Swimming Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024

[OlympicsFan 860]

1 minute ago, dullard said:

Australia could easily lose 1.5 seconds to China in the breaststroke leg and then Zhang will likely outsplit McKeon in the fly.

Yeah, but Australia should be at least 0.6 seconds faster on the freestyle leg.

[Epic Failure 364]

9 hours ago, OlympicsFan said:

I still don’t see China seriously threatening the U.S. or Australia. China should be about 1.5 seconds behind after the first leg and all the waves will make it very difficult to catch up. I think China is a rather clear favorite for bronze, but probably not more than that. I actually think that China could medal in all 7 relays. The men’s 800 free relay should be the closest call, followed by the men’s 400 free relay. There is a chance that only 4 different nations will win relay medals. Especially the women’s relays look super „shallow“, only the U.S., Australia, China and maybe Canada look like realistic medal contenders. No European nation has a realistic medal chance.

On the women's side, maybe. On the men's side/mixed, much less likely.

 

The Dutch women and the British women in the freestyle relays have an outside shot to nab a bronze if they are at their best and if Canada or China are not at the absolute top of their game in Paris.

 

On the men's side it is far more open. The 4x100m freestyle alone could have 5 reasonable medal shouts - China, Aus, USA, Italy and GB. And you would probably add South Korea in the 4x200m and France in the medley as having respectable shots.

[Orangehair43 314]

If China wins lots of medals in Paris swimming will be discredited as weightlifting. Still China will likely be banned entirely from LA 2028. 

[phelps 8,672]

11 hours ago, OlympicsFan said:

I still don’t see China seriously threatening the U.S. or Australia. China should be about 1.5 seconds behind after the first leg and all the waves will make it very difficult to catch up. I think China is a rather clear favorite for bronze, but probably not more than that. I actually think that China could medal in all 7 relays. The men’s 800 free relay should be the closest call, followed by the men’s 400 free relay. There is a chance that only 4 different nations will win relay medals. Especially the women’s relays look super „shallow“, only the U.S., Australia, China and maybe Canada look like realistic medal contenders. No European nation has a realistic medal chance.

no way  can win a medal in the men's 4*200m free relay

 

 can only throw it away, then  and  are definitely a lot better than them, even  with Ragaini's explosion already have a better lineup than  

and  are also still ahead, even if they're not performing at their best yet (and maybe they're not going to show their real potential until the Games)

[dullard 744]

 

42 minutes ago, phelps said:

no way  can win a medal in the men's 4*200m free relay

 

 can only throw it away, then  and  are definitely a lot better than them, even  with Ragaini's explosion already have a better lineup than  

and  are also still ahead, even if they're not performing at their best yet (and maybe they're not going to show their real potential until the Games)

We'll see Australia's real potential at trials.

[phelps 8,672]

44 minutes ago, dullard said:

 

We'll see Australia's real potential at trials.

we'll see...

 

but I'm not sure they're gonna show the world all of their tricks before the Games, their result in France will be better than the sum of the trials' times, I think (and not by just the expected couple of seconds because of the internal changeovers)

[phelps 8,672]

Chinese Nationals, Day #6

 

women's 200m Fly

1.Zhang Yufei, 2.06.40
2.Chen Luying, 2.06.81

men's 200m Backstroke

1.Xu Jiayu, 1.57.70
2.Wang Yutian, 1.58.29

women's 200m Breaststroke

1.Ye Shiwen, 2.22.55
2.Tang Qianting, 2.25.27

men's 50m Freestyle semis

Pan Zhanle, 21.99
Yu Hexin, 22.18

women's 200m Backstroke semis

Peng Xuwei, 2.09.25

 

o.s. I just can't see the men's 200m IM semis results, meanwhile there were no remarkable clockings in the women's 4*200m Free Relay (the best was Li Bingjie, who swam 1.57.03 in the 1st leg for his team)

[Vic Liu 1,701]

6 minutes ago, phelps said:

Chinese Nationals, Day #6

 

women's 200m Fly

1.Zhang Yufei, 2.06.40
2.Chen Luying, 2.06.81

men's 200m Backstroke

1.Xu Jiayu, 1.57.70
2.Wang Yutian, 1.58.29

women's 200m Breaststroke

1.Ye Shiwen, 2.22.55
2.Tang Qianting, 2.25.27

men's 50m Freestyle semis

Pan Zhanle, 21.99
Yu Hexin, 22.18

women's 200m Backstroke semis

Peng Xuwei, 2.09.25

 

o.s. I just can't see the men's 200m IM semis results, meanwhile there were no remarkable clockings in the women's 4*200m Free Relay (the best was Li Bingjie, who swam 1.57.03 in the 1st leg for his team)

men's 200m IM semi

Wang Shun 1.57.24

Zhang Zhanshuo 2.00.64

[OlympicsFan 860]

12 hours ago, phelps said:

no way  can win a medal in the men's 4*200m free relay

 

 can only throw it away, then  and  are definitely a lot better than them, even  with Ragaini's explosion already have a better lineup than  

and  are also still ahead, even if they're not performing at their best yet (and maybe they're not going to show their real potential until the Games)

Do you even follow swimming? Please look up the results of the last world championships. When did Italy last go faster than the Chinese time from this year? 
China, South Korea and Australia should normally fight for bronze. Don’t see how Italy is relevant in this discussion.

[Epic Failure 364]

5 hours ago, OlympicsFan said:

Do you even follow swimming? Please look up the results of the last world championships. When did Italy last go faster than the Chinese time from this year? 
China, South Korea and Australia should normally fight for bronze. Don’t see how Italy is relevant in this discussion.

Italy were 5th at the last Olympics and 5th in Budapest last summer (as well as 5th in Doha), both in 7:03-something.

 

Yes, China and South Korea were faster in Doha, but that WC is not necessarily a good guide as to who will perform in Paris because we just don't know who was tapered.

 

I certainly wouldn't be ruling Italy out of the running.