How many medals do you think Team Canada will win at the 2024 Olympics

[Josh 10,493]

There's most likely going to be an increase, but by how many? And who would you predict to win medals?

[intoronto 5,637]

I hope at least 25. But hard to gauge right now

 

[Topicmaster1010 4,166]

First of all, welcome to the forum Josh! Hope you've enjoyed your stay so far. Always great to see another Canadian join.

 

Even though we're still two years out, I'll give this a shot although my knowledge of some of these sports isn't that great. Scroll to the bottom if you want the medal prediction summary. Keep reading if you want my sport-to-sport breakdown.

 

Archery: Guessing Crispin Duenas will be the main contender here again so a medal would be highly unexpected.

 

Artistic Swimming: Duet podium will be China, Ukraine, Austria or Russia, China, Ukraine if Russia isn't banned. Team podium will be China, Ukraine, Japan or Russia, China, Ukraine if Russia isn't banned. Still two years away but we already know who the medalists are. No chance for Canada here.

 

 

 

Athletics:

 

Quite a few medal contenders here.

 

Let's start with the men. Andre de Grasse had a down season but hopefully he can recover in time for Paris. If he's in form, he'll once again be a contender in the 100m and 200m and will anchor a promising 4x100m relay with gold medal potential. In the 800m, there's Marco Arop who just won a bronze at worlds. In the decathlon, you have Damian Warner and Pierce LePage. Don't know if Evan Dunfee will be in Paris or not but his medal chances are probably close to none now with the 50km walk and no woman to compete with him in the mixed 35km walk. Ugh. In the 5k and 10k, you have Mo Ahmed. Not sure what happened to Justyn Knight this season but he looked promising in Tokyo. Maybe Lovett could be a contender and maybe the two hammer throwers of Adam Keenan and Ethan Katzburg can be contenders.

 

On the women's side, the best track contenders look to be Gabriela Debues-Stafford in the 1500m and the 4x400m relay at this point. Neither look to be likely though. Field events have more promise with Sarah Mitton in the shotput and Camryn Rogers and Jillian Weir in hammer throw. Maybe Liz Gleadle in the javelin throw. Hopefully Rogers and Mitton can be gold medal contenders in two years.

 

I think we also have a few good young prospects so hopefully they can be good come Paris.

 

 

 

Badminton: No

 

Basketball: Cautiously optimistic about basketball. Women's 3x3 team looks pretty good right now so they can hopefully be medal contenders come 2024. One of my biggest qualification wishes is for the men's 5x5 team to finally qualify. Considering that coach Nick Nurse recently got 14 players to make a three year commitment, it gives the players time to build chemistry with each other and if they qualify, they can definitely be medal contenders. Women had a disappointing Olympics in Tokyo but should still be in the mix.

 

Beach Volleyball: Doesn't looks like there's any chance on the men's side. For the women, Pavan/Melissa just parted ways so there goes a medal contending pair. But Wilkerson/Bukovec just won a silver medal at the world championships and the McNamara twins are also decent. Medal is definitely possible.

 

Boxing: Tammara Thibeault and Charlie Cavanagh winning medal at world championships is very encouraging. Thibeault in particular looks to be in great form this year but there's still 2 years to go so fingers crossed.

 

Breaking: I know absolutely nothing about this sport but apparently we had a guy that was pretty good a few years ago but I don't see his name on the word ranking lists now so probably no won't be contending for medals here.

 

Canoeing: No chance in slalom probably. In sprint, women's canoeing will be the main hope medals with Katie Vincent and Sophie Jensen. On the men's side Fitzpatrick is probably the best hope.

 

Cycling - BMX: Nope

 

Cycling - Mountain Bike: On a downward trajectory in the sport so not likely.

 

Cycling - Road: Don't know too much but considering the Tour de France results, maybe Hugo Houle or Michael Woods?

 

Cycling - Track: Kelsey Mitchell will probably be the name to watch although after the Commonwealth games, she probably isn't the main favourite in the sprint anymore. Not the greatest Commonwealth games for Lauriane Genest but hopefully she can continue to improve. As of now, hoping for two medal in the women's sprint disciplines and maybe one in the pursuit.

 

Diving: Team is young but there's definitely potential. Mia Vallee is looking like the athlete to watch. On the men's side, best chance of a medal looks like the synchronized pair of Zsombor-Murray and Wiens. The problem as always is that China is always going to take all the golds and the silvers in the individual events.

 

Equestrian: Don't really know much about this sport but medals don't seem likely at this moment.

 

Fencing: Also cautiously optimistic about this sport. Considering we had 3 top 10 fencers in women's foil at some point this season, a medal would definitely be possible in the team event as well as the individual event.

 

Field Hockey: Unless the field freezes over, can't expect any medals here.

 

Football: Women will definitely contend.

 

Golf: Field is usually wide open and I would say the some Canadian golfers can definitely get a medals if they have an excellent tournament.

 

Gymnastics - Artistic: One of the most satisfying medals of the games would be if Ellie Black can finally win a medal. Not sure if Shallon Olsen is going to compete but she would probably be a contender on vault. I thought we had a man that was also pretty good now but I might be wrong. But at the end of the day, a lot can change in this sport in two years.

 

Gymnastics - Rhythmic: No

 

Gymnastics - Trampoline: Anyone know if Rosie is planning to compete still? She would hopefully still be a contender. And looking at the world cup series, there's another woman that's 2nd in the standings, although there's no Chinese athletes in the standings.

 

Handball: Lol

 

Judo: With Jessica Klimkait, Catherine Beauchemin-Pinard, the Deguchi sisters, Shady El-Nahas, and Arthur Margelidon, we have a pretty good core. A few medals should be expected and hopefully there can be a gold medal this time.

 

Modern Pentathlon: No

 

Rowing: Not sure what the boat situation is at this moment, but I would imagine that we would have a few medal contenders here.

 

Rugby Sevens: Both teams aren't looking great so a medal would be a shocking at this point.

 

Sailing: Sarah Douglas showed in Tokyo that she can contend. Not sure about the other boats but that might be it.

 

Shooting: Nope

 

Skateboarding: If we do win a medal, it'll likely come from men's street but that doesn't seem likely.

 

Sport Climbing: Probably not

 

Surfing: I can't name a single Canadian surfer besides that surfer that won gold at the junior world championships or whatever it's called. Paris is probably too early for her though.

 

 

 

Swimming:

 

This is once again the sport that should provide the most medal opportunities for Canada.

 

On the men's side, Josh Liendo looks to be one of the biggest names on the team in two years. He will expect to contend for medals in the 50m Freestyle, 100m Freestyle, and 100m Butterfly as well as lead the 4x100m freestyle relay team to a medal. The problem is he is going against many super athletes. Caeleb Dressel, David Popovici and Kristof Milak are all super talents and guys like Kyle Chalmers and Ben Proud are also really good. But Liendo is also a great talent in his own right and is just 20 years old. He's going to go to the University of Florida to train with Caeleb Dressel and coach Anthony Nesty, the coach who's responsible for Katie Ledecky's resurgence this season. I'm hopeful he can win at least one individual medal. The relay team also looks promising with Liendo, Gaziev, Kisil, Acevedo and Calkins. Going to have to beat at least 3 of USA, Australia, Italy, Great Britain and Brazil. Hard but doable.

 

Elsewhere on the men's side, Finlay Knox showed some promise this season swimming with a Canadian record swim in the 200m Individual Medley at trials. Then he was sick at worlds so didn't do too well. I don't see him medaling because of the two young 20 year old superstars that are Leon Marchand and Carson Foster. Not sure what happened to Cole Pratt this season, but he's still only 20 and there is room for improvement though a medal is still very unlikely.

 

Despite a poor performance at the Junior Pan-Pacs, Adam Wu was definitely the best Canadian male athlete at the meet highlighted by a bronze medal and big drop personal best time in the 200m Freestyle. Don't see a medal happening but who knows in two years. If we go even younger to the 14-15 category, Laon Kim had a great Canadian Championships and also competes in the same events as Wu. Unfortunately, male swimmers don't usually become medal contenders in their teens (unless you're a certain Romanian teenager).

 

Now onto the women. She's on track to be the biggest Canadian gold medal favourite and the face of the 2024 Canadian Olympic Team. Summer McIntosh needs no introduction. Ranked 1st in the Ranked 200m Butterfly and 400m Individual Medley, ranked 3rd in the 200m Individual Medley and 400m Freestyle, ranked 6th in the 200m Freestyle and also showed to be pretty good at the 100m and 800m Freestyle. What an incredible season she's had. At her current form, she will compete for six medals in Paris: 400m Freestyle, 200m Individual Medley, 400m Individual Medley, 200m Butterfly, 4x100m Freestyle Relay, 4x200m Freestyle Relay. It could've been seven if the 200m Freestyle and 400m Individual Medley weren't on the same day. Either way, what an incredible talent at 16!

 

Maggie MacNeil even with her mental health struggles this season and an injured wrist proved that she's still a force to be reckoned with in the 100m Butterfly. Her main contenders at this point look like Huske, McKeon, Wattel, Zhang and Curzan, but given how good her turns incredible turns and explosive back half speed, as well as her history of being clutch, there's a good chance she'll head to Tokyo as the gold medal favourite.

 

Kylie Masse has no doubt been the most consistent Canadian swimmer since the Rio 2016 Canadian breakout. Though not in the career best form she was in last season, she'll once again be a contender in the backstroke events, she still won gold in the 50m backstroke and silver in the 100m backstroke at both the Worlds and Commonwealth games. Too bad the 50m backstroke isn't in the Olympics. Didn't do as well in the 200 backstroke but I'm hoping she went with more of a speed focus in a non-olympic year. Unfortunately, she will be 28 by the time Paris comes while Smith and McKeown will both be much younger with some other American talents coming through.

 

Penny Oleksiak hasn't quite had the individual success she's had since her Rio breakthrough but she always delivers on the relays. She'll be a medal contender again in the 100m and 200m Freestyle but the biggest problem is that the Australian swimmers are ridiculously good. Her success could depend on the form the Australians are in come Paris. But Penny always comes through in Olympic years so it's safe to expect her to put up good times in both the individual and relay events.

 

All 3 relays are also expected to be medal contenders. Unfortunately, losing Kayla Sanchez is going to hurt a lot. Thankfully, in the 400m Freestyle Relay, Summer McIntosh looks to be her replacement and recently had a rolling 53 second split at the Commonwealth games. So at this point, the lineup looks to be McIntosh, Ruck, MacNeil, Oleksiak. Australians look unbeatable so the main challenge will be with the US for silver again likely though now with Sanchez gone, the Americans might have passed us. The 800m Freestyle Relay is more complicated because McIntosh is already on the relay team. McIntosh and Oleksiak should be locks for the relay. Given her resurgence this year, Taylor Ruck should also be on the team. That leaves the final spot to be likely to be between Rebecca Smith, Katerine Savard, Mary-Sophie Harvey and Ella Jansen. It's worth noting that Ella Jansen at 16 years old had a 1:57 rolling split and was the 2nd fastest swimmer behind McIntosh at the Commonwealth games so she could be the favourite for the 4th spot. In the medley relay, the big question as always is can someone deliver a good breaststroke leg. Masse, MacNeil and Oleksiak should take care of the other legs.

 

Elsewhere, there could be some surprise medals on the women's side. Mary-Sophie Harvey has had a career year so far and looked great at the world championships. Kelsey Wog had a surprise 4th place finish in the 200m breaststroke. It would be great if she could produce some great times in the 100m as well and  be the missing link in the medley relay. Ingrid Wilm was a monster in the ISL the previous season and she finally had some long course success this year. Hopefully she can keep on improving. And then there's Taylor Ruck. She looked much improved this year. If she could ever return to her 2018 form, that would be massive.

 

In women's swimming, it's pretty common to have teenagers to come out of nowhere to be medal contenders so let's take a look at some prospects on the women's side. Ella Jansen is probably the biggest name. She swims roughly the same events that McIntosh swims and comes from the same swim club as her. She recently put up a personal best time in the 400m Individual Medley at the Commonwealth Games but didn't do as well at the Pan-Pacs. There's also Regan Rathwell who has swam under the Olympic qualifying time in the 200m Backstroke this year but was also not in form at the Pan-Pacs. In the 13-14 year old category, there's also some names to watch. Maxine Clark recently broke Oleksiaks's age-group record in the 100m Butterfly and also won several other medals in butterfly and freestyle events at the Canadian Championships and Canada games. Could she be the next Oleksiak/MacNeil? Too early to say. And then there's Halle West. She broke McIntosh's age-group record at the Canadian trials in the 200m Individual Medley and I believe she also swam a 1:11 breaststroke at 13 years old. Could she end up being the missing breaststroke link in the medley relay? Again, too early to say.

 

 

 

Table Tennis: No

 

Taekwondo: I imagine Skylar Park can still be a contender. Don't think we have any contenders besides that but I don't know the sport too well.

 

Tennis: The talent level of our players is there. The consistency hasn't been there though. Who knows what we'll get in Paris.

 

Triathlon: Doesn't look too promising.

 

Volleyball: Men are on a downward trajectory. Woman aren't good enough.

 

Weightlifting: Hopefully Maude Charron will still be great. With quotas being reduced heavily, don't even know if we'll qualify anyone else.

 

Wrestling: Also on a downward trajectory in this sport. Maybe a women's medal?

 

So in conclusion, based on this year's results, let's break it down like this:

 

Swimming: 8-13

Athletics: 3-10

Cycling (all disciplines): 2-5

Judo: 2-4

Diving: 1-3

Rowing: 1-3

Basketball: 0-2

Beach Volleyball: 0-1

Boxing: 0-2

Canoe Sprint: 0-2

Fencing: 0-2

Football: 0-1

Weightlifting: 0-1

Breakout/Surprise Medals: 1-3

 

So pessimistic total is 18 medals, optimistic total is 50 medals . The mediam gives 34 medals . I feel like it'll more likely in the mid to high 20s instead. Will be over the moon if we actually end up winning over 30 medals.

[seb851 31]

On 9/1/2022 at 5:40 AM, Topicmaster1010 said:

 

 

Judo: With Jessica Klimkait, Catherine Beauchemin-Pinard, the Deguchi sisters, Shady El-Nahas, and Arthur Margelidon, we have a pretty good core. A few medals should be expected and hopefully there can be a gold medal this time.

 

Catherine Beauchemin-Pinard propably retire after 2022 World Championship, 

 

Arthur Margelidon is downward, same for Crista Deguchi, Kelly is not a big deal ...

2 or 3 medal if CBP continue to Paris 2024 or Deguchi go to 63kg ..