How many medals do you expect from your Nation at the 2020 Olympics? (2021 "A" version)

[LDOG 2,468]

Just now, hckošice said:

this is hardly believable

Our country is devastated and covid gave our sport the coup de grace. It will be as I say. Maybe 2 at best.

[Makedonas 2,239]

1-Athletics

1-Gymnastics

1-Sailing

1-Shooting

1-Swimming

3-Others (more of the aforementioned sports, tennis, wrestling, fencing, karate, taekwondo, water polo, cycling, rowing, judo)

 

In athletics our best chances are Stefanidi and Tentoglou. Papachristou and Tzengko I think also have outside chances. I will say expecting 1 medal in athletics is a fair prediction for us.

 

In gymnastics, Petrounias is the defending Olympic champion. If he qualifies, he is Greece's best chance to win a medal in any sport. The only reason he hasn't qualified yet is because he missed one year due to injury. Especially with the Games being moved to 2021, he is in a good position now and probably back to his normal level.

 

In sailing, Mantis/Kagialis won bronze in Rio and I think got 4th at the last World Championships. Karachaliou is ranked 2 in the world and Kokkalanis was close to winning medals in 2012 and 2016. Between these three I think we should expect 1 medal in sailing.

 

In shooting, we obviously have Korakaki who won two medals in Rio and there is also Mavrommatis and Mitas in the men's skeet who are decent. Shooting is an unpredictable sport but I think it is fair to expect 1 medal from this sport.

 

In swimming, Gkolomeev is our best chance as he won silver at the 2019 World Championships. We also have Vazaios and Papastamos who are good and have improved a lot. I also think it is fair to expect 1 medal here.

 

Now for the rest we have some chances like tennis (Tsitsipas and Sakkari), fencing (Gkountoura), karate (Chatziliadou), taekwondo (Telikostoglou), wrestling (Prevolaraki), basketball, water polo, maybe someone in rowing or judo, cycling (Volikakis), or some other surprises in the other sports like sailing (Mitakis), athletics (Kyriakopoulou) etc.

 

 

It is hard to predict because we have a lot of people with chances but not many clear favourites. So I will say 8!

[intoronto 6,408]

3 minutes ago, Makedonas said:

1-Athletics

1-Gymnastics

1-Sailing

1-Shooting

1-Swimming

3-Others (more of the aforementioned sports, tennis, wrestling, fencing, karate, taekwondo, water polo, cycling, rowing, judo)

 

In athletics our best chances are Stefanidi and Tentoglou. Papachristou and Tzengko I think also have outside chances. I will say expecting 1 medal in athletics is a fair prediction for us.

 

In gymnastics, Petrounias is the defending Olympic champion. If he qualifies, he is Greece's best chance to win a medal in any sport. The only reason he hasn't qualified yet is because he missed one year due to injury. Especially with the Games being moved to 2021, he is in a good position now and probably back to his normal level.

I maybe wrong and maybe @thiago_simoescan confirm, but doesn't look like Petrounias will qualify for Tokyo.

[hckošice 15,520]

13 minutes ago, LDOG said:

Our country is devastated and covid gave our sport the coup de grace. It will be as I say. Maybe 2 at best.

well, the same is everywhere, here even the lower "amateur" football leagues are cancelled, indoor sport (even trainings) are completely prohibited (except Hockey & football top 2 leagues, Volleyball, Basketball & Handball 1st leagues and eventual international events). I believe it is the same pretty everywhere.

 

Still, I think athletes are always able to deliver incredible combativeness and get nice medals and results here and there at the Olympics. like Del Potro.

[Makedonas 2,239]

6 minutes ago, intoronto said:

I maybe wrong and maybe @thiago_simoescan confirm, but doesn't look like Petrounias will qualify for Tokyo.

He said this last week:

"China has three men qualified on individual apparatus and, if I'm not mistaken, according to the tie breaking rule, Weng Hao will get the quota on the pommel horse. This is, honestly, the worst that could happen to China. They have virtually no chance of a medal on the pommel horse with the level of the competition as it is. China's best chance would be on the still rings with Liu Yang, and to top it off, Yang qualifying means that Petrounias would not qualify -- what would make a medal for Yang even "easier" to achieve.

According to rumors, the Doha World Cup will be staged in early June, so we'll see how China will deal with their quotas."

 

 

Sorry for China but honestly Petrounias deserves to be in Rio. Gold European and world in 2015, European and Olympic 2016, European and world 2017, European and world 2018, then took a year off due to injury and surgery and came back for the World Championships in 2019 where he got 4th place which isn't enough to qualify. Unlucky because we couldn't qualify in the team event, and he missed a lot of the World Cup series due to injury. His 4th place at the 2019 World Championships was his worst performance in over 5 years and it was only because it was his first competition after injury and he was not in his best shape but still had to go because it was an important qualification event. China wins so many medals and Greece does not, so sorry if this sounds rude but it is a million times more important for us to get Petrounias there instead of Yang.

[CCB 607]

1 hour ago, Andry84 said:

Cycling, rowing, sailing and you have 10 gold medals, then there is hockey, judo, archery, Hassan and something else..... 

Let me be clear. Hopefully I'm wrong. But in our two main sports (rowing and track cycling) the delay of the Games is a disaster. We were well on track for several (gold) medals, but in rowing we lost our lead. And I see the same thing happening in track cycling (GB). 

In judo we have no favorites, that is in any case a sport where you can lose as a favorite just like that. Hassan does not have optimal preparation. Due to corona, she was unable to train with her coach for a year. Then she started running around somewhere else, but her confidence is completely gone.

And why archery? Till now we never won a lot of medals in the big championships. The only medals I remember are a bronze in 2000 Sydney and a mixed silver in 2019. And our sailors also have some problems here and there. For example, Bouwmeester (Laser Radial) has an elbow injury. In the teamsports I don't see happen medal either, except for the hockey women. 

[Vektor 3,326]

3 minutes ago, CCB said:

Let me be clear. Hopefully I'm wrong. But in our two main sports (rowing and track cycling) the delay of the Games is a disaster. We were well on track for several (gold) medals, but in rowing we lost our lead. And I see the same thing happening in track cycling (GB). 

In judo we have no favorites, that is in any case a sport where you can lose as a favorite just like that. Hassan does not have optimal preparation. Due to corona, she was unable to train with her coach for a year. Then she started running around somewhere else, but her confidence is completely gone.

And why archery? Till now we never won a lot of medals in the big championships. The only medals I remember are a bronze in 2000 Sydney and a mixed silver in 2019. And our sailors also have some problems here and there. For example, Bouwmeester (Laser Radial) has an elbow injury. In the teamsports I don't see happen medal either, except for the hockey women. 

You don't see a medal in women's handball? You were one of the most consistent teams in the Olympic cycle and you are the world champions. 

[CCB 607]

10 minutes ago, Vektor said:

You don't see a medal in women's handball? You were one of the most consistent teams in the Olympic cycle and you are the world champions. 

No, I rate Norway, Russia and France higher. Don't forget that we were incredibly lucky at the WCh. We lost 3 games, but we had MVP Estavana Polman, who is injured now. Of course, there is a small chance to win a medal, but 'normally' the three mentioned countries are stronger than us. Therefore I didn't count the handball women for a medal. 

 

(Last ECh only 6th)

[Jinzha 702]

2 hours ago, CCB said:

Actually, I stopped making predictions, because as we see today in rowing, everything always turns out differently than expected. But if I can make a prediction, below my ideas for the sports where  competes:

 

Archery: maybe 1 (men's team)

Artistic gymnastics: 0

Athletics: 1 (Hassan)

Beachvolleyball: 0

Boxing: 1 (Fontijn)

Cycling BMX: 1 (men)

Cycling MTB: 1 (men)

Cycling Road: 2 (women, however I expect Dygert for two golds)

Cycling Track: 4 (based on nothing, because March 2020 was the last Championship - men's sprint 2x, teamsprint, omnium)

Diving: 0

Equestrian: 0

Fencing: 0

Football: 0

Handball: 0

Hockey: 1 (women)

Judo: 2 (-70 women Polling, -90 men Van 't End)

Marathon swimming: 1 (van Rouwendaal)

Rowing: 5 (LW2x, W4x, W4-, M2x, M4x)

Sailing: 3 (470 women, RSX men, 49 er FX women)

Swimming: 1 (200 breast)

Tennis: 0

Waterpolo: 0

 

Around 20-25 medals, 5-6 golds

 

If the Games were in 2020 we would have won gold "for sure" in three rowing events, but today it turned out that other countries have improved a lot! Same for track cycling: we were unbeatable in the sprint disciplines, but maybe this year everything changed.

 

 

 

I don't have much to add really, looks like a solid prediction. I made my version with pessimistic-optimistic ranges:

 

Archery: 0-1

Athletics: 0-2 - no idea what Hassan's form is, feels like in a good week she wins 2 golds and in a bad week she doesn't even run. Hopefully Femke Bol or Nadine Visser can surprise the American competition for a medal as well, even a bronze would be awesome.

Cycling road: 1-2 - a gold for Van der Breggen or Van Vleuten in the road race would be amazing. As a farewell race for AvdB or as a redemption after the Rio fall for AvV.

Cycling track: 3-5 - no competitions to really judge, but in addition to the men's sprint and omnium, I hope there is also a medal chances in the keirin (m) and madisson (m/w) events.

BMX: 1-2 - no clue how everyone is doing in this sport, but the Smulders sisters, Kimmann and Van Gendt were usually all medal contenders.

Mountainbike: 1 - the world cups this spring will have to show how Van der Poel stands in the MTB field. If he has a bad day, there is still Milan Vader and Anne Terpstra that can potentially ride top 3.

Field hockey: 1-2

Artistic gymnastics: 0-1 - another Epke Zonderland gold would be such an amazing story

Handball: 0-1

Judo: 1-2

Rowing: 3-5

Sailing: 3-4 - in addition to RS:X men, 470 women and 49erFX women, there should also be chances in either RS:X or Laser Radial women I think?

Swimming: 0-2 - one medal in open water swimming and hopefully one by Arno Kamminga (m breaststroke) or Kira Toussaint (w backstroke)

Suprise medal: 1-3 - these are always the most fun! Some candidates that I haven't mentioned yet are Football women's team or maybe Keet Oldenbeuving (skateboard). I also noticed I forgot Nouschka Fontijn, but since I have never seen a boxing match in my life, I'll consider her a surprise medal.

 

Total: 15-33

 

As ranges go, it would end up somewhere in the middle around that 20-25 mark. Hopefully with 8 golds like in Rio.

If I could pick and choose, I'd go with: Anne van der Breggen (cycling road), 3x Harrie Lavreysen (track cycling team sprint, sprint and keirin), Mathieu van der Poel (mtb), field hockey women, Kiran Badloe (sailing RS:X) and a rowing boat.

 

Wishful thinking, I know! With a thread like this, I just can't wait for the games to start.

[Andry84 106]

I try with Italy

 

Archery: 0 (chance with Nespoli in individual and mixed team) 

Athletics 0-1  best chance Tamberi, small chance in 20 km race walking

Boxing : 1  i think 1 girl could take it

Canoeing sprint: 0 (small chances for k2 1000)

Cycling MTB: 0 (small chance for men) 

Cycling road 1-2 : best chance Gannain ITT and Longo Borghini in women

Cycling track 2-3 :  men team pursuit and omnium women, chance also in women madison

Fencing 4-6:  individual foil men, team foil women, team men epee, team men sarbre, individual women epee

Gymnastic 1:  best chance is Lodadio men rings, very slim chance for girls 

Rhythmics 0: i don't think the medal will arrive but the Italian girls have chance in groups

Judo 1 : best chance are Lombardo and Giuffrida, then we have some good outsiders. 

Karate 2-3 : Busà, Bottaro, Crescenzo, Semeraro (if qualifies), Busato are all medal contenders. 

Rowing 3: quadruple, 2-, 2xpl, 4-   (3 of these must take medal) 

Sailing 1 : Nacra 17 the best chance, very good outsiders both 470 and both Rsx

Shooting 3 : women trap, mixed trap and 1 surprising medal in pistol

Sport climbing 0 : i don't think in medals but Rogora can go for a top 8

Swimming 5-6 : 2 from Paltrinieri, 1 from Quadarella, 1 from Detti, 1 from breastroke, 1 from Bruni 10km

Taekwondo: 1 Dell'aquila 

Tennis 0 : i don't think the medal is possible but this is definitely the best moment in last 40 years for men tennis, probably the worst for women. 

Volleyball: 1 women team

Waterpolo 0 : i don't think in medal but our team will be competitive for sure. 

Weightlifting 0 : I would never have thought to speak about weightlifting in medal projections in my life and I don't think the medal will come, but if Pizzolato repeats 370 kg it will be a medal, also Zanni will go for a top 6.

Wrestling 1 : ok, Chamizo. 

 

I think it's time to reach and try to go over the 30 medals, the big problem will be the gold medals, I don't see many of them.