Nations that can win their first Olympic medal at the Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024

[SalamAkhi 317]

 Thea Lafond is a triple-jumper.

 

Unequal chances in this lot :

 

 also has Lana Pudar (Women's 100/200m Butterfly) and, though a long shot now, Amel Tuka (Men's 800m). 

 is a fair bet. Let's see how Alfred does in Budapest first. 

 is a decent one. Probably less likely now than it was a few years back but McMaster remains one of the best. Problems are : he's struggling with injuries, and the competition will not allow him any leeway.

 alright. But Gega is not that young though she's at her best at the moment. Women's 3000m steeple is usually quite open when it comes to big competitions, but she'll have a hard time getting a medal. 

 

Others are highly unlikely. 

[Cinnamon Bun 896]

1 hour ago, heywoodu said:

Bolivia, although highly unrealistic, would be cool, since one can pretty safely call them one of the worst performing countries in the world in the entire Olympic history (I'd say only Bangladesh is worse)  

 

Probably most of them won't win a medal, since none of the countries really have a favourite, but who knows, it'd always be good to see a new country with a medal  

I wanted to make it to 10, so around half of them are extremely unrealistic. I'd say only 4 of them have a good chance:  (Julien Alfred has been performing really well of late),  (Thea Lafond can pull it out the bag on her day),  (Emmanuel Matadi is another who can be a serious challenger on his day),  (probably the most likely of them all, it'd be a disappointment is Kyron McMaster didn't claim an Olympic medal in his career). After that, you could only really lay claim to  and Refugee Olympic Team with how random Taekwondo is.  

[Cinnamon Bun 896]

10 minutes ago, SalamAkhi said:

 Thea Lafond is a triple-jumper.

 

Unequal chances in this lot :

 

 also has Lana Pudar (Women's 100/200m Butterfly) and, though a long shot now, Amel Tuka (Men's 800m). 

 is a fair bet. Let's see how Alfred does in Budapest first. 

 is a decent one. Probably less likely now than it was a few years back but McMaster remains one of the best. Problems are : he's struggling with injuries, and the competition will not allow him any leeway.

 alright. But Gega is not that young though she's at her best at the moment. Women's 3000m steeple is usually quite open when it comes to big competitions, but she'll have a hard time getting a medal. 

 

Others are highly unlikely. 

Completely forgot about Pudar, probably their best Olympic talent ever - and young too.  

[MHSN 3,619]

Albania now has a hired mercenary Russian wrestler who won the World Championship gold medal last year in Zelimkhan Abakarov and will be a favorite for medal in Paris. still he is not a clear top 3 in the world, nothing is guaranteed for him, he can easily lose to another solid wrestler in the first round but I believe he has a good chance to at least win a medal, even gold is within his reach.

 

what a proud moment for Albania if he wins a medal. years of hard work will finally be rewarded.

[Dragon 1,844]

12 hours ago, Cinnamon Bun said:

Ah, didn't realise, Weightlifting I assume?  

Finished  4th in 2008 but the Russian and Kazakhstani both got caught doping

[Cinnamon Bun 896]

Are there any other countries or athletes yet to be stated that are worth mentioning?  

[Dragon 1,844]

12 minutes ago, Cinnamon Bun said:

Are there any other countries or athletes yet to be stated that are worth mentioning?  

Andorra in canoe slalom?  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mònica_Dòria

Edited February 8, 2023 by Dragon

[Cinnamon Bun 896]

I'll keep track here of any athletes from medalless countries that crop up and have a decent chance of medalling over the course of the qualification period.  

[Makedonas 2,155]

On 2/7/2023 at 5:01 PM, Cinnamon Bun said:

Vaguely recall this being brought up after Tokyo, but feel it needs to become relevant again with most qualification windows getting underway. I believe the following nations/teams have a decent shot at winning their first medal: 

 

 (Men's Taekwondo)   (Women's 3000m Steeplechase)  (Women's Long Jump) (Women's 100m) (Men's Singles Tennis) (Men's and Women's Marathon)  (Men's 100m)  (Women's 100m + 200m) (Men's 400m Hurdles) Refugee Olympic Team (Women's Taekwondo).  

Bolivia in men's tennis definitely does not have a "decent shot" at winning a medal, sorry.

 

Also, Albania got 4th place in men's weightlifting in Tokyo, I'm surprised no one mentioned that for Paris? Or maybe one of the medal winners will get caught doping and the Albanian guy will get promoted to bronze, that honestly might be the most likely first medal for Albania knowing how the sport of weightlifting goes 

[hckošice 14,829]

2 hours ago, Makedonas said:

 

Also, Albania got 4th place in men's weightlifting in Tokyo, I'm surprised no one mentioned that for Paris? Or maybe one of the medal winners will get caught doping and the Albanian guy will get promoted to bronze, that honestly might be the most likely first medal for Albania knowing how the sport of weightlifting goes 

wasn´t he the guy whose team didn´t notice the Indonesian from group B and on the last C&J attempt playing for a bronze medal they put a kilo less than they should have on the bar ?