Ireland Predictions for Paris 2024 Road to Paris 2024

[Oldira 76]

19 hours ago, Ogreman said:

Bro, Get your hopes up for the world cup series qualifiers. There are a couple like pommel and rings where the standard required to qualify will be ridiculously high but some of them are definitely attainable. Like I wouldn't pick us to get any of them but we will be in the shake up. Also on review I think Russia won't be allowed at Europeans so that all-around quota is not quite as but still mostly out of the question. There are five or so gymnasts between Halle Hilton and a reallocated quota. It's not impossible if some of them qualify through other means but Hilton getting an actually quota herself is much more likely than picking up a reallocated one.

 

We seem to be looking at different badminton rankings but I'll believe you and yeah I probably should have put Rachael Darragh down as a safe qualifier.

 

The men’s doubles were in a qualifying spot as recent as October yet despite seeming to be doing well in getting to QF of tournaments fell out of the top 16. 

[mattiekav119 13]

Great performances by both teams at the Perth 7s.
 

Hopefully can develop some consistency over the season and translate it into a good performance in Paris!

 

Definite medal contenders now in both - the draw will be vital.

[Ogreman 209]

Just posting a slight update on my qualification projections from a few weeks ago before diving qualification starts as the hockey teams were kinding throwing the numbers of the probabilistic approach off. 139 would have been the 22nd largest team in Tokyo and with basically no Russia it might not be that unrealistic that our team size for Paris could be in the top 20.

 

My projection	Probabalistic E(q)	Floor	Ceiling
139	138.7	127.75	147.15

[Ogreman 209]

So it is quite late in the qualifying process but I did do a quick update of my qualifying projections. We are down significantly since 3 months ago but still on track for over 130 which is even accounting for qualifying an extra sevens team would still be an improvement on Tokyo so still a good result even if it is not as good as it looked like it could have been a couple of months ago.

 

	Very unlikely qualifers (<5%)	In with a chance (5-35%)	Fifty-fifty (35-65%)	Likely qualifers(>65%)	Safe qualifiers (>90%)	My picks	Already qualified	Total
Athletics	28	9	5	6	4	13	13	24
Badminton	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	2
Boxing	1	1	1	4	0	4	6	10
Canoe- slalom	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	3
Canoe- sprint	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cycling- Mountain Biking	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cycling- Road	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	3
Cycling- Track	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	4
Diving	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1
Equestrian	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	7
Field Hockey	0	0	0	0	0	0	16	16
Golf	0	0	0	0	4	4	0	4
Gymnastics artistic	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
Judo	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Modern Pentathlon	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Rowing	4	1	0	1	4	5	12	17
Rugby Sevens	0	0	0	0	0	0	24	24
Sailing	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	4
Shooting	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Swimming	7	0	4	3	1	5	5	10
Taekwondo	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
Triathlon	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Weightlifting	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	52	12	10	15	14	31	100	133

My projection	Probabalistic E(q)	Floor	Ceiling
133	131.0	125.75	136.35

It is very possible I have made a mistake here at some point especially in the more fringe sport where I wasn't that thorough so it is possible that I have included athletes that no longer have any chance of qualifying or maybe even underestimated somebody's chances. Not sure how useful the probabilistic stuff is at this point in the process but I'll include it.