Ireland Predictions for Paris 2024

[Oldira 88]

19 hours ago, Ogreman said:

Bro, Get your hopes up for the world cup series qualifiers. There are a couple like pommel and rings where the standard required to qualify will be ridiculously high but some of them are definitely attainable. Like I wouldn't pick us to get any of them but we will be in the shake up. Also on review I think Russia won't be allowed at Europeans so that all-around quota is not quite as but still mostly out of the question. There are five or so gymnasts between Halle Hilton and a reallocated quota. It's not impossible if some of them qualify through other means but Hilton getting an actually quota herself is much more likely than picking up a reallocated one.

 

We seem to be looking at different badminton rankings but I'll believe you and yeah I probably should have put Rachael Darragh down as a safe qualifier.

 

The men’s doubles were in a qualifying spot as recent as October yet despite seeming to be doing well in getting to QF of tournaments fell out of the top 16. 

[mattiekav119 14]

Great performances by both teams at the Perth 7s.
 

Hopefully can develop some consistency over the season and translate it into a good performance in Paris!

 

Definite medal contenders now in both - the draw will be vital.

[Ogreman 379]

Just posting a slight update on my qualification projections from a few weeks ago before diving qualification starts as the hockey teams were kinding throwing the numbers of the probabilistic approach off. 139 would have been the 22nd largest team in Tokyo and with basically no Russia it might not be that unrealistic that our team size for Paris could be in the top 20.

 

My projection	Probabalistic E(q)	Floor	Ceiling
139	138.7	127.75	147.15

[Ogreman 379]

So it is quite late in the qualifying process but I did do a quick update of my qualifying projections. We are down significantly since 3 months ago but still on track for over 130 which is even accounting for qualifying an extra sevens team would still be an improvement on Tokyo so still a good result even if it is not as good as it looked like it could have been a couple of months ago.

 

	Very unlikely qualifers (<5%)	In with a chance (5-35%)	Fifty-fifty (35-65%)	Likely qualifers(>65%)	Safe qualifiers (>90%)	My picks	Already qualified	Total
Athletics	28	9	5	6	4	13	13	24
Badminton	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	2
Boxing	1	1	1	4	0	4	6	10
Canoe- slalom	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	3
Canoe- sprint	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cycling- Mountain Biking	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cycling- Road	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	3
Cycling- Track	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	4
Diving	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1
Equestrian	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	7
Field Hockey	0	0	0	0	0	0	16	16
Golf	0	0	0	0	4	4	0	4
Gymnastics artistic	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
Judo	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Modern Pentathlon	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Rowing	4	1	0	1	4	5	12	17
Rugby Sevens	0	0	0	0	0	0	24	24
Sailing	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	4
Shooting	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Swimming	7	0	4	3	1	5	5	10
Taekwondo	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
Triathlon	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Weightlifting	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	52	12	10	15	14	31	100	133

My projection	Probabalistic E(q)	Floor	Ceiling
133	131.0	125.75	136.35

It is very possible I have made a mistake here at some point especially in the more fringe sport where I wasn't that thorough so it is possible that I have included athletes that no longer have any chance of qualifying or maybe even underestimated somebody's chances. Not sure how useful the probabilistic stuff is at this point in the process but I'll include it.

[Cosmo Kramer 24]

Great work Ogreman, 133 was spot on more than two months out, and the individual sport predictions weren't far off either. The out of the blue one was the fourth canoe slalom qualifier, but it brought the total number nicely into line with the prediction.

 

Looking forward to your next spreadsheet telling us how many medals we're going to win!

[Ogreman 379]

My Final thoughts on Ireland’s medal prospects.

 

So first of all, I thought it was interesting that everyone other than me had settled on expecting a figure of 5-7 medals, which look in historical is as good as our best ever Olympics but I do think undersells the quality of this Olympic team. So what I thought was interesting is that despite me being a lot higher on our medal hopes than others here we all generally seem to agree that we have mid 30s or so medal contenders. Now exactly how you define a contender is a bit ambiguous but I was interested to look at Tokyo and try to assess how many contenders countries had and what that translated to medal wise.

 

 

Now retrospectively defining contenders isn’t ideal particularly for sports I have very little knowledge of so there is a margin for error here but they should be similar to who we are now defining as contenders for Irelands. For example for Wrestling I just had a rule of if you medalled or lost a medal fight you were a contender and if not you weren’t so its not perfect but the error should cancel itself out ie. There are as many contenders included that weren't actually contenders as actual contenders that i didn't include. I left out the top 10 countries by number of athetes (and for some reason Brazil, I didn’t have that strict a rule.) as obviously the likes of the USA don’t have a skewed list of contenders as only their best athletes actually get to go to the Olympics. (Also it would have taken ages). I also didn’t include countries without at least 18 or so athletes but I did include countries that had chances but didn’t win any medals.

 

 

I can post the entire list of the 65 countries or so I looked at but the gist of it is that 40% of who I retrospectively defined as a contender for Tokyo were medallists. Now I do accept that these numbers are probably skewed a bit by countries that are strong in one/ two specific sports and therefore have a higher contenders to medal ratios. Just looking at Cuba (wrestling, boxing, Jumping events), Kenya, Ethiopia (distance running), Jamaica (Sprinting), and Georgia (Wrestling, Weightlifting). They do have a slightly higher medal to contender ratio but only marginally at 42%.

 

Anyway I accept there may be flaws with looking too generally so just looking at the 8 countries that profile as similarly to Ireland’s squad for Paris. (133 athletes 33-38 or so contenders)

Country	Athletes	Medals	Contenders
Hungary	169	20	41
New Zealand	220	20	40
Sweden	136	9	33
Switzerland	107	13	33
Belgium	123	7	30
Denmark	108	11	29
Ireland	116	4	26
Czechia	115	11	26

 

Now first thing that stands out is that we underperformed in Tokyo but we already knew that.

 

So just looking at these 8 countries from Tokyo, 36.8% of these contenders medalled in Tokyo. I believe the average number of contenders listed by myself, Dodge, and Cosmo a couple of months ago was 35.5 which would mean that this analysis would give us an expected medal total of 13. Now I accept that this analysis lacks nuance but like the primary reason this could be prove inaccurate is if Ireland’s medal contenders this time around were skewed towards being weaker medal contenders and I really don’t think that is true.

 

We have the 22^nd largest team and look I don’t have the knowledge to define contenders across the board for this Olympics for every country but I would assume we would rank similarly in terms of the number of contenders we have. So it is strange to me to not expect to at least finish in the 20s in the medal table/ number of total medals. That is not to say oh we are going to guaranteed to go and win 13, far from it. Just that I do think that our perceptions of medal chances are (understandably) quite influenced by past Irish failures and I think if a different country with a better history had this squad they would look at this squad and go easily 9/10 medals, how high into double figures can we go.

Now we don’t have that history and its very possible past failures bite us again but I think winning 6/7 medals is what that would be, I think that is the scenario where things go wrong. A lot more has to go wrong than right for us to not reach at least 8 or so medals.

Edited July 24, 2024 by Ogreman

[Ogreman 379]

Anyway final thoughts on our individual medal chances, Still going to use favourites, contenders and outside chances but I think I will split contenders into two tiers just to add a bit more nuance. Most of my thoughts haven’t really changed (Are on page 16 of the qualification tracker, for my own reference more than anything else).

 

Athletics

 

Favourites

 

Rhasidat Adeleke- So third fastest in the field this year but that’s not including Marileidy Paulino. Nikisha Pryce obviously seems to be in tremendous form but I would be skeptical of her ability to produce a mid-48 run in an Olympic final. Adeleke before last year had never failed to run her best time at a major championships so look it will be close but my take at this point is she wins silver behind Paulino with Kaczmarek in bronze.

 

Mixed 4*400- I don’t understand the talk of Adeleke skipping this at all, why would you give up a medal chance for possibly an ever so slightly better chance at winning a different medal. I mentioned this before but the time of 3:09.9 we ran at Europeans has never failed to medal at a major championships and O’Donnell, Barr and Adeleke in theory should all be in better form. We start as comfortable favourites for bronze and could push the Dutch for silver. I’m sure the likes of Italy, the Brits and Belgium won’t be too far behind but we are comfortable medal favourites here and have the margin for error needed to potentially rest Adeleke for the heats if need be although I would tempted to race her and tell her to take it easy.

 

Good Contenders

 

W4*400- So at Europeans we ran 3:24.8 with no Adeleke which is basically what we need to do to make the Olympic final and 3:22.7 with a very tired Adeleke which probably would leave us just outside the medals but is not far off at all, probably sub 3:22 needed to medal. Now Mawdlsey, Becker and Phil Healy have all had to have been in form from the jump this season so I would be a bit concerned that particularly Mawdsley who could easily race five times before the heats in this event if she makes the semis individually via the rep. There are reasons to be sceptical here but like it absolutely is a medal chance.

 

Not so good Contenders

 

Ciara Mageean- form doesn’t seem to be there. She has said in interviews that she isn’t sure why it isn’t there and it was only a couple of months ago that she won Europeans so we shouldn’t be too pessimistic here. I haven’t given up yet but in the past when she has had good major champs she has had very good buildups to those championships as well.

 

 

Expectations Athletics-  Hopefully Sarah Healy and maybe one other athlete can make a final. Coscoran, O’Sullivan or Lavin probably our best hopes there. While I am predicting we will win 2, any medal is a good result, 5/6 finals appearances would be satisfactory and 10 or so top 15s should probably be in and around the expectation for this team.

 

 

Badminton- Realistically just a couple of wins for Nhat.

 

Boxing

 

This will all change when the draw happens but.

 

Favourites

 

Kellie Harrington- seeding draw went badly with a likely quarter final fight against world silver medallist Angie Valdez and a potential Tokyo Olympic final rematch to come in the semis if she gets there. Kellie has basically never failed to produce when it counts so despite never looking in great shape during this Olympic cycle I do think she is the favourite for gold.

 

Aoife O’Rourke- Avoid another fight with Cindy Ngamba and this should be quite a safe bronze medal but I don’t see her beating Tammara Thibeault in a semi-final. This is either a disaster, bronze or gold. Those for me are the 3 scenarios here.

 

Contenders

 

Grainne Walsh - So 66kg is a weird bracket, there aren’t any easy draws but only Busenaz Surmeneli properly scares me and even she is beatable. Grainne Walsh looked convincing at the second world qualifier and I’m a lot higher than I was originally on her chances but I think when it comes down to it she will come up short against a counterpuncher.

 

Jude Gallagher- 50% chance of drawing Jahmal Harvey or Abdumalik Khalokov which would make things tough. While this is a tough division, there is the potential for a very straightforward draw regardless of whether he gets one or not he is in with a chance.

 

Daina Moorehouse-  Seeding is all over the place so that means potential for extremely good or bad draws. Moorehouse will give anyone a tough fight but her narrow losses at the first two qualifiers are probably how this is destined to go

 

Aidan Walsh- I think he is going to medal again. There just isn’t a single boxer in this draw that I wouldn’t go in to a fight against liking Aidan’s chances. This division is full of counterpunchers who aren’t as good at counterpunching as Aidan is. That said there are only 4/5 potential opponents I wouldn’t at least be nervous against and he will make it so nerve-wracking to watch.

 

Jack Marley- Jack had a good seeding draw and is in this tier as a result but the unseeded boxers are as good as the seeded ones so even in the best case scenario it would still be at least one tough fight but he has a genuine chance.

 

Not so good contenders-

 

Michaela Walsh- I’ve come around a bit on Michaela Walsh as when I was doing my rankings I generally didn’t read too much into athletes who qualified early and then had some strange losses to start 2024. There isn’t a potential easy draw here and as such I still don’t think she has a great path to medal here but I think she will get closer than I thought she would a month or two ago.

 

Outside chances

 

Dean Clancy, Jennifer Lehane- Clancy is fine, he is a decent boxer just hasn’t yet shown the ceiling to medal here. There is one easier seeding bracket though so there is at least the potential for a lucky draw. Women’s bantamweight is wide open so Lehane has a chance like. She is a tier below the big contenders but you never know.

 

Boxing expectations- For me 3 medals, Harrington, O’Rourke and 1 other provisionally  Aidan Walsh. The main goal for me for the squad is just win more fights more fights we are underdogs in than lose fights in which we are favourites which I will measure using my rankings. Obviously it is boxing so can be incredibly volatile, could be glorious and win 4/5 or we could win 0/1 but the expectation is 3.

 

 

Canoe-slalom

 

Hopefully Liam Jegou or Noel Hendrick can make a final and let see how the kayak cross goes. Don’t really have many expectations here but excited to watch it.

 

Cycling

 

Contenders- Lara Gillespie in the omnium, interesting that she is racing the madison as it might have made sense for us to try and have her as fresh as possible for the omnium, look it will be tough but it is nice chance to have in the back pocket for the last day of the games to keep us dreaming all the way through whether we are having a good games or a bad one.

 

Not so good contenders- Ben Healy was sick in the last week of the Tour so it is very hard to know what kind of legs he will show up with. If he has the legs he had in the first 2 weeks of the tour then I genuinely think he will at worst be in the shake up at the end, although his lack of a sprint could cost him but impossible to know how good his legs will be now.

 

Cycling expectations- guaranteed a top 10 in the team pursuit, making the top 8 would be a great result, hopefully we at least finish the madison this time and given the TT field isn’t that strong maybe a top 15 for Ryan Mulllen there is on the cards.

 

 

Diving- Hopefully make a semifinal, at least get close in one of the 2 events.

 

Equestrian

 

Favourites

 

Team jumping- This is the one that I am confused that we aren’t more excited about. We are top of the league of nations, we won the nations cup in Aachen. I’m not sure what happened with Darragh Kenny’s top horse (Amsterdam 27) and Bertram Allen withdrawing from reserve as well stretches us a bit but we have possibly the best depth in the world. It is very easy for showjumping to go wrong and the Swedes, French, Dutch, Belgians, Americans etc will be strong as well but we are the form team here.

 

Not so good contenders-

 

Team eventing- I haven’t a good preview of this. I just want to know what the scores are expected to look like after dressage. Dressage is the key here, if we are in touch at that point, we have every chance but I just don’t know if we will be or not. Excited to find out.

Individual jumping- Cian O’Connor (Maurice), Daniel Coyle  (Legacy), Shane Sweetnam (James Kaan Cruz)- It is always tough but having 3 potentially in the mix increases our odds significantly.

 

Outside chances

 

Individual eventing- Austin O’Connor? As above with the team event, Be in touch after dressage and we have a chance.

 

Equestrian expectations- A medal and 4/5 top tens.

 

Field Hockey- Win a game, just one and it is a good tournament.

 

Golf

 

Contenders

 

Rory McIlroy- Can say the US open disappointment didn’t affect him as much as he wants, that was a devastating loss. It would quite Rory to win here though.

Shane Lowry- Good but frustrating open. Is clearly in form.

Leona Maguire- Not in great form but is good enough.

 

Outside chances

 

Stephanie Meadow- could easily be in contention

 

Golf expectations- Honestly we should expect a medal here but it is golf, 3 in the mix for me is the expectation. Hopefully it yields a medal but.

 

 

Gymnastics-

 

Rhys McClenaghan- Ok this is one I disagree with the skepticism about. Rhys McClenaghan is much more experienced than he was in Tokyo and seems to be over the falls that plagued him in 2021/2022. He has been here before and I know its pommel but most of the time gymnastics events go to form. Will need a near perfect routine to beat Whitlock but this is a safe medal.

 

Gymnastics expectations- Silver medal

 

 

Rowing

 

Currently in the middle of rankings all of the boats for this regatta so my thoughts are somewhat incomplete.

 

Favourites

 

LM2x- Don’t be fooled by the world cup ii result. They are comfortable favourites.

 

M2x- Dutch are comfortable favourites, Romania, Italy and us in some order behind although plenty of other potential protagonists with New Zealand, France, Germany etc. I think we win bronze here.

 

Contenders

 

W2- - Still think they are doomed to a fourth place finish behind the Netherlands, Australia and Romania.

 

W2x- Haven’t had a great season and probably come in ranked 5^th/6^th behind Romania, the USA, Australia and Norway with Lithuania being a significant wildcard. I do think there is a lot of reasons for optimism here though and I can see the general public being completely unaware of them and RTE barely acknowledge their existence only for them to pop up and medal.

 

M2- - The toughest one to know as we have no idea where their form is. They are world bronze medallists and if they replicate that final performance from last year they will medal again but obviously a very disrupted season. Rowing though, you don’t necessarily need that good a season, it just needs to come together at the right time.

 

Not so good contenders

 

LW2x – They rank somewhere from 5^th to 8^th with the Canadians, French and Greeks on form. I don’t know I feel optimistic about this boat and can see them beating New Zealand, the USA or Romania for a medal and I think they will at least make the Final. This may just be me being optimistic and I’m not sure the evidence really points to them having a medal chance.

 

Rowing expectations- I maintain that this season has looked very similar to the last 2 years where we ultimately won 3 global medals in Olympic events but I accept that we only have 2 favourites and one of those is quite tentative so 2 medals is probably the expected outcome. Anything less 6 finals is a disappointment though.

 

 

Rugby Sevens

 

Contenders-

 

I’m so nervous for this now, We have a really good chance. Crucial first game against South Africa but then its either beat New Zealand for a quarter final likely against South Africa or the USA or a lose to New Zealand and face a quarter final probably against France or possibly Fiji. We are absolutely good enough but I’m not brave enough to pick a medal here.

 

Not so good contenders-

 

Women’s sevens- Will need to either upset Australia in the pools or France/ New Zealand/ Australia in the quarter-finals to make the semis. If we can do that we could sneak a bronze, but it will be tough.

 

Sevens Expectations- Men- Make the semis, Women-  be competitive in a quarter final.

 

 

Sailing

 

Not so good contenders-

 

Finn Lynch (ILCA7)- Needs a lot to go right but has produced this calibre fo performance before

 

Outisde Chances-

 

Eve McMahon- Is this the tournament where she comes of age in the senior ranks, If not then not a medal chance. If so then could become a real chance in a hurry.

 

Men’s 49er- Have stagnated a bit, but will likely win a race or two, consistency is the question mark.

 

Sailing expectations- Is two medal races and optimistic projection? Maybe, maybe not.

 

 

Swimming

 

Favourites

 

Daniel Wiffen- Two really good chances, especially with no Hafnouai and Sam Short potentially not being in great form. It is possible he wins one medal but I think it is likely he either wins 2 or 0. I trust him, so let’s say silver in the 1500, bronze in the 800.

 

Contenders

 

Mona McSharry- Apparently her entire focus has been on these Olympics which explains a slightly disappointing world championships. Needs the swim of her life to medal but I would also expect her to have the swim of her life.

 

Swimming expectations- I’m willing to say 2 medals. Outside of the three potential medal events hopefully 3/4 other semi finals/ top 16s and maybe one additional final/top 8 (open water).

 

 

Taekwondo

 

Not so good contenders-

Jack Woolley- hopefully can beat Magomedov in the last 16, then have a go at Vito dell’Aquila but safe in the knowledge that there is decent chance of a rep even if he loses.

 

Taekwondo expectation- Win a round. See where that leaves us medal chances wise.

 

 

	Predicted medals	Favourites	Contenders	Tier 2 contenders	Outside chances	Total contenders (including favourites)
Athletics	2	2	1	1	0	4
Badminton	0	0	0	0	0	0
Boxing	3	2	5	1	2	8
Canoe Slalom	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cycling	0	0	1	1	0	2
Diving	0	0	0	0	0	0
Equestrian	1	1	0	4	1	5
Field Hockey	0	0	0	0	0	0
Golf	0	0	3	1	0	4
Gymanstics	1	1	0	0	0	1
Rowing	2	2	3	1	0	6
Rugby Sevens	0	0	1	1	0	2
Sailing	0	0	0	1	2	1
Swimming	2	2	1	0	0	3
Taekwondo	0	0	0	1	0	1
Total	11	10	15	12	5	37

 

Predicted medals (2 gold, 4 silver, 5 bronze)

Gold- Kellie Harrington (W60kg boxing)

Gold- Lightweight Men’s Double Sculls

Silver- Rhys McClenaghan (Pommel horse)

Silver- Team Showjumping

Silver- Daniel Wiffen (1500m freestyle)

Silver- Rhasidat Adeleke (400m)

Bronze- Aoife O’Rourke (W75kg boxing)

Bronze- Daniel Wiffen (800m freestyle)

Bronze- Men’s Double Sculls

Bronze- Aidan Walsh (M71kg boxing) (realistically subject to change after the draw)

Bronze- Mixed 4*400m relay.

 

I know, I know I am setting myself up for disappointment and we are Irish so everything will go wrong but these are what I honestly think will happen in each sport and hopefully my contenders thing is at least somewhat convincing. I ended up with 37 contenders which at a medal rate of 36% would be 13.5 medals. I don’t think we will do that well but I think it shows that predicting 11 is far from outlandish.

Edited July 24, 2024 by Ogreman

[dodge 1,041]

I think the women’s pair win a medal and I don’t think we win a relay medal. I’m nervous for Kelly but draw dependent I could see Aoife win gold (as weird as that sounds - I think a good start and she’ll fly)