stratocumulus

3 hours ago, Mecki83 said:

Actually she is third below the line but apparently the two universality places have already been reallocated to Rebecca Langrehr  and Natalia Dominiak   who where number one and two below the line.

I am sorry, but whose flag did you put with Natalia Dominiak?  

Well, it seems no one noticed, but  Krzysztof Chmielewski (try to read as: Kshyshtof Khmielevski) has qualified for 800m freestyle during the European Championships (7:50:51):

11 hours ago, Makedonas said:

Will Swiatek play women's doubles with Magda Linette?

Though it has not been officially confirmed (or rejected), I do not think so. Świątek said, she would not manage three events and most probably she is going to decline the women's doubles:

https://www.meczyki.pl/newsy/tenis/swiatek-i-linette-zagraja-w-deblu-na-igrzyskach-olimpijskich-liderka-rankingu-wta-wyslala-wazny-sygnal/227614

Don't you think this qualification via the Nations Cup is quite a pervert thing? You have to have two fairly good times and one of them is sure NOT to go to Olympics even if they jointly win the competition. What incentive does it give the "weaker" duo to support the team performance? I could imagine a crate of beer they drink later together on the beach would not necessarily do for a motivation :D And what if there has been some past between the members of the two duos?

All in all I find it one of the most curious qualification processes ever;]

It will be difficult Olympics for  Poland. In the 21st century we struggle to get a double-digit number of medals. Until now it worked every single time. In Paris it might not be that optimistic.

Realistically it will be something between 8 and 11, 2-3 gold. Four should be in for sure (no screenshots please!;). From the section "probable" I hope for 3 out of 7. The section "maybe" should deliver 1 medal out of 8 opportunities. The rest is chance.

I wish I would be proved sooo wrong, but the past Games have taught me to keep the expectations low. Still I take my vacation for the Olympics to watch undisturbed;) 

For those who want to know the detail:

Absolutely Must:

Rowing - M4X - bronze
Sport Climbing - Speed - A. Mirosław - gold
Tennis - W ind - I. Świątek - gold
Volleyball - Team Men - something

Probable

K2 W - silver
K4 W - bronze
Fencing - Team Epee - bronze
Judo -63kg W - Angelika Szymanska - silver
Sailing - IQFoil M - Paweł Tarnowski - gold
Sport Climbing - Speed - N. Kałucka - bronze
Athletics - Hammer Throw M - W. Nowicki - silver

Maybe

Canoe Slalom - Klaudia Zwolinska K1 - bronze
Shooting - someone? - bronze
Sailing - someone? - bronze
Swimming - someone? - bronze
Tennis - Mixed Doubles - bronze
Volleyball - Team women - bronze
Wrestling - Z. Baranowski - bronze
Athletics - 400W - N. Kaczmarek - bronze

With looooooooooads of luck:

Beach Volleyball - Bryl/Łosiak
Basketball 3x3 - Men's Team
Boxing - someone
Wrestling - some woman
Athletics - 100m hurdles - Pia Skrzyszowska
Athletics - 4x400X
Athletics - 4x400W

Road Cycling - W Road Race - K. Niewiadoma

Track Cycling - Mateusz Rudyk - Ind Sprint - bronze

8 hours ago, rybak said:

Women's K2 500m - Martyna Klatt/Helena Wiśniewska and Karolina Naja/Anna Puławska

Wait.... like we could have BOTH teams in the competition?  I thought we would have to decide for one boat.... 

A z innej beczki.... Oglądam właśnie mecz siatki SLO-BRA. Aż się boję, co będzie, jak w 1/4 w Paryżu przytrafi nam się mecz POL-SLO.... wpisywałby się we wszystkie najgorsze koszmary naszej siatkówki - łącznie z tym, że w XXIw. polscy siatkarze za każdym razem odpadali z innym rywalem, a Słowenii na tej liście jeszcze nie ma....;)

9 hours ago, rybak said:

@stratocumulus Zapomniałeś o kobiecej drużynie w rugby, aczkolwiek patrząc na wyniki z ostatnich dni oraz ostatnie mecze z Chinkami, ich szanse na awans wydają się zerowe.

Wyliczenie "optymistyczne" faktycznie pomija te szanse, w które kompletnie nie wierzę (np. drużynę rugby kobiet czy halowej koszykówki)

9 hours ago, rybak said:

Marcin Dzieński stracił swoją jedyną szansę podczas kwalifikacji europejskich, nad czym bardzo ubolewam, na równi z brakiem kwalifikacji drużyny sprinterów w kolarstwie torowym oraz Lilianny Lewińskiej, chociaż tutaj wiemy co poszło nie tak....

Ale p. Dzieński startuje przecież w Olympic Qualifying Series, więc szanse zachowuje. Tyle tylko, że w Szanghaju wypadł tak słabo, że teraz już chyba tylko zwycięstwo w drugich zawodach z serii może uratować kwalifikację.... por. np. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Olympic_Qualifier_Series

9 hours ago, rybak said:

 

W podnoszeniu ciężarów na szczęście mamy tą realokację, byłby to wstyd gdyby nikt nie pojechał.

Amen

9 hours ago, rybak said:

 

W męskim biegu na 1500m oprócz Wyderki dałbym Filipa Raka a na 100m Dominika Kopcia.

Trzymam kciuki, dodam do wersji optymistycznej

9 hours ago, rybak said:

 

W pływaniu być moze wpadnie dodatkowa kwalifikacja w męskiej sztafecie 4x100 dowolnym.

Ta kwalifikacja jest już bodaj uwzględniona:
https://totallympics.com/qualification-tracker/paris-2024/qualification-by-sport/swimming/mens-4-x-100m-freestyle-relay-r1480/

Actually the problem with cyclocross, snow volley, ice sailing (but this one would be tough considering the climate changes) is that the IOC had a rule not to allow the sport federations to compete in BOTH Summer and Winter Olympics.... I would love to change that rule, at least for the sake of snow volley.

If we speak about minor wishes, I would like to balance quotas between some sports. Consider we have i.e. 16 quotas for taekwondo tournaments and 15 to 20 TEAM quotas in equestrian disciplines plus several individual ones. Would not that deserve a better balancing?

Also I would like to have more diverse disciplines in Winter Olympics. We have all kinds of erverything in summer sports - martial arts, precision sports, ball games, pure athletics.... I miss something like snow-wrestling or....idk, like a snowball fight :D Might be a team event  But as a simple wish as I sad before: snow volley would be a perfect addition to the winter programme.

4 hours ago, konig said:

I came here to say the same, thanks for the post.

I was wondering as this post came from a Brazilian, how was it meant  I heard guys you had hard times with each other down there.... ;p

Hej, post przygotowany po ang, ale mam nadzieję, że będzie ok:)

Any predictions for the final number of qualified athletes? As of today (30.05.2024) I stay optimistic and bet 207 with the remaining entries would be like:

Archery:                                remains null

Athletics                               +25 (as per WA ranking - I think the number is more or less correct, maybe could go slightly up):

Badminton:                           remains null

Basketball 5x5:                    remains null

Beach Volleyball:                  +2

Boxing:                                  +2 (being positive;) EDIT: 05.06. => 2 quotas confirmed

Breaking:                              remains null

Golf:                                      +1

Judo:                                    +3 EDIT: 05.06. => 3 quotas nearly confirmed from the ranking

Modern Pentathlon:            +2

Shooting:                             +1

Skateboarding:                    remains null

Sport Climbing:                   +1

Swimming:                           remains as it is now

Tennis:                                 +4

Weightlifting                        +1 EDIT: 05.06. => reallocation confirmed

Any challenging comments are very welcome:)

Expected qualifiers:

Athletics:

100m W - Stefanowicz & Tsimanouska

200m W - Tsimanouska & Kotwiła

800m W - Sarna & Wielgosz

1500m W - Płocińska

3000m W - Konieczek sisters & Królik

LJ W - Horowska
SP W - Kardasz

DT W - Zabawska

HT W - Kopron

JT W - Andrejczyk

100m M - Wdowik

200m M - Komański & Żok

1500m M - Wyderka

110m M - Szymański & Kiljan

PV M - Sobera

SP M - Bukowiecki & Haratyk

JT M - Mrzygłód & Krukowski

Beach Volleyball:

M: Bryl/Łosiak (FIVB ranking)

Boxing:

M: Durkacz, Bereznicki

Golf:

M: Adrian Meronk from the ranking

Judo:

M: Kuczera

W: Szymańska, Bacut-Kłoczko

Modern Pentathlon:

W: Maliszewska

M: Kasperczak

Shooting:

W: Stankiewicz through ranking

Sport Climbing:

W: N. Kałucka

Tennis:

W: Swiatek, Frech, Linette

M: Hurkacz

Possible positive surprises:

Archery: +1 (someone in the final tournament)

Athletics: +4 (Witek in JT W, Wojciechowski in PV M, some runners - Rak, Kopec?)

Beach Volleyball: +2 (Gruszczyńska/Ola in the CEV European Continental Cup)

Sport Climbing +1 (Dzienski?)

Swimming +1 (someone?)

Tennis +1 (Zielinski?)

The changes are subject to acceptance by the benefiting federations though, are they not?

The rankings after the WC have been published:

https://www.ijf.org/wrl_olympic

For Poland  according to Polish Boxing Association:

Durkacz in, Brach out.

https://pzb.com.pl/10-region/4347-kwalifikacje-olimpijskie-zwyciestwo-damiana-durkacza

They take their time there...

Well, I do not know about the others, but in Poland  it is the matter of the ROI in rowing, which is a fairly measurable and comparable quote.

So if you compare the cost of quotas for Poland: (only 2024, there are statistics for other years, but I do not have time now to dig deeper)

2,45M PLN for a quota in rowing

0,68M PLN for a quota in fencing (which was not a focus in Poland in the past years)

1,2M in sailing (which is MUCH more expensive when it comes to the equipment, training areas and so on)

0,95M kayak sports (both sprint and slalom - and we skip the fact that you could use the same athletes in multiple events) 

one sees it has become much more expensive to send a rowing athlete to the Olympics. I cannot find the respective data for i.e. 2019, but it was around 12-13M PLN for 20 athletes in Tokyo, which is around 0,6-0,7M PLN for a quota. The cost has then roughly quadrupled between Tokyo olympics and Paris.

This is also a POV on a "disastrous" results - surely not the only angle, but one that widens tne perspective.

An absolute disaster for Poland 

With only six athletes and two boats we have reached a historical low in our rowing history. Last time we had this small team in... 1968 with only three athletes (but with only 26 athletes in total possible, so the quotient is very similar in 2024). In the 21st century we always had 20 or nearly 20 athletes qualified, so 6 this olympic cycle is a total disaster.

According to the Polish Ministry of Sport, 2024 the Rowing Federation was awarded 14,7M PLN for the targeted preparations to the olympic start (https://www.gov.pl/attachment/af98eca0-deee-41a5-9764-26038d879f58, "Polski Związek Towarzystw Wioślarskich"), which was the 3rd most financed Polish sport federation (after the athletics and canoeing federations - which are both expected to deliver medals in Paris). Even though historically the Polish Rowing Federation was a good performer, something cracked since the last Olympics.

The last two years were very sad time for Polish rowing fans. Let us hope it is just a temporary backlash. 

Wow, that was close! But at least one men's kayak boat for Poland is in. Canoe sprint is among three most financed Polish sport federations for Olympics, so we basically should qualify in each class. No MK4 is already a huge loss... :/

Good luck to MC2!

And btw - the transmission on the website of the Canoe Federation is now behind a paywall or am I just too dumb to play it?