Winter Olympic Games Beijing 2022 Early Qualification Predictions

[mrv86 3,265]

3 hours ago, heywoodu said:

Any reason for that? I've heard German Madrazo's name quite often in the past few years, part of the infamous Project Bogota to qualify for Pyeongchang, did he grow his participation into some attention for the sport?  

Well, he received a lot of publicity after he competed at Pyeongchang, and some people started training, aiming to compete at the Olympics. Between late 2018 - early2020, between 3-5 skiers, a woman included, managed to attend cross country competitions in USA, Canada and even Finland, and this year finally one of them finished with less than 300 points in one of them.

According to Chef of Mission, they will support cross country skiers all through the qualification period (as well as the alpine skiers and our skaters), so they can obtain a quota.

I know Mexico is far from expecting a medal at the Winter Games in the next 20 years at least, but I think establishing a small group of athletes capable of fighting for a spot is worth it.

[heywoodu 16,460]

2 hours ago, mrv86 said:

I know Mexico is far from expecting a medal at the Winter Games in the next 20 years at least, but I think establishing a small group of athletes capable of fighting for a spot is worth it.

As arguably the world's leading non-Brazilian follower of Brazilian women's cross-country, I could not agree more with this  

[JoshMartini007 2,861]

Here's my simulation of the number of athletes for each country. Note I did not take into account injuries (or people missing out due to COVID) and potential athletes that will reactivate themselves during the 2021-2022 season (since I have no information on them). In total 91 nations will participate. Let's see how far off I am in 2022.

 

Albania - 1

American Samoa - 1

Andorra - 5

Argentina - 9

Armenia - 4

Australia - 34

Austria - 110

Azerbaijan - 3

Belarus - 38

Belgium - 18

Bolivia - 2

Bosnia and Herzegovina - 5

Brazil - 8

Bulgaria - 15

Canada - 206

Cayman Islands - 1

Chile - 3

China - 167

Colombia - 1

Croatia - 9

Cyprus - 1

Czech Republic - 114

Denmark - 3

Ecuador - 2

Estonia - 26

Finland - 98

France - 97

Georgia - 7

Germany - 181

Great Britain - 62

Greece - 5

Haiti - 1

Hong Kong - 3

Hungary - 13

Iceland - 5

Iran - 4

Ireland - 4

Israel - 4

Italy - 129

Jamaica - 1

Japan - 134

Kazakhstan - 31

Kenya - 1

Kosovo - 1

Kyrgyzstan - 1

Latvia - 61

Lebanon - 3

Liechtenstein - 6

Lithuania - 12

Luxembourg

Madagascar - 1

Malaysia - 2

Malta - 1

Mexico - 2

Moldova - 5

Monaco - 6

Mongolia - 2

Montenegro - 3

Morocco - 1

Netherlands - 42

New Zealand - 16

Nigeria - 2

North Korea - 2

North Macedonia - 3

Norway - 115

Pakistan - 2

Peru - 2

Philippines - 1

Poland - 51

Portugal - 2

Puerto Rico - 1

Romania - 21

Russia - 209

San Marino - 1

Serbia - 5

Slovakia - 48

Slovenia - 45

South Africa - 1

South Korea - 69

Spain - 13

Sweden - 117

Switzerland - 178

Chinese Taipei - 3

Thailand - 4

Timor-Leste - 1

Trinidad and Tobago - 1

Turkey - 6

Ukraine - 41

United States - 219

Uzbekistan - 1

Virgin Islands - 1

[rafalgorka 1,821]

46 minutes ago, JoshMartini007 said:

Here's my simulation of the number of athletes for each country. Note I did not take into account injuries (or people missing out due to COVID) and potential athletes that will reactivate themselves during the 2021-2022 season (since I have no information on them). In total 91 nations will participate. Let's see how far off I am in 2022.

 

 

 

Great job. Thank you!!!

 

Could you please share some details - how did you make this simulation? E.g. what 51 people (who and in which sports/events will represent POL?) ???

[hckošice 16,613]

50 minutes ago, JoshMartini007 said:

Slovakia - 48

may god hear you ! because that could only mean one thing, a very very veeery good thing happened at the end of august

[Laraja 1,522]

I am not a big fan of winter sports, but I will try...

 

 

 Brazil

Team Size Prediction for Winter Olympic Games 2022 Beijing

 

Ski Sports

 

Alpine Skiing  (2) - Usually we have at least one man and one woman competing. There is a guy with some potential.

 

Cross Country Skiing  (2) - Also, usually a man and a woman.

 

Ski Jumping  (0) - No way

Nordic Combined  (0) - No way

Freestyle Skiing  (0) - we had two athletes training for this sport for Sochi, but a terrible accident happened with one of them.

 

I think the other athlete participated at 2018, but I am not sure.

 

I dont know how it is now.

 

Snowboarding  (1) - Isabel retired, we have a young guy on cross. I dont know if he will be able to qualify for this Olympic.

 

Biathlon  (0) - I am not sure, but I believe that we dont have big chances here.

 

 

Skating Sports

 

Speed Skating  (0) - I dont know any athlete

Short Track Speed Skating  (0) - I dont know any athlete

Figure Skating  (1) - Isadora Willians probably will qualify again.

 

 

Sleigh Sports

 

Luge  (0) - I dont know any athlete

Skeleton  (1) - Nicole is in a great performance.

Bobsleigh  (5) - 1 women's monobob and I am expecting 4-man

 

 

Team Sports

 

Curling  (0) - we love curling here, but no way hahaha

Ice Hockey  (0) - we dont even qualify in Field Hockey hahaha

 

 

 

Total Optimistic Prediction  -  (12)

Total Pessimistic Prediction  - (5)

 

Total Realistic Prediction  -  (7)

[JoshMartini007 2,861]

1 hour ago, rafalgorka said:

Great job. Thank you!!!

 

Could you please share some details - how did you make this simulation? E.g. what 51 people (who and in which sports/events will represent POL?) ???

I mostly looked at recent results and compared it to the sport's qualification system. I didn't keep tabs on specific people since for some sports it's done through nation rankings (and the project was ambitious enough already). I also assumed every nation will accept all their quotas (which likely won't happen).

 

For Poland the sport breakdown is...

 

Alpine Skiing - 3

Biathlon - 8

Cross-country Skiing - 7

Figure Skating - 2

Luge - 4

Nordic Combined - 4

Short Track Speed Skating - 4

Ski Jumping - 7

Snowboarding - 3

Speed Skating - 9

[rybak 3,431]

1 hour ago, JoshMartini007 said:

I mostly looked at recent results and compared it to the sport's qualification system. I didn't keep tabs on specific people since for some sports it's done through nation rankings (and the project was ambitious enough already). I also assumed every nation will accept all their quotas (which likely won't happen).

 

For Poland the sport breakdown is...

 

Alpine Skiing - 3

Biathlon - 8

Cross-country Skiing - 7

Figure Skating - 2

Luge - 4

Nordic Combined - 4

Short Track Speed Skating - 4

Ski Jumping - 7

Snowboarding - 3

Speed Skating - 9

No chance. I will be happy if just 1 athlete will qualify, most of our guys retired two seasons ago.

[JoshMartini007 2,861]

43 minutes ago, rybak said:

No chance. I will be happy if just 1 athlete will qualify, most of our guys retired two seasons ago.

In the qualification document, they wanted 10 nations to participate in the team event (they reserved quotas to ensure that) so Poland benefited from that. It's either them or Estonia, the depth in Nordic Combined is very shallow.

[intoronto 6,891]

4 hours ago, JoshMartini007 said:

Here's my simulation of the number of athletes for each country. Note I did not take into account injuries (or people missing out due to COVID) and potential athletes that will reactivate themselves during the 2021-2022 season (since I have no information on them). In total 91 nations will participate. Let's see how far off I am in 2022.

 

Azerbaijan - 3

Cayman Islands - 1

Colombia - 1

Ecuador - 2

Jamaica - 1

Madagascar - 1

Malaysia - 2

Moldova - 5

Monaco - 6

Nigeria - 2

 

Great job!

Can you elaborate on these specific countries please, as in which sports?