Athletics Qualification to Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympic Games

[dcro 10,210]

Athletics qualification ALWAYS ends up with more athletes than there should have been. It's kind of sad that some Twitter expert doesn't know about that.

[heywoodu 16,010]

On 12/12/2019 at 14:50, JoshMartini007 said:

For anyone interested, here's what my prediction model suggests on medal chances for each event in athletics. I may have to change to a hybrid model for long distance (5000m, 10000m, walks and marathon) events as quite often the pace/strategy is different in each race. The low number of competitions for some athletes caused a couple of weird results so hopefully they continue to compete in 2020. Below are the athletes with a greater than 50% chance at winning the gold medal in an event.

 

Caster Semenya - Women's 800m - 99.21%

Katarina Johnson-Thompson - Women's Heptathlon - 81.91%

 

 

 

Still there's no way in hell I'd put any money on KJT winning on odds that reflect these percentages

 

About Semenya: I guess that's not taking into account the whole CAS/whatever thing?  

 

It's a nice way to show how someone's best results only don't always mean that much, especially the 100m is a good example: Divine Oduduru was fast as hell in the college races, but very disappointing when it got overseas, international and actually big. Based on those fast college times (like so many college sprinters) he gets a very high chance of winning the gold, even though in reality this chance is probably way, way lower.

Edited December 14, 2019 by heywoodu

[JoshMartini007 2,767]

6 hours ago, heywoodu said:

Still there's no way in hell I'd put any money on KJT winning on odds that reflect these percentages

 

Yeah, the lack of competitions in heptathlon hurts the model. In the end KJT had two out of the three top performances of the year with only Thiam being anywhere close so I'm not surprised she ended up with such a high chance.

 

6 hours ago, heywoodu said:

About Semenya: I guess that's not taking into account the whole CAS/whatever thing?  

 

Obviously not, I'll probably remove those performances when(if?) she competes or she gets dropped due to not participating at the Olympics.

 

7 hours ago, heywoodu said:

It's a nice way to show how someone's best results only don't always mean that much, especially the 100m is a good example: Divine Oduduru was fast as hell in the college races, but very disappointing when it got overseas, international and actually big. Based on those fast college times (like so many college sprinters) he gets a very high chance of winning the gold, even though in reality this chance is probably way, way lower.

 

Yeah, currently I don't take competition importance into account as it can be quite subjective. Basically, the model acknowledges he can theoretically achieve those results and thus gives him a decent chance. We'll see what 2020 brings him.

[Wumo 3,024]

Update  - Week 50 - December 9 to December 15 - 2019

 

Men's 10,000m 

 +1

https://worldathletics.org/athletes/australia/stewart-mcsweyn-277902

 

 

Qualified Quotas Overview
Men (Total Quota: 463)	Women (Total Quota: 451)

 

 

 Stewart McSweyn has now achieved the Olympic Standard in the 1500m, 5000m and 10,000m. 

Edited January 10, 2020 by Wumo

[Shravan Kumar 109]

Guys is there any website which updates Olympic qualification rankings for Athletics.

[Agger 1,701]

4 hours ago, Shravan Kumar said:

Guys is there any website which updates Olympic qualification rankings for Athletics.

 

@Johne has a nice tracker: https://bluecattechnical.shinyapps.io/RoadtoTokyo/

 

And the official rankings: https://www.worldathletics.org/world-rankings/100m/men

[Wumo 3,024]

Update  - Week 3 - January 13 to January 19 - 2020

 

Men's High Jump

 +1

https://www.worldathletics.org/athletes/united-states/darryl-sullivan-309585

 

Men's Marathon 

 +1 (Achieved via a Top 5 result in a Gold Label race)

https://www.worldathletics.org/athletes/ireland/stephen-scullion-223786

 

Women's Marathon 

 +1 (Achieved via a Top 5 result in a Gold Label race)

 https://www.worldathletics.org/athletes/azerbaijan/marege-hayelom-274423

 

Qualified Quotas Overview
Men (Total Quota: 465)	Women (Total Quota: 452)

 

After some quiet weeks, we can finally add some more athletes to the list of qualifed athletes for Tokyo 2020. 

In the women's marathon in Houston,  Ursula Sanchez was really close to achieve the Olympic Standard with a 6th place and a time of 2:29:32. Only 2 seconds shy of the Olympic Standard! 

https://track.rtrt.me/e/HOU-2020#/leaderboard/top-women-marathon-_ALL/FINISH

Edited January 23, 2020 by Wumo

[Wumo 3,024]

@Johne

I have a question. Does your Road-To-Tokyo tool take indoor performances into account? I'm asking because it seems high jumper  Darryl Sullivan's jump of 2.33m doesn't appear on your list from this week's update. 

https://www.worldathletics.org/athletes/united-states/darryl-sullivan-309585

Edited January 23, 2020 by Wumo

[Ionoutz24 129]

On 23/01/2020 at 18:29, Wumo said:

@Johne

I have a question. Does your Road-To-Tokyo tool take indoor performances into account? I'm asking because it seems high jumper  Darryl Sullivan's jump of 2.33m doesn't appear on your list from this week's update. 

https://www.worldathletics.org/athletes/united-states/darryl-sullivan-309585

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athletics_at_the_2020_Summer_Olympics_–_Qualification Check this Wumo

[Gianlu33 5,280]

Fabbri - Shot put (21.23m)