Tokyo 2020 Day after Day as it could have happened

[OlympicsFan 860]

11 hours ago, rafalgorka said:

Day 13 Thursday

 

1. ATHLETICS – Men Triple Jump

1.         USA    Christian Taylor

2.         USA    Will Claye

3.         POR    Pedro Pablo Pichardo

2. ATHLETICS – Men Shot Put

1. NZL          Tomas Walsh
2. USA         Joe Kovacs
3. USA         Ryan Crouser
3. ATHLETICS – Men 110m Hurdles

1. USA         Grant Holloway
2. ESP           Orlando Ortega
3. RUS          Sergey Shubenkov
4. ATHLETICS – Men 20km Race Walk

1. JPN           Toshikazu Yamanishi
2. SWE         Perseus Karlstrom
3. RUS          Vasiliy Mizinov
5. ATHLETICS – Women Pole Vault

1. RUS          Anzhelika Sidorova
2. USA          Sandi Morris
3. GRE          Katerina Stefanidi
6. ATHLETICS – Men 400m

1. BAH         Steven Gardiner
2. USA         Fred Kerley
3. COL         Anthony Zambrano
7. ATHLETICS – Women Heptathlon

1. GBR         Katarina Johnson-Thompson
2. BEL          Nafissatou Thiam
3. AUT         Verena Preiner
8. ATHLETICS – Men Decathlon

1. CAN         Damian Warner
2. GER         Niklaus Kaul
3. EST           Maicel Uibo
9. BOXING – Men Feather (52-57kg)

1. UZB         Mirazizbek Mirzakhalilov
2. GBR         Peter McGrail
3. CUB         Lazaro Alvarez

UKR         Mykola Butsenko

10. CANOE SPRINT – Men Kayak Single 200m

1. GBR         Liam Heath
2. SRB          Strahinja Stefanovic
3. FRA          Maxime Beaumont
11. CANOE SPRINT – Women Canoe Single 200m

1. CAN         Katie Vincent
2. USA         Nevin Harrison
3. RUS          Olesia Romasenko
12. CANOE SPRINT – Women Kayak Single 500m

1. NZL          Lisa Carrington
2. DEN         Emma Jorgensen
3. BLR          Volha Khudzenka
13. CANOE SPRINT – Men Kayak Double 1000m

1. GER         Max Hoff, Jacob Schopf
2. ESP           Francisco Cubelos, Inigo Pena
3. AUS         Jordan Wood, Riley Fitzsimmons
14. CYCLING TRACK – Women Keirin

1. GER         Emma Hinze
2. KOR         Lee Hye-Jin
3. HKG         Lee Wai Sze
15. CYCLING TRACK – Men Omnium

1. FRA          Benjamin Thomas
2. NED         Jan Willem van Schip
3. NZL          Campbell Stewart
16. DIVING – Women 10m Platform

1. CHN         Chen Yuxi
2. AUS         Melissa Wu
3. CHN         Lu Wei
17. HOCKEY – Men

1. BELGIUM
2. AUSTRALIA
3. NETHERLANDS
18. KARATE – Women Kata

1. ESP           Sandra Sanchez
2. JPN           Kiyou Shimizu
3. HKG         Grace Lau

ITA           Viviana Bottaro

19. KARATE – Men Kumite -67kg

1. FRA          Steven Da Costa
2. KAZ         Darkhan Assadilov
3. BRA         Vinicius Figueira

ITA           Angelo Crescenzo

20. KARATE – Women Kumite -55kg

1. TUR          Serap Ozcelik
2. POL         Dorota Banaszczyk
3. UKR         Anzhelika Terliuga

GER         Jana Messerchmidt

21. MARATHON SWIMMING – Men 10km

1. GER         Florian Wellbrock
2. FRA          Marc-Antoine Olivier
3. GER         Rob Muffels
22. SKATEBOARDING – Men Park

1. USA         Heimana Reynolds
2. BRA         Luiz Francisco
3. USA         Cory Juneau
23. SPORT CLIMBING – Men Combined

1. JPN           Tomoa Narasaki
2. AUT         Jakob Schubert
3. CZE          Adam Ondra
24. TABLE TENNIS – Women Team

1. CHINA
2. JAPAN
3. HONG KONG
25. WRESTLING – Men Freestyle 57kg

1. RUS          Zaur Uguev
2. TUR          Suleyman Atli
3. IND          Ravi Kumar Dahiya

SRB          Stevan Andria Micic

26. WRESTLING – Men Freestyle 86kg

1. IRI            Hassan Yazdani
2. IND          Deepak Punia
3. RUS          Artur Naifonov

SUI           Stefan Reichmuth

27. WRESTLING – Women Freestyle 57kg

1. JPN           Risako Kawai
2. NGR         Odunayo Adekuoroye
3. CHN         Rong Ningning

BLR          Iryna Kurachkina

 

Some interesting predictions in athletics ...

I am very certain that none out of Zambrano, Uibo and Preiner will win a medal.

[LDOG 2,489]

hace 11 horas, rafalgorka dijo:

23. ITALY                                    2-16-12                 30

 

[OlympicsFan 860]

57 minutes ago, LDOG said:

 

Could Italy become the new Canada (concerning percentage of gold medals)?

I just looked it up if that would be some record, but apparently it wouldn‘t. Azerbaijan won 18 medals in 2016, but only 1 of them in gold. Still not as bad as Germany in 1952 with 24 medals in total and none of them in gold, which is the record for most medals without a single gold medal.

[LDOG 2,489]

hace 1 hora, OlympicsFan dijo:

Could Italy become the new Canada (concerning percentage of gold medals)?

I just looked it up if that would be some record, but apparently it wouldn‘t. Azerbaijan won 18 medals in 2016, but only 1 of them in gold. Still not as bad as Germany in 1952 with 24 medals in total and none of them in gold, which is the record for most medals without a single gold medal.

 

All those cases you mention still had more bronzes than silvers though, this would be an absurd disproportion of gold to silver ratio (among high medaling nations, of course). 

 

99% it won't happen. I mean losing 16 out of 18 finals?  

 

Also I checked and he gave them 0 golds in shotgun (5 events) and fencing (12 events)... yes, that is not realistic.

[rafalgorka 1,821]

2019 fencing world championships 

Italy 0 Golds 1 Silver 7 Bronzes

Yes, they lost 7 semis out of 8.

 

99 % it should not have happened. But it did. 

 

2019 shotgun world championships

In olympic events:

Italy 1 Gold for Diana Bacosi in skeet 

2 Silver 0 Bronze 

Yes, There are So many events in this sport, FIVE, So it is very realistic for Italy to miss a gold medal here. 

 

Even if I underestimated Bacosi and she is a strong contender for gold over Chinese shooter, I am afraid I like Pellegrini too much, I may not be objective here and it will be very hard for her to win 200 Freestyle. 

 

So it is still two. 

 

And even if it will eventually be not two But four or six, I just want to point out that IMO Italy doesn't have many sportsmen Who could be considered as main favourites and easy bets in their disciplines right now.

Which is sad obviously. 

 

The same with SPAIN. Which makes me even more sad.

 

And Argentina. 

 

And Poland :-) 

 

And 2-16 is odd, I agree, but maybe I was too optimistic for their chances for Silver medals, Who knows? :-) 

 

And finally, relax guys, this is just for fun, a kind of first draft, when I reach day 16, I will certainly look at this again, listen carefully to your comments and advices and maybe there will be significant changes in the medal table. 

 

And to make everybody happy, I strongly recommend reading this article, I love it very much and it makes me smile every time I see Team Canada and Team Australia in the games. 105-metres-in-a-slightly-colder-water :-))))) . So relax and Be positive! And Orange slices for everyone! :-) 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2016/jul/27/canada-summer-olympics-lack-of-medals-reasons

 

 

 

[LDOG 2,489]

hace 1 hora, rafalgorka dijo:

And even if it will eventually be not two But four or six, I just want to point out that IMO Italy doesn't have many sportsmen Who could be considered as main favourites and easy bets in their disciplines right now.

Which is sad obviously. 

 

Fine, but you made them lose almost every 50/50 or 60/40 against as well 

 

Anyway, it's your prediction.

[OlympicsFan 860]

13 hours ago, LDOG said:

 

All those cases you mention still had more bronzes than silvers though, this would be an absurd disproportion of gold to silver ratio (among high medaling nations, of course). 

 

99% it won't happen. I mean losing 16 out of 18 finals?  

 

Also I checked and he gave them 0 golds in shotgun (5 events) and fencing (12 events)... yes, that is not realistic.

1) Just because you win far more silver than gold doesn't mean that you got unlucky. In many sports you can win silver without losing a final. In fact only 7 out of the 16 silver medals came in sports where there is a 1 vs. 1 final (taekwondo, judo, fencing, track cycling). Of course you could say that losing 7 out of 7 1 vs. 1 finals is extremely unlikely, but you can't really say much about the actual likelihood of that happening, not every 1 vs. 1 final is 50/50, normally there is one favorite. At the same time you could also say that maybe all those athletes actually were pretty lucky to even reach the final. It doesn't make much sense (in my opinion) to say "Italy should have a better percentage of gold medals, so i am gonna predict a gold medal for them in an event where i actually don't expect them to win gold", instead you should look at all events separately and just ask yourself whether they are more likely than not to win gold in those events.

2) I agree that Italy not winning a single gold medal in fencing and shooting combined is very unlikely. I would expect them to win 3-4 golds in those 2 sports.

3) In his prediction Italy won 8 silver medals for every gold medal, Azerbaijan in 2016 won 7 silver medals and only 1 gold. 6 out of those 7 silver medals came in sports with 1 vs. 1 finals (wrestling, judo, boxing).

 

Edit: About 1)

If we assume that all the finals with italian athletes are 60/40 in favor of their opponents, then the probability of Italy losing all those finals would be around 3 %.

If we assume that all the finals with italian athletes are 70/30 in favor of their opponents, then the probability of Italy losing all those finals would be around 8 %.

If we assume that all the finals with italian athletes are 80/20 in favor of their opponents, then the probability of Italy losing all those finals would be around 21 %.

If we assume that all the finals with italian athletes are 90/10 in favor of their opponents, then the probability of Italy losing all those finals would be around 48 %.

[OlympicsFan 860]

9 hours ago, LDOG said:

 

Fine, but you made them lose almost every 50/50 or 60/40 against as well 

 

Anyway, it's your prediction.

Just because for example Manuel Lombardo only won silver doesn't mean that he got unlucky. You could also say that he got lucky to even reach the final. In general i would say that there are not many events where you could say that there is a certain athlete X who would have to get unlucky to "only" win silver, especially in fighting sports.

[heywoodu 16,468]

9 hours ago, LDOG said:

 

Fine, but you made them lose almost every 50/50 or 60/40 against as well 

 

Right there, the exact problem of trying to come up with a predicted medal table based on only awarding 1st, 2nd and 3rd places  

[MHSN 3,822]

7 hours ago, heywoodu said:

 

Right there, the exact problem of trying to come up with a predicted medal table based on only awarding 1st, 2nd and 3rd places  

 

I remember you prepared a table based on percentage for Rio 2016. unfortunately I can't remember the details, but I think my/our predictions about wrestling (specially freestyle) was not far from what actually happened.

 

did you ever compared it to the final medal table ?!