That would definitely be very good for us, as 12 golds is still our record for best Games ever, in Sydney!
I agree with your analysis. I also predict around 12 medals, with rowing, sailing and Harrie Lavreysen as most reliable factors.
I'd add men's hockey team, women's waterpolo team and Niek Kimmann as outside chances as well. Maybe Joanne van Lieshout too.