Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024 Medal Predictions

[LDOG 2,467]

My team sport predictions with tiers (I prefer doing it this way instead of just handing out G, S & B):

 

I'll put an * next to not already qualified teams (in some cases I'll be considering the chances of two teams that can't both qualify, eg. Slovenia and Greece in men's basketball).

 

These are tiers that grade the teams according to my perception of their chances to win a medal (ANY medal, not just gold). Though if I rate a team in the highest tier ("very likely to win a medal") it also means they're the main gold medal favorite for me.

If you see that a qualified team is not included in any tier then it means I believe the medal chances of that team are rather marginal.

 

I opted to skip 3x3 predictions cuz my knowledge is not deep enough (I follow the results but I'm not too aware about roster changes from tournament to tournament and such).

 

Tiers...

 

Tier 1 - Very Likely to win a medal

 

Tier 2 - Likely to win a medal

 

Tier 3 - In contention for a medal

 

Tier 4 - Outside chance of a medal

 

 

Spoiler

Men's Football

 

Tier 1: France

Tier 2: Brazil*

Tier 3: Argentina*, Uruguay*, Japan*, Spain, All african teams.

TIer 4: Ukraine, USA

 

Women's Football

 

Tier 1: -

Tier 2: USA, Spain*

Tier 3: France, Netherlands*, Germany*, Japan*

Tier 4: Australia*

 

Men's Basketball

 

Tier 1: USA

Tier 2: Canada

Tier 3: France, Spain*, Germany, Serbia

Tier 4: Australia, Greece*, Slovenia*

 

Women's Basketball

 

Tier 1: USA

Tier 2: -

Tier 3: Australia*, Canada*, China*, France, Serbia*, Spain*

Tier 4: Japan*

 

Men's Handball

 

Tier 1: France, Denmark

Tier 2: -

Tier 3: Spain*, Sweden*

Tier 4: Croatia*, Egypt*, Germany*, Hungary*, Norway*

 

Women's Handball

 

Tier 1: -

Tier 2: France, Norway

Tier 3: Denmark, Montenegro*, Netherlands*, Sweden*

Tier 4: Germany*, Hungary*

 

Men's Hockey

 

Tier 1: -

Tier 2: Belgium*, Germany*, Netherlands

Tier 3: Australia, GB*

Tier 4: India, Spain*

 

Women's Hockey

 

Tier 1: Netherlands

Tier 2: -

Tier 3: Argentina, Australia, Belgium*, Germany*

Tier 4: GB*

 

Men's Rugby Sevens

 

Tier 1: -

Tier 2: New Zealand

Tier 3: Argentina, Fiji, France, South Africa*

Tier 4: Australia, Ireland, Samoa

 

Women's Rugby Sevens

 

Tier 1: Australia, New Zealand

Tier 2: -

Tier 3: France, USA

Tier 4: Canada, Fiji, Ireland

 

Men's Volleyball

 

Tier 1: -

Tier 2: Poland

Tier 3: Brazil, France, Italy*, USA

Tier 4: Japan

 

Women's Volleyball

 

Tier 1: -

Tier 2: Turkey

Tier 3: Brazil, China*, Italy*, Serbia, USA

Tier 4: Poland

 

Men's Water Polo

 

Tier 1: -

Tier 2: Spain*

Tier 3: Greece, Hungary, Italy*, Serbia*

Tier 4: Croatia*, Montenegro*

 

Women's Water Polo

 

Tier 1: USA

Tier 2: -

Tier 3: Australia, Hungary*, Italy*, Netherlands, Spain

Tier 4: Greece*

 

 

Edited December 30, 2023 by LDOG

[Josh 11,497]

Good list, I would also add Canada as an outside chance in women’s football. 

[rajiv 31]

5 hours ago, Josh said:

Good list, I would also add Canada as an outside chance in women’s football. 

Is there any event where you don't think Canada is an outside chance of a medal?

[Josh 11,497]

7 hours ago, rajiv said:

Is there any event where you don't think Canada is an outside chance of a medal?

There’s hundreds of them. I could name them all, but that would take up way too much time. 
 

IMO Canada has medal chances in all sports except rhythmic gymnastics, sport climbing, canoe slalom, field hockey, volleyball, waterpolo, artistic swimming, badminton, table tennis, modern pentathlon, shooting and handball, triathlon. (I might be missing some, but these are the ones I can think of off the top of my head)

[Dragon 2,026]

Speaking as a Brit with Canadian ancestry (unlikely I know but true) any Canadian Olympic success is fine by me...

[Rafa Maciel 1,658]

 Nielsen's Gracenote Virtual Medal Table - January 2024 

 

 

At the 6-month countdown to Paris, Gracenote have released their updated virtual medal table:

 

NOC	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Total	Change Since Last Release
	37	46	46	129	Up 3 medals overall - 2 additional silver and 1 additional bronze
	35	28	22	85	Up 7 medals in overall - 3 additional silver and 4 additional bronze.
	26	16	11	53	Down 1 medal overall - 1 gold downgraded to silver and 1 bronze lost.
	17	22	25	64	Down 2 silver medals offset by 1 additional bronze for overall drop of 1 medal in total.
	17	15	24	56	Down 2 medals in total - 1 additional silver medal gained offset by drop of 3 bronze medals.
	16	9	10	35	Down 2 medals in total - dropping 1 silver and 1 bronze medal.
	15	17	16	48	Down 2 medals in total - dropping 2 bronze medals.
	13	12	22	47	Down 1 medal in total - 2 silver medals dropped offset by an additional bronze medal.
	10	14	15	39	Up 2 medals overall - 1 additional silver and 1 additional bronze.
	7	6	10	23	Moves into top ten (replaces Canada)

 

[Rafa Maciel 1,658]

Gracenote's gold medal projections for  seem uncontroversial (although the keirin is always a bit of a lottery):

 

Men's Rugby 7's Team

Women's Rugby 7's Team

Women's Keirin: Ellesse Andrews

Canoe Sprint - Women's K1 500m: Lisa Carrington

 

 

[Sindo 1,651]

5 minutes ago, Rafa Maciel said:

 Nielsen's Gracenote Virtual Medal Table - January 2024 

 

 

At the 6-month countdown to Paris, Gracenote have released their updated virtual medal table:

 

NOC	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Total	Change Since Last Release
	37	46	46	129	Up 3 medals overall - 2 additional silver and 1 additional bronze
	35	28	22	85	Up 7 medals in overall - 3 additional silver and 4 additional bronze.
	26	16	11	53	Down 1 medal overall - 1 gold downgraded to silver and 1 bronze lost.
	17	22	25	64	Down 2 silver medals offset by 1 additional bronze for overall drop of 1 medal in total.
	17	15	24	56	Down 2 medals in total - 1 additional silver medal gained offset by drop of 3 bronze medals.
	16	9	10	35	Down 2 medals in total - dropping 1 silver and 1 bronze medal.
	15	17	16	48	Down 2 medals in total - dropping 2 bronze medals.
	13	12	22	47	Down 1 medal in total - 2 silver medals dropped offset by an additional bronze medal.
	10	14	15	39	Up 2 medals overall - 1 additional silver and 1 additional bronze.
	7	6	10	23	Moves into top ten (replaces Canada)

 

Comparing to our Latest World Championships Medal Count, France has 13 more gold medals, which could be explainable with the host country advantage. But GBR has 25 gold medals in our table and only 17 in Gracenote table, that's a huge gap

[Prakash_k 68]

What about neutral athletes from 🇷🇺 and 🇧🇾 ?

[Rafa Maciel 1,658]

12 minutes ago, Prakash_k said:

What about neutral athletes from 🇷🇺 and 🇧🇾 ?

Gracenote took the decision not to include them in the analysis because they have been absent from international competition so they couldn't be factored into their model.