at 19, which is an age where you can improve huge amounts in a short time.

 

 

[rafalgorka 1,532]

27 minutes ago, Dragon said:

I think the men's event could be decided on what happens at the Tour de France. Whether Evanepoel or Ganna take part and whether Pogacar has a  hard race or not. Also don't rule out Tarling GBR for a medal. World bronze medalist at 19, which is an age where you can improve huge amounts in a short time.

 

 

True. You are 100% right.

 

And I didn't forget Turling surely. Let's say he is currently 4th in my predictions. He's the one to watch next season for sure.

If people get interested in this thread, when we finish day 16 I can come back to square one and update all these predictions according to all suggestions and comments we will hopefully see here

[rafalgorka 1,532]

35 minutes ago, dullard said:

All time - http://nuotomondiale.altervista.org/index.html

Annual - http://nuotomondiale.altervista.org/annual_lists.html

Thanks a lot, this site rulez!!!

[rafalgorka 1,532]

I made similar thread before Tokyo and my predictions were total disaster :-))) we will see if this time i will be better in this thing

 

https://totallympics.com/forums/topic/2360-tokyo-2020-day-after-day-as-it-could-have-happened/#comments

 

Edited September 24, 2023 by rafalgorka

[rafalgorka 1,532]

While watching a nice game of rugby SCO vs TGA, I was thinking about your comments here and I guess you are absolutely right about McIntosh chances vs Ledecky in W 400m free.

3.56.08 vs 3.58.73 on 2023 LC world lists is a big difference.

 

So i have decided to upgrade McIntosh to silver and Ledecky gets bronze.

 

The rest stays the same. Turling is close 4th in M time trial. AUS still beat ITA in m relay by a smallest difference possible.

 

So it looks like that now:

 

Day 1 Sat 27.07

 

1. DIVING - W Synchro 3m Springboard

 

1. China

2. United States

3. Great Britain

 

Similar results to 2023 WCH, but this time USA will be able to repeat their qualifying score in the final

 

2. FENCING - W Epee Ind

 

1. Marie-Florence Candassamy FRA

2. Vivian Kong HKG

3. Alberta Santuccio ITA

 

Candassamy, current World Champion and no. 1 in world rankings, winning gold on home soil in style. Allez Les Bleus!

 

3. FENCING - M Sabre Ind

 

1. Sandro Bazadze GEO

2. Eli Dershwitz USA

3. Aron Szilagyi HUN

 

Bazadze making revenge for the 2023 WCH final

 

4. JUDO - W -48kg

 

1. Natsumi Tsunoda JPN

2. Assunta Scutto ITA

3. Shirine Boukli FRA

3. Milica Nikolic SRB

 

Tsunoda coming from behind with an ippon in the final seconds, a final for the ages

 

5. JUDO - M -60kg

 

1. Ryuju Nagayama JPN

2. Francisco Garrigos ESP

3. Dilshodbek Baratov UZB

3. Balabay Aghayev AZE

 

2nd gold for JPN, Nagayama instead of Takato in the olympic tournament turns out to be a good choice

 

6. ROAD CYCLING - M Ind Time Trial

 

1. Remco Evenepoel BEL

2. Tadej Pogacar SLO

3. Filippo Ganna ITA

 

Day 1 is pretty good for current World Champions, so Evenepoel gets gold as well. But it is very close race, all three medalists within 15 seconds

 

7. ROAD CYCLING - W Ind Time Trial

 

1. Chloe Dygert USA

2. Demi Vollering NED

3. Grace Brown AUS

 

First gold of the games for Team USA

 

8. RUGBY SEVENS - M Tournament

 

1. Fiji

2. New Zealand

3. Argentina

 

Aaaaand Fiji wins again, never underestimate the heart of the champion, they say... Ireland 4th after last-minute try by Argentina

 

9. SHOOTING - Mixed Team 10m Air Rifle

 

1. China

2. India

3. Iran

 

Iran hard-won bronze against hosts

 

10. SKATEBOARDING - M Street

 

1. Aurelien Giraud FRA

2. Nyjah Huston USA

3. Gustavo Ribeiro POR

 

And 2nd gold for France on Day 1, no surprise here as well

 

11. SWIMMING - M 400m Free

 

1. Ahmed Hafnaoui TUN

2. Samuel Short AUS

3. Lukas Martens GER

 

This time Tunisia gets gold from Lane 4, not 8

 

12. SWIMMING - W 400m Free

 

1. Ariarne Titmus AUS

2. Summer McIntosh CAN

3. Katie Ledecky USA

 

McIntosh gets her first medal here, much better race for her than 2023 WCH (updated, because previously I thought it could be 2. Ledecky 3. McIntosh)

 

13. SWIMMING - W 4x100m Free Relay

 

1. Australia

2. United States

3. China

 

Aussies with WR, obviously

 

14. SWIMMING - M 4x100m Free Relay

 

1. Australia

2. Italy

3. Great Britain

 

Chalmers denying Ceccon by 0,01 sec. GBR didn't get DSQ this time. But US did.

 

Medal table after Day 1 (14 events)

 

3-1-1---5

2-0-1---3

2-0-1---3

2-0-0---2

1-4-1---6

1-0-0---1

1-0-0---1

1-0-0---1

1-0-0---1

0-2-2---4

0-2-0---2

0-1-0---1

0-1-0---1

0-1-0---1

0-1-0---1

0-1-0---1

0-1-0---1

0-0-2---2

0-0-1---1

0-0-1---1

0-0-1---1

0-0-1---1

0-0-1---1

0-0-1---1

0-0-1---1

0-0-1---1

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 25, 2023 by rafalgorka

[Jinzha 702]

9 hours ago, rafalgorka said:

Thanks for your comment! You are probably right.

 

My explaination for 2. Ledecky 3. McIntosh would be: Ledecky uses her experience in the final, not chasing Titmus too hard from the beginning and concentrating on beating the Canadian. And McIntosh will be nervous as hell, not as much as in the 2023 WCH final but still... Fortunately, this time she gets bronze. But no worries - SPOILERS ALERT - McIntosh will not leave my Imaginary Paris olympics without gold... :-)

 

Gold for AUS in 4x100m relay - because Chalmers won't be too far away when he starts the anchor leg and he will do his magic trick again...

 

Anyway, Aussies on the top of the medal table after Day One. Congrats!

 

Best result for POL - hmmm.. 5th place in Mixed 10m Air Rifle Shooting event...

For the womens time trial I have a gut feeling Ellen van Dijk is going to do something special. She's currently pregnant and she'll be 37 years old in Paris, but a time trial medal at the Olympics is her final goal before retiring and I think she might be able to win one behind Dygert and Brown.

[rafalgorka 1,532]

6 minutes ago, Jinzha said:

For the womens time trial I have a gut feeling Ellen van Dijk is going to do something special. She's currently pregnant and she'll be 37 years old in Paris, but a time trial medal at the Olympics is her final goal before retiring and I think she might be able to win one behind Dygert and Brown.

And how about Vollering in the time trial?

[Jinzha 702]

23 minutes ago, rafalgorka said:

And how about Vollering in the time trial?

I think it will depend on the race calendar for her just like on the mens side, if there is a Tour de France femmes before the Games that will be her main focus and I wouldn't see her beating the specialists Dygert, Brown, Van Dijk or Reusser. But who know, she has been grown really strong this year and the last.

[dodge 1,024]

I think Tarling wins gold in the men’s TT. Ganna silver and Remco bronze. 
 

I think Reusser wins gold in the women’s. Dygart silver and one of the Dutch women wins bronze