Canada's 2024 Olympics Qualification Discussion

[Topicmaster1010 4,166]

49 minutes ago, Josh said:

@Topicmaster1010 no worries if you don’t have time, but just wondering, are we gonna get a second version of the Paris simulation?

Yep, I'm going to post it sometime in early January and I'll do a breakdown of Team Canada on here as well.

[Josh 10,494]

Upcoming Canadian Olympic Qualifiers (January/February 2024)

Women’s Field Hockey Olympic Qualification Tournament (Jan 13-20)

Men’s Field Hockey Olympic Qualification Tournament (Jan 13-21)

Sailing ICLA 7 Worlds (Jan 26-31)

Pan American Taekwondo Olympic Qualifier (Jan 30-31)

Artistic Swimming at the World Aquatic Championships (Feb 2-10)

Diving at the World Aquatic Championships (Feb 2-10)

Marathon Swimming at the World Aquatic Championships (Feb 3-8)

Women’s Waterpolo at the World Aquatic Championships (Feb 4-16)

Women’s Basketball Olympic Qualification Tournament (Feb 8-11)

Swimming at the World Aquatic Championships (Feb 11-18)

Table Tennis Team World Championships (Feb 16-25)

ISA Surfing Worlds (Feb 23- Mar 3)

Sailing 470 World Championships (Feb 24- Mar 3)

Pan American Wrestling Olympic Qualifier (Feb 28- Mar 1)

Pan American Shotgun Shooting Championships (Feb 29- Mar 9)

Boxing World Olympic Qualifier 1 (Feb 29- March 12)

 

If I’m missing any internal Canadian Olympic Qualifiers for team selection, feel free to let me know. 

Edited January 24 by Josh

[Josh 10,494]

On 11/12/2023 at 6:57 PM, Josh said:

Right okay, since 2023 is almost over I decided to do another simulation/prediction on how the rest of the qualification period will go. Now, me being me, I’ll probably be extremely realistic so consider some of them to be unlikely.  
 

PT 1/2 (Since I don’t have enough time to do it in one go)
 

Archery (2) - As per usual, one male and one female athlete. Eric Peters has already secured a men’s quota through Worlds, don’t see us qualifying a team either through the PAOQT (Pan-Am Olympic Qualification Tournament) or the FOQT (Final Olympic Qualification Tournament). We should qualify a female athlete through the PAOQT, probably Kristen Esebua if she can get her citizenship in time otherwise Stephanie Barrett/Virginie Chenier.  
 

Artistic Swimming (0-10) - Anything from a team, to a duet, to nothing at all.  Then again, I don’t follow artistic swimming very much, maybe I’m being too optimistic/pessimistic? 
 

Athletics (58) -

Men’s 100m- Andre DeGrasse, Brendon Rodney, Aaron Brown

Men’s 200m- Andre DeGrasse, Brendon Rodney, Aaron Brown

Men's 4x100m - Brendon Rodney, Andre DeGrasse, Aaron Brown, Jerome Blake, Bojale Ajomale (heats only)

Men’s 800m- Marco Arop, Brandon McBride

Men’s 1500m- Kieran Lumb, Charles Philibert-Thiboutot, Cam Proceviat

Men’s 5000m- Justyn Knight, Mo Ahmed, Benjamin Flanagan

Men’s 10000m- Mo Ahmed

Men’s 110m Hurdles- Craig Thorne

Men’s 3000m Steeplechase- Jean Simon Desgagnes, Matthew Hughes

Men’s High Jump- Django Lovett (had a disappointing performance at Worlds, but just have him sneaking in)

Men’s Hammer Throw- Adam Keenan, Rowan Hamilton, Ethan Katzberg

Men’s Marathon- Cam Levins, Trevor Hofbauer, Ben Priesner

Decathlon- Pierce LePage, Damian Warner

Men’s 20km Race Walk- Evan Dunfee

Women’s 100m- Khamica Bingham, Sade McCreath, Jacqueline Madogo

Women’s 400m- Grace Konrad, Madeline Price, Kyra Constantine (replacing Price with Natassha McDonald if she’s still competing, anyone know if she’s injured or not?)

Women’s 800m- Jazz Shukla

Women’s 1500m- Kate Current, Gabriela De Bues Stafford, Lucia Stafford

Women’s 5000m- Gracelyn Larkin, Brianna Scott, Julie-Ann Staehli

Women’s 100m Hurdles- Mariam Abdul Rashid, Michelle Harrison

Women’s 400m Hurdles- Brooke Overholt, Savannah Sutherland, Sage Watson (if still competing)

Women’s 3000m Steeplechase- Celi McCabe, Regan Yee, Grace Fetherstonhaugh

Women’s Pole Vault- Alysha Newman, Anicka Newell

Women’s Shot Put- Sarah Mitton

Women’s Hammer Throw- Jillian Weir (injured or?), Camryn Rogers, Kaila Butler

Women’s Javelin Throw- Liz Gleadle

Women’s Marathon- Malindi Elmore, Natascha Wodak

 

According to Christabel Nettey’s WA page, she hasn’t competed since August 2022. Assuming it’s injury related as I haven’t seen any news about her potential retirement. I’m leaving her off for now. 
 

Badminton (8) - Michelle Li in women’s singles and Brian Yang in men’s singles. Adam Dong/Nyl Yakura in men’s doubles, Rachel Honderich/Kristen Tsai in women’s doubles, and Ty Lindeman/Josephine Wu in mixed doubles. 
 

Basketball (24) - Men’s team already qualified through the FIBA World Cup, women’s team should qualify through the OQT. 
 

3x3 Basketball (4) - Women’s team will almost definitely qualify, with the athletes being Michelle Plouffe, Katherine Plouffe, Paige Crozon, and Kacie Bosch. 
 

Beach Volleyball (4-6) - Melissa Humana-Parades/Brandie Wilkerson are a lock to qualify. Sarah Pavan/Molly McBain and Sophie Bukovec/Heather Bansley will be battling for that second quota, no chance for either through World Rankings probably, but the NORCECA event shouldn’t provide much of a challenge with only Gutierrez/Flores capable of beating them (and even that seems unlikely). On the men’s side, US will most likely qualify two pairings through World Rankings which means it’ll most likely come down to Sam Scachter/Dan Dearing against Diaz/Alayo for the quota. 
 

Boxing (4-5) - Wyatt Sanford (men’s 63.5kg) and Tammara Thibeault (women’s 75kg) have already qualified for Paris through the Pan Am Games. Also think Scarlett Delgado (women’s 54kg) and Charlie Cavanaugh will qualify eventually through one of the two Olympic Qualification Tournaments. 

 

Think someone else could win a surprise quota, but don’t know who. 
 

Breaking (1-2) - Philip Kim (“Phil Wizard”) has already qualified for Paris through the Pan Am Games. No chance for a second quota on the men’s side, but Tiff Leung (“Tiff) should have a chance through the OQS. 

 

Canoeing- Sprint/Slalom (16)

At the Canoe Sprint World Championships we qualified boats in women's K-1 500m, women's K-4 500m, women's C-1 200m, women's C-2 500m, and men's K-4 500m.

Sprint

Women’s K1-500m- Michelle Russell

Women's K-2 500m- Tosha Behak Hrebacka/Andreanne Laglois

Women’s K-4 500m- Tosha Behak Hrebacka/Andreanne Laglois/Riley Melanson/Natalie Davidson

Women’s C1-200m- Katie Vincent

Women’s C2-500m- Sophia Jensen/Katie Vincent

Men’s K2-500m- Pierre-Luc Poulin/Simon McTavish

Men’s K4-500m- Nicolas Mateev/Laurent Lavigne/Pierre-Luc Poulin/Simon McTavish

Men’s C1-1000m- Connor Fitzpatrick

Men’s C2-500m- Connor Fitzpatrick/Roland Varga

 

Slalom

Men’s C1- Alex Baldoni

Women’s C1- Lois Betteridge

Women’s K1- Florence Maheu

 

Cycling- Track/BMX/MB (22) -

Track

Women’s Sprint- Kelsey Mitchell, Lauraine Genest

Women’s Keirin- Kelsey Mitchell, Lauraine Genest

Women’s Team Sprint- Sarah Orban/Kelsey Mitchell/Lauraine Genest

Women’s Team Pursuit- Allison Beveridge/Maggie Coles-Lyster/Sarah Van Dam/Ariane Bonhomme

Women’s Omnium- Allison Beveridge, Maggie Coles-Lyster

Women’s Madison- Sarah Van Dam

Men’s Sprint- Nick Wammes, Ryan Dodyk, James Hedgcock

Men’s Keirin- Nick Wammes, Ryan Dodyk, James Hedgcock

Men’s Team Sprint- Nick Wammes/Ryan Dodyk/James Hedgcock

Men’s Team Pursuit- Dylan Bibic, Mathias Guillemette, Derek Gee

Men’s Madison- Dylan Bibic/Mathias Guillemette

Men’s Omnium- Dylan Bibic

 

BMX Racing

Women’s Event- Molly Simpson

 

Mountain Biking

Men’s Event- Carter Woods (or maybe Gunnar Holmgren)

Women’s Event- Emily Batty Jennifer Jackson

 

Road (Team will be 3 female, 2 male)

Women’s Road Race- Alison Jackson, Olivia Baril, Simone Boilard

Women’s Time Trial- Alison Jackson, Olivia Baril

Men’s Road Race- Hugo Houle, Michael Woods

Men’s Time Trial- Hugo Houle

Diving (7) -

Men’s 10m Platform- Rylan Wiens, Nathan Zsombar-Murray

Men’s 10m Synchro Platform- Rylan Wiens/Nathan Zsombar-Murray

Women’s 3m Springboard- Pamela Ware, Mia Vallee

Women’s 3m Synchro Platform- Pamela Ware/Mia Vallee

Women’s 10m Platform- Caeli McKay, Celina Toth

Women’s 10m Synchro Platform- Caeli McKay/Kate Miller

 

Still don’t know if Melissa Citrini is retired yet, would replace her for Toth/Miller if so. 
 

Equestrian (9) - Full team already qualified through the Pan Am Games. 
 

Fencing (12-15) - Women’s team foil (most likely Sabrina Fang/Jessica Guo/Eleanor Harvey), men’s team foil (most likely Maxmillen Van Haaster/Blake Broszus/Patrick Liu), and men’s team sabre (Fares Arfa/Shaul Gordon/Francois Cauchon) should qualify. Men’s team epee (Fynn Fafard/Nicolas Zhang/Dylan French) has a chance, but we’ll be relying on Venezuela to be among the top four. Either way, we’ll probably qualify at least one athlete there (either Dylan French or Nicolas Zhang), along with Ruien Xiao (women’s epee) and maybe Pamela Brind’Amour (women’s sabre)

 

Have Kelliegh Ryan/Eli Schenkel retired?

 

Football (18) - Women’s team already qualified through the CONCACAF Olympic Playoff. 
 

Golf (4) - Corey Conners and Nick Taylor in the men’s event, and Brooke Henderson and Maude Aimee Leblanc in the women’s event. 
 

Gymnastics (13) - Women's and men’s artistic gymnastics teams already qualified through the Artistic Gymnastics World Championships. Sophiane Methot has already secured a women’s trampoline quota through the Trampoline Gymnastics World Championships. 

 

Artistic

Women’s Team - Ellie Black, Shallon Olsen, Emma Spence, Sydney Turner, and either Laurie Denoumee or Brooklyn Moors

Men's Team - Felix Dolci, William Emard, Rene Cournoyer, Chris Kaji, Jayson Rampersad

 

Trampoline

Sophiane Methot - Women's Event

Sarah Milette - Women's Event

Jermey Chartier/Remi Aubin/Keegan Soehn - Men's Event

Judo (7) -

Women’s 57kg- Christa Deguchi

Women’s -63kg- Catherine Beauchemin Pinard

Women’s -78kg- Coralie Godbout

Men’s -73kg- Arthur Margelidon

Men’s -81kg- Francois Gauthier Drapeau

Men’s -100kg- Kyle Reyes

 

And either Kelly Deguchi (women’s 52kg) or Louis Krieber Gagnon (men’s 90kg) with a continental quota.   

 

Sailing (7) -

Women’s Laser Radial (OQP secured) - Sarah Douglas

 

Women’s 49er FX (OQP secured) - Georgia Lewin-Lafrance/Antonia Lewin-Lafrance (Ten Hove/Millen miss out)

Women’s Kite (OQP secured) - Nataliya Leshkyo

Men’s Laser- Fillah Karim

Men’s 49er (OQP secured)- Justin Barnes/Will Jones (Moffatt/Woods miss out)

Skateboarding (4) -

Men’s Street- Micky Papa, Cordano Russell, Ryan Decenzo

Women’s Park- Fay Ebert

 

Rowing (21) - Women’s eight and women’s lightweight double sculls already qualified through the Rowing World Championships. But we had a disappointing outing there otherwise, so probably won’t qualify more than a couple of additional boats at the FOQR. I’m thinking men’s single sculls and men’s eight. 
 

Rugby Sevens (12) - Women’s team already qualified through Ran Sevens. Don’t see our men qualifying, they’ll most likely need to beat a couple of South Africa, Great Britain, and Spain at the FOQT. 
 

Shooting/swimming/waterpolo/weightlifting/wrestling/tennis/sport climbing/surfing/table tennis/taekwondo/triathlon/volleyball in PT2.
 

No quotas in field hockey, rhythmic gymnastics, or handball.  

It’s been almost two months since I posted this, here’s the PT 2

 

Shooting (2-3) - Shannon Westlake, and Tugrul Ozer have already secured quotas for Canada in women’s 50m rifle 3 positions and men’s 10m air pistol. I’m thinking we grab one more quota, slightly leaning towards Lindsay Boddez or Madeline Scola in women’s trap but it could be pretty much anyone. 
 

Sport Climbing (0-2) - Anywhere from zero to two of Sean McColl and Alannah Yip in men’s/women’s boulder and lead. 
 

Surfing (2-3) - Even if Erin Brooks doesn’t get her Canadian citizenship in time for this years ISA Worlds, I do think we’ll qualify at least one more athlete in surfing, and maybe even both of Cody Young and Mathea Olin. 
 

Swimming (26-29) -  Not sold on Penny Oleksiak, she’s off the team for now. We should qualify at least 6/7 relays, with only the men’s 4x200m free providing an exception.

 

@Topicmaster1010 curious to hear your thoughts on my swimming predictions, and also when you have time still waiting for your qualification simulation. 
 

Women’s 200m Freestyle- Taylor Ruck, Mary Sophie Harvey

Women’s 400m Freestyle- Summer McIntosh, Ella Jansen

Women’s 1500m Freestyle- Emma Finlin

Women’s 100m Backstroke- Ingrid Wilm, Kylie Masse

Women’s 200m Backstroke- Kylie Masse, Taylor Ruck

Women’s 100m Breaststroke- Sophie Angus, Alexanne LePage

Women’s 200m Breaststroke- Kelsey Wog, Sydney Pickrem

Women’s 100m Butterfly- Maggie MacNeil, Katerine Savard

Women’s 200m Butterfly- Summer McIntosh

Women’s 200m Individual Medley- Sydney Pickrem, Summer McIntosh

Women’s 400m Individual Medley- Summer McIntosh, Tessa Cieplucha

Men’s 50m Freestyle- Josh Liendo

Men’s 100m Freestyle- Josh Liendo, Ruslan Gaziev 

Men’s 100m Backstroke- Javier Acevado

Men’s 100m Breaststroke- James Dergousoff

Men’s 100m Butterfly- Illya Kharun, Josh Liendo

Men’s 200m Butterfly- Illya Kharun

Men’s 200m Individual Medley- Finlay Knox

Men’s 400m Individual Medley- Collyn Gagne, Lorne Wigginton

 

Plus a couple of relay only swimmers. 

 

Table Tennis (4) - We shockingly qualified a men’s team already, Mo Zhang should qualify in women’s singles through the Pan American Qualification Tournament. 
 

Taekwondo (2-3) - Skylar Park has already qualified in women’s 57kg. Think we’ll grab another quota with either Ashley Kraayeveld (women’s 67kg) or Nicolas Hoefling (men’s 58kg)
 

Tennis (6) - Felix Auger Aliassime, Gabriel Diallo, Denis Shapovalov in men’s singles. Bianca Andresscu and Leylah Fernandez in women’s singles. Gabriela Dabrowski joins the team for women’s/mixed doubles. 

No Pospisil, Bouchard, Stauskic, or Marino. 
 

Triathlon (4) - Tyler Mislawchuk and Charles Paquet in the men’s event, and Emy Legault and Dominika Jamnicky in the women’s event, therefore qualifying us a mixed relay. 
 

Waterpolo (0-12) - Men’s team had a horrible Pan Ams and will have no further chance. Depending on who qualifies at the European Waterpolo Championships (currently ongoing, we want it to be Hungary) we should have a chance at the World Aquatic Championships although with only two quotas available there’s a reasonable chance that we miss out. 
 

Weightlifting (1-2) - Barring an injury, Maude Charron is high enough in the rankings that she’s pretty much safe to qualify for Paris. Boady Santavy obliterated the Canadian record in his weighclass at the Doha Grand Prix, but is only 10th in the OQR. I do think he’ll eventually make it, but he’ll definitely need to improve on his number. 
 

Wrestling (5) - Despite our tough Worlds, I have us securing quotas in women’s 53kg, women’s 62kg, women’s 68kg, women’s 76kg, and men’s 125kg. 
 

Volleyball (13-26) - Men’s team has already qualified. While our women’s team is within touching distance of Netherlands for the final quota, I don’t have a good feeling about it. 

Edited January 10 by Josh

[Topicmaster1010 4,166]

On 1/7/2024 at 4:51 PM, Josh said:

Swimming (26-29) -  Not sold on Penny Oleksiak, she’s off the team for now. We should qualify at least 6/7 relays, with only the men’s 4x200m free providing an exception.

 

@Topicmaster1010 curious to hear your thoughts on my swimming predictions, and also when you have time still waiting for your qualification simulation. 
 

Women’s 200m Freestyle- Taylor Ruck, Mary Sophie Harvey

Women’s 400m Freestyle- Summer McIntosh, Ella Jansen

Women’s 1500m Freestyle- Emma Finlin

Women’s 100m Backstroke- Ingrid Wilm, Kylie Masse

Women’s 200m Backstroke- Kylie Masse, Taylor Ruck

Women’s 100m Breaststroke- Sophie Angus, Alexanne LePage

Women’s 200m Breaststroke- Kelsey Wog, Sydney Pickrem

Women’s 100m Butterfly- Maggie MacNeil, Katerine Savard

Women’s 200m Butterfly- Summer McIntosh

Women’s 200m Individual Medley- Sydney Pickrem, Summer McIntosh

Women’s 400m Individual Medley- Summer McIntosh, Tessa Cieplucha

Men’s 50m Freestyle- Josh Liendo

Men’s 100m Freestyle- Josh Liendo, Ruslan Gaziev 

Men’s 200m Backstroke- Javier Acevado

Men’s 100m Breaststroke- James Dergousoff

Men’s 100m Butterfly- Illya Kharun, Josh Liendo

Men’s 200m Butterfly- Illya Kharun

Men’s 200m Individual Medley- Finlay Knox

Men’s 400m Individual Medley- Collyn Gagne, Lorne Wigginton

 

Plus a couple of relay only swimmers. 

Very nice work!

 

Mostly similar to what I have. I'll try to post my simulation results over the weekend.

 

You seem to be more optimistic than me overall. The major differences are that you were more optimistic in gymnastics and rowing and I was more optimistic in wrestling (though that could just be the result of the world rankings not being that great )

 

A few team corrections: Rugby sevens quota is 12 athletes, water polo is 11 athletes, and indoor volleyball is 12.

 

As for swimming, looks pretty good overall! Glad you don't have Oleksiak in there because she's showed nothing this year.

 

Personally, I think Julie Brousseau will get a spot in the 200m freestyle. She's been on a great improvement. The 200m freestyle figures to be one of the most exciting events at trials so I'm looking forward to it.

Glad you have Finlin in there! Fingers crossed she can drop 6 six seconds from her PB in the next 5 months.

Think the 2nd spot in the women's 200m backstroke could be interesting. A lot of swimmers in the 2:11-2:13 range but if she keeps improving at her current rate, I would keep an eye on 15 year old Madison Kryger.

Not sure if Angus will get the OQT or not but either way, she's showed she's the best relay breaststroker in the country so she should be selected if she' in form at trials.

In the women's 100m butterfly, I could see Kamryn Cannings getting the 2nd spot or Rebecca Smith if she returns to form but Savard is probably the favorite for now.

Would be nice to be able to get a 2nd person in the women's 200m butterfly. Jansen or Zavaros would seem like the most likely candidates.

I don't see Cieplucha getting the 2nd spot in the 400m IM. Think it'll go to Jansen.

Acevedo doesn't swim the 200m backstroke. I'm assuming you meant the 100? For the 200m, I think one of Hugh McNeill or Aiden Norman can get the OQT.

I don't see Dergousoff hitting the 100m breast OQT (or anyone else) given his age and how far away he is from it. Think he has a better chance in the 200 in which I would give Taivassalo a better chance of qualifying given his trajectory.

Would also be nice to get a 2nd qualifier in the men's 200m butterfly. A couple guys that are capable but not likely at the moment but fingers crossed.

If Wigginton keeps improving, then he could qualify in the 200m IM too. Same with Kharun.

Unfortunately I don't see Gagne qualifying in the 400m IM. If this was the Tokyo OQT, then yes but 4:12.50 is just an insane standard. But it would be great if he did.

 

Edit: Forgot to add this: I think MacNeil swims one of the 50 or 100 free (or both)

Edited January 9 by Topicmaster1010

[james89 847]

Re: Oleksiak - she's on the entry list for the Pro Swim Series this weekend - I'm not expecting her to compete given her recent trajectory but its worth keeping an eye on.   

 

I think Brousseau is another big star in the making.

[intoronto 5,638]

Water polo is back up to 12 athlete quotas

[NearPup 3,045]

Random, but I did think one really good thing about the Tokyo Olympics was the bigger team sizes. Some sports (Soccer especially) have precariously small roster sizes.

 

It's especially weird because alternates travel anyway, I don't think there is anything wrong putting them on the roster and letting them play as needed (make teams bear the expenses for those extra players for all I care).

[Josh 10,494]

@Topicmaster1010 volleyball team size just increased from 12 to 13 (one additional alternate due to injury)

 

I guess that means I can tell the future, huh? 

 

I personally wish the Olympic roster was 14 players, with no alternates, but it’s better than nothing I guess.  

[Topicmaster1010 4,166]

Time to do a deep dive for my updated quota simulation.

 

 

 Team Size: 302 (+2 from the last simulation)

# of Sports Qualified In: 38 (+2)

# of events: 184

 

Archery (1) (-1):

1 event

Eric Peters is already qualified in the men's event. Unfortunately, I don't have Canada qualifying a woman this time. Athletes from Cuba and Chile were ranked higher in the Americas region.

 

Athletics (41) (-10):

25 events

 

Athletes already qualified through an entry standard are bolded with their respective events. Quite a big drop from last year with lots of athletes not having great seasons or not competing.

 

On the men's side, we're missing John Gay, Trevor Hofbauer, Django Lovett, Brandon McBride, Malik Metivier, William Paulson, Cameron Proceviat, Ryan Smeeton and Ben Thorne.

 

On the women's side, we're missing Lindsey Butterworth, Kyra Constantine, Gabriela Debues-Stafford, Crystal Emmanuel, Lauren Gale, Liz Gleadle, Natalia Hawthorn, Madeleine Kelly, Natassha McDonald, Christabel Nettey, Leslie Sexton and Jillian Weir.

 

Men (18):

Mohammed Ahmed - 5000m, 10000m

Marco Arop - 800m

Jerome Blake - 100m

Aaron Brown - 100m, 200m

Andre de Grasse - 200m

Jean-Simon Desgagnes - 3000m Steeplechase

Evan Dunfee - 20km Race Walk

Benjamin Flanagan - 5000m

Rowan Hamilton - Hammer Throw

Ethan Katzberg - Hammer Throw

Adam Keenan - Hammer Throw

Pierce Lepage - Decathlon

Cameron Levins - Marathon

Rory Linkletter - Marathon

Kieran Lumb - 1500m

Charles Philibert-Thiboutot - 1500m

Brendon Rodney - 100m, 200m

Damian Warner - Decathlon

 

Women (19):

Mariam Abdul-Rashid - 100m Hurdles

Khamica Bingham - 100m

Malindi Elmore - Marathon

Grace Fetherstonhaugh - 3000m Steeplechase

Michelle Harrison - 100m Hurdles

Grace Konrad - 400m

Ceili McCabe - 3000m Steeplechase

Sarah Mitton - Shot Put

Anicka Newell - Pole Vault

Alysha Newman - Pole Vault

Brooke Overholt - 400m Hurdles

Simone Plourde - 1500m

Camryn Rogers - Hammer Throw

Jazz Shukla - 800m

Julie-Anne Staehli - 5000m

Lucia Stafford - 1500m

Savannah Sutherland - 400m Hurdles

Natasha Wodak - Marathon

Regan Yee - 3000m Steeplechase

 

+4 relay athletes for the Men's 4x100m and Women's 4x400m Relays

 

Badminton (6) (-2):

4 events

 

From the rankings:

 

Brian Yang - Men's Singles

Michelle Li - Women's Singles

Adam Dong/Nyl Yakura - Men's Doubles

Catherine Choi/Josephine Wu - Women's Doubles

 

Unfortunately, the American team is ahead of the Canadian team in the mixed doubles world rankings so that's the reason for the -2 from last simulation.

 

Basketball (24) (+12):

2 events

Mission accomplished! Men's team is in. Women's team still needs to qualify but they shouldn't have too much problem qualifying.

 

3x3 Basketball (4) (No change):

1 event

Women's 3x3 team still on track to qualify through the Olympic qualifying tournament.

 

Boxing (3) (No change):

3 events

 

Men's 63.5kg - Wyatt Sanford

Women's 60kg - Charlie Cavanagh

Women's 66kg - Tammara Thibeault

 

Sanford and Thibeault are already qualified. Cavanagh is still projected to qualify here but of course the chances of that happening are now slim with her losing in nationals. Scarlett Delgado was originally projected to qualify in the original version of this simulation. I would say 3 boxers would be a reasonable prediction.

 

Breaking (1) (No change):

1 event

 

Phil Wizard is already qualified and it projects to stay that way although it's possible we qualify a female breaker as well.

 

Canoe Slalom (3) (+1):

5 events (Because I think every athlete is able to enter the kayak cross? Maybe?)

 

Alex Baldoni - Men's C-1

Lea Baldoni - Women's K-1

Lois Betteridge - Women's C-1

 

Even though each NOC can only qualify one athlete per gender in the continental qualification event, I have Lea Baldoni getting a reallocated quota.

 

Canoe Sprint (15) (+1):

10 events

 

Thanks to a great world championships, we're projected for 15 quotas at the moment of which 12 have already been obtained. Aside from the current quotas, I have Canada earning a continental quota in the Men's C-2 500m and an extra men's kayak quota in the K-1 1000m. This would mean that Canada would have entries in all events.

 

BMX Freestyle (1) (+1)

1 event

 

Didn't have anyone qualifying in this sport last simulation but if all the big names qualify through the Olympic Qualifying series, then Jeffrey Whaley could end up with a men's quota through the 2023 World Championships

 

BMX Racing (1) (No change):

1 event

 

Thanks to great performances from Molly Simpson, Canada is currently projected to qualify 1 female through the Olympic rankings. I would assume that she would get the spot.

 

Mountain Biking (2) (No change):

2 events

 

Through the nations rankings, Canada is once again projected to earn one quota in both the men's and women's events. Carter Woods and Jennifer Jackson are the top ranked Canadians.

 

Road Cycling (4) (+1):

4 events

 

2 men's and 2 women's quotas. I thought I remember we were supposed to have 3 women's quotas but according to the official UCI qualification document, we only have 2 women qualified. Not going to list any names because there's a lot of candidates to choose from.

 

Track Cycling (14) (-1):

12 events

 

Lost a quota here because we lost an extra men's omnium quota. However, Canada is still projected to qualify men's/women's sprint and men's/women's pursuit teams meaning that we would have an entry in each event (unless we reject the women's madison quota like last time).

 

Diving (5): (-1)

4 events

 

So since diving doesn't have an official world ranking, I used the world championship results to simulate quotas. The one problem with that is that Rylan Wiens didn't compete. So as now, the projected quotas are: (bolded athletes are already qualified)

 

Nathan Zsombor-Murray - Men's 10m Platform

Pamela Ware - Women's 3m Springboard, 3m Synchronized Springboard

Mia Vallee - Women's 3m Springboard, 3m Synchronized Springboard

Caeli McKay - Women's 10m Platform

Elaena Dick - Women's 10m Platform

 

I could definitely see Rylan Wiens qualifying in the 10m platform which as well as men's and women's 10m platform synchro teams.

 

Equestrian (9) (No change):

6 events

 

Full team already qualified and disaster averted!

 

Fencing (12) (+4):

9 events

 

A nice increase here. We are in position to qualify both men's and women's foil teams as well as a men's sabre team as the best ranked team from the Americas not from the top 4. Pamela Brind'amour is in position to qualify in the women's sabre through the rankings and I also have Nicholas Zhang and Ruien Xiao qualifying through the zonal tournaments in the men's and women's epee event respectively.

 

Football (18) (No change):

1 event

 

Women are qualified!

 

Golf (4) (No change):

 

2 events

 

Two men and two women through the world rankings. I don't see anyway it changes. Right now, the projected golfers are Corey Conners (34th), Adam Hadwin (49th), Brooke Henderson (12th), and Maddie Szeryk (249th).

 

Artistic Gymnastics (10) (No change):

14 events

 

Both men's and women's teams successfully qualified!

 

Trampoline (1) (-1):

1 event

 

Sophiane Methot has booked her spot to Paris already. I don't remember Jeremy Chartier competing in the world championships so that's why he might've been excluded but I would imagine that an extra male and female quota are possible here.

 

Judo (6) (-1):

6 events

 

Mens -73kg - Arthur Margelidon (13th in Olympic Rankings)

Men's -81kg - Francois Gauthier Drapeau (7th in Olympic Rankings)

Men's -90kg - Louis Krieber Gagnon (Continental Quota)

Men's -100kg - Kyle (6th in Olympic Rankings)

 

Women's -57kg - Christa Deguchi (1st in Olympic Rankings)

Women's -63kg - Catherine Beauchemin-Pinard (5th in Olympic Rankings)

 

Unfortunately, Cuba has surpassed is in the Americas nations rankings so we lose our team event quota.

 

Rowing (11) (-17):

 

2 events

 

What a complete disaster of a World Championships. We only managed to qualify boats in the women's lightweight double sculls and women's eights. That in turn means that we aren't eligible for continental quotas and now our boats are competing for one of two quotas in the remaining 12 events and based on the world championship results, I don't have any more boats qualifying.

 

Rugby Sevens (12) (No change):

1 event

 

Women's team is already qualified. Men are in the final qualifying tournament but I think the competition is too strong for them.

 

Sailing (6) (-1):

4 events

 

Already have quotas in men's skiff), women's kite, women's dinghy, and women's skiff.  Unfortuntely, Canada lost a quota in the men's dinghy from the last simulation

 

Shooting (2) (+2): 

4 events?

 

Thankfully, we managed to qualify two athletes at the Pan Am Games. They should both be able to enter two events each. Unfortunately, I don't have anyone else qualifying but would love to be proved wrong.

 

Skateboarding (4) (-3):

2 events

 

The 7 predicted skateboarders from last year's simulation was probably unrealistic given that it was from some sketchy skateboard ranking site. However, now that the official rankings are up, this should be more accurate. I have Cordano Russell, Ryan Decenzo, and Micky Papa qualifying in men's street and Fay Ebert qualifying in women's park.

 

Surfing (3) (+1):

2 events
Sanoe Olin is already qualified. Using the World Championships results, I also have Erin Brooks (if she gets her citizenship) and Cody Young also qualifying.

 

Swimming (26) (+3):

28 events

 

Based on OQT's, OCT's, and individual times this year (for relay athetes). Remember, this is based on 2023 data. Not necessarily who I think will be on the Olympic Team . Notably no Oleksiak or Ruck. Also no open waters (although Hau-Li Fan wasn't competing at the 2023 Worlds so he could definitely qualify).

 

Men (11):

• Javier Acevedo - 100m Backstroke, 4x100m Freestyle Relay, 4x200m Freestyle Relay, 4x100m Medley Relay
• Jeremy Bagshaw - 4x200m Freestyle Relay
• James Dergousoff - 200m Breaststroke, 4x100m Medley Relay, Mixed Relay
• Ruslan Gaziev - 100m Freestyle, 4x100m Freestyle Relay, 4x200m Freestyle Relay, 4x100m Medley Relay
• Patrick Hussey - 4x200m Freestyle Relay
• Ilya Kharun - 100m Butterfly, 200m Butterfly
• Yuri Kisil (4x100m Freestyle Relay)
• Finlay Knox - 200m IM
• Josh Liendo - 50m Freestyle, 100m Freestyle, 100m Butterfly, 4x100m Freestyle Relay, 4x100m Medley Relay, Mixed Relay
• Hugh McNeill - 200m Backstroke
• Lorne Wigginton - 400m IM

 

Women (15):

• Sophie Angus - 4x100m Medley Relay
• Julie Brousseau - 4x200m Freestyle Relay
• Brooklyn Douthwright - 4x100m Freestyle Relay, 4x200m Freestyle Relay
• Sarah Fournier - 4x100m Freestyle Relay
• Mary-Sophie Harvey - 200m Freestyle, 4x100m Freestyle Relay, 4x200m Freestyle Relay, 4x100m Medley Relay
• Ella Jansen - 400m Freestyle, 400m IM, 4x200m Freestyle Relay
• Alexanne Lepage - 100m Breaststroke, 4x100m Medley Relay
• Maggie Mac Neil - 50m Freestyle, 100m Freestyle, 100m Butterfly, 4x100m Freestyle Relay, 4x100m Medley Relay, Mixed Relay
• Kylie Masse - 100m Backstroke, 200m Backstroke, 4x100m Medley Relay, Mixed Relay
• Summer McIntosh - 200m Freestyle (probably won't swim), 400m Freestyle, 800m Freestyle (definitely won't swim), 200m Backstroke (definitely won't swim), 200m Butterfly, 200m IM, 400m IM, 4x100m Freestyle Relay, 4x200m Freestyle Relay, 4x100m Medley Relay
• Sydney Pickrem - 200m Breaststroke, 200m IM
• Katerine Savard - 100m Butterfly
• Rebecca Smith - 4x100m Freestyle Relay, 4x200m Freestyle Relay
• Ingrid Wilm - 100m Backstroke, 200m Backstroke (most likely), 4x100m Medley Relay
• Kelsey Wog - 200m Breaststroke

 

 

 

Table Tennis (4) (+2):

3 events

 

Somehow, we've managed to qualify a men's team. Mo Zhang earns a quota through the Americas qualification tournament.

 

Taekwondo (2) (-1):

2 events

 

Women's -49kg - Viviane Tranquille (Through continental qualifying tournament)

Women's -57kg - Skylar Park (Already qualified)

 

Nicholas Hoefling are Ashley Kraayeveld (instead of Tranqille) could also qualify.

 

Tennis (4) (-2):

4 events

 

Felix Auger-Alissime (29th) qualifies in men's singles. Leylah Fernandez (35th) and Bianca Andreescu (through a Grand Slam champion quota) qualify in women's singles. Gabriella Dabrowski joins the team for the doubles event. Big decline for the tennis team over the past year. Probably could get a mixed doubles team too.

 

Triathlon (4) (No change):

3 events

 

Tyler Mislawchuk (18th) and Charles Paquet (43rd) qualify through the men's olympic rankings. Emy Legault (38th) and Dominika Jamnicky (58th) qualifiy through the women's olympic rankings. This would mean that Canada would be able to enter a mixed relay team. The 4 quotas should be mostly safe.

 

Beach Volleyball (6) (+2):

2 events

 

An increase of two because I have a men's team qualifying this time. I'm projecting Schacter/Dearing to qualify through the North American qualification event. For the women, Melissa/Brandie should safely qualify through the rankings and another Canadian team (in this case Pavan/McBain) should be able to qualify through the North American qualification event.

 

Indoor Volleyball (12) (+12):

1 event

 

Men's team is qualified! Women's team is very close but is not currently in a favorable world ranking position. I hope they make it!

 

Water Polo (11) (-1):

1 event

 

Decrease of 1 athlete because of the change in team size. (Yes I know the document says 12 but one is an alternate which means that 11 count towards the overall quota. Plus I don't want to go through every country in the simulation and update everything . Same thing with volleyball)

 

Thanks to the US failing to qualify through the world championships, Canada wasn't able to qualify through the Pan Am Games as previously predicted. Now they'll have to go through Worlds but at the 2023 edition, they were able to finish ahead of Greece which means I have the team qualifying for the games as of now. However, Greece has looked great during the European Championships so this is by no means a safe quota.

 

Weightlifting (2) (+1):

2 events

 

Maude Charron is in a qualifying position in the women's 59kg event and Boady Santavy is in a qualifying position in the men's 89kg event.

 

Wrestling (8) (+2):

8 events

 

Through the Americas Qualification Tournament:

 

Men's 74kg Freestyle - Adam Thomson

Men's 97kg Freestyle - Nishan Randhawa

 

Women's 50kg Freestyle - Madison Parks

Women's 53kg Freestyle - Samantha Stewart

Women's 57kg Freestyle - Hannah Taylor

Women's 62kg Freestyle - Ana Godinez Gonzalez

Women's 68kg Freestyle - Olivia di Bacco

Women's 76kg Freestyle - Justina di Stasio

 

 

Sports not qualified in:

 

Artistic Swimming:

In a matter of a couple of years, we have gone from best in the Americas to very unlikely not to qualify any athletes. Doesn't help that we finished 5th in duet at the Pan American Games.

 

Field Hockey:

Unfortunately, both teams were too low in the world rankings to qualify in this simulation. Maybe we'll qualify a team, maybe we won't. Could go either way.

 

Sport Climbing (-1):

Canada's in real danger of not qualifying anyone in sport climbing. Alannah Yip was the athlete I predicted to qualify in last year's simulation but that was only because I had two Americans qualifying through the World Championships with Yip taking the Pan American quota. Now that that option is gone, she and the other climbers will be in tough at the OQS. An upset is possible but not likely.

 

Handball: No way. Modern Pentathlon: Probably not. 

[Josh 10,494]

I know we probably won’t match our total from Tokyo 2020, 380+ is an unrealistic number, but just over 300 sounds a little low even with the reduced athlete cap. I think we’ll qualify around 315 at the very least, but who knows.