Boxing at the Asian Games 2022 Road to Paris 2024

[Totallympics 55]

Boxing at the Asian Games 2022

 

Hangzhou (CHN) - 24 September 2023 - 5 October 2023

 

 

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Edited September 20, 2023 by Sindo

[Ogreman 205]

Right prediction time. My hit rate on qualifiers at European Games was 25/44 (56.8%) and at the African Olympic qualifying tournament it was 9/18 (50%- Should have been higher but for some dodgy judging).

 

So again first of all, the usual fun that comes with unseeded draws. (There is a slightly under 50 50 chance that the best two boxers in any weight class in an unseeded draw so close to half of these won't have the best two boxers actually make the final. So just under 25% of the qualifiers where only the finallists qualify are "wrong". (I could figure out the number for the events with 4 qualifiers but the maths gets much more complex) The combination of most of these only offering two qualifying spots and unseeded draws is surprisingly disastrous but sure anyway.)

Starting with the women.

Obviously I have virtually no guage watsoever on the North Korean boxers although historically they do tend to qualify a couple of boxers to the Olympics.

Women's 50kg

Gold- Nikhat Zareen, Silver- Nazym Kyzaibay , Bronze- Wu Yu   ,Tsukimi Namiki , 

Other Olympic calibre boxers-Aira Villegas, Sabina Bobukulova , Thi Tham Nguyen ,Chuthamat Raksat .

Certainly one of the more interesting weight classes. At the top of the draw Nazym Kyzaibay has a relatively straightforward path to the semifinals with only Aira Villegas potentially offering much resitance. Wu Yu is reigning world champion (Obviously take all of this year's world champs results with many grains of salt) at 52kg and starts off against North Korean opposition and then likely faces Sabina Bobukulova who is reigning Asian under 22 champion but has basically no results at senior level yet although her getting selected over Aziza Yokubova indicates she must be at least decent. On the other side of the draw last years Asian silver medallist Tsukimi Namiki fights Chuthamat Raksat in what effectively serves as a qualifying fight given the quality of the boxers they would face in a quarter final. While most of this draw was fairly even last years Asian champion and world silver medalist Thi Tham Nguyen gets a nightmare draw with world champion Nikhat Zareen in the only round of 32 fight in this weight class. Nikhat Zareen got one or two questionable close fights go her way at her home world champs so while she starts as favourite here she is only a marginal one.

 

Womens 54kg

Gold-Zhaina Shekerbekova  ,Silver-Cholmi Pang, Bronze- Hsiao Wen Huang , Nigina Uktamova.

Other Olympic calibre boxers Preeti , Enkhjargal Mungunsetseg , Jutamas Jitpong , Yuan Chang , Rinka Kinoshita .

Zhaina Shekerbekova is reigning Asian champion and has a fairly straightforward path to the semis with just Preeti offering some level of competition. The second bracket of this draw is chaos. If you had told me before the draw that Enkhjargal Mungunsetseg, Hsiao Wen Huang, Jutamas Jitpong and Yuan Chang were the eventual qualifiers I would have believed that as a perfectly reasonable outcome. Hsiao Wen Huang is reigning world champion so starts as favourite for the qualifying spot although she lost to Shekerbekova at last years Asian champs (So did Jitpong). Jitpong has consistently medalled at this level in recent years but just gets a nightmare draw here. I'm not sure why Yuan Chang has moved up from flyweight to bantamweight and not Wu Yu but sure. Chang is a former flyweight world champion so it feels weird to not pick her as a home boxer but. The bottom half of the draw is weaker but not empty Cholmi Pang was world champion back in 2018 at flyweight but hasn't competed since 2019. She faces Tokyo Olympian Im Aeji  in a korean derby followed by likely Thi Ngoc Tran Nguyen . The final qualifier is likely to be Asian under 23 champ Nigina Uktamova although her likely quarter final against Rinka Kinoshita will likely be close. 

 

Women's 57kg

Gold-Karina Ibragimova  ,Silver- Lin Yu ting , Bronze- Xu Zichun , Satsuki Yoshizawa .

Other Olympic calibre boxers- Parveen , Nesthy Petecio .

Xu Zichun has effectively an qualifying fight against Parveen in the last 16. Parveen was a world medallist and Asian champion in 2022 but at 63.5kg so it is a bit strange to see her pop up on the startlist here but she beat out some 2022 world bronze medallist Manisha for this spot so she must have adjusted to the new weight fairly well. One of the more interesting fights is former* world champion Lin Yu Ting (barring eligibilty issues) against Olympic silver medallist Nesthy Petecio. Karina Ibragimova should retain her asian title here and has as straightforward a draw as possible to make the final with only the unknown element of Jinhyang Paek  as a potential stumbling block. Satsuki Yoshizawa does have a win against Olympic champion Sena Irie on her resume but is only really a likely qualifier here based on being on the easy side of the draw.

 

Women's 60kg

Gold- Oh Yeonji  ,Silver- Wenlu Yang, Bronze-Thananya Somnuek , Wu Shihyi .

Other Olympic calibre boxers- Rimma Vollossenko , Ayaka Taguchi , Nominerdene Tugsjargal .

The top of this draw is very weak and effectively sees a quarter final battle between Asian under 23 champion Thananya Somnuek against Rizwa Pasuit  in a fight that could easily go either way. Oh Yeonji has been the dominant force in Asia at lightweight in recent years especially since Sudaporn Seesondee retired. She opens her tournament against Won Ungyong  before a likely quarter final against world bronze medallist Jaismine . Wu Shihyi has a fascinating fight against Rimma Vollossenko in her opening fight in another very even fight on paper. Taguchi and reigning Asian silver medallist Tugsjargal meet in their last 16 fight for the chance to likely face world bronze medallist Wenlu Yang in a hypothethical quarter final. This is one of the weakest weight classes relative to the rest of the world.

 

Women's 66kg (Top 2 to qualify)

Gold- Liu Yang ,Silver- Janjaem Suwannapheng , Bronze- Natalya Bogdonova , Nien Chin Chen .

Other Olympic calibre boxers- Navbakhor Khamidova .

At the top of the draw Natalya Bogdonova has basically no pedigree but Kazakhstan is typically strong at this weightclass and her only competition for a medal is Tsetsegdari Myagmarsuren . The quality in this draw is in the second braket where multiple time world medallist Janjaem Suwannapheng faces reigning Asian Champion (weak field) Navbakhor Khamidova in her last 16 fight. The winner will have an easier quarter final against Mito Kai  or Sujin Seo. Yang Liu is reigning world champion (in somewhat controversial circumstances (Imane Khelif )) faces an intriguing path facing Hyoson Hwang  followed by 2021 youth world champion Arundhati Choudhary  prior to a likely semi final fight against experienced Nien Chin Chen.

 

Women's 75kg (Top 2 to qualify)

Gold- Qian Li ,Silver-Lovlina Borgohain  , Bronze-Baison Manikon , Diem Quynh Luu  .

Other Olympic calibre boxers- Valentina Khalzova .

There are somewhat surprisingly only nine entries here and thankfully the two likely qualifers are on opposite sides of the draw because otherwise there was the potential for a very weird qualifier here. Baison Manikon should medal against Aziza Zokirova  and Erdenatuya Enkhbaatar . Lovlina is world champion albeit with a disproportionate number of the top middleweights being absent due to boycotts. Qian Li is the Olympic silvermedallist and current world bronze medallist*. Valentina Khalzova is a tough draw but one she will likely come through. Unsurprisingly given the lack of entries one of these medals was always going to be weird and here we have a fight between Diem Quynh Luu and Saraswati Rana . Neither of them have a recorded win on boxrec so . While Lovlina did get the decision over Qian Li at world championships, that was a blatant hometown decision and now of course home advantage is reversed so that is not a result I see being repeated here.

 

Edited September 23, 2023 by Ogreman

[PHI2019 188]

The draw sheets have now been updated to the Asian Games website.

 

https://info.hangzhou2022.cn/en/results/boxing/reports.htm

[Ogreman 205]

Predictions Part 2

Top 2 to qualify for the Olympics in all men's weightclasses.

 

Men's 51kg

 

Gold- Hasanboy Dusmatov , Silver- Aaron Jude Babo , Bronze- Tomoya Tsuboi , Azat Makhmetov.

Other Olympic calibre boxers-  Po Wei Tu , Thitisan Panmot , Deepak Bhoria  , Saken Bibibossinov .

 

 

Straight off the bat, we have a ridiculously uneven draw. The top of this bracket sees an opening round fight between Chonryong So  and former (failed) Kazakh Azat Makhmetov in a fight that will probably ultimately decide a bronze medal. The second bracket is fascinatingly poised and with the weakness of the top bracket will likely decide an Olympic place. The first round sees Asian under 22 champions Aaron Jude Babo face Thitisan Panmot in what could prove the deciding fight for an Olympic quota. Po Wei Tu had an impressive run to the quarter finals of this years world championships and likely awaits the winner in the last 16. The winner of that fight will then likely see home boxer Jiamao Zhang  in the quarter final stage.

The best four boxers in this draw are all likely on the bottom half of this draw but that can just be how it goes. Former Bantamweight world champion Tomoya Tsuboi will almost certainly face controversial Indian selection and world bronze medallist Deepak Bhoria (I for one think selecting him over former world champion and commonwealth champion Amit Panghal is perfectly reasonable regardless of the outomce of the Tsuboi fight but I'm sure the Indians here will have something to say about it especially if he loses.). The winner will probably face Nurzhigit Diushebaev  who Deepak beat at the quarter final stage of world championships earlier this year. The ridiculous element of this draw is seeing probably the two top ranked flyweights in the world Saken Bibbosinov and Hasanboy Dusmatov meet in the last 16. Bibbosinov does have to beat surprise Mongolian selection Unubold Orkhontungalag  (Ekhmandakh Kharkuugiin was an Asian bronze medallist at this weight last year while Orkhontungalag lost in the minimumweight prelims) and Dusmatov, Sehyeong Jo  first. Dusmatov won this fight in the Asian final last year and is reigning world champion although Bibossinov won this fight on his way to winning the 2021 world title. This is the first of many potential blockbuster Uzbek vs Kazakh matchups. I've gone for Dusmatov based off recent form but either of them could win this. I also would definitely not rule out Deepak or Tsuboi shocking the winner in a semi final.

 

Men's 57kg

Gold-  Abdumalik Khalokov , Silver- Makhmud Sabyrkhan , Bronze- Daniyal Shahbakhsh , Asror Vokhidov .

Other Olympic calibre boxers- Munarbek Seitbek Uulu , Mohamed Abu Jajeh , Carlo Paalam , Sachin , Rujakron Juntrong .

 

The top of this draw throws up some fascinating fights with flyweight Olympic bronze medallist Carlo Paalam(I know he is naturally a bantamweight but it is bizarre that he has opted to come up to featherweight rather than go down to flyweight again) facing Mohammad Abu Jajeh of Jordan who is Asian champion and world bronze medallist at lightweight. It is about as big of a size mismatch as you get and both are excellent boxers so it should be a fascinating fight. The winner of that fight will face world bronze medallist Munarbek Seitbek Uulu in another quality fight. These interesting matchups will likely be made completely redundant with world champion Abdumalik Khalokov almost certainly waiting in the quarter finals. Khalokov's likely opponent in the semis is Daniyal Shahbakhsh who he beat in the 60kg world championship semi finals in 2021. Shahbakhsh faces home boxer Ping Lyu  in the last 32 before another size mismatch fight in the quarter finals against Sachin who surprisingly got selected over world and asian bronze medallist Mohamed Hussamuddin.

 

In the bottom half of the draw the weakest bracket will likely see Tajikistan get themselves a medal through world quarter finallist Asror Vokhidov. His biggest test will be a likely quarter final against either Lundaa Gantumur  or Shudai Harada . However bantamweight world champion Makhmud Sabyrkhan is the massive favourite to take the second Olympic quota. Getting himself selected ahead of Serik Termizhanov and Orazbek Assylkulov (who beat Khalokov at Strandja) is perhaps more impressive than his bantamweight world title. Anyway his path involves South and North Korean boxers before a probable quarter final against Rujakron Juntrong. This would obviously set up an Uzbek vs Kazakh final.

 

Men's 63.5kg

Gold-Ruslan Abdullaev , Silver- Shiva Thapa , Bronze- Bunjong Sinsiri , Chu en Lai .

Other Olympic calibre boxers- Bakhodur Usmonov ,  Chinzorig Baartarsukh  .

 

The top of this draw is very barren of talent with Asian bronze medallist Chu en Lai the only notable boxer in one bracket and Asian silver medallist Shiva Thapa the only notable one in the other. Chu's toughest fight before the semi finals will either be against home boxer Xiaoyang Wang  or youngster Mark Ashley Fajardo . Chu is not likely to qualify though. Shiva Thapa meanwhile has only one even remotely challenging fight in the last 16 against Askat Kultaev .

 

The third bracket sees reigning welterweight Asian champion Bunjong Sinsiri who faces a whole lot of nothing. His tough prelim fight may well be a quarter final against Cholman Choe . If most of the draw is quite weak then the bottom of the draw must be and is absolutely loaded. 3 of the 4 world medallists this year are all here plus Yertugen Zeinullinov  (Probably be the weakest of the Kazakh boxers though) and Olympian Obada Al Kasbeh . The winner of the Zeinullinov Al Kasbeh fight will face Bakhodur Usmonov in the last 16. The other last 16 fight will almost certainly see a repeat of this years world championships final between Ruslan Abdullaev and Chinzorig Baartarsukh. This draw is ridiculously harsh on Baartarsukh who should end up being one of the favourites to medal in Paris. Abdullaev vs Usmonov should be an excellent fight too in an at this point hypothethical quarter final. Abdullaev while he is world champion couldn't really have asked for a tougher draw almost certainly meeting the 2nd, 3rd and 4th ranked boxers on his way to the final. The one most likely to beat him is probably the somewhat unknown Bunjong Sinsiri and if there is a men's weight where neither the Uzbeks nor the Kazakhs make the final it might be this one.

 

Men's 71kg

Gold- Aslanbek Shimbergenov , Silver- Bayramdurdy Nurmuhammedov , Bronze- Nishant Dev , Nuradin Rustambek Uulu .

Other Olympic calibre boxers- Zeyad Eashash , Sewonrets Okazawa , Asadkhuja Muyddhinkujaev .

 

Well, This is the most uneven draw of the lot and it's not close. I did not expect to be picking Turkmenistan to get an Olympic quota here but well I am. The top bracket of this draw sees Asian bronze medallist Nuradin Rustambek Uulu fight absolutely nobody even worth mentioning on his to way to at least a bronze medal. The second bracket isn't much better but does have some I suppose "international" calibre boxers. Bayramdurdy Nurmuhammedov has a straightforward last 32 fight before coming up against Nidal Foqahaa   in the last 16 prior to a likely quarter final against Peerapat Yeseungden . All three of these boxers won at least one fight at world championships but Nurmuhammedov's wins were the most impressive. Picking him to beat the much more established Rustambek Uulu might prove a bad choice but Rustambek Uulu really isn't particularly good. (I will be so annoyed if I got this pick wrong).

 

Anyway all the actual talent is in the bottom half of the draw. The third bracket sees Asian silver medallist Zeyad Eashash face the awkward former world welterweight champion Sewonrets Okazawa. Eashash beat Okazawa last year for what its worth. That will set up a likely quarter final against world bronze medallist Nishant Dev which is a tough one to call given how inconsistent Eashash tends to be. We have another early Kazakhstan Uzbekistan matchup in the final bracket with reigning Asian and world champion Aslanbek Shimbergenov facing welterweight world champion Asadkhuja Muyddhinkujaev. Both are excellent boxers and I honestly have no idea who will win this fight.

 

Men's 80kg

Gold- Turabek Khabibullaev , Silver- Eumir Marcial , Bronze- Nurbek Oralbay , Ahmad Ghossoun  .

Other Olympic calibre boxers- Hussein Iashaish , Tanglatihan Tuohetaerbieke , Weerapon Jongjoho .

    

Its amazing how many of these draws seem so unbalanced. So the top of this draw sees last year's world youth champion Turabek Khabibullaev almost certainly face last year's Asian champion and two time Olympian Hussein Iashaish. I'm backing the youngster here. Then we have yet another case where the two world championship finalists face off in the opening round. Nurbek Oralbay prevailed on a narrow split decision on that occasion although of course Tanglatihan Tuoheaebieke now has home advantage. I'll stick with Oralbay but I don't feel comfortable with that one. He will face the winner of Lakshya Chahar  against Asian bronze medallist Omurbek Bekzhigit Uulu . Regardless of the different potential outcomes here it sets up a fascinating semi final for the quota spot. I don't entirely trust Oralbay so I'm going to go out on a bit of a limb here and say the young Uzbek wins it. On the bottom half of the draw sees Asian medallist at 75kg Seyedshahin Mousavi  face Shabbos Negmattuloev  in what should be a good last 16 fight. The winner will likely face Arabian champion Ahmad Ghossoun in a hypothethical quarter final. Mousavi and Ghossoun met twice in 2018/2019 with each getting one win apiece. Eumir Marcial hasn't boxed as an amateur since winning bronze in Tokyo but in theory has a fairly straightforward route to an Olympic quota here. He faces Dalai Ganzorig  (who doesn't seem to have boxed outside Mongolia before) in his first fight before facing a vietnamese boxer who he has beaten multiple times before in the last 16. His quarter final will likely be against former world middleweight medallist Weerapon Jongjoho. I have to say this feels like one of the toughest weightclasses to predict.

 

Men's 92kg

Gold- Lazizbek Mullujonov , Silver- Arslanbek Achilov , Bronze-Odai Al Hindawi  ,John Marvin Noble  .

Other Olympic calibre boxers- Sagyndyk Togambay .  

Lazizbek Mullojonov won last years superheavyweight Asian title but has moved back down to heavyweight to accommodate the return of Bakhodir Jalolov. He opens up is tournament here against Sanjeet  before a quarter final against home boxer Han Xuezhen . He should breeze threw both of these fairly handily. The second bracket sees surprise Kazkakh selection Sagyndyk Togambay (Aibek Oralbay won this event at last years Asian champs) opens up against Bariakhaan Dorj  (who also doesn't seem to have boxed outside Mongolia before) before facing Odai Al Hindawi in a likely quarter final who he lost to at last years cruiserweight Asian champs. Al Hindawi himself does have to come through Asian bronze medallist Toufan Sharifi  first. The third bracket is quite weak and will see John Marvin Noble  almost certainly beating Rabin Nepal  (That can't actually be his name can it (I mean there are Irish people with the surname Ireland but even still)(They aren't really Irish though)) (Google says Nepal is a real surname). (That was a weird tangent). and Jaemin Jeong . The last bracket is a battle of the smaller stans. Arslanbek Achilov doesn't seem to have boxed since 2018 but back then he was half decent boxer meets Davlat Boltaev  who made the quarter finals at world champs this year in the last 16. The winner then faces 86kg Asian bronze medallist Erkin Adylbek Uulu  in a quarter final. All three of them could medal and by extension secure an Olympic quota (I would pick any of them over Noble) but bizarrely for the second time I'm backing a Turkmenistani boxer to qualify albeit based off results he had five years ago.

 

Edited September 24, 2023 by Ogreman

[Ogreman 205]

(I ran out of emojis)

Men's 92+kg

Gold- Bakhodir Jalolov , Silver- Kamshybek Kunkabayev , Bronze-Danabieke Bayikewuzi , Narendar Berwal .

Other Olympic calibre boxers- N/A.

 

A draw where the best two boxers are on opposite sides of the draw. It's a miracle. Kunkabayev will likey comfortably beat the winner of Olympian Danis Latypov  and Mohamed Mlaiyes  in his quarter final. Narendar has a very straightforward path to joining Kunkabayev in the semis but is very unlikely to beat him. Danabieke Bayikewuzi also should have an easy path to a medal with just a quarterfinal against probably Byeknur Khali . Bakhodir Jalolov has a quarter final against Asian bronze medallist Muhammad Abbrordinov  but his only potential "test" will be the final against Kunkabayev. Jalolov is unbeaten since 2018 and has beaten Kunkabayev 3 times in that span all unanimous decisions. This is definitely the easiest weightclass to predict.

 

 

[Ogreman 205]

	Predicted medal table	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Olympic Qs
1	Uzbekistan	6	0	1	7
2	Kazakhstan	3	3	2	6
3	China	2	1	3	5
4	India	1	2	2	3
5	South Korea	1	0	0	1
6	Philippines	0	2	1	2
7	Turkmenistan	0	2	0	2
8	Chinese Taipei	0	1	4	3
9	Thailand	0	1	3	2
10	North Korea	0	1	0	1
11	Japan	0	0	3	2
12	Jordan	0	0	1	0
12	Kyrgyzstan	0	0	1	0
12	Tajikistan	0	0	1	0
12	Syria	0	0	1	0
12	Vietnam	0	0	1	0
12	Bahrain	0	0	1	0
12	Iran	0	0	1	0
	Total	13	13	26	34

 

This is how the medal table/ Olympic qualifiers would look if my predictions were accurate. They will not be but the final medal table should at least look vaguely similar. Mongolia is the only notable country that entirely missed the podium in my predictions.

[Roamingrover86 469]

6 hours ago, Ogreman said:

Sachin who surprisingly got selected over world and asian bronze medallist Mohamed Hussamuddin.

Hussamuddin is injured , else he would have been selected. 

 

6 hours ago, Ogreman said:

controversial Indian selection and world bronze medallist Deepak Bhoria (I for one think selecting him over former world champion and commonwealth champion Amit Panghal is perfectly reasonable

I agree , Deepak’s selection is on merit & nothing controversial about it. We have a system in place now, where you just don’t make the team based on ONE trials but a point scoring system across a period. The points are awarded based on a range of factors by the coaching team. 
 

Finally, I feel we may add one more quota & medal in women’s section in either 54/57. The draws are unseeded & lopsided but we it eventually evens out, we get some good draws like 63.5 (M) 75 (W) & some stinkers 71 (M) 51 (M) etc 

 

So overall 4 quota places & 7-8 medals should be a good return . 

 

 

 

 

 

[Griff88 1,737]

boxer got a knockout hit from , thankfully he is alright

[Ogreman 205]

5 hours ago, Roamingrover86 said:

Finally, I feel we may add one more quota & medal in women’s section in either 54/57. The draws are unseeded & lopsided but we it eventually evens out, we get some good draws like 63.5 (M) 75 (W) & some stinkers 71 (M) 51 (M) etc 

Parveen could absolutely at 57kg. I just picked Xu Zichun because it is in China. Preeti qualifying would very much surprise me. Ah the myth that it will even out in the end. Sample size is too small even taking into account multiple qualifying tournaments and the Olympics themselves. For most countries yeah overall draws should be fairly even but some will get absolutely shafted.

5 hours ago, Roamingrover86 said:

So overall 4 quota places & 7-8 medals should be a good return . 

Look this prediction ended up on the pessimistic side for India and the draw while not terrible certainly doesn't help so India probably will outperform my predictions. I'm not sure how they get to 8 medals though. Remember there are only the Olympic weights here and a lot of India's recent major medals have come at non-Olympic weight classes.

[Roamingrover86 469]

@Ogreman You might want to revisit er predictions again. We are at the QF stage now with medals & quotas just 1/2 fights away. Plenty of upsets , shocks & surprising results while some fights went as per expectations some were debatable decisions. 
What do you make of it so far?