I found this on NRK (Norway) NRK Sport – Sportsnyheter, resultater og sendeplan
FIFA suggests 16 women-team og 12 men-team. Decision tomorrow.
09:02
Fifa foreslår historisk kvinneløft i OL-fotballen – kan bli vedtatt onsdag
Det internasjonale fotballforbundet vil snu fordelingen og la 16 kvinne- og 12 herrelag spille fotball i OL.
Onsdag er det styremøte i Den internasjonale olympiske komité (IOC).
Det er de som må ta den endelige avgjørelsen etter at Fifa-president Gianni Infantino fortalte om forslaget på Uefa-kongressen i Beograd før helgen.
Infantino sier at Det internasjonale fotballforbundet ønsker å øke antallet kvinnelag for å styrke kvinnefotballbevegelsen.
Årsaken til at IOC angivelig ikke ønsker å øke det totale antallet lag til 32, er ifølge nyhetsbyrået AP at rundt 70 ekstra spillere pluss lagledere presser grensen for avtalte utøverkvoter i OL neste sommer-OL.
I de siste sommerlekene har fotballturneringene bestått av 12 kvinnelag og 16 U23-lag (med innslag av eldre spillere) for menn.
OL i 2028 arrangeres i Los Angeles i USA. Fifa-forslaget kan havne på IOCs bord allerede på onsdagens styremøte. (NTB)
I found this on NRK (Norway) NRK Sport – Sportsnyheter, resultater og sendeplan
FIFA suggests 16 women-team og 12 men-team. Decision tomorrow.
09:02
Fifa foreslår historisk kvinneløft i OL-fotballen – kan bli vedtatt onsdag
Det internasjonale fotballforbundet vil snu fordelingen og la 16 kvinne- og 12 herrelag spille fotball i OL.
Onsdag er det styremøte i Den internasjonale olympiske komité (IOC).
Det er de som må ta den endelige avgjørelsen etter at Fifa-president Gianni Infantino fortalte om forslaget på Uefa-kongressen i Beograd før helgen.
Infantino sier at Det internasjonale fotballforbundet ønsker å øke antallet kvinnelag for å styrke kvinnefotballbevegelsen.
Årsaken til at IOC angivelig ikke ønsker å øke det totale antallet lag til 32, er ifølge nyhetsbyrået AP at rundt 70 ekstra spillere pluss lagledere presser grensen for avtalte utøverkvoter i OL neste sommer-OL.
I de siste sommerlekene har fotballturneringene bestått av 12 kvinnelag og 16 U23-lag (med innslag av eldre spillere) for menn.
OL i 2028 arrangeres i Los Angeles i USA. Fifa-forslaget kan havne på IOCs bord allerede på onsdagens styremøte. (NTB)
I found this on NRK (Norway) NRK Sport – Sportsnyheter, resultater og sendeplan
FIFA suggests 16 women-team og 12 men-team. Decision tomorrow.
09:02
Fifa foreslår historisk kvinneløft i OL-fotballen – kan bli vedtatt onsdag
Det internasjonale fotballforbundet vil snu fordelingen og la 16 kvinne- og 12 herrelag spille fotball i OL.
Onsdag er det styremøte i Den internasjonale olympiske komité (IOC).
Det er de som må ta den endelige avgjørelsen etter at Fifa-president Gianni Infantino fortalte om forslaget på Uefa-kongressen i Beograd før helgen.
Infantino sier at Det internasjonale fotballforbundet ønsker å øke antallet kvinnelag for å styrke kvinnefotballbevegelsen.
Årsaken til at IOC angivelig ikke ønsker å øke det totale antallet lag til 32, er ifølge nyhetsbyrået AP at rundt 70 ekstra spillere pluss lagledere presser grensen for avtalte utøverkvoter i OL neste sommer-OL.
I de siste sommerlekene har fotballturneringene bestått av 12 kvinnelag og 16 U23-lag (med innslag av eldre spillere) for menn.
OL i 2028 arrangeres i Los Angeles i USA. Fifa-forslaget kan havne på IOCs bord allerede på onsdagens styremøte. (NTB)
I found this on NRK (Norway) NRK Sport – Sportsnyheter, resultater og sendeplan
FIFA suggests 16 women-team og 12 men-team. Decision tomorrow.
09:02
Fifa foreslår historisk kvinneløft i OL-fotballen – kan bli vedtatt onsdag
Det internasjonale fotballforbundet vil snu fordelingen og la 16 kvinne- og 12 herrelag spille fotball i OL.
Onsdag er det styremøte i Den internasjonale olympiske komité (IOC).
Det er de som må ta den endelige avgjørelsen etter at Fifa-president Gianni Infantino fortalte om forslaget på Uefa-kongressen i Beograd før helgen.
Infantino sier at Det internasjonale fotballforbundet ønsker å øke antallet kvinnelag for å styrke kvinnefotballbevegelsen.
Årsaken til at IOC angivelig ikke ønsker å øke det totale antallet lag til 32, er ifølge nyhetsbyrået AP at rundt 70 ekstra spillere pluss lagledere presser grensen for avtalte utøverkvoter i OL neste sommer-OL.
I de siste sommerlekene har fotballturneringene bestått av 12 kvinnelag og 16 U23-lag (med innslag av eldre spillere) for menn.
OL i 2028 arrangeres i Los Angeles i USA. Fifa-forslaget kan havne på IOCs bord allerede på onsdagens styremøte. (NTB)
Milano-Cortina 2026 Quota Simulation: 2024-25 Data Edition
Hello fellow Totallympians and welcome to another quota simulation. This time, the focus has shifted over to the winter Olympics. There's still a ski mountaineering world cup and some a few world championships to go but I thought I would post this while everyone is still in winter sports mode. I'll post minor updates if any data changes over the next month but I don't there'll be many changes. There's a few things to note before we begin.
Total # of NOC's
Overall, we have a total of 88 NOC's that are qualified/projected to qualify for the Olympics. This would represent a decrease of 4 NOC's from the 91 nations in Beijing although Russia and Belarus were competing separately then. On the other hand, with Russia/Belarus being limited to how many sports and how many athletes they can qualify, many of the major winter sports nations are projected to have their largest team ever.
Russian/Belarusian athletes
Speaking of Russia and Belarus, they are included in this simulation and just like in 2024, it was very annoying to factor them in considering they didn't compete in competitions in the last year at all (besides ski mountaineering). I've only included these athletes in the skating sports and ski mountaineering. The ISU has already announced a pathway for Russian/Belarusian athletes to qualify and neutral athletes are already competing in the ski mountaineering competitions. Russia was easy to simulate since it was safe to assume that one athlete would qualify in each event. Belarus was a bit harder and involved me looking at individual times/scores for their athletes this year. At the end of the day, I decided to include Belarusians in women's singles and pairs for figure skating and the men's 500m & 1000m along with all of the women's events in speed skating. All of the women's speed skating events may be a bit too generous but that was how it was in 2022.
Total # of athletes
In total, 2874 athletes are projected to qualify from this simulation. This is despite the athlete cap being at 2900. There are a few reasons for this discrepancy.
Bobsleigh: Only 162 of the maximum 170 quotas were used.
Curling: Only 109 of the maximum 120 quotas were used. This is due to certain players being simulated to play in both the mixed doubles and 4 person events resulting in them taking up two quotas.
Figure Skating: The additional 5 quotas allowed for the team event were used here. After simulating the final qualifying event, only Canada, France, Georgia, Italy and the USA had full teams so I gave an additional quotas to Great Britain in men's singles, Japan in ice dance, and South Korea in Pairs.
Freestyle Skiing: Only 277 quotas were used here compared to the maximum 284 quotas. The women's halfpipe looks like it will have trouble filling up their 25 quotas as only 23 quotas were used and I believe 5 athletes simulated currently do not have the required amount of FIS points to be eligible. Men's aerials and women's ski cross originally had enough athletes to fill up the allotted quota. However, Canada and the USA were over the maximum limit so after simulating rejected quotas, those events didn't have enough athletes to fill the allotted quotas and women's aerials just made it. Henry Sildaru (EST) is also projected to qualify in both men's halfpipe and slopestyle/big air.
Luge: Only 105 of the maximum 106 quotas were used here because Wolfgang Kindl (AUT) is projected to qualify in both men's singles and men's doubles
Snowboarding: Only 237 of the maximum 238 quotas were used here. Cody Winters (USA) is projected to qualify in both PGS and snowboard cross.
In addition, there are also 3 athletes expected to compete in multiple sports: Phillip Bellingham (AUS) in cross-country skiing and ski mountaineering, Ester Ledecka (CZE) in alpine skiing, and snowboarding, and Arianna Fontana (ITA) in short track and speed skating. Please let me know if there's any other possible athletes that could also be in this list.
Internal qualification procedures
Internal qualification procedures for countries like the Netherlands and New Zealand WERE NOT taken into account this time for the sole reason because it's fun seeing the Netherlands have an athlete in Nordic Combined
Differences from the FIS quota simulations
If you have a look at the FIS quota simulations on their webpages for alpine skiing, cross-country skiing, freestyle skiing, and snowboarding, you'll notice there are some differences.
Alpine Skiing: NOC's with a man or woman that hasn't qualified yet were taken into account. If the athlete hasn't had the required amount of races to qualify but is averaging the necessary amount of points to qualify, I simulated them as qualified (e.g. Morocco).
Cross-Country Skiing: FIS only simulated 138 quotas in each gender. I reallocated the remaining 10 quotas per gender based on the Olympic nations' ranking. There is a clause that if an unqualified NOC scores 300 points or less in a world cup race next season, they can qualify. However, that is very unlikely to happen (unless Russia and Belarus are invited back) since there are already athletes from qualified NOC's competing in World Cup races that get lapped.
Freestyle Skiing: I took into account Canada and the USA rejecting quotas since they were both initially over the 32 athlete quota limit. I had Canada rejecting 2 quotas in women's aerials, 1 each per gender in moguls, 1 in men's halfpipe, and 2 in men's slopestyle/big air. I had the USA rejecting 1 quota in men's aerials, 1 in men's ski cross, and 2 in women's ski cross.
Snowboard: Two athletes in women's snowboard cross were not eligible to qualify and were replaced with athletes on the reserve list that were eligible.
Speaking of athlete eligibility, there were some athletes that were simulated by FIS that didn't meet eligiblity requirements. I decided that if there was an eligible athlete on the reserve list, then the ineligible athlete would be replaced but if there wasn't an eligible athlete on the reserve list, I would keep the ineligible athlete in the quota list (e.g. Vanuatu in freeski halfpipe).
Anyways, that's enough talking. Let's begin! The numbers in brackets represent the change from the NOC's athlete total at Beijing 2022.
Please comment if you have any questions, thoughts or observations.
*Correction 05/01/2024 - Czech Republic to receive the third individual slot not Denmark as initially announced on 3/01/2024 as there was a tie in the Rankings for that third NOC individual qualification slot between Mia HASTRUP from Denmark and Miroslav TRUNDA from Czech Republic. Both Athletes were ranked equal in their results as athlete/horse combinations which does not break the tie according to the Olympic Eventing Ranking Rules and therefore Article 528.1.6 Final Classification Tie (Individual) from the FEI Eventing Rules has been applied – whereby the combination with the best XC score at the highest level event would be ranked first and obtain the individual quota place for their NOC. In accordance with Article 528.1.6 Final Classification Tie (Individual), Miroslav TRUNDA (CZE) riding SHUTTERFLYKE have obtained the best XC score, and should therefore be ranked above Mia HASTRUP (DEN) riding CONSTANTIN M in the Rankings, making the Individual Quota place go to Czech Republic and not Denmark.
*Correction 05/01/2024 - Czech Republic to receive the third individual slot not Denmark as initially announced on 3/01/2024 as there was a tie in the Rankings for that third NOC individual qualification slot between Mia HASTRUP from Denmark and Miroslav TRUNDA from Czech Republic. Both Athletes were ranked equal in their results as athlete/horse combinations which does not break the tie according to the Olympic Eventing Ranking Rules and therefore Article 528.1.6 Final Classification Tie (Individual) from the FEI Eventing Rules has been applied – whereby the combination with the best XC score at the highest level event would be ranked first and obtain the individual quota place for their NOC. In accordance with Article 528.1.6 Final Classification Tie (Individual), Miroslav TRUNDA (CZE) riding SHUTTERFLYKE have obtained the best XC score, and should therefore be ranked above Mia HASTRUP (DEN) riding CONSTANTIN M in the Rankings, making the Individual Quota place go to Czech Republic and not Denmark.
*Correction 05/01/2024 - Czech Republic to receive the third individual slot not Denmark as initially announced on 3/01/2024 as there was a tie in the Rankings for that third NOC individual qualification slot between Mia HASTRUP from Denmark and Miroslav TRUNDA from Czech Republic. Both Athletes were ranked equal in their results as athlete/horse combinations which does not break the tie according to the Olympic Eventing Ranking Rules and therefore Article 528.1.6 Final Classification Tie (Individual) from the FEI Eventing Rules has been applied – whereby the combination with the best XC score at the highest level event would be ranked first and obtain the individual quota place for their NOC. In accordance with Article 528.1.6 Final Classification Tie (Individual), Miroslav TRUNDA (CZE) riding SHUTTERFLYKE have obtained the best XC score, and should therefore be ranked above Mia HASTRUP (DEN) riding CONSTANTIN M in the Rankings, making the Individual Quota place go to Czech Republic and not Denmark.
My team sport predictions with tiers (I prefer doing it this way instead of just handing out G, S & B):
I'll put an * next to not already qualified teams (in some cases I'll be considering the chances of two teams that can't both qualify, eg. Slovenia and Greece in men's basketball).
These are tiers that grade the teams according to my perception of their chances to win a medal (ANY medal, not just gold). Though if I rate a team in the highest tier ("very likely to win a medal") it also means they're the main gold medal favorite for me.
If you see that a qualified team is not included in any tier then it means I believe the medal chances of that team are rather marginal.
I opted to skip 3x3 predictions cuz my knowledge is not deep enough (I follow the results but I'm not too aware about roster changes from tournament to tournament and such).
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