India's realistic medal events are
Badminton Women's Singles - The World Championships showed how ruthless PV Sindhu can be. The only player who can beat her is Tai Tzu Ying. If she gets a draw where she avoids Tai till the semis then a medal is assured
Men's Javelin Throw - Depends on Neeraj Chopra's rehabilitation and recovery. The upcoming IAAF World Championships could be an indicator
Boxing - 1 or 2 medals minimum. Mary Kom, Lovlina , Amit Phangal are genuine hopes
Shooting - 3 to 5 medals. Saurabh Chaudhary in 10m AIr Pistol, Apurvi and Anjum in 10m Air Rifle, Manu Bhaker in 25m Pistol, Mixed team in both Pistol and Rifle
Weightlifting - 1 medal, Mirabai Chanu in in Women 49kg
Wresting - 2 to 3 medals, Bajrang Punia in M 65kg, Seema Tomar in W 50kg, Vinesh Phogat in W 53,
More optimistic hopes
Badminton Men's Singles - Barring Kento Momota, anyone can beat anyone on the day. Kidambi needs his form and confidence back
Badminton Women's Singles - Saina Nehwal is still good enough and this probably will be her last Olymics
Men's Field Hockey - The top 4 teams are too good. Need luck on the day
So overall expecting in the range of 8-12 medals