OlympicsFan 783 Posted April 28, 2020 #201 Share Posted April 28, 2020 11 hours ago, rafalgorka said: Day 13 Thursday ATHLETICS – Men Triple Jump 1. USA Christian Taylor 2. USA Will Claye 3. POR Pedro Pablo Pichardo ATHLETICS – Men Shot Put NZL Tomas Walsh USA Joe Kovacs USA Ryan Crouser ATHLETICS – Men 110m Hurdles USA Grant Holloway ESP Orlando Ortega RUS Sergey Shubenkov ATHLETICS – Men 20km Race Walk JPN Toshikazu Yamanishi SWE Perseus Karlstrom RUS Vasiliy Mizinov ATHLETICS – Women Pole Vault RUS Anzhelika Sidorova USA Sandi Morris GRE Katerina Stefanidi ATHLETICS – Men 400m BAH Steven Gardiner USA Fred Kerley COL Anthony Zambrano ATHLETICS – Women Heptathlon GBR Katarina Johnson-Thompson BEL Nafissatou Thiam AUT Verena Preiner ATHLETICS – Men Decathlon CAN Damian Warner GER Niklaus Kaul EST Maicel Uibo BOXING – Men Feather (52-57kg) UZB Mirazizbek Mirzakhalilov GBR Peter McGrail CUB Lazaro Alvarez UKR Mykola Butsenko CANOE SPRINT – Men Kayak Single 200m GBR Liam Heath SRB Strahinja Stefanovic FRA Maxime Beaumont CANOE SPRINT – Women Canoe Single 200m CAN Katie Vincent USA Nevin Harrison RUS Olesia Romasenko CANOE SPRINT – Women Kayak Single 500m NZL Lisa Carrington DEN Emma Jorgensen BLR Volha Khudzenka CANOE SPRINT – Men Kayak Double 1000m GER Max Hoff, Jacob Schopf ESP Francisco Cubelos, Inigo Pena AUS Jordan Wood, Riley Fitzsimmons CYCLING TRACK – Women Keirin GER Emma Hinze KOR Lee Hye-Jin HKG Lee Wai Sze CYCLING TRACK – Men Omnium FRA Benjamin Thomas NED Jan Willem van Schip NZL Campbell Stewart DIVING – Women 10m Platform CHN Chen Yuxi AUS Melissa Wu CHN Lu Wei HOCKEY – Men BELGIUM AUSTRALIA NETHERLANDS KARATE – Women Kata ESP Sandra Sanchez JPN Kiyou Shimizu HKG Grace Lau ITA Viviana Bottaro KARATE – Men Kumite -67kg FRA Steven Da Costa KAZ Darkhan Assadilov BRA Vinicius Figueira ITA Angelo Crescenzo KARATE – Women Kumite -55kg TUR Serap Ozcelik POL Dorota Banaszczyk UKR Anzhelika Terliuga GER Jana Messerchmidt MARATHON SWIMMING – Men 10km GER Florian Wellbrock FRA Marc-Antoine Olivier GER Rob Muffels SKATEBOARDING – Men Park USA Heimana Reynolds BRA Luiz Francisco USA Cory Juneau SPORT CLIMBING – Men Combined JPN Tomoa Narasaki AUT Jakob Schubert CZE Adam Ondra TABLE TENNIS – Women Team CHINA JAPAN HONG KONG WRESTLING – Men Freestyle 57kg RUS Zaur Uguev TUR Suleyman Atli IND Ravi Kumar Dahiya SRB Stevan Andria Micic WRESTLING – Men Freestyle 86kg IRI Hassan Yazdani IND Deepak Punia RUS Artur Naifonov SUI Stefan Reichmuth WRESTLING – Women Freestyle 57kg JPN Risako Kawai NGR Odunayo Adekuoroye CHN Rong Ningning BLR Iryna Kurachkina Some interesting predictions in athletics ... I am very certain that none out of Zambrano, Uibo and Preiner will win a medal. Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LDOG 2,199 Posted April 28, 2020 #202 Share Posted April 28, 2020 hace 11 horas, rafalgorka dijo: 23. ITALY 2-16-12 30 hckošice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OlympicsFan 783 Posted April 28, 2020 #203 Share Posted April 28, 2020 57 minutes ago, LDOG said: Could Italy become the new Canada (concerning percentage of gold medals)? I just looked it up if that would be some record, but apparently it wouldn‘t. Azerbaijan won 18 medals in 2016, but only 1 of them in gold. Still not as bad as Germany in 1952 with 24 medals in total and none of them in gold, which is the record for most medals without a single gold medal. Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LDOG 2,199 Posted April 28, 2020 #204 Share Posted April 28, 2020 hace 1 hora, OlympicsFan dijo: Could Italy become the new Canada (concerning percentage of gold medals)? I just looked it up if that would be some record, but apparently it wouldn‘t. Azerbaijan won 18 medals in 2016, but only 1 of them in gold. Still not as bad as Germany in 1952 with 24 medals in total and none of them in gold, which is the record for most medals without a single gold medal. All those cases you mention still had more bronzes than silvers though, this would be an absurd disproportion of gold to silver ratio (among high medaling nations, of course). 99% it won't happen. I mean losing 16 out of 18 finals? Also I checked and he gave them 0 golds in shotgun (5 events) and fencing (12 events)... yes, that is not realistic. Giovanni Gianni Cattaneo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rafalgorka 1,394 Posted April 29, 2020 Author #205 Share Posted April 29, 2020 2019 fencing world championships Italy 0 Golds 1 Silver 7 Bronzes Yes, they lost 7 semis out of 8. 99 % it should not have happened. But it did. 2019 shotgun world championships In olympic events: Italy 1 Gold for Diana Bacosi in skeet 2 Silver 0 Bronze Yes, There are So many events in this sport, FIVE, So it is very realistic for Italy to miss a gold medal here. Even if I underestimated Bacosi and she is a strong contender for gold over Chinese shooter, I am afraid I like Pellegrini too much, I may not be objective here and it will be very hard for her to win 200 Freestyle. So it is still two. And even if it will eventually be not two But four or six, I just want to point out that IMO Italy doesn't have many sportsmen Who could be considered as main favourites and easy bets in their disciplines right now. Which is sad obviously. The same with SPAIN. Which makes me even more sad. And Argentina. And Poland :-) And 2-16 is odd, I agree, but maybe I was too optimistic for their chances for Silver medals, Who knows? :-) And finally, relax guys, this is just for fun, a kind of first draft, when I reach day 16, I will certainly look at this again, listen carefully to your comments and advices and maybe there will be significant changes in the medal table. And to make everybody happy, I strongly recommend reading this article, I love it very much and it makes me smile every time I see Team Canada and Team Australia in the games. 105-metres-in-a-slightly-colder-water :-))))) . So relax and Be positive! And Orange slices for everyone! :-) https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2016/jul/27/canada-summer-olympics-lack-of-medals-reasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LDOG 2,199 Posted April 29, 2020 #206 Share Posted April 29, 2020 hace 1 hora, rafalgorka dijo: And even if it will eventually be not two But four or six, I just want to point out that IMO Italy doesn't have many sportsmen Who could be considered as main favourites and easy bets in their disciplines right now. Which is sad obviously. Fine, but you made them lose almost every 50/50 or 60/40 against as well Anyway, it's your prediction. rafalgorka 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OlympicsFan 783 Posted April 29, 2020 #207 Share Posted April 29, 2020 13 hours ago, LDOG said: All those cases you mention still had more bronzes than silvers though, this would be an absurd disproportion of gold to silver ratio (among high medaling nations, of course). 99% it won't happen. I mean losing 16 out of 18 finals? Also I checked and he gave them 0 golds in shotgun (5 events) and fencing (12 events)... yes, that is not realistic. 1) Just because you win far more silver than gold doesn't mean that you got unlucky. In many sports you can win silver without losing a final. In fact only 7 out of the 16 silver medals came in sports where there is a 1 vs. 1 final (taekwondo, judo, fencing, track cycling). Of course you could say that losing 7 out of 7 1 vs. 1 finals is extremely unlikely, but you can't really say much about the actual likelihood of that happening, not every 1 vs. 1 final is 50/50, normally there is one favorite. At the same time you could also say that maybe all those athletes actually were pretty lucky to even reach the final. It doesn't make much sense (in my opinion) to say "Italy should have a better percentage of gold medals, so i am gonna predict a gold medal for them in an event where i actually don't expect them to win gold", instead you should look at all events separately and just ask yourself whether they are more likely than not to win gold in those events. 2) I agree that Italy not winning a single gold medal in fencing and shooting combined is very unlikely. I would expect them to win 3-4 golds in those 2 sports. 3) In his prediction Italy won 8 silver medals for every gold medal, Azerbaijan in 2016 won 7 silver medals and only 1 gold. 6 out of those 7 silver medals came in sports with 1 vs. 1 finals (wrestling, judo, boxing). Edit: About 1) If we assume that all the finals with italian athletes are 60/40 in favor of their opponents, then the probability of Italy losing all those finals would be around 3 %. If we assume that all the finals with italian athletes are 70/30 in favor of their opponents, then the probability of Italy losing all those finals would be around 8 %. If we assume that all the finals with italian athletes are 80/20 in favor of their opponents, then the probability of Italy losing all those finals would be around 21 %. If we assume that all the finals with italian athletes are 90/10 in favor of their opponents, then the probability of Italy losing all those finals would be around 48 %. Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OlympicsFan 783 Posted April 29, 2020 #208 Share Posted April 29, 2020 9 hours ago, LDOG said: Fine, but you made them lose almost every 50/50 or 60/40 against as well Anyway, it's your prediction. Just because for example Manuel Lombardo only won silver doesn't mean that he got unlucky. You could also say that he got lucky to even reach the final. In general i would say that there are not many events where you could say that there is a certain athlete X who would have to get unlucky to "only" win silver, especially in fighting sports. Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heywoodu 13,573 Posted April 29, 2020 #209 Share Posted April 29, 2020 9 hours ago, LDOG said: Fine, but you made them lose almost every 50/50 or 60/40 against as well Right there, the exact problem of trying to come up with a predicted medal table based on only awarding 1st, 2nd and 3rd places If you'd like to help our fellow Totallympics member Bruna Moura get to the 2026 Winter Olympics, after her car crash on the way to the 2022 Olympics, every tiny bit of help would be greatly appreciated! Full story and how to help can be found here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MHSN 3,231 Posted April 29, 2020 #210 Share Posted April 29, 2020 7 hours ago, heywoodu said: Right there, the exact problem of trying to come up with a predicted medal table based on only awarding 1st, 2nd and 3rd places I remember you prepared a table based on percentage for Rio 2016. unfortunately I can't remember the details, but I think my/our predictions about wrestling (specially freestyle) was not far from what actually happened. did you ever compared it to the final medal table ?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now