Paris 2024 - Early Predictions - Day by Day

[Josh 13,625]

Day 4 (July 30, 2024)

 

Artistic Gymnastics- Women’s Team

Gold-  United States

Silver-  Brazil

Bronze-  China

 

 fourth. 

 

Fencing- Women’s Epee Team

Gold-  Italy 

Silver-  Poland

Bronze-  South Korea

 

Judo- Women’s -63kg

Gold-  Clarisse Agbegnenou

Silver-  Megumi Horikawa

Bronze-  Lucy Renshall

Bronze-  Andreja Leški

Sharir and Piovesana place fifth, losing their bronze medal bouts. 
 

Judo- Men’s -73kg

Gold-  Tato Grigalashvili

Silver-  Mathias Casse

Bronze-  Takanori Nagase

Bronze-  Saeid Mollaei

 

Rugby Sevens- Women’s Tournament

Gold-  New Zealand

Silver-  Australia

Bronze-  United States

 

Shooting- Mixed Team 10m Air Rifle

Gold-  China

Silver-  South Korea

Bronze-  United States

 

Shooting- Men’s Trap

Gold-  Giovanni Cernogoraz

Silver-  Jirí Lipták

Bronze-  Derek Mein

 

Surfing- Men’s Shortboard

Gold-  Gabriel Medina (or maybe that’s what I’m hoping for haha)

Silver-  John John Florence (aka. the GOAT)

Bronze-  Filipe Toledo

 

Brazil still needs to win the team event at the 2023 ISA Surf Games though. 
 

Surfing- Women’s Shortboard

Gold-  Carissa Moore

Silver-  Vahine Fierro (home break, and placed 3rd at the 2023 WSL Tahiti Pro)

Bronze-  Molly Picklum

 

Swimming- Women’s 100m Backstroke

Gold-  Kaylee McKeown

Silver-  Regan Smith

Bronze-  Katharine Berkoff

 

Swimming- Men’s 800m Freestyle

Gold-  Ahmed Hafnaoui

Silver-  Sam Short

Bronze-  Gregorio Paltrinieri

 

Swimming- Men’s 4x200m Freestyle Relay

Gold-  Great Britain

Silver-  United States

Bronze-  South Korea

 

 just off the podium in 4th. 

 

Table Tennis- Mixed Doubles 

Gold-  China

Silver-  Japan

Bronze-  South Korea

 

Triathlon- Men’s Individual

Gold-  Alex Yee

Silver-  Léo Bergére

Bronze-  Vasco Vilaça

 

 Hayden Wilde finishes in fourth. 

 

Medal Table After Day 4

 10-2-3– 15

 6-11-10– 27

 5-5-3– 13

 4-6-3– 13

 4-3-5– 12

 4-3-4– 11

 4-3-3– 10

 4-0-2– 6

 3-2-1– 6

 2-2-7– 11

 2-1-2– 5

 2-1-0– 3

 2-0-0– 2

 1-2-1– 4

 1-1-2– 4

 1-1-0– 2

 1-1-0– 2

 1-0-0– 1

 1-0-0– 1

 1-0-0– 1

 0-2-0– 2

 0-1-2– 3

 0-1-2– 3

 0-1-1– 2

 0-1-1– 2

 0-1-1– 2

 0-1-1– 2

 0-1-0– 1

 0-1-0– 1

 0-1-0– 1

 0-1-0– 1

 0-1-0– 1

 0-0-2– 2

 0-0-1– 1

 0-0-1– 1

 0-0-1– 1

 0-0-1– 1

 0-0-1– 1

 0-0-1– 1

 0-0-1– 1

 0-0-1– 1

 0-0-1– 1

 0-0-1– 1

 0-0-1– 1

Edited October 15, 2023 by Josh

[Josh 13,625]

Day 5 (July 31, 2024)

 

Artistic Gymnastics- Men’s Individual All-Around

Gold-  Daiki Hashimoto

Silver-  Zhang Boheng

Bronze-  Illia Kovtun

 

Cycling- Men’s BMX Freestyle

Gold-  Anthony Jeanjean

Silver-  Logan Martin

Bronze-  Rimu Nakamura

 

 Declan Brooks finishes less than a point back of bronze in fourth, followed by  Justin Dowell in fifth, reigning World Champion  Kieran Reilly in sixth, and  Marin Rantes in seventh. 

 

Cycling- Women’s BMX Freestyle

Gold-  Hannah Roberts

Silver-  Nikita Ducarroz

Bronze-  Iveta Miculycova

 

Canoe Slalom- Women’s C1

Gold-  Elena Lilik

Silver-  Jessica Fox

Bronze-  Mallory Franklin

 

Diving- Women’s 10m Synchro Platform

Gold-  Chen Yuxi/Quan Hongchan

Silver-  Andrea Spendolini-Sirieix/Lois Toulson

Bronze-  Gabriela Agundez/Alejandra Orozco

 

Fencing- Men’s Team Sabre

Gold-  Hungary

Silver-  South Korea

Bronze-  Italy

 

Judo- Women’s -70kg

Gold-  Saki Niizoe

Silver-  Barbara Matić

Bronze- Sanne van Dijke

Bronze-  Elisavet Teltsidou

 

Judo- Men’s -90kg

Gold-  Lasha Bekauri

Silver-  Davlat Bobonov

Bronze-  Kristian Toth

Bronze-  Iván Felipe Silva Morales

 

Shooting- Women’s Trap

Gold-  Fatima Galvez 

Silver-  Alessandra Perlii

Bronze-  Zuzana Rehák-Štefčeková

 

Swimming- Women’s 100m Freestyle

Gold-  Mollie O’Callaghan

Silver-  Siobhan Haughey

Bronze-  Emma McKeon

 

Swimming- Men’s 200m Butterfly

Gold-  Kristof Milak
Silver-  Leon Marchand

Bronze-  Thomas Heilman

 

 Tomoru Honda finishes in fourth. 

 

Swimming- Men’s 200m Breastroke

Gold-  Qin Haiyang

Silver-  Zac Stubbelty Cook

Bronze-  Arno Kammiga

 

Swimming- Women’s 1500m Freestyle

Gold-  Katie Ledecky

Silver-  Li Bingje

Bronze-  Simona Quadarella

 

Swimming- Men’s 100m Freestyle

Gold-  David Popovici

Silver- Caleb Dressel

Bronze-  Kyle Chalmers

 

Triathlon- Women’s Individual

Gold-  Beth Potter

Silver-  Flora Duffy

Bronze-  Cassandre Beaugrand

 

Rowing- Men’s Quadruple Sculls

Gold-  Netherlands

Silver-  Poland

Bronze-  Australia

 

Rowing- Women’s Quadruple Sculls

Gold-  Netherlands

Silver-  China

Bronze-  Great Britain

 

Medal Table After Day 5

 12-5-3– 20

 8-12-11– 31

 7-5-4– 16

 5-9-6– 20

 5-4-7– 16

 5-4-5– 14

 4-3-5– 12

 4-2-1– 7

 4-0-2– 6

 4-0-1– 5

 2-3-7– 12

 2-1-4– 7

 2-1-2– 5

 2-1-2– 5

 2-1-0– 3

 1-3-1– 5

 1-1-1– 3

 1-1-0– 2

 1-1-0– 2

 1-1-0– 2

 1-1-0– 2

 1-0-1– 2

 1-0-0– 1

 0-2-1– 3

 0-2-0– 2

 0-1-3– 4

 0-1-2– 3

 0-1-2– 3

 0-1-1– 2

 0-1-1– 2

 0-1-0– 1

 0-1-0– 1

 0-1-0– 1

 0-1-0– 1

 0-1-0– 1

 0-1-0– 1

 0-0-2– 2

 0-0-1– 1

 0-0-1– 1

 0-0-1– 1

 0-0-1– 1

 0-0-1– 1

 0-0-1– 1

 0-0-1– 1

 0-0-1– 1

 0-0-1– 1

 0-0-1– 1

0-0-1– 1

Edited October 15, 2023 by Josh

[rafalgorka 1,821]

Maybe someone else would like to join this thread?

 

we could add all the predictions together (e.g. 3 pts for every gold medal pick for a certain athlete, then 2 pts and 1 pt) 

 

I would like to see the outcome of it

 

I know it is too early, that is just for fun, and this week not much is going on in sports world

Edited October 11, 2023 by rafalgorka

[rafalgorka 1,821]

Day 5 Wed 31.07

 

60. ARTISTIC GYMNASTICS - M Individual All-Around

 

1. Zhang Boheng CHN

2. Daiki Hashimoto JPN

3. Illia Kovtun UKR

 

Asian Games champion beating Champion of the World this time.

 

61. BMX CYCLING - M Freestyle

 

1. Kieran Reilly GBR

2. Logan Martin AUS

3. Nick Bruce USA

 

Another gold for reigning WCH in Paris.

 

62. BMX CYCLING - W Freestyle

 

1. Hannah Roberts USA

2. Sun Sibei CHN

3. Nikita Ducarroz SUI

 

USA chasing China in the medal table.

 

63. CANOE SLALOM - W C1

 

1. Mallory Franklin GBR

2. Jessica Fox AUS

3. Monica Doria Villarubla AND

 

A first ever olympic medal for Andorra!!! Franklin winning gold after great internal battle vs Kimberley Woods.

 

64. DIVING - W Synchro 10m Platform

 

1. China

2. Great Britain

3. United States

 

3rd gold for China in synchro diving.

 

65. FENCING - M Sabre Team

 

1. United States

2. Korea Rep.

3. Hungary

 

Young Colin Heathcock doing miracles both in semifinal and final, pushing US Team for a bit surprosing gold medal.

 

66. JUDO - W -70kg

 

1. Saki Nizoe JPN

2. Sanne van Dijke NED

3. Barbara Matic CRO

3. Michaela Polleres AUT

 

And another judo gold for Japan.

 

67. JUDO - M -90kg

 

1. Luka Maisuradze GEO

2. Sanshiro Murao JPN

3. Ivan Felipe Silva Morales CUB

3. Christian Parlati ITA

 

Like Canadians in W -57kg... When Maisuaradze wins the internal competition against Bekauri, winning olympic gold is a bit easier for him.

 

68. ROWING - M Quadruple Sculls

 

1. Netherlands

2. Italy

3. Poland

 

First Dutch gold in Paris. And a very nice bronze for Poland.

 

69. ROWING - W Quadruple Sculls

 

1. China

2. Great Britain

3. Netherlands

 

Poland got silver in Tokyo in this event. But sadly didn't qualified this time .

 

70. SHOOTING - W Trap

 

1. Jessica Rossi ITA

2. Fatima Galvez ESP

3. Zuzana Rehak-Stefecekova SVK

 

Lin Yi-chun TPE 4th.

 

71. SWIMMING - W 100m Free

 

1. Mollie O'Callaghan AUS

2. Siobhan Haughey HKG

3. Sarah Sjoestroem SWE

 

O'Callaghan and Haughey both under 52 secs.

 

72. SWIMMING - M 200m Fly

 

1. Leon Marchand FRA

2. Krisztof Milak HUN

3. Krzysztof Chmielewski POL

 

One of the best races of the games. Milak back in decent form but Marchand somehow beats him on last meters. And a first swimming medal for Poland since Otylia show in 2004.

 

73. SWIMMING - M 200m Breast

 

1. Qin Haiyang CHN

2. Zac Stubblety-Cook AUS

3. Dong Zhihao CHN

 

Qin Haiyang completes breaststroke double.

 

74. SWIMMING - W 1500m Free

 

1. Katie Ledecky USA

2. Simona Quadarella ITA

3. Li Bingjie CHN

 

75. SWIMMING - M 100m Free

 

1. Kyle Chalmers AUS

2. Pan Zhanle CHN

3. David Popovici ROU

 

Chalmers by 0,02 sec because... why not???

 

76. TRIATHLON - W Individual

 

1. Cassandre Beauregard FRA

2. Beth Potter GBR

3. Taylor Spivey USA

 

French athlete winning gold in an event which people can watch even without tickets. Despite early hours, huge crowds celebrating this one.

Edited October 11, 2023 by rafalgorka

[rafalgorka 1,821]

My medal table after Day 5 (76 events)

 

13-5-6---24

8-13-10---31

8-6-6---20

8-2-3---13

7-5-7---19

5-6-3---14
4-8-4---16

3-0-0---3

2-3-4---9

2-2-1---5

2-1-2---5

2-0-0---2

1-3-2---6

1-3-2---6

1-1-2---4

1-1-1---3

1-1-1---3

1-1-0---2

1-0-3---4

1-0-2---3

1-0-1---2

1-0-1---2

1-0-0---1

1-0-0---1

0-2-2---4

0-2-1---3

0-2-0---2

0-2-0---2

0-2-0---2

0-1-2---3

0-1-2---3

0-1-2---3

0-1-0---1

0-1-0---1

0-1-0---1

0-0-2---2

0-0-2---2

0-0-2---2

0-0-2---2

0-0-1---1

0-0-1---1

0-0-1---1

0-0-1---1

0-0-1---1

0-0-1---1

0-0-1---1

0-0-1---1

Edited October 11, 2023 by rafalgorka

[rafalgorka 1,821]

Early thoughts on medal table after Day 5:

 

CHN well ahead of USA - but maybe I am too optimistic for China and not enough optimistic for USA.

CHN wins here majority of events when they are gold medal favs (diving synchro M 10m platform may be an exception) but in Asian Games they sometimes (rarely but still) lost some almost certain gold medals... Schedule for first days is in China's favour imo though. USA should come closer later on.

And I think there may be more gold medals for USA in swimming than I predicted. It's hard to imagine that they won't improve from 2023 WCH results.

 

So far great olympics for AUS. Lots of gold medals but here it may go other way - will they be able to perform so strong in the pool like in 2023 WCH???

 

FRA are having a good time. Hosts usually go better than usual so I think there is really a big a chance for at least one gold medal for them daily.

 

Team GB very impressive. They will have many supporters in Paris, such a short trip for them.

 

JPN get gold only in judo so far but maybe I missed sth here.

 

Fantastic games for GEO but... why not? I haven't picked any surprise gold for them.

I don't pick many surprise gold at all, I know. And I favour current WCH way tooooo much, I know.

But firstly, those are early thoughts and I don't have much time for serious research.

And secondly, I don't know much about many sports (surfing, BMX cycling, judo, archery, shooting, fencing and many others) so I follow the WCH results and ranking lists because what else can I do?

 

Only one gold on Day 5 for GER is a big surprise for me. I don't think it will be that bad for them. I should check back once again on the events when they have medal contenders, probably I missed sth...

 

FIJ gold in rugby is a bit wishful thinking for me... But why not, that would be 3 in-a-row.

 

0-2-2 for Poland is a lot I think. Still no gold but that would be a really nice result. Maybe i am biased here but still I haven't predicted a medal in shooting which is possible (Mixed 10m Air Rifle, W Air Pistol) and I haven't predicted any Polish medal which would be a massive surprise and we ALWAYS have at least one totally surprising summer olympic medal (M 50km race walk in Tokyo, anyone???). So hopefully we will get 4.

 

From those 4 swimming medal would be the best fun for me because... you know, that's swimming. And our guy would be there on all the photos from this Marchand vs Milak battle...

 

And Poland in a good mood so far because M volleyball team and Iga Świątek in W singles are winning their matches comfortably so far...

 

Some NOCs without a medal so far: NOR DEN BUL IRL PHI EGY LAT EST FIN - but no worries, your time will come.

 

Although... FIN, well... ??? :-((( but we will find sth...

 

Enjoy, stay tuned!

 

 

 

 

Edited October 11, 2023 by rafalgorka

[rafalgorka 1,821]

Day 6 Thu 01.08

 

77. ARTISTIC GYMNASTICS - W Individual All-Around

78. ATHLETICS - M 20km Race Walk

79. ATHLETICS - W 20km Race Walk

80. CANOE SLALOM - M K1

81. FENCING - W Foil Team

82. JUDO - W -78kg

83. JUDO - M -100kg

84. ROWING - W Double Sculls

85. ROWING - M Double Sculls

86. ROWING - W Four

87. ROWING - M Four

88. SAILING - W Skiff 49erFX

89. SAILING - M Skiff 49er

90. SHOOTING - M 50m Rifle 3 Positions

91. SWIMMING - W 200m Fly

92. SWIMMING - M 200m Back

93. SWIMMING - W 200m Breast

94. SWIMMING - W 4x200m Free Relay

 

[Jinzha 703]

1 hour ago, rafalgorka said:

Day 6 Thu 01.08

 

77. ARTISTIC GYMNASTICS - W Individual All-Around

78. ATHLETICS - M 20km Race Walk

79. ATHLETICS - W 20km Race Walk

80. CANOE SLALOM - M K1

81. FENCING - W Foil Team

82. JUDO - W -78kg

83. JUDO - M -100kg

84. ROWING - W Double Sculls

85. ROWING - M Double Sculls

86. ROWING - W Four

87. ROWING - M Four

88. SAILING - W Skiff 49erFX

89. SAILING - M Skiff 49er

90. SHOOTING - M 50m Rifle 3 Positions

91. SWIMMING - W 200m Fly

92. SWIMMING - M 200m Back

93. SWIMMING - W 200m Breast

94. SWIMMING - W 4x200m Free Relay

 

Day 6 could be a really great day for the !

We've got at least seven medal contenders in Rowing (M2x and W4-), Sailing (M+W Skiff), Judo (Guusje Steenhuis and Michael Korrel) and Swimming (Tes Schouten in W 200m breast).

[rafalgorka 1,821]

@Jinzha good for you!!! 

and what are the biggest Dutch medal chances on days 1-5???

[Josh 13,625]

Women’s singles (tennis) at the Olympics always produces surprise medalists, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Swiatek off the podium next year.

Edited October 11, 2023 by Josh