[PREDICTION CONTESTS] Discussion Thread

[dcro 10,210]

I don't really see the point of a bet contest without negative points. That should have been a possibility since the very beginning.

[Dunadan 1,103]

48 minutes ago, LDOG said:

What I had in mind was: you're given x points to distribute and when you lose a bet you lose points from the total points you earned with the bets you won. This way people will think twice before throwing 10s around without considering much consequences.

 

No, it would make no difference. 

[LDOG 2,418]

hace 1 hora, Dunadan dijo:

 

No, it would make no difference. 

 

Are you suggesting that maybe the thing is that there are more "easy" bets than there should be?   

 

Or maybe putting a limit to the 10 and 9-pointers that can be placed would balance things better? 

[OlympicsFan 858]

3 hours ago, LDOG said:

Last year I thought we had to spice things up and have a "lost bet, points deduction" kind of system.

 

Like, right now the system is: you're given x maximum points to distribute and when you lose a bet you only lose points from that maximum of points.

 

What I had in mind was: you're given x points to distribute and when you lose a bet you lose points from the total points you earned with the bets you won. This way people will think twice before throwing 10s around without considering much consequences. It's a good strategy but breaks the spirit of the contest in a sense. Obviously, with this alternative system I would give a lot more points to initially distribute so very different strategies can take shape ("high risk, high pay" vs "conservative distribution", etc).

 

 

I was already thinking about it for Pyongyang but I had to make that bet contest quickly so I couldn't give shape to it. Also, I'm not exactly a mathematics genious so I could be terribly wrong in my ideas.

 

But now we have wumo taking over this, so I'm sure he will come up with a better points system

 

 

Maybe your problem is that you don't know enough about the subject to realize that it's in fact not "throwing 10s around"?

I bet 10 points on 16 different questions and i only got the following 2 wrong:

Cross-country:

3: I bet 10 points that Norway would have 5 athletes in sprint finals. If it wouldnt have been for Skistadt's fall in the semifinal, i would have been right. Sorry, that i didnt see that coming ...

Ski jumping:

4: I bet 10 points that Kraft wouldnt win 3 medals. Would have been right here as well if it wouldnt have been for that joke normal hill competition (or if Aschenwald would have gotten 0.5 more points from some judge ...).

 

The trick is to filter out the "safe" bets and then to use as many points as possible on them. Seems like a quite obvious strategy to me, but apparently it isn't.

In the end you have to play the game. I didn't make the rules. If you dont like them, then dont participate or participate but dont cry about them afterwards just because you didnt know how to take advantage of them.

[Dunadan 1,103]

34 minutes ago, LDOG said:

 

Are you suggesting that maybe the thing is that there are more "easy" bets than there should be?   

 

Or maybe putting a limit to the 10 and 9-pointers that can be placed would balance things better? 

 

I'm saying that if you decide to deduce points for lost bets instead of giving 0 points nothing would change: the best strategy would be the same, the ranking would be same (a user who in this last contest scored N points with this new rule would score N-(200-N) points and someone would probably go in the negative but the ranking would be the same).

 

I would keep the current points system but fix the number of 10,9,8,...2,1 points bets that each user has to place.

For example if there are 50 questions each user would have to place five 1-point bets, five 2-points bets,...., five 9-points bets and five 10-points bets.

If there are 60 questions each user would have to place six 1-point bets, six 2-points bets and so on.

[Wumo 3,002]

2 minutes ago, Dunadan said:

 

I'm saying that if you decide to deduce points for lost bets instead of giving 0 points nothing would change: the best strategy would be the same, the ranking would be same (a user who in this last contest scored N points with this new rule would score N-(200-N) points and someone would probably go in the negative but the ranking would be the same).

 

I would keep the current points system but fix the number of 10,9,8,...2,1 points bets that each user has to place.

For example if there are 50 questions each user would have to place five 1-point bets, five 2-points bets,...., five 9-points bets and five 10-points bets.

If there are 60 questions each user would have to place six 1-point bets, six 2-points bets and so on.

 

This is one of the systems I had in mind to introduce and replace the old one with. 

[LDOG 2,418]

hace 2 horas, OlympicsFan dijo:

 

The trick is to filter out the "safe" bets and then to use as many points as possible on them. Seems like a quite obvious strategy to me, but apparently it isn't.

In the end you have to play the game. I didn't make the rules. If you dont like them, then dont participate or participate but dont cry about them afterwards just because you didnt know how to take advantage of them.

 

 

First, I didn't participe in this one or in the Pyeongchang one. So I'm not "crying" because I had no dog in this. I'm just trying to help figure out a system that makes the biggest number of bets count, because that way the contest is more entertaining in my very personal opinion (though I think most users will agree with me on that point). I don't care if you or Dunadan win them from here to the end of time, that is not the issue. You are not the only two trying that strategy anyway. 

 

Second, I organized 2 of them. So I saw everyone's posts back then and of course I know what you've been doing. Also, because you've been very outspoken about your strategy since day 1. Not exactly a secret.

 

Edited March 4, 2019 by LDOG

[Dunadan 1,103]

I agree that the system must be changed. This time I skipped over half the questions immediately (wrongly because a couple of them deserved a 10 points bet, but still I got the second place...). Now it's clear to everyone that if you want to score the most points you have to follow this strategy.

[heywoodu 15,146]

Changing a system or not, I'd just like to thank @wumo26 for taking the time to organize it, I like regular prediction contests, but am an even bigger fan of stuff like 'special' bet contests  

[Henry_Leon 1,398]

20 hours ago, wumo26 said:

Well, I can reveal that other users do use the same strategy as you. 

I may understand why so few took part. First, it's an unofficial contest, so many maybe didn't want to take part for that reason. Second, it was announced at bit late, as you write. 

I also think more people would have participated if they could have contributed with questions for the contest. I will definitely do more to involve users next time. I may also introduce a new system next time I decide to host a contest.  

 

I agree; personally the second reason more than other reasons (plus the UEFA games upcoming in the same week..... )

 

 

With the upcoming Biathlon IBU World Championships 2019 (3 days!!) , for not create confusion, maybe this thread could be renamed in Prediction Discussion for Biathlon Manager Game

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[PREDICTION CONTESTS] Biathlon Manager Game

 

 

Edited March 4, 2019 by Henry_Leon