Boxing at the Asian Games 2022 Road to Paris 2024

[dodge 705]

13 minutes ago, intoronto said:

The USA has an athlete in every weight class for the Pan Am Games.

Oh, ok. I only had a quick look at the wikipedia list of qualifiers that listed them with only 5

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boxing_at_the_2023_Pan_American_Games_–_Qualification

 

 

[intoronto 4,244]

12 minutes ago, dodge said:

Oh, ok. I only had a quick look at the wikipedia list of qualifiers that listed them with only 5

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boxing_at_the_2023_Pan_American_Games_–_Qualification

 

 

They did not attend the qualification tournament, because it was useless. The event turned into an open entry event, so no need to send athletes to qualifiers (and save money), unlike its NA neighbour :P

[Olympian1010 7,479]

51 minutes ago, intoronto said:

They did not attend the qualification tournament, because it was useless. The event turned into an open entry event, so no need to send athletes to qualifiers (and save money), unlike its NA neighbour :P

I think there might be some financial benefits to qualifying athletes the traditional for NOCs. I think the bill is a bit longer for “open entry” athletes. The qualification system is kind of confusing in this regard.

Edited October 4, 2023 by Olympian1010

[Olympian1010 7,479]

For those in need of a good laugh, or cry, about the current state of boxing I suppose…

 

 

[Ogreman 205]

So I hit 18/34 (52.9%) qualifiers which ye know isn't accurate but is pretty much bang on as accurate as I said I woul be. Hit 13/20 women and only 5/14 men but that trend has kinda been true of my previous predicitions as well and it is just much easier to predict semifinalists rather than finalists (or winners in Africa's case). After pan ams I will rank every boxer that has competed (I don't think I will bother to wait for oceanian games as they are unlikely to produce any qualifiers at the world qualfying tournaments.)

For completeness I got 31/52 (59.6%) of the podiums right.

 

If I had to guess right now I would say the world qualifiers will likely be around 40% European, 37.5% Asian 17.5% American and 5% African. Why am I trying to estimate this, this will obviously be wrong and these will vary wildly between men and women. Skewing towards Asia for the men and towards Europe (and the Americas) for the women. What's interesting though is especially for the men I had thought becuase of there being less continental qualifying spots available for Asia that the first qualifying tournament would qualify a disproportionate number of Asian boxers and then Europe's depth would prevail at the second tournament but obviously with the first one being in Italy and the second one being in Thailand that might correct for that and even shift things the other way. 

 

Anyway enough rambling this tournament. So first of all the judging and refereeing was atrocious. I would lean towards incompetence rather than anything else but after a relatively promising start at Europeans this and African qualifying have been a bit of a mess judging wise. I don't have the time to but I would be interested to see the ratio of split to unaminous decisions at this tournament because surely it must be skewed more so than normal towards split decisions. (Side note, I'm trying hard not to start a corruption conversation here but while yes some of the decisions China got here were outright ridiculous, Judges favouring home boxers in "close" fights is well established and even if was extreme here I'm not sure it was all that different to what India got at women's worlds or what Bulgaria get at Strandja.)

 

I will briefly go through weight by weight but I think Japan's men are a good example of the judging being incompetent rather than anything else. Japan had three men make the podium (1 gold, 1 silver, 1  bronze) and all of them are quite similar in that they jump around very stylishly, are very confident, celebrate wildly and occasionally leap in and throw a rally so end up throwing a decent volume of punches. The issue with them (especially Okazawa) is that none of their punches actually land. Basically they are exactly the type of boxers that fool a bad judge (and much to my annoyance commentators) into thinking they are having success when they just aren't.  

 

Women's 50kg- I don't want to say I called it because I literally didn't but I did warn you to not be surprised if Nikhat lost and lo and behold Chuthamat Raksat beat her. She is still a medal contender here for the Olympics but she is just a contender and certainly not the favourite or anything. Wu Yu is a decent champion but wouldn't exactly strike fear into me if I was from the rest of the world.

Women's 54kg- I'm not sure Yuan Chang deserved to win any of her four fights here (When I say I'm not sure I mean she didn't but I didn't see them all so I can't say for sure) but the look on her face when she wasn't gifted the final against Chol mi Pang made me chuckle. Hsiao Wen Huang, Jutamas Jitpong and Zhaina Shekerbekova all not qualifying here is a bit ominous given the quality also left in Europe. There are going to be some names who have a genuine case as a contender to medal here that ultimately won't qualify. (This is true in most of the men's weights but likely only this one on the women's side of things. Then again pound for pound the best boxers at this weight wouldn't compete with most of the other ones.)

Women's 57kg- This Lin Yu ting Karina Ibragimova matchup is kind of fascinating. It is two one to Lin now. Could easily end up being a medal fight at the Olympics. Well done to Parveen, I shouldn't have doubted her. I did not see Mijgona Samadova coming at all. Didn't actually beat anyone especially impressive here but given that she had barely won a fight internationally (albeit she kept getting tough draws) in recent years that is still a significant achievement. 

Women's 60kg- Won Ungyong ay, Who knew? If it wasn't for that one rogue North Korean I probably would have nailed this podium. (Wenlu Yang might have beaten Oh Yeonji but sure we will never know)

Women's 66kg- I simultaneously nailed this podium prediction wise and feel like I didn't deserve to because that Nien Chin Chen Liu Yang fight should have probably gone Chen's way although it certainly wasn't the most egregious decision.

Women's 75kg- I mean I got this right too but there were only nine entries so it shouldn't have been that hard. 

 

Men's 51kg- I mean my predictions ended up ok. I obviously didn't see So Chonryong coming but given the quality of his opponents maybe I should have just picked him. I don't like Tsuboi style but sure look he wins fights. I managed to not see any of Thitisan Panmot's fights so I'm not sure how good he is yet form an Olympic prospects perspective. There are only 16 qualifying spots available in total here so some big names will miss out.

Men's 57kg- First of all Abdumalik Khalokov has to be one of the best if not the best (Jalolov is already a pro so) pound for pound amateur boxers in the world right now. I still don't understand why Carlo Paalam is at 57kg but sure he might have qualified it he hadn't run into Khalokov. There were a couple of controversial decisions here so as they happened. Makhmud Sabyrkhan did not deserve to lose to O Taebom but he also should have won comfortably and not left it up to the judges to make a decision (It will be fascinating to see of he keeps his place ahead of Termizhanov and Assylkulov now). The way the Sachin Ping Lyu fight ended was unfortunate and while if three rounds had played out I would have expected Sachin to come through and win it there was nothing wrong with the decision here. And finally again Rujakron Juntrong absolutely did not deserve to lose to Shudai Harada but again he left it up to the judges when with both boxers at their best Juntrong should win comfortably. Such is the way with this qualifying system but that might have been his best chance.

Men's 63.5kg- Chinzorig Baatarsukh produced one of the best performances of anyone here going through a gauntlet to win and while Sofiane Oumiha is the favourite for gold in Paris, Baatarsukh looked good enough to beat him here. Chu En Lai rode the easy side of the draw surviving a scare when the judges just about managed to avoid robbing him against Wang Xiangyang. Again easy draw for Ali Qasim Al Sarray but you don't see Iraq winning boxing medals everyday. My predictions proved to be atrocious.

Men's 71kg- I was so close with the Nurmuhammedov pick so close. Chia Wei Kan and Chinese Taipei as a whole and a surprisingly good tournament here. I did not think their men would be as competitive as they were. I mentioned the Okazawa thing earlier. I just don't get it. If you were to slow mo his fights and carefully count how many punches actually land would you get past ten in any of his fights? I didn't see the the Okazawa Eashash fight, and look Nishant Dev hardly landed much himself against him either. Nishant Dev is a decent boxer but as a counterpuncher he seems to really struggle when he comes up against other counterpunchers. Shymbergenov should have won here but at the same time he was pretty unimpressive outside of a brilliant third round round to over turn a lost fight against Asindkhuja Muydinkhajaev. Kazakhstan had a bad tournament here but they did at least deserve to qualify here (They probably got robbed at 57kg and 80kg as well but they were in prelims so they might not have qualified anyway.) 71kg is a weird weightclass. I was unconvinced by the European qualifiers and nobody here exactly screamed Olympic medallist.

Men's 80kg- Tanglatihan Touhetaerbieke is a very good boxer but rode his luck big time to win here. All four of his fights could have gone the other way and I thought Turabek Khabibulllaev definitely deserved to beat him although like it was at least close. Turabek Khabibullaev is a major talent even if he fell short here. Eumir Marcial looked good here and a second Olympic medal could be on the cards in Paris. If the Oralbay Tuohetaerbieke fight and just been split the other way these predictions would have looked great.

Men's 92kg- I'm still confused as to how we ended with Davlat Boltaev beating Han Xuezhen in the final here. I should have picked Boltaev but Han Xuezhen being good enough to allow him to ride hometown decisions to the final is bonkers. I would bet a lot of money he loses his first fight in Paris. I would complain but this tournament has me gone from thinking Jack Marley was a decent but outside chance at an Olympic medal to a situation where he is probably a favourite to medal. Look there is a lot of talent in the Americas here though, and this is definitely one of the weakest weights in Asia. 

Men's 92+kg- No shocks and look I got this one right too. Only men's weight where I got both qualifiers right. Based on this it seems clear that if they only capped entries at 13 I wouldn't get a single predicition wrong .

 

[phelps 6,872]

11 hours ago, Ogreman said:

(...)

Men's 57kg- First of all Abdumalik Khalokov has to be one of the best if not the best (Jalolov is already a pro so) pound for pound amateur boxers in the world...

(...)

 

 Khyzhniak and  Mouhiidine (and maybe even  JC La Cruz and  Andy Cruz) have just collapsed because they couldn't stop loughing 

[Ogreman 205]

6 hours ago, phelps said:

 Khyzhniak and  Mouhiidine (and maybe even  JC La Cruz and  Andy Cruz) have just collapsed because they couldn't stop loughing 

Look Khyzhniak is great but he also would have fallen short of qualifying at European games if Kelyn Cassidy was just able to see out a fight. 

Mouhiidine has a case but l think Khalokov is better than him. Julio Cesar La Cruz is getting old, Still great but not p4p best in the world great and Andy Cruz is no longer an amateur boxer.

Khalokov is great like, why would the best featherweight in the world not at least be in contention to be top of a p4p ranking. If you disagree that he should be at the top thats fine but like he is undneniably there or there abouts.

 

[phelps 6,872]

2 hours ago, Ogreman said:

Look Khyzhniak is great but he also would have fallen short of qualifying at European games if Kelyn Cassidy was just able to see out a fight. 

Mouhiidine has a case but l think Khalokov is better than him. Julio Cesar La Cruz is getting old, Still great but not p4p best in the world great and Andy Cruz is no longer an amateur boxer.

Khalokov is great like, why would the best featherweight in the world not at least be in contention to be top of a p4p ranking. If you disagree that he should be at the top thats fine but like he is undneniably there or there abouts.

 

I can take the "among the candidates" for the p4p best title, but definitely not "the p4p best" 

[Roamingrover86 469]

10 hours ago, phelps said:

 Khyzhniak and  Mouhiidine (and maybe even  JC La Cruz and  Andy Cruz) have just collapsed because they couldn't stop loughing 

Have you seen Khalokov box ? Kyyzhniak , yes & La cruz WAS a phenomenal boxer …but if you are a betting man, it wouldn’t surprise me if you would bet in Khalokov winning the gold in Paris. 
 

[phelps 6,872]

12 hours ago, Roamingrover86 said:

Have you seen Khalokov box ? Kyyzhniak , yes & La cruz WAS a phenomenal boxer …but if you are a betting man, it wouldn’t surprise me if you would bet in Khalokov winning the gold in Paris. 
 

I'd never bet a single cent in Boxing, as results are never "correct", in favor of the strongest fighter, but only some political profiteering

 

p.s. for what I've seen so far, with fair judging Khalokov should take the Olympic Gold, but I haven't watched all the boxers who will qualify for the tournament, so, let's wait and see

 

p.p.s. however, a few cents on Oumiha and Bennama medalling in Paris should be considered a good investment