Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024 Medal Predictions

[Epic Failure 355]

44 minutes ago, Dragon said:

Gracenote predictions are usually good but they do have some weaknesses.

They underestimate good performances by sportspeople breaking through to top level competition at a young age and, where certain parts of the world have a big advantage over other continents, they rely too much on older global results over newer continental results

They also have always seemed very analytical to me, with little regard for the small nuances of sport.

 

Their 1500m prediction is a classic example of that - they are predicting Jakob for gold (presumably), based on a mix of the last Olympics and his fast times on the circuit.

 

But the last 2 WCs have obviously been won by Brits, beating him in essentially the same way.

 

I wouldn't personally be making him favourite for Gold right now. Statistically, sure. But not on nuance.

 

Then there's things like British Cycling's tactics about Olympics - which has been consistent since about 2009! They tend to dip somewhat in non-Olympic years and then bring out their super round wheels for the Games.

[Joshi 123]

6 hours ago, Rafa Maciel said:

 Medal Projection 100 days out from Paris:

 

Gold Medalists:

Lisa Carrington - Canoe Sprint K1 500m

Ellesse Andrews - Track Cycling Keirin

Men's Rugby Sevens

Women's Rugby Sevens

 

 

Silver Medalists:

Canoe Sprint - Women's K4 500m 

Emma Twigg - Rowing Single Sculls

Erika Fairweather - Swimming 400m Freestyle

Lewis Clareburt - Swimming 400m Individual Medley

 

 

Bronze Medalists:

Tom Walsh - Shot Put

Track Cycling Women's Team Pursuit

Dylan Schmidt - Trampoline

 

Pretty fair reflection on NZs past championship results. But I guess what gracenote can't forsee is in rowing in particular NZ will be welcoming back 10 olympic medalists from the US College system back into the scene, and have substantially already bolstered quite a number of crews. Im expecting at least 4 medals from the womens canoe sprint squad. Emma Fairweather would be lucky to medal at the Olympics, same with Dylan Schmidt. Not convinced about men's team winning 7s gold. Cycling for NZ is too hit and miss who knows what they'll do.

[Rafa Maciel 1,594]

16 minutes ago, Joshi said:

Pretty fair reflection on NZs past championship results. But I guess what gracenote can't forsee is in rowing in particular NZ will be welcoming back 10 olympic medalists from the US College system back into the scene, and have substantially already bolstered quite a number of crews. Im expecting at least 4 medals from the womens canoe sprint squad. Emma Fairweather would be lucky to medal at the Olympics, same with Dylan Schmidt. Not convinced about men's team winning 7s gold. Cycling for NZ is too hit and miss who knows what they'll do.

I'd be surprised if New Zealand got a big boost in the rowing but we won't really know what their form is like until we get to the Lucerne World Cup next month.

 

The big surprise from my perspective, was in track cycling and the women's team pursuit down in silver. Given they've been the only nation that has shown consistent ability to take the challenge to GB, I'd have expected them to be either projected for gold or silver. 

[dodge 1,024]

Their medal predications for  

 

Gold

McCarthy/O’Donovan - Lightweight double sculls Rowing

Rhys McClenaghan - pommel gymnastics 

 

Silver

Daniel Wiffen - 800m free swimming

Cian O’Connor - showjumping

Kelly Harrington - 60kg boxing

 

Bronze

Daniel Wiffen - 1500m free swimming

Rory McIlroy - golf

[Art Art 50]

4 hours ago, Faramir said:

Nope, you have to pay them to get details of a country.

How much does it cost?

[Josh 10,512]

6 hours ago, AlexMunegu59 said:

 Gold Medal Projection 100 days out from Paris

 

Basketball 3x3 : Équipe féminine

Skateboard : Vincent Milou (street hommes)

Natation : Maxime Grousset (100 m papillon hommes)

 

First point, I hope not 

 

In men’s street, Milou isn’t even favoured over his compatriot Giraud.

 

For Grousset, it depends on Dressel/Milak, and if they’re back at their Tokyo 2020 form. Right now, the latter are probably favoured with the solid in season times they’ve been putting up recently. 

 

Everything else I agree with. 

[phelps 7,675]

30 minutes ago, Josh said:

First point, I hope not 

 

In men’s street, Milou isn’t even favoured over his compatriot Giraud.

 

For Grousset, it depends on Dressel/Milak, and if they’re back at their Tokyo 2020 form. Right now, the latter are probably favoured with the solid in season times they’ve been putting up recently. 

 

Everything else I agree with. 

 Ponti is going to outswim all of them 

[Joshi 123]

59 minutes ago, Rafa Maciel said:

I'd be surprised if New Zealand got a big boost in the rowing but we won't really know what their form is like until we get to the Lucerne World Cup next month.

 

The big surprise from my perspective, was in track cycling and the women's team pursuit down in silver. Given they've been the only nation that has shown consistent ability to take the challenge to GB, I'd have expected them to be either projected for gold or silver. 

Well NZ has had famines in the last few olympics in cycling considering the amount of talent they have. But must say we haven't come across so much talent particularly in women's endurance before. But I still lack confidence in them because just like rowing you can't gauge anything on past performance unless you were Hamish Bond and Eric Murray who practically forced out rival athletes from other nations to seek other boats. Because the gold was literally there's already.

[Topicmaster1010 4,179]

Gracenote Medal Predictions for  Canada (partial) 

 

Gold:

• Summer McIntosh - Swimming - W 400m Individual Medley
• Summer McIntosh - Swimming - W 200m Butterfly
• Marco Arop - Athletics - M 800m
• Pierce Lepage - Athletics - Decathlon
• Christa Deguchi - Judo - W 57kg
• Phil Wizard - Breaking - B-Boys

 

Silver:

• Katie Vincent - Canoe Sprint - W C-1 200m
• Canada - Canoe Sprint - W C-2 500m
• Damian Warner - Athletics - Decathlon
• Camryn Rogers - Athletics - W Hammer Throw

 

Bronze:

• Summer McIntosh - Swimming - W 200m Individual Medley
• Canada - Swimming - W 4x100m Freestyle Relay
• Canada - Swimming - W 4x100m Medley Relay
• Maggie Mac Neil - Swimming - W 100m Butterfly
• Ethan Katzberg - Athletics - M Hammer Throw
• Sarah Mitton - Athletics - W Shot Put
• Canada - Athletics - M 4x100m Relay

 

Other notes:

• No medal for McIntosh in the 400 free
• No individual medals for De Grasse or Oleksiak
• No medals in basketball and football

[Topicmaster1010 4,179]

8 hours ago, Dkats said:

And who’s predicted for gold in the woman’s 200m if not MOC or titmus 🧐🧐

Got to be Haughey since McIntosh isn't projected for a medal. Probably because of her 2024 world championship title.