| M80kg (3,56) | M92kg (4,42) | M92+kg (4,42) | |
| 1 | Kelyn Cassidy (IRL) | Georgii Kushitashvili (GEO) | Danabieke Bayikewuzi (CHN) |
| 2 | Christian Pinales (DOM) | Jamar Talley (USA) | Fernando Arzola (CUB) |
| 3 | Robby Gonzales (USA) | Narek Manasyan (ARM) | Ayoub Ghadfa Drissi El Aissaoui (ESP) |
| 4 | Hussein Iashaish (JOR) | Julio Castillo (ECU) | Dusan Veletic (SRB) |
| 5 | Rafayel Hovhannisyan (ARM) | Loren Alfonso Dominguez (AZE) | Luka Pratljacic (CRO) |
| 6 | Yojerlin Cesar (FRA) | Rogelio Romero (MEX) | Ahmed Hagag (AUT) |
| 7 | Ramtin Musah (GBR) | Vagkan Nanitzanian (GRE) | Davit Chaloyan (ARM) |
| 8 | Vladimir Mironchikov (SRB) | Sadam Magomedov (SRB) | Petar Belberov (BUL) |
| 9 | Mindaugas Gediminas (NOR) | Mateusz Bereznicki (POL) | Dmytro Lovchynskyi (UKR) |
| 10 | Juan Ortiz (COL) | Soheb Bouafia (FRA) | Danis Latypov (BHR) |
| 11 | Omurbek Bekzhigit Uulu (KGZ) | Marlon Hurtado (COL) | Martin McDonagh (IRL) |
| 12 | Gradus Kraus (NED) | Mucahit Ilyas (TUR) | Narendar Berwal (IND) |
| 13 | Gazimagomed Jalidov (ESP) | Sanjeet Kumar (IND) | Gerlon Congo (ECU) |
| 14 | Kim Jin-jea (KOR) | Victor Schelstraete (BEL) | Ifeanyi Onyekwere (NGR) |
| 15 | Meysam Gheslaghi (IRN) | Marko Calic (CRO) | Nigel Paul (TTO) |
| 16 | Andrey Csemez (SVK) | Adrian Paoletti (AUS) | Willys Mendoza (COL) ? |
| 17 | Weerapon Jongjoho (THA) | Alexander Okafor (GER) | Rouzbeh Safari (IRN) |
| 18 | Go Wakaya (JAP) | Odai Al-Hindawi (JOR) | Stylianos Roulias (GRE) |
| 19 | Andrei Arodoaie (ROU) | Erkin Adylbek Uulu (KGZ) | Jonas Jazevicius (LTU) |
| 20 | Delil Dadaev (GER) | Daniel Guzman (DOM) | Mukhammad Abroridinov (TJK) |
| 21 | Keven Beausejour (CAN) | Yan Zak (ISR) | Keddy Agnes (SEY) |
| 22 | Abhimanyu Loura (IND) | Noori Silab (AFG) | Javier Cruz (MEX) |
| 23 | Peter Pita Kabeji (COD) | Serhii Horskov (UKR) | Gilbert Kabamba (COD) |
| 24 | Sebastien Terteryan (DEN) | Regarn Simbwa (UGA) | Doni Foreman (CAN) |
| 25 | Nekruz Shalimov (TJK) | Jung Ha-Neul (KOR) | Oskar Safaryan (POL) |
| 26 | Kristyan Nikolov (BUL) | Ali Fathigovashini (IRN) | Ugur Aydemir (TUR) |
| 27 | Taj Kagho (NZL) | Johnathan Tetteh (GHA) | Kennedy St. Pierre (MRI) |
| 28 | Hector Aguiire (MEX) | David Michalek (SVK) | Younes Bouhdid (MAR) |
| 29 | Ganzorig Dalai (MGL) | Nyamdorj Otgonbold (MGL) | Kim Doh-yeon (KOR) |
| 30 | Osaro Aimufua (AUT) | Koppany Feher (HUN) | Byeknur Khali (MGL) |
Second World Olympic Qualifiers
| M51kg (4,51) | M57kg (3,63) | M63.5kg (5, 65) | M71kg (5,70) | |
| 1 | Amit Panghal (IND) | Carlo Paalam (PHI) | Erdenebat Tsendbaatar (MGL) | Nishant Dev (IND) |
| 2 | Roscoe Hill (USA) | Rujakron Juntrong (THA) | Erislandy Alvarez (CUB) | Zeyad Eashash (JOR) |
| 3 | Yuberjen Martinez (COL) | Asror Vokhidov (TJK) | Radoslav Rosenov (BUL) | Wanderson de Oliveira (BRA) |
| 4 | Kiaran McDonald (GBR) | Owain Harris-Allan (GBR) | Mukhamedsabyr Bazarbayuly (KAZ) | Aidan Walsh (IRL) |
| 5 | Rogen Ladon (PHI) | Sachin Siwach (IND) | Alexy de la Cruz (DOM) | Yurii Zakharieiev (UKR) |
| 6 | Federico Serra (ITA) | Yosef Iashaish (JOR) | Emilio Garcia (USA) | Shamser Shaidov (TJK |
| 7 | Mehdi Parviz (IRN) | Shamil Askerov (AZE) | Jose Viafara (COL) | Jorge Cuellar (CUB) |
| 8 | Attila Bernath (HUN) | Artur Bazeyan (ARM) | Shion Nishiyama (JAP) | Lewis Richardson (GBR) |
| 9 | So Chonryong (PRK) | Samuel Kistohurry (FRA) | Ali Habibanezhed (IRN) | Eskerkhan Madiev (GEO) |
| 10 | Kim In-kyu (KOR) | Daniyal Shahbaksh (IRN) | Viliam Tanko (SVK) | Damian Durkacz (POL) |
| 11 | Dmytro Zamotayev (UKR) | Munarbek Seitbek Uulu (KGZ) | Aleksej Sendrik (SRB) | Sarkhan Aliyev (AZE) |
| 12 | Salah Ibrahim (GER) | Jose de los Santos (DOM) | Alexandru Paraschiv (MDA) | Byamba-erdene Otgonbaatar (MGL) |
| 13 | Rafael Lozano Jr (ESP) | Yoel Finol (VEN) | Malik Hasanov (AZE) | Kasra Tahmasebi (IRN) |
| 14 | Azat Makhmetov (BRN) | Roland Veres (HUN) | Joseph Commey (GHA) | Alexander Rangel (COL) |
| 15 | Ramon Nicanor Quiroga (ARG) | Batuhan Ciftci (TUR) | Yaroslav Khartysz (UKR) | Steve Kulenguluka (COD) |
| 16 | Luis Delgado (ECU) | Kharkhuu Enkh-amar (MGL) | David Grevorgkian (GER) | Bayramdurdy Nurmuhammedov (TKM) |
| 17 | Sakhil Alakhverdovi (GEO) | Van Duong Nguyen (VIE) | Patris Mughalzai (GBR) | Angel Llanos (PUR) |
| 18 | Ergunyal Sebahtin (BUL) | Miguel Vega (MEX) | Gianluigi Malanga (ITA) | Deniel Kretter (GER) |
| 19 | Ala Eddine Zidi (TUN) | Shukur Ovezov (TKM) | Louis Richarno Colin (MRI) | Gurgen Madoyan (ARM) |
| 20 | Sean Mari (IRL) | Aider Abduraimov (UKR) | Oier Ibarreche (ESP) | Frederick Kiwitt (LBR) |
| 21 | Theophilus Allotey (GHA) | Lucas Fernandez (URU) | Saparmyat Odayev (TKM) | Tiago Muxanga (MOZ) |
| 22 | Bareshem Harutyunyan (ARM) | Tryagain Ndevelo (NAM) | Abdelhaq Nadir (MOR) | Sergio Martinez (ESP) |
| 23 | Anvarzhan Khodziev (KGZ) | Caleb Tirado (PUR) | Chol Man Choe (PRK) | Alban Beqiri (ALB) |
| 24 | Hamza Esaadi (MOR) | Michele Baldassi (ITA) | Narek Hovhannisyan (ARM) | Peerapat Yeasungnoen (THA) |
| 25 | Huthaifa Eashash (JOR) | Pawel Brach (POL) | Cleisson dos Santos (BRA) | Junior Petanqui (CAN) |
| 26 | Gankhuyag Gan-erdene (MGL) | O Tae Bom (PRK) | Abhinash Jamwal (IND) | Vasile Cebotari (MDA) |
| 27 | Mauricio Ruiz (MEX) | Jean Caicedo (ECU) | Jonas Jonas (NAM) | Merven Clair (MRI) |
| 28 | Chuang Liu (CHN) | Ping Lyu (CHN) | Mizan Aykol (TUR) | Miroslav Kapuler Ischenko (ISR) |
| 29 | Mohamed Moziane (ALG) | Denis Bril (GER) | Arsen Chabyan (AUT) | Kelvin Soquessa (CZE) |
| 30 | Omer Ametovic (SRB) | Armando Sigauque (MOZ) | Chriztian Pitt Laurente (PHI) | Il Hyok Kim (PRK) |
Second World Olympic Qualifiers
| W60kg (3,30) | W66kg (4,37) | W75kg (4,30) | |
| 1 | Amy Broadhurst (GBR) | Grainne Walsh (IRL) | Naomi Graham (USA) |
| 2 | Namuun Monkhor (MGL) | Arundhati Choudhary (IND) | Valentina Khalzova (KAZ) |
| 3 | Miroslava Jedinakova (SVK) | Kristina Kuluhova (SRB) | Busra Isildar (TUR) |
| 4 | Rimma Volossenko (KAZ) | Navbakhor Khamidova (UZB) | Love Holgersson (SWE) |
| 5 | Agnes Alexiusson (SWE) | Emilie Sonvico (FRA) | Citlalli Ortiz (MEX) |
| 6 | Oh Yeonji (KOR) | Leonie Mueller (GER) | Veronika Nakota (HUN) |
| 7 | Vilma Viitanen (FIN) | Blessing Oraekwe (NGR) | Aziza Zokirova (UZB) |
| 8 | Ankushita Boro (IND) | Camila Camilo (COL) < | Baison Manikon (THA) |
| 9 | Felicitas Ganglbauer (GER) | Stephanie Pineiro (PUR) | Rady Gramane (MOZ) |
| 10 | Ayaka Taguchi (JAP) | Ani Hovsepyan (ARM) | Seong Su-yeon (KOR) |
| 11 | Loredana Marin (ROU) | Jessica Triebelova (SVK) | Patricia Mbata (NGR) |
| 12 | Sara Beram (CRO) | Anastasia Chernokolenko (UKR) | Shirleidis Orozco (COL) |
| 13 | Shoira Zulkaynarova (TJK) | Luna Beeloo (NED) | Karolina Makhno (UKR) |
| 14 | Vladislava Kukhta (HUN) | Hwang Hyo-sun (PRK) | Gabriele Stonkute (LTU) |
| 15 | Anna Jenni (SWI) | Ivanusa Gomes Moreira (CPV) | Vivianne Pereira (BRA) |
| 16 | Aslahan Mehmedova (BUL) | Natalya Bogdanova (KAZ) | Melissa Gemini (ITA) |
| 17 | Hanna Okhrei (UKR) | Sara Kali (CAN) | Hergie Bacyadan (PHI) |
| 18 | Camila Pineiro (URU) | Joana Nwamerue (BUL) | Irina Schonberger (GER) |
| 19 | Esmeralda Falcon (MEX) | Ganzorig Badmaarag (MGL) | Monika Langerova (CZE) |
| 20 | Ana Starovoitova (LTU) | Saida Lahmidi (MOR) | Maryelis Yriza (VEN) |
| 21 | Sheila Martinez (ESP) | Griselda Duran (MEX) | Elizabeth Andiego (KEN) |
| 22 | Klaudia Budasz (POL) | Sheilla Yama (PNG) | Ornella Sathoud (GHA) |
| 23 | Rashida Tagirova (UZB) | Cara Whararau (NZL) | Erdenatuya Enkhbaatar (MGL) |
| 24 | Terris Smith (CAN) | Beatrise Rozentale (LAT) | Deane Reed (NZL) |
| 25 | Carolina Ferreira (POR) | Seon Su-jin (KOR) | Duina Martinez (ESP) |
| 26 | Tianna Guy (TTO) | Shahla Allahverdiyeva (AZE) | Aynur Rzayeva (AZE) |
| 27 | Thi Linh Ha (VIE) | Brigitte Mbabi (COD) | Kimberly Gittens (BAR) |
| 28 | Ragad Alnaimi (KSA) | Krista Kovalainen (FIN) | Eseta Flint (TGA) |
| 29 | Teretia Toauriri (KIR) | Nilufar Boboyorova (TJK) | Diem Quynh Luu (VIE) |
| 30 | Zann Chee (SGP) | Friza Asiko Anyango (KEN) | Kitija Zaberga (LAT) |
Second World Olympic Qualifiers
Top 30 per weightclass.
(Number of qualifiers, number of entries) in the brackets.
| W50kg (4,34) | W54kg (4,33) | W57kg (4,33) | |
| 1 | Daina Moorehouse (IRL) | Huang Hsiao-wen (TPE) | Maud Van der Toorn (NED) |
| 2 | Rinka Kinoshita (JPN) | Sandra Drabik (POL) > | Esra Yildiz (TUR) |
| 3 | Nazym Kyzaibay (KAZ) | Im Aeji (KOR) | Jennifer Fernandez (ESP) |
| 4 | Nataia Kuczewska (POL) | Jennifer Lehane (IRL) | Nilawan Techaseup (THA) |
| 5 | Tetyana Kob (UKR) | Johana Gomez (VEN) | Elise Glynn (GBR) |
| 6 | Pihla Kaivo-oja (FIN) | Enkhjargal Mungunsetseg (MGL) | Xu Zichun (CHN) |
| 7 | Aldana Florencia Lopez (ARG) | Romane Moulai (FRA) | Alyssa Mendoza (USA) |
| 8 | Savannah Stubley (GBR) | Scarlett Delgado (CAN) | Bolortuul Tumurkhuyag (MGL) |
| 9 | Zlatislava Chukanova (BUL) | Shera Mae Patricio (USA) | Jaismine (IND) |
| 10 | Nina Radovanovic (SRB) | Anastasia Kovalchuk (UKR) | Satsuki Yoshizawa (JPN) |
| 11 | Jung Joo-Hyung (KOR) | Bojan Gojkovic (MNE) | Nikolina Cacic (CRO) |
| 12 | Susan Aguas (ECU) | Ulzhan Sarsenbek (KAZ) | Claudia Nechita (ROU) |
| 13 | Tayonis Cedeno (VEN) | Ekaterina Sycheva (ARM) | Jin Hyejeong (KOR) |
| 14 | Thi Ngoc Tran Nguyen (VIE) | Estefani Almanzar (DOM) | Guadalupe Solis (MEX) |
| 15 | Kang Su Hyang (PRK) | Islem Ferchichi (TUN) | Anastasia Molochko (UKR) |
| 16 | Anush Grigoryan (ARM) | Perla Bazaldua (MEX) | Marie Al-Ahmadieh (CAN) |
| 17 | Sofie Vinther Rosshaug (DEN) | Marta Lopez Del Arbol (ESP) | Jinhyang Paek (PRK) |
| 18 | Fatima Herrera (MEX) | Mikoto Harada (JAP) | Lucie Sedlackova (CZE) |
| 19 | Mckenzie Wright (CAN) | Melissa Mortensen (DEN) | Olga Papadatou (GRE) |
| 20 | Guo Yi Xuan (TPE) | Zeynab Rahimova (AZE) | Szabina Szucs (HUN) |
| 21 | Zainab Adeshina (NGR) | Zeina Nassar (GER) | Andjela Brankovic (SRB) |
| 22 | Rita Soares (POR) | Hanna Lakotar (HUN) | Canan Tas (GER) |
| 23 | Nicole Durikova (SVK) | Sara Svennson (SWE) | Mahsati Hamzayeva (AZE) |
| 24 | Danisha Mathialagan (SGP) | Denisse Bravo (CHI) | Ana Milisic (SWI) |
| 25 | Marjona Savrieva (AZE) | Fotima Begmuradova (TJK) | Laura Jakovleva (LAT) |
| 26 | Ruhafzo Haqnazarova (TJK) | Angelyris Lopez (PUR) | Josefien Betist (SLE) |
| 27 | Margret Tembo (ZAM) | Anjani Teli (NEP) | Minerva Montiel (PAR) |
| 28 | Aylin Jamez (GUA) | Amina Faki (KEN) | Marine Camara (MLI) |
| 29 | Mihaela Badescu (ROU) | Ornella Havyarimana (BDI) | Feofaaki Epenisa (TGA) |
| 30 | Kathreen Sterling (HAI) | Bele phekie (BOT) | Huyen Tran Nguyen (VIE) |
| Rank (Total) | Country | Projected qualifiers | Already qualified | Projected Total |
| 2 | Ireland | 5 | 6 | 11 |
| 5 | USA | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| 9 | Great Britain and NI | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| 13 | India | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 13 | Poland | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Kazakhstan | 2 | 7 | 9 |
| 5 | China | 2 | 7 | 9 |
| 5 | Turkey | 2 | 7 | 9 |
| 13 | Cuba | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 17 | Philippines | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 17 | Tajikistan | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 24 | Mongolia | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 32 | Armenia | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 2 | Brazil | 1 | 10 | 11 |
| 12 | Thailand | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 13 | Chinese Taipei | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 21 | Serbia | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 21 | Azerbaijan | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 24 | Japan | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 24 | Mexico | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 32 | Ukraine | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 32 | Croatia | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 32 | Georgia | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 32 | Sweden | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 32 | Jordan | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 32 | Netherlands | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 49 | South Korea | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 49 | Argentina | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 49 | Finland | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 49 | Iran | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 49 | Slovakia | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 1 | Australia | 0 | 12 | 12 |
| 4 | Uzbekistan | 0 | 10 | 10 |
| 9 | France | 0 | 8 | 8 |
| 9 | Italy | 0 | 8 | 8 |
| 17 | Colombia | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| 17 | Algeria | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| 21 | Bulgaria | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 24 | Spain | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 24 | Egypt | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 24 | Morocco | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 24 | Nigeria | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 24 | Hungary | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 32 | Dominican Republic | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 32 | Belgium | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 32 | Canada | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 32 | Ecuador | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 32 | North Korea | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 32 | Puerto Rico | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 32 | Venezuela | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 32 | Germany | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 32 | Norway | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 32 | Refugee team | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 49 | Vietnam | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 49 | Denmark | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 49 | DR Congo | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 49 | Mozambique | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 49 | Panama | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 49 | Romania | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 49 | Samoa | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 49 | Tunisia | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 49 | Zambia | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 49 | Kosovo | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Apologies for the weird looking table but hopefully it makes sense. I wanted to include the number of boxers in contention per country as well but I ran out of time. I have Ireland having an amazing tournament but that is very much the upper threshold for Ireland's potential here. Ireland, GB, India, Poland and USA all look likely to have good tournaments here but to varying extents that is a reflection of previous dissapointing tournament(s). Japan, Bulgaria and maybe Mongolia stand out amongst those who may be dissapointed with results here if this scenario plays out but I haven't looked at this too closely yet and obviously its just a projection which even if things go well won't prove remotely accurate.
M92kg
Qualifiers- 4
Bracket 1
My pick- Narek Manasyan (3) 
.
Other Contenders- Sadam Magomedov (8) 
, Soheb Bouafia (10) 
.
Interesting bracket to start with multi time European medallist starting as slight favourite. He will meet Odai Al Hindawi (18) 
or the awkward Victor Schelstraete (14) 
in the last 16. Meanwhile recent European medallist Sadam Magomedov opens his account against Nyamdorj Otgonbold (29) 
or German based Noori Silab (22) 
. Soheb Bouafia has to come through Jung Ha Neul (25) 
and Serhii Horskov (23) 
to meet Magomedov in the last 16. All three of Manasyan, Magomedov and Bouafia will believe they should take this quota albeit Bouafia has lost to the other two. Magomedov’s win over Bouafia was a split decision win in Serbia so I’m not sure it actually means much in this context. I think Manasyan is the favourite here but in 3 attempts going back to Tokyo qualification he has never quite managed to get over the line and reach the Olympics despite his talent and that potential fight with Schelstraete would make me very nervous.
Bracket 2
My pick- Mateusz Bereznicki (9) 
Other Contenders- Murcahit Ilyas (12) 
, Adrian Paoletti (16) 
, Alexander Okafor (17) 
.
We lack a clear favourite in this weightclass and there are numerous potential outcomes here. Mateusz Bereznicki off the back of an impressive performance at the 1st world qualifier opens up with a very tough fight against Adrian Paoletti who has a legitimate chance to qualify all 13 weight classes for Australia. The winner of that fight would then meet Peter Alwanga (31) 
followed by Alexander Okafor who has had some bad losses of late. On the bottom half of this bracket Murcahit Ilyas makes his return to the Turkish squad after an extended absence. He has two tricky fights between him and the quota fight probably against Yan Zak (21) 
and Daniel Guzman (20) 
. Bereznicki has reached quota fights at both of the previous qualifying tournaments so he seems like the reliable pick to qualify but I’m not sure about this particular one.
Bracket 3
My pick- Loren Alfonso Dominguez (5) 
.
Other Contenders- Julio Castillo (4) 
.
The veteran Julio Castillo has one last shot at making his fourth Olympics and while the draw could have been kinder its not too bad. He starts off with David Michalek (28) 
before meeting Erkin Adylbek Uulu (19) 
followed by Marlon Hurtado who he has beaten before and as such Castillo should expect to at least reach the quota stage. Loren Alfonso Dominguez has a similar path difficulty wise meeting Johnathan Tetteh (27) 
, Marko Calic (15) 
and Sanjeet (13) 
on his way to probably meeting Castillo. Alfonso probably is the more talented boxer and while I hope Castillo can get over the line I will reluctantly pick the Tokyo 81kg medallist.
Bracket 4
My pick- Georgi Kushitashvili (1) 
.
Other Contenders- Jamar Talley (2) 
, Rogelio Romero (6) 
, Vagkan Nanitzanian (7) 
.
None of the first 3 brackets were that strong and sure enough the last bracket is nightmarish. Jamar Talley has a straightforward path to the quarter finals with just the unknown Ali Fathigovashini (26) 
and probably Regarn Simbwa (24) in his path. Meanwhile Vagkan Nanitzanian meets Rogelio Romero in a heavyweight (hahaha I’m so funny 
) last 32 fight before the winner meets Georgi Kushitashvili who has looked much better at 92kg winning Strandja and only losing to Lazizbek Mullojonov in Busto Arsizio than he did at 80kg at European games. Kushitashvili has beaten Nanitzanian twice already this year and I suspect would also beat Romero. I would give Jamar Talley a legitimate shot at beating Kushitashvili though and whoever wins that fight will be a medal contender in Paris.
Projected qualifiers- Narek Manasyan , Mateusz Bereznicki , Loren Alfonso Dominguez , Georgi Kushitashvili .
M92+kg
Qualifiers- 4
Bracket 1
My pick- Fernando Arzola (2) 
.
Other Contenders- Narendar (12) , Gerlon Congo (13) .
Fernando Arzola has been very flaky since winning silver at 2023 worlds but the draw has seemingly been kind to him here. He opens up against Javier Cruz (22) before meeting Byeknur Khali (30) for a spot in the qualifying fight. Narendar and Gerlon Congo have a fascinating opening encounter with Narendar having won this matchup on a split decision when they met last year. Whoever wins would then face either Gilbert Kabamba (23) 
, Willys Mendoza (16?) 
or Younes Bouhdid (28) 
. Mendoza is a strange one as he replaces Christian Salcedo who would have been one of the strongest boxers in this division at this tournament and I can’t find anything on him, no results, no nothing so 
. Anyway the likely scenario is that we end up with Arzola fighting Narendar for a quota with Arzola having won this matchup comfortably before.
Bracket 2
My pick- Davit Chaloyan (7) .
Other Contenders- Petar Belberov (8) 
, Danis Latypov (10) 
, Martin McDonagh (11) 
.
I’ve think I’ve picked Davit Chaloyan to qualify twice before but hopefully third times the charm. He has a tough fight first up against the experienced Danis Latypov before facing Rouzbeh Safari (17) or Keddy Agnes (22) 
if he can come through Latypov. Meanwhile veteran Petar Belberov who replaces Yordan Hernandez (with the two Bulgarians having beaten and lost to eachother this year) meets the improving Martin McDonagh in the last 16. This should end up being Chaloyan vs Belberov in which case you would have to trust Chaloyan but an upset in this bracket wouldn’t shock me.
Bracket 3
My pick- Danabieke Bayikewuzi (1) 
Other Contenders- Ayoub Ghadfa Drissi El Aissaoui (3) 
, Dusan Veletic (4) , Ahmed Hagag (6) 
.
Danabieke Bayikewuzi was denied qualification in Italy by a cut and should start off here with a win against Jonas Jazevicius (19) 
. I don’t know where Ahmed Hagag has been so far during qualification but anyway he is here now and meets Dusan Veletic in a high quality fight. Veletic beat him at European champs with the potential caveat that those championships were in Serbia. Veletic vs Bayikewuzi should be a fascinating fight in the last 16 but I would lean towards backing the Chinese boxer. Recent European champion (beating Veletic in the final) Ayoub Ghadfa Drissi El Aissaoui has an easier path to the quarter finals meeting Doni Foreman (24) 
(what happened to Alexis Barriere?) and probably Muhammad Abroridinov (20) 
. It would have been very surprising at the start of qualification if either of Ghadfa Drissi El Aissaoui or Bayikewuzi missed out but at least one of them will now.
Bracket 4
My pick- Luka Pratljacic (5) .
Other Contenders- Dmytro Lovchynskyi (9) , Ifeanyi Onyekwere (14) 
.
This should be European bronze medalist Luka Pratljacic’s quota to lose. He meets Mark Ahondjo (31) 
or Kennedy St. Pierre (27) 
in his first fight before meeting the winner of Dmytro Lovchynskyi vs African champion Ifeanyi Onyekwere. That fight will be Pratljacic’s toughest as he would then meet has been Nigel Paul (15) 
or world youth bronze medallist Stylianos Roulias (18) for an Olympic spot.
Projected qualifiers- Fernando Arzola , Davit Chaloyan , Danabieke Bayikewuzi , Luka Pratljacic .
M51kg
Qualifiers- 4
Bracket 1
My pick- Rogen Ladon (5) 
.
Other Contenders- Federico Serra (6) 
, So Chonryong (9) 
, Rafael Lozano (13) , Azat Makhmetov (14) .
This should be a competitive bracket with numerous interesting fights. In the opening round we will see Federico Serra face Luis Delgado (16) and Rogen Ladon faces World youth and European bronze medallist Rafael Lozano son of two time Olympic medallist of the same name who replaces the out of form Martin Molina . Ladon and Serra should come through creating a rematch of their fight at the first world qualifying tournament where Ladon came out on top. The other half of the bracket sees a rematch from Asian games with So Chonryong who went on to win bronze meeting Azat Makhmetov. So could cause an upset in the quota fight but I will back the much more experienced Ladon
Bracket 2
My pick- Roscoe Hill (2) .
Other Contenders- Yuberjen Martinez (3) .
Another rematch with Roscoe Hill meeting Yuberjen Martinez who he beat in the quarter finals at Panam games. Martinez was desperately unlucky to not get the decision against Alejandro Claro at the first world qualifier and given Hill’s shaky form he absolutely has a shot here. The winner of that fight would then face Huthaifa Eshish (25) or Ergunyal Sebahtin (18) for a spot in the quarter final. I’m happy with this draw for Sean Mari (20) given he was never likely to qualify and he at least gets a couple of easy fights before meeting Gan-erdene Gankhuyag (26) for a spot in the quota fight. Roscoe Hill or Martinez would be massive favourites but Hill has bottled two quota fights in which he was favoured already so you never know.
Bracket 3
My pick- Mahdi Parvizi (7) .
Other Contenders- Salah Ibrahim (12) , Dmytro Zamotayev (11) , Ramon Nicanor Quiroga (15) 
.
By far the most open bracket in this draw with a lot of potential scenarios here. Dmytro Zamotayev is probably the most established boxer in this bracket and he opens his account against Mohamed Moziane (29) 
before a tough fight against Ramon Nicanor Quiroga. He would then face either David de Pina (31) 
or Omer Ametovic (30) for a spot in the quarter final. Meanwhile the top of this bracket sees Salah Ibrahim meet Mahdi Parvizi who is very inexperienced but took a couple of impressive wins at the great silk way tournament in Azerbaijan a couple of months ago. The winner of that fight would then meet Hamza Esaadi (24) for a place in the quarter final. In a bracket lacking top class boxers I am going to back the potential of Parvizi but if it does end up coming down to the more established European boxers, Zamotayev has beaten Ibrahim in the past.
Bracket 4
My pick- Amit Panghal (1) .
Other Contenders- Kiaran Macdonald (4) 
.
After Deepak underperformed at the previous qualifiers India return to their 2019 world silver medallist Amit Panghal. His first fight will likely be against Mauricio Ruiz. Kiaran MacDonald is a very good boxer but unfortunately the draw has just not broken his way at any of these qualifying tournaments and he will likely miss the Olympics despite only losing to major medal contenders. MacDonald has a tricky opening fight against Kim Inkyu (10) to set up a last 16 fight with Amit. Attila Bernath (8) 
is the favourite to meet Amit in that quarter final but an array of boxers with the potential to cause an upset including Theophilus Allotey (21) , Anvarzhan Khodzhiev (23) and one of Ala Eddine Zidi (19) 
, Baresham Harutyunyan (22) and newcomer Chunag Liu (28) lie in Bernath’s path.
Projected Qualifiers- Rogen Ladon , Roscoe Hill , Mehdi Parvizi , Amit Panghal .
M80kg
Qualifiers- 3
Bracket 1
My pick-Kelyn Cassidy (1)
Other Contenders- Christian Pinales (2) , Juan Ortiz (10) .
So surprisingly no 2021 world silver medallist Aleksei Alfiorau 
so Kelyn Cassidy inherits the top placed ranking for this draw. The draw isn’t terrible but it could have been a lot better for Cassidy with a tricky enough opening round fight against Delil Dadaev (20) followed by either Kristyan Nikolov (26) or youngster Abhimanyu Loura (22) before a meeting with Olympian Gazi Jalidov (13) . On the other side of the bracket Christian Pinales returns after missing the first world qualifier and should comfortably make the last 16 where he will meet Juan Ortiz who impressed at the first qualifier but is unlikely to beat Pinales. Cassidy vs Pinales should be a cracking fight but I do think Cassidy’s counterpunching abilities should allow him to prevail but make no mistake Pinales is a very good boxer.
Bracket 2
My pick- Rafayel Hovhannisyan (5)
Other Contenders- Kim Jin Jea (14) , Meysam Geshalghi (15) .
A much weaker bracket than the top one and as a result there is a quota that is there for the taking. Meysam Geshlaghi and Kim Jin Jea will meet first up which would have been a great fight to see as it may have set a record for most punches thrown in a fight with both boxers very willing to just stand and throw. The winner will face Sebastien Terteryan (24) 
who is attempting to join is twin brother Nicolai in Paris but as such is competing way above his natural weight and Geshlaghi or Kim are not the type of opponent Terteryan would have wanted to see. The victor of that fight would then face Ganzorig Dalai (29) or recent 75kg African champion Edwin Okongo’O (33) for a spot in the quarter final. The other side of the draw is fairly straightforward for 2022 86kg European silver medallist Rafayel Hovhannisyan whose toughest early fight will be in the last 16 against either Keven Beausejour (21) who he beat last time or Go Wakaya (18) 
. Hovhannisyan is the safest pick here and if he could then get over the line this would somewhat redeem what has been a terrible qualification campaign for Armenia.
Bracket 3
My pick- Hussein Iashaish (4) .
Other Contenders- Yojerlin Cesar (6) , Gradus Kraus (12) 
.
2022 Asian champion and two time Olympian Hussein Iashaish is in a strong position to at least make the semis. Noa Hadjit (38) and either Nekruz Salimov (25) or Andrei Aradoaie (19) 
are Iashaish’s early matchups and none of them should trouble him. At the top of this draw recent European bronze medallist Yojerlin Cesar meets Taj Kagho (27) 
and Hector Aguirre (28) to set up a likely last 16 fight with Gradus Kraus. That fight will be an interesting style mismatch with the technician Cesar up against the bruiser in Kraus. Kraus rarely wins these type of fights though. Iashaish will be severely tested by Cesar but I will back the more experienced individual and go with Iashaish
Bracket 4
My pick- Robby Gonzalez (3) .
Other Contenders- Ramtin Musah (7) , Vladimir Mironchikov (8) , Mindaugas Gediminas (9) 
, Omurbek Bekzhigit Uulu (11) .
It is last chance saloon for 2021 world champion Robby Gonzales. He should meet a boxer he beat on his way to that world title in bronze medallist Vladimir Mironchikov in the last 32 provided Mironchikov can beat home boxer Weerapon Jongjoho. Joining him in the last 16 will be either Andrej Csemez (16) who beat him in Busto Arsizio, Omurbek Bekzhigit Uulu who also was beaten by Gonzales at 2021 worlds or Ramtin Musah who is a quality boxer and replaces Taylor Bevan after Bevan’s disappointing first world qualifier. Musah is probably the strongest of the 3 and given Gonzales’ dodgy form I wouldn’t be surprised if Musah then beat Gonzales although Gonzales did beat him when they met last year. At the top of this bracket Mindaugas Gediminas has to navigate matchups with Erik Mendoza (31) 
, Yusuf Changalawe (34) 
and African champion Peter Pita (23) to reach the quarter finals where he is unlikely to beat Gonzales.
Box offs
Kelyn Cassidy vs Rafayel Hovhannisyan, Hussein Iashaish vs Robby Gonzales
Cassidy Hovhannisyan would be a rematch of a fight from the first world tournament where Cassidy won comfortably and if Cassidy does lose it will be before this point. Similarly if Gonzales gets this far he will qualify. That would leave Hussein Iashaish facing Rafayel Hovhannisyan who similar to Yojerlin Cesar I would like to back Hovhannisyan but I think Iashaish’s experience should prevail.
Predicted Quotas- Kelyn Cassidy , Robby Gonzales and Hussein Iashaish .
Predictions part two (W50kg, W60kg, W75kg, M51kg, M80kg, M92kg, M92+kg)
W50kg
Qualifiers- 4
Bracket 1
My pick- Natalia Kuczewska (4) .
Other Contenders- Nazym Kyzaibay (3) 
, Tetyana Kob (5) , Savannah Stubley (8) .
Interesting bracket this one. Kazakhstan return to their Asian games selection Nazym Kyzaibay after Alua Balkibekova disappointed in Busto Arsizio. Kyzaibay is a former Asian bronze medallist but I’m not that confident in her abilities. She has a tough last 32 fight against Jung Joohyung (11) who lost to Balkibekova at the first would qualifying tournament. She would then face the winner of Savannah Stubley vs 2022 world youth silver medallist Sofie Rosshaug (17) . Kyzaibay should at least reach a quota fight but I would give Stubley a legitimate shot against her. Meanwhile Tetyana Kob meets Natalia Kuczewska. Kob seems to be past her best and lost a split decision to Kuczewska in Hungary earlier this year. The winner would then face either Thi Ngoc Tran Nguyen (14) 
(who surprisingly got selected over world silver medallist Thi Tham Nguyen although injury may have been a factor) and Kang Su Hyang (15) who like the other North Koreans, it is unclear how good she is. If indeed we do get Kyzaibay vs Kuczewska for a ticket to Paris, I honestly have no idea who would win that one.
Bracket 2
My pick- Daina Moorehouse (1) .
Other Contenders- Rinka Kinoshita (2) .
This draw could have been worse for Daina Moorehouse but obviously drawing Rinka Kinoshita isn’t ideal. Moorehouse opens her account with Anush Grigoryan (16) before a straightforward last 16 fight. The most interesting fight early in this bracket is Tayonis Cedeno (13) 
vs Zlatislava Chukanova (9) who are both talented but not quite good enough to make the Olympics. The winner would then face Rinka Kinoshita. For me Kinoshita and Moorehouse are the two strongest boxers here in this weightclass and they should produce a cracking fight. Kinoshita does start with a significant height and reach advantage but having fallen agonisingly short at the two previous qualifying tournaments I’ll back Moorehouse to get over the line here.
Bracket 3
My pick- Phila Kaivo Oja (6) 
.
Other Contenders- Guo Yi Xuan (20) 
, Zainab Adeshina (21) .
Pilha Kaivo Oja might well have gotten the best draw of anyone at this tournament. Her only challenges come against Guo Yi Xuan in the last 32 and then either recent African silver medallist Zainab Adeshina or Marjona Savrieva (25) in the subsequent qualifying match. Kaivo Oja hasn’t yet won a fight at either of the qualifying tournaments so far but should comfortably win the quota here.
Bracket 4
My pick- Aldana Florencia Lopez (7) .
Other Contenders- Nina Radovanovic (10) , Susan Aguas (12) .
The bottom two brackets in this draw really aren’t very strong but I guess it is good to see two relatively smaller boxing countries have a great chance of qualifying. Aldana Florencia Lopez at least has a couple of potential hurdles opening her account against Mckenzie Wright (19) before meeting Olympian and European bronze medallist Nina Radovanovic in the last 16. The other half of the bracket will likely be decided by a last 16 fight between Susan Aguas and Fatima Herrera (18) both of whom Florencia Lopez should be much too good for.
Quota predictions- Natalia Kuczewska , Daina Moorehouse , Pihla Kaivo Oja , Aldana Florencia Lopez .
W60kg
Qualifiers- 3
Bracket 1
My pick- Namuun Monkhor (2) .
Other Contenders- Rimma Volossenko (4) , Agnes Alexiusson (5) , Ankushita Boro (8) , Felicitas Ganglbauer (9) .
Unsurprisingly given this weightclass has already allocated the most quotas so far, this division is a little barren at this tournament although I am still a little bit surprised that there are only 30 entries and there is a serious lack of depth beyond the top 10 or so. Then again this top bracket is quite strong with a number of interesting fights. Agnes Alexiusson should cruise to the quarter finals with Rashida Tagirova (23) 
the only potential resistance. Two intriguing fights on the other side of the draw sees Felicitas Ganglbauer meet Rimma Volossenko and Namuun Monkhor meet Ankushita who has moved down from 66kg. While there is certainly potential for upsets in both fights I would expect Volossenko and Monkhor to meet in the last 16. Volossenko did win this matchup when they met 3 years ago but Monkhor’s recent form is I think more impressive although I may be overthinking that a bit. Both Monkhor and Volossenko have beaten Alexiusson and therefore should go on to make the semifinals.
Bracket 2
My pick-Miroslava Jedinakova (3) .
Other Contenders- Ayaka Taguchi (10) , Sara Beram (12) .
This bracket is a little bit more straightforward with Ayaka Taguchi and Sara Beram replaying a fight from Busto Arsizio which Taguchi won on that occasion. The winner would then face Miroslava Jedinakova who was the unfortunate boxer who made the semis but missed out on a quota at the first world qualifier. A last 16 fight between Camila Pineiro (18) 
and Ana Starovoitova (20) should decide who Jedinakova would then face in the quarter finals and both would be much easier to beat than Taguchi or Beram.
Bracket 3
My pick- Vilma Viitanen (7) .
Other Contenders- Loredana Marin (11) , Shoira Zulkaynarova (13) , Vladislva Kukhta (14) , Anna Jenni (15) 
, Hanna Okhrei (17) .
Well well, what a selection of mediocrity. Vilma Viitanen made the surprising decision to move up to Lightweight for the final qualifier although given this draw that decision may pay off for her. Her last 16 fight will be against either Shoira Zulkaynarova who is coming down from the other direction weight wise and may pose a threat physically or Hanna Okhrei. On the other side of the bracket Loredana Marin faces Vladislava Kukhta in what to be fair is an interesting fight with Anna Julia Jenni awaiting the winner provided she can beat Klaudia Budasz (22) . I would expect this quarter final to end up being Viitanen vs either Marin or Kukhta.
Bracket 4
My pick-Amy Broadhurst (1) . (That just looks wrong)
Other Contenders- Oh Yeonji (6) (I mean not really but I feel like I should put someone here).
So Amy Broadhurst’s (from now on will be referred to as the traitor) defection to the Brits has made this division much more interesting from an Olympic medal perspective and she should not have any trouble qualifying from this tournament. I thought the traitor would have been the favourite for gold in this division had Ireland picked her over Kellie Harrington so I don't really see how I can not still think that just because she is representing the most despicable country of all. She unfortunately is probably going to save British boxing funding because their other medal chances are slim (I'm sure GB boxing will claim credit for Cindy Ngamba 
as well if she makes the podium.). Anyhow, The traitor meets Sheila Martinez (21) followed by Aslahan Mehmedova (16) or Terris Smith (24) in what will both be very one sided fights. Meanwhile Oh Yeonji should beat Tokyo Olympian Esmeralda Falcon (19) but is unlikely to trouble the traitor.
Box-offs
Namuun Monkhor vs Miroslava Jedinakova, Vilma Viitanen vs the traitor.
I’m not sure who wins between Monkhor and Jedinakova but I’ll lean Monkhor although I would back either to then beat Viitanen.
Projected qualifiers- Namuun Monkhor , Amy Broadhurst , Miroslava Jedinakova .
W75kg
Qualifiers- 4
Bracket 1
My pick- Busra Isildar (3) .
Other Contenders- Rady Gramane (9) 
, Baison Manikon (8) 
.
All of the top boxers have already qualified in this weight class which has lead to a number of quite open brackets for this tournament. Recent European medallist Busra Isildar will meet Melissa Gemini (16) in the last 16 for a spot in the qualifying fight. 2022 world bronze medallist Rady Gramane will meet an opponent she beat at that tournament in Seong Su Yeon (10) . She would then face either hometown hopeful Baison Manikon or Gabriele Stonkute (14) . I think Isildar is the more talented and should qualify but Gramane is more proven.
Bracket 2
My pick- Love Holgersson (4) .
Other Contenders- Veronika Nakota (6) , Aziza Zokirova (7) .
Another open bracket pitting the experienced Love Holgersson against the 2022 70kg world youth finalists Veronika Nakota (gold) and Aziza Zokirova (silver). Holgersson meets Nakota first before facing Hergie Bacyadan (17) if she can win against Nakota. Aziza Zokirova only needs to beat Maryelis Yriza (20) to reach the quarter finals. I’m picking the experience over the youth as I think it is slightly too soon for Nakota or Zokirova but if things fully click for either of them, Holgersson is eminently beatable.
Bracket 3
My pick- Valentina Khalzova (2) .
Other Contenders- Karolina Makhno (13) , Shirleidis Orozco (12) .
Once again a fairly open and somewhat difficult to project bracket. Straight off the bat Valentina Khalzova meets Karolina Makhno with the more established Kazakh having the more impressive recent form. Shirleidis Orozco is a newcomer to the Colombian squad and is seemingly the pick of the bottom half of this bracket although she will have to conquer Monika Langerova (19) 
or Ornella Sathoud (22) . It would be a big shock if Orozco went on to beat Khalzova though.
Bracket 4
My pick- Citlalli Ortiz (5)
Other Contenders- Naomi Graham (1) , Patricis Mbata (11) .
Another interesting bracket in what seems to have been a very even draw in this weight class. Former world medallist Naomi Graham looks past her best and doesn’t have the easiest of openers against Viviane Pereira (15) 
followed by an equally tricky fight against Patricia Mbata. If Graham can refind her form somewhat and win those first two fights she would then meet Citlalli Ortiz assuming Irina Schonberger (18) or Elizabeth Andiego (21) don’t cause an upset. Citlalli Ortiz upset the form guide by comfortably beating Graham at Panam games but she hasn't backed that level up with her performances since. It is possible Graham could avenge that result but given the margin of victory on that occasion I don’t think Graham is making it back to the Olympics.
Projected qualifiers-Busra Isildar , Love Holgersson , Valentina Khalzova , Citlalli Ortiz .
M71kg
Qualifiers- 5
Bracket 1
My pick- Shamser Shaidov (6) .
Projected losing quarter finalist- Aidan Walsh (4) .
Other Contenders- Zeyad Eashash (2) , Eskerkhan Madiev (9) , Yurii Zakharieiev (5) .
First of all 70 entries is ludicrous and I do think some countries underestimated the quality that would still be left in the draw at this tournament. Anyway, I’ve officially given up on 2021 world champion Yurii Zakharieiev. I've picked him twice and he has failed me twice so while I still believe he probably is the most talented boxer in this bracket he will not fail me again. Of course given that he is now up against Irish opposition I’m sure he will all of sudden be back to his best. He has an awkward opening fight against Merven Clair (27) leading up to a likely last 16 fight with Aidan Walsh provided Walsh can beat either Youcef Yaiche (33) or Salvatore Cavallaro (39) . Walsh may or may not be in form, I have no idea what to expect from him really but I trust him more than Zakharieiev right now. The top half of this bracket is strong with Zeyad Eashash opening his account against 2021 world bronze medallist Alban Beqiri (23) 
before a likely fight against Kelvin Soquessa (29) . Meanwhile recent European silver medallist Eskerkhan Madiev has to navigate two opening fights before meeting the winner of surprise German selection Deniel Krotter (18) and recent Elorda cup winner Shamser Shaidov who is Russian but apparently was born in Tajikistan. Shaidov has mixed results in Russia and therefore is hard to guage and it is possible he comes unstuck especially against Eashash but like Walsh and Zakharieiev I don’t exactly trust Eashash either. This is a bit of a projection and its possible this prediction looks terrible in a weeks time but as I said I don’t really trust Shaidov's competition.
Bracket 2
My pick- Wanderson de Oliveira (3) .
Projected losing quarter finalist- Jorge Cuellar (7) .
Other Contenders- Damian Durkacz (10) , Sarkhan Aliyev (11) , Steve Kulenguluka (15) , Frederick Kiwitt (20) 
.
A fascinating group of contenders here with Wanderson the slight favourite amongst them. His second fight against Stephen Zimba (35) 
or Bruno Fernandes de Barros (34) won’t be easy but his first major test should come in the last 16 against Sarkhan Aliyev or Damian Durkacz. Steve Kulenguluka was robbed of the African quota and it is good to see he at least gets a second bite at the cherry here. He will likely meet Jorge Cuellar although Cuellar does have to beat pro WBF world champion Frederick Kiwitt. I hope Kulenguluka can come through this fight but I’ll go with the safer pick and pick Cuellar. I am picking Wanderson to qualify here but I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a shock or two in this bracket.
Bracket 3
My pick- Nishant Dev (1) .
Projected losing quarter finalist- Gurgen Madoyan (19) .
Other Contenders- Byamba-Erdene Otgonbaatar (12) , Bayramdurdy Nurmuhammedov (16) 
.
The draw has been pretty kind to Nishant Dev and not all that much stands between him and a quota. His toughest fight before a quota match will be in the last 32 against the winner of Bayramdurdy Nurmuhammedov and Byamba-Erdene Otgonbaatar. He would then face Nuradin Rustambek Uulu (31) or Peerapat Yesungoen (24) in the following round. The identity of who he would then face him is up in the air with Gurgen Madoyan starting as slight favourite over Junior Petanqui (25) , Vasile Cebotari (26) 
, Kim Il Hyok (30) and maybe even Nidal Foqahaa. None of them stand much of a chance against Nishant though.
Bracket 4
My pick- Lewis Richardson (8) .
Projected losing quarter finalist- Alexander Rangel (14) .
Other Contenders- Kasra Tahmasebi (13) , Angel Llanos (17) 
.
It pains me that Lewis Richardson got this good a draw. He will have some challenges against the relatively unknown Kasra Tahmasebi before meeting Miroslav Kapuler (28) or Tiago Muxanga (21) prior to a tough enough quota fight. Alexander Rangel is the likely opposition in that quota fight but he does have to beat Angel Llanos or Sergio Martinez (22) . It would be a major failure for the British if Richardson can’t come through here.
Box offs
Aidan Walsh vs Jorge Cuellar, Gurgen Madoyan vs Alexander Rangel.
I would back Rangel to beat Madoyan but I’m not so sure about Walsh vs Cuellar. I think I would lean towards Walsh and I think either would go on to beat Rangel
Quota prediction- Shamser Shaidov , Wanderson de Oliveira , Nishant Dev , Lewis Richardson , Aidan Walsh .
M57kg
Qualifiers- 3
Bracket 1
My pick- Rujakron Juntrong (2) .
Other Contenders- Shamil Askerov (7) , Munarbek Seitbek Uulu(11) , Roland Veres (14) , Nguyen Van Duong (17) .
Rujakron Juntrong returns to the Thai selection for his home qualifiers after Sarawet Sukthet was given and nearly took the opportunity at the first world qualifier. His toughest fight may well be against Shamil Askerov who got the nod for selection ahead of Umid Rustamov . The winner of that fight would then likely face either Pawel Brach (25) or Caleb Tirado (23) for a spot in the quarter final bout. The other half of the bracket is interesting with opening round fights between Lucas Fernandez (21) and Roland Veres, two Tokyo Olympians in Jean Caicedo (27) and Van Duong Nguyen and Michele Baldassi (24) facing Munarbek Seitbekk Uulu. Seitbek Uulu should navigate that fight and the feisty Armando Sigauque (30) which would lead to a last 16 fight against Caicedo or Nguyen for the right to probably lose to Juntrong or Askerov although Seitbek Uulu did beat Juntrong back in 2019. I will back the home boxer to come through here but there will be numerous close fights in this bracket.
Bracket 2
My pick- Asror Vokhidov (3) .
Other Contenders- Daniyal Shahbakhsh (10) , Yoel Finol (13) , Enkh-Amar Kharkhuu (16) .
Asror Vokhidov despite not qualifying was very impressive at the first world qualifier and while not easy the draw has been fairly kind to him here. His toughest challenge before a quarter final will be against either Yoel Finol or 2022 European youth champion Aider Abduraimov (20) . The other side of the bracket is nearly a straight fight between Daniyal Shabakhsh and Enkh-amar Kharkhuu but the young Denis Bril (29) could potentially cause an upset in the following round. On current form Vokhidov would be a comfortable favourite to beat either Shabakhsh or Kharkhuu.
Bracket 3
My pick-Owain Harris-Allan (4) .
Other Contenders- Sachin(5) , Samuel Kistohurry (9) .
India made a bunch of changes to their squad for this tournament after perceived failures at the previous two qualifiers and Bernard Dunne leaving as high-performance director but I don’t really understand this one of returning to Sachin over world bronze medallist Mohammed Hussamuddin and I think it could cost them a quota. Sachin’s path to a quarter final involves either Miguel Vega (18) or Frederik Lundgaard Jensen (32) followed by probably Batuhan Ciftci (15) . The other of the side of this bracket is interesting with Olympian Samuel Kistohurry who returns to the French squad after missing the first two qualifying tournaments having to navigate an awkward opener against George Molwantwa (35) 
and then an even awkwarder fight against either Tryagain Ndevelo (22) 
or O Tae Bom (26) . His reward for winning those would be a fight with Owain Harris-Allan who has a couple of tricky openers himself. I think Harris-Allan is in the better form than Kistohurry. To be fair to Sachin he did take an impressive tournament win at Strandja and I don’t know which way a fight between him and the Brit would go. Then again I would have picked Hussamuddin if he was here.
Bracket 4
My pick- Carlo Paalam (1) .
Other Contenders- Yousef Iashash (6) , Artur Bazeyan (8) , Jose de los Santos (12) .
Olympic 52kg silver medallist Carlo Paalam was unlucky at the first qualifier with a bodyslam againt Andrey Bonilla leaving him with basically one arm for his subsequent fight against Shukur Ovezov (19) and he will almost immediately get the chance to avenge that loss with him likely to meet with Ovezov again in the last 32. 2022 European champion Artur Bazeyan has been terrible so far in his attempts at qualifying but has the chance to right that somewhat here with a fascinating encounter with Yousef Iashash who has beaten Bazeyan before provided they can both navigate relatively straightforward opening fights. Iashash is a surprise selection for the Jordanian team given Mohamed abu Jajeh talents but Iashash is an accomplished boxer in his own right. It is tough to see either Iashash or Bazeyan beating Paalam but you never know. Jose de los Santos only has to beat 54kg African champion Amadu Mohamed (31) and Ping Lyu (28) to presumably reach the quarter finals but like Iashash and Bazeyan is likely to be outmatched against Paalam although that should be a very entertaining fight
Box-offs
Rujakron Juntrong vs Asror Vokhidov, Carlo Paalam vs Owain Harris-Allan
Quota prediction- Rujakron Juntrong , Carlo Paalam , Asror Vokhidov .
I am confident in picking Paalam but the top semifinal is a coin flip for me maybe leaning Juntrong with home advantage. I do think either would beat Harris-Allan though.
M63.5kg
Qualifiers- 5
Bracket 1
My pick-Erdenebat Tsendbaatar (1)
Projected losing quarter finalist- Alexandru Paraschiv (12) .
Other Contenders- Radoslaw Rosenov (3) .
First of all a word for the poor John Ume (NR) 
and Mikael Broman (NR) who with 65 entries are the unfortunate pair who have to box a last 128 fight. I think Ume will win that one. Anyway the top half of this bracket is quite barren with a last 32 fight between recent European silver medallist Alexandru Paraschiv and Louis Richarno Colin (19) likely to decide who reaches a quota fight although Abdelhaq Nadir (22) may have something to say about that in the subsequent round. Asian games champion Chinzorig Baatarsukh has been suspended for doping but Mongolia have a worthy candidate to attempt to take his place in 2 time Olympian and former world bronze medallist Erdenebat Tsendbaatar. He does have to navigate an early matchup with Saparmyat Odayev (21) to set up a high quality last 16 fight with Radoslav Rosenov who himself has to beat David Grevorgkian (16) . It is strange that a boxer of Rosenov’s calibre is an underdog in the final qualifying tournament but he has had his chances to qualify. That should be one of the fights of the tournament and the victor should win the quota from this bracket.
Bracket 2
My pick- Emilio Garcia (6)
Projected losing quarter finalist- Ali Habibinezhad (9) .
Other Contenders- Joseph Commey (14) , Oier Ibarreche (20) .
Emilio Garcia has been given a pretty easy draw with just commonwealth 57kg silver medallist Joseph Commey in his path to a quota fight. There Garcia should meet recent Elorda cup champion Ali Habibinezhad provided he can come through Jonas Jonas (27) and Oier Ibarreche. Not the most interesting bracket but Garcia vs Habibinezhad should be fun.
Bracket 3
My pick- Erislandy Alvarez (2) .
Projected losing quarter finalist- Mukhammedsabyr Bazarbay Uulu (4) .
Other Contenders- Viliam Tanko (10) .
Some interesting fights here but like the second bracket unlikely to be too exciting before the quota fight. Erislandy Alvarez has fights against the unproven Cleisson dos Santos (25) and probably Yaroslav Khartysz (15) . Meanwhile Mukhammedsabyr Bazarbay Uulu matches up against Chriztian Pitt Laurente (30) , the physical Narek Hovhannisyan (24) and likely Viliam Tanko who himself has to beat Gianluigi Malanga(18) . Alvarez vs Bazarbay Uulu should be a really good fight but Alvarez is the more talented boxer.
Bracket 4
My pick- Shion Nishiyama (8)
Projected losing quarter finalist- Alexy de la Cruz (5) .
Other Contenders- Jose Viafara (7) , Aleksej Sendrik (11) , Malik Hasanov (13) , Patris Mughalzai (17) .
Alexy de la Cruz and Jose Viafara are the clear cut favourites here but that was also true previously in this qualification cycle and neither converted those opportunities plus there are enough other tricky opponents to make this one quite interesting. First up for Viafara is Patris Mughalzai who earned the British selection by right on this occasion by beating 2021 world bronze medallist Reece Lynch who was injured earlier this season. Next up for Viafara is Abhinash Jamwal (26) who is a complete unknown internationally. Alexy de la Cruz needs to beat Aleksej Sendrik who himself caused an upset beating Rosenov in Busto Arsizio to set up a fight with Viafara. Alexy de la Cruz has won this matchup before so starts as favourite although his recent form has been concerning. Shion Nishiyama impressed at the previous qualification tournament and only really has Malik Hasanov or Chol Man Choe (23) between him and the quota fight. I trust Nishiyama to make it that far and I don’t trust de la Cruz or Viafara so I’m going to hedge my bets a bit and just pick Nishiyama who could beat either of them anyway.
Box-offs
Alexandru Paraschiv vs Ali Habibinezhad, Mukhammedsabyr Bazarbay Uulu Vs Alexy de la Cruz
I know this a pointless exercise because I’ll be shocked if more than 1 of these losing quarterfinalists are correct but while all these fights will be close I do think Bazarbay Uulu is the safest pick probably beating Habibinezhad in the quota fight.
Projected quotas- Erdenebat Tsendbaatar , Emilio Garcia , Erislandy Alvarez , Shion Nishiyama , Mukhammedsabyr Bazarbay Uulu .
Right predictions part 1 of 2 (well at least I really hope I get the rest done tomorrow and it only takes 2 parts)
I only got 18/49 (36.7%) right at the first world qualifier so I'm out for redemption this time out although given the high number of entries again I'll be happy enough with 50% which I think would put me over 50% for qualifying as a whole which would be ok I guess. It's interesting and counter-intuitive but it is very clear to me that the biggest factor in the difficulty of predicting these is the number of entries. You wouldn't intuitively think adding ten boxers who aren't likely to qualify would make the division harder to predict but yet it seems to.
Anyway, I'll post the 6 weightclasses (W54,W57,W66,M57,M63.5,M71) that start today/ tomorrow (I dunno its 3 am and this tournament starts in four hours, does that count as today or tomorrow) (Friday anyway) now and then hopefully do the rest tomorrow. I'm going stick with the format of predicting each of the four brackets and then addressing box-offs depending on the number of quotas available. I'll also post top 30 rankings for each of these weightclasses on the boxing Olympic rankings thread (Although no one seems to use them, ah sure I'll post them anyway.)
North Korea and Mongolia make their return after missing the first world qualifying tournament so basically everyone is here. South Africa is the biggest countries I have noticed aren't competing here but I'm sure I am missing someone.
W54kg
Quotas- 4
Bracket 1
My pick- Sandra Drabik (2) .
Other Contenders- Johana Gomez (5) , Enkhjargal Mungunsetseg (6) , Scarlett Delgado (8) , Shera Mae Patricio (9) , Ulzhan Sarsenbek (12) .
The strongest bracket comfortably in this weightclass with 6 boxers who are legitametely good enough to be at the Olympics. I think Sandra Drabik is the best boxer in this bracket but I have doubts about her ability to be consistent enough to win 4 tough fights in a row. She opens with the only last 64 fight in this division with a tricky enough matchup with Estefani Almanzar(14) which should set up a tremendous fight with Johana Gomez. The other last 32 fight on this side of this bracket sees Shera Mae Patricio face Kazakh youngster Ulzhan Sarsenbek who is only 18 and surprisingly replaces former Asian Zhaina Shekerbekova . As such Sarsenbek must be talented although her results at youth level were good but not elite. The other last 16 fight should see Scarlett Delgado meet Enkhjargal Mungunsetseg provided they can beat Amina Faki (28) and Mikoto Harada (18) respectively. Sandra Drabik will be the favourite in any of these fights individually but will be severely tested especially by Gomez and Mungunsetseg and I am very tempted to back Mungunsetseg on account of her easier path to the quota fight.
Bracket 2
My pick- Im Aeji (3) .
Other Contenders- Romane Moulai (7) .
From the strongest bracket to the weakest. Im Aeji probably deserved to qualify at the first world tournament having beaten Hsiao Wen Huang and being very unfortunate to not get the decision against hometown boxer Sirine Charaabi . Thankfully she has been granted a pretty easy path to securing her second Olympic appearance this time around meeting Zeina Nassar (21) first up before her toughest fight against Romane Moulai which should decide the quota. Zeynab Rahimova (20) is drawn against 3 of the weakest boxers here in any division and should easily progess to the quota fight but would likely be outmatched there against Im or Moulai.
Bracket 3
My pick- Hsiao Wen Huang (1) .
Other Contenders- Bojana Gojkovic (11) 
.
For the third time I will back 2023 world champion Hsiao Wen Huang to win a quota and she has a pretty straightforward path to it although I thought that last time as well. Not the easiest fight against American based Perla Bazaldua (16) before meeting the winner of Melissa Mortesen (19) and Marta Lopez (17) . Like the previous bracket Bojana Gojkovic who having tried her luck at 57kg at the first world qualifier returns to bantamweight has a ridiculously easy draw for her first couple of fights but unfortunately Hsiao Wen Huang should await in the quota fight.
Bracket 4
My pick- Jennifer Lehane (4) .
Other Contenders- Anastasiia Kovalchuk (10) , Ekaterina Sycheva (13) .
It says something about the ridiculous quality of the top bracket that none of these subsequent brackets are that strong. 2022 European champion Anastasiia Kovalchuk has been in awful form over the past year or so and with her being drawn in the same bracket as Jennifer Lehane, heres to hoping that bad form continues for one more tournament. Kovalchuk had a shock loss in her opening fight time in Italy and has been rewarded this time around with an opening fight against the exact same opposition Islem Ferchichi (15) who is an awkward opponent. Jennifer Lehane should await in the last 16 and unless Kovalchuk has a miraculous return to form that will likely be the end of her Olympic journey this time around at least. Ekaterina Sycheva is the pick of the bottom half of the bracket.
W57kg
Qualifiers- 4
Bracket 1
My pick- Maud Van der Toorn (1) .
Other Contenders- Alyssa Mendoza (7) , Bolortuul Tumurkhuyag (8) .
60kg world youth champion Maud Van der Toorn will probably end up being a 66kg at some point in her career but was remarkably effective as a massively oversized featherweight at the first world qualifier. She starts off here against Guadalupe Solis (14) before meeting Marie Al-Ahmadieh (16) . Al-Ahmadieh’s opening fight is against Josefien Betist (26) 
who appears to be Irish having won under 22 and intermediate Irish titles last year but recently won a European under 22 bronze medal with the Netherlands and is here representing Sierra Leone. It would be interesting to see her family tree. At the top of this bracket Alyssa Mendoza meets Bolortuul Tumurkhuyag in what should be a fascinating fight. The winner would then face Olga Papadatou (19) and Anastasiia Molochko (15) on their way to a quota fight. Van der Toorn would favoured against either but is still very young and inexperienced.
Bracket 2
My pick- Xu Zichun (6) .
Other Contenders- Satsuki Yoshizawa (10) , Paek Jin Hyang (17) , Claudia Nechita (11) .
This should be a competitive bracket without a clear favourite. Xu Zichun fights Paek Jin Hyang who like most of the North Koreans is still largely an unknown quantity before meeting Lucie Sedlackova (18) . On the other side of the bracket relative youth meets experience with Satsuki Yoshizawa facing Claudia Nechita with the winner meeting either Canan Tas (22) or Szabina Szucs (20) who are likely to be very evenly matched. Xu is the obvious pick here but the other 3 contenders should all believe they could win this quota.
Bracket 3
My pick- Elise Glynn (5) .
Other Contenders- Jaismine (9) .
The Brits and their easy draws. Its insufferable. Elise Glynn should cruise to a quarter final where she is virtually guaranteed to meet Jaismine who was supposed to just be a reserve for Ankushita at 60kg but as a result of Parveen’s suspension for a whereabouts violation she got drafted in at this weightclass. Glynn is better than Jaismine but you never know.
Bracket 4
My pick- Esra Yildiz (2)
Other Contenders- Jenifer Fernandez (3) , Nilawan Techasuep (4) .
Well this one is confusing. Olympian Esra Yilidz looked very good at the first qualifying tournament but lost a month ago to Andela Brankovic (21) who she now faces in her first fight. The fact that that loss came in Serbia perhaps clears things up a bit though. That would set up a fight with Jenifer Fernandez provided she herself can beat Jin Hye Jeong (13) . That Yildiz vs Fernandez fight would quite possibly be the most interesting fight in this division. The winner would then likely face hometown boxer Nilawan Techasuep unless she loses to Nikolina Cacic (11) .
W66KG
Qualifiers- 4
Bracket 1
My pick - Kristina Kuluhova (3) .
Other Contenders- Navbakhor Khamidova (4) , Leonie Mueller (6) .
Serbia’s latest Russian import starts as favourite here although she is only 20 and is largely unproven. Her path to a quota fight is quite tricky with both Natalya Bogdanova (16) and Luna Beeloo (13) capable of causing an upset. The top half of the bracket sees surprise German selection Leonie Mueller who replaces 2022 European champion Stefanie Von Berge face the winner of Navbakhor Khamidova and experienced pro Joanna Nwamerue (18) . Khamidova starts as the marginal favourite to beat Mueller and reach the quota fight but while its never a great idea to bet against the the Uzbeks I do think the young Russi.. oh wait Serbian Kuluhova should take this quota.
Bracket 2
My pick- Anastasia Chernokolenko (12) .
Other Contenders- Ivanusa Moreira (15) , Sara Kali (17) .
Interesting bracket without a clear cut favourite. I’m nervous picking a Ukrainian after the nightmarish performance they had at the first world qualifier but Chernokolenko was the only one to redeem that performance somewhat by at least reaching a quota fight. She should at the very least reach that far again with Saida Lahmidi (20) the toughest challenge in her path. On the opposite side of the bracket Ivanusa Moreira has to navigate an unknown opponent in Gricelda Duran (21) before facing Sara Kali in what should be a very competitive fight. If we do indeed get a Chernokolenko vs Moreira quota fight it would be a very tall affair and while it would be disappointing for Cape Verde if a boxer of Moreira's quality fails to qualify I think she will fall just short.
Bracket 3
My pick- Arundhati Choudhary (2) .
Other Contenders- Emilie Sonvico (5) , Camila Camilo (8) , Stephanie Pineiro (9) .
India return to their Asian Games selction of Arundhati Choudhary and while her path to a quota is tough she does start as marginal favourite. First up is Olympian Stephanie Pineiro, before a likely fight against recent European medallist Jessica Triebelova (11) who Choudhary did beat at Strandja this year. Emilie Sonvico and Camila Camilo should face off for the other spot in the quota fight provided they can navigate fights against Friza Asiko (30) and Ganzorig Badmaarag (19) respectively. I’m not sure who wins that fight but Choudhary has beaten Sonvico before. I wouldn’t shocked if any of the four I’ve listed as contenders come through to qualify here.
Bracket 4
My pick- Grainne Walsh (1)
Other Contenders- Blessing Oraekwe (7) , Ani Hovsepyan (10) , Hwang Hyo Sun (14) .
I was initially very happy with this draw for Grainne Walsh but on second viewing it is a little bit tougher than I had thought. Grainne has a straightforward opener before facing Hyo Sun Hwang whose only fight was a closer than expected loss to world and Asian champion Liu Yang at Asian games especially concerning given the level of favourable judging Chinese boxers typically got at Asian Games so it is possible albeit unlikely that Hwang is Olympic medal calibre. What follows would be an easier fight against Nilufar Boboyorova (29) . The other half of the bracket is fascinating with 2022 70kg European champion Ani Hovsepyan facing recent African champion Blessing Oraekwe. Oraekwe beat 2022 70kg world silver medallist and soon to be 2 time Olympian Alcinda Panguane to win the African games so is clearly talented. The winner of that fight would then face the victor of the New Zealand derby between Cara Wharerau (23) and Sheilla Yama (22) who have both beaten eachother in New Zealand in recent years. Grainne Walsh is by far the most proven and safest pick here but the unknown quantities of Hwang and Oraekwe scare me
Edited by Ogreman
https://boxing.athlete365.org/boxing-road-to-paris-2024/2nd-world-qualification-tournament/
They are up now. To be honest earlier than I expected
Two confirmed reallocations of two Asian games quotas, both related to doping violations.
M63.5kg- Chinzorig Baatarsukh tested positive for an anabolic steroid at Asian games, Quota gets reallocated to beaten semi-finalist Bunjong Sinsiri who Thailand interestingly hadn't selected for the 1st world qualifying tournament although he is definitely a worthy olympian.
W57kg- Parveen suspended for a whereabouts violation, Reallocation goes to beaten quarter finalist Sitora Turdibekova which means Uzbekistan now have ten quotas with a reasonable shot of adding to it next week.
Both Mongolia and India will contest the respective weightclasses at the second world olympic qualifier although Mongolia is replacing Baatarsukh with two time Olympic quarter finalist and 2019 world medallist Erdenebat Tsendbaatar .
Also somewhat unrelated but according to an article on the French federation's website, the Olympic draw just like the qualifying tournaments will not be seeded which is gauranteed to lead to some interesting medal winners.
20 hours ago, hckošice said:Never heard in my life about boxing judges which would favour a Slovak boxer over USA (especially a former world champion and kinda USA poster boy.)
+ I watched the bout life on Olympic Channel, and you know, when even both their announcers (usually USA biased) called it fair call I am quite surprised to read this from you. but, Sure, ok, it is your oppinion and you are entitled to have it.
Bandi won both first 2 rounds fairly (again both OC commentators admitted it), in the last Gonzalez was clearly much much better but it came too late for him and Bandi knew after the 2 rounds he do not need to risk anymore and at the end he did the job and kept his win.
Only Gonzalez is here to blame for being extremely passive in both first rounds and underestimated Bandi, definitely not the judges, which in opposite were surprisingly pretty fair and not "fall" under the name of the favorite and stronger/more important country.
Yeah ok, I rewatched this fight. Still think Gonzalez probably deserved to win but it was very close and wasn't clearly wrong.
To be clear my macro take on the judging throughout qualifying is that (other than host country bias which has existed at every boxing tournament ever) the judging has been remarkably unbiased. It just hasn't been very good.
On the commentary thing I don't think yer man is that good a judge of boxing fights. I have watched many a fight where it feels he seems to be commentating on an entirely different fight to what I'm watching. To be fair I have thought Nicola Adams has been fairly insightful, the other three of them I'm not so sure about.
Lastly my own judging abilities aren't very good, I mentioned the Csemez Gonzalez fight because I had been surprised by the decision and then I had also seen others elsewhere be surprised by the decision. It is completely fair to disregard my opinion on judging decisions in specific fights.
I mostly agree that the current scoring system doesn't work effectively. For me I would just change the default score for a round to 10-8 and then only close rounds be scored 10-9 and one sided rounds 10-7 rather than the current system where unless you batter the shit out of someone for three minutes straight, the score will be 10-9. This would obviously deviate from pro boxing and make the sytem more complex and being simple to understand is the primary logic behind the current scoring system but I think it would make fights more interesting and should make judging decisions more accurate
Yes, the judges here are just bad, but there were only probably a couple of decisions they actually got wrong today though (Csemez 3-2 Gonzalez and Ovezov 3-2 Shahbakhsh are the two that spring to mind but I would need to watch them again to be sure). Obviously I only saw half of a lot of fights and missed some entirely but this was the sense I got. I think the IOC is kind of using the qualifying tournaments to figure out who the bad judges are so hopefully by the Olympics the judging will be closer to competent but obviously using the qualifying tournaments to do this is far from ideal.
2 hours ago, dodge said:That and a warning being too big of a punishment.
Anyway this is what I actually wanted to address because the comentators made this mistake too. This statement is sort of true but also not really true at all. In actuality one warning (point deduction) can almost never change the result of a fight. Two and ye you have to win all three rounds for at least 3 judges to win the fight which is obviously pretty devastating but one deduction doesn't really do anything because of how ties are scored.
So disregarding 10-8s typically the possible scores are 30-27, 29-28, 28-29 and 27-30. If a judge gives all three rounds to the same boxer points deductions can never effect anything (3rd points deduction is a disqualification) so the score changes to 30-26 or 27-29 (30-25 and 27-28 with 2 warnings) not effecting the result at all. If a boxer loses 28-29 and has a points deduction then it just changes to 27-29 and again no impact on the outcome of the fight. The confusing one is when a boxer wins two rounds and has a points deduction in which the score does indeed change to 28-28 but whats crucial here is the rules regarding tied scorecards.
I don't think this is widely understood very well but the rule regarding tied scores is if the judges who have it tied can effect the outcome, then they go back to those judges and they pick a winner. Basically if the tied scores matter the relevant judges pick a winner and as such you can never end a fight with the score being 2-0, 2-1 or 1-0.
I'll use an actual example to explain this. So lets look at one of today's 57kg fights Carlo Paalam vs Andrey Bonilla . This fight ended 3-1 to Paalam after Bonilla got a point deduction for what was basically a body slam. (Paalam seemed to hurt his shoulder so hopefully he is ok) (Also its a while since I have seen a boxer as dirty as Bonilla. Would not want to have to box him.) So the judges scores ended up being 29-27 (29-28), 29-27 (29-28), 27-29 (27-30), 28-28 (28-29), 29-27 (29-28) (score with no deduction in brackets) where judges 1,2 and 5 had Paalam winning two rounds and losing one. Judge 3 having Bonilla winning all three and judge 4 having Bonilla winning 2 and losing one round. With the points deduction obviously meaning that judge 4's score was tied. All the other judges results were unaffected by the deduction. Because judge 4's score couldn't change the outcome of the fight his scorecard was simply left as a tie. If he was asked he almost certainly would have given Bonilla the fight given that he gave him 2 rounds and Paalam only one but that would still only make the score 3-2 so it is just left as a tie and the fight's score is 3-1.
If for example one more judge went in favour of Bonilla the scores in the Paalam Bonilla fight would therfore be 29-27, 29-27, 27-29, 28-28, 28-28. This fight would not end 2-1 in favour of Paalam. The two tied scores, in this hypothethical case judge 4 and 5, could cumalatively change the winner of the fight so they go back to judge 4 and 5 and they both pick a winner. Again, crucially for a fight to be 28-28 the boxer who received a points deduction has to have won two rounds for that judge and therefore that judge logically would almost always pick that boxer to win. In this scenario the score with a points deduction would be 2-3 in favour of Bonilla assuming judge 4 and 5 are logical and if the points deduction never happened the score would also be 2-3 in favour of Bonilla.
To emphasize this any fight where with tied scores the fight initially is scored 2-0, 2-1 or 1-0 the tied judges choose a victor and because the only way to have a points deduction and a tied score (not including 10-8 scenarios) is where the boxer who received a deduction won 2 rounds for the tied judge/ judges. Logically one point deduction should never change the outcome of a fight.
Unfortunately for my argument and the reason I had to caveat everything above with almosts is there are occasionally counter examples and one actually happened today. In the Susan Aguas vs Marjona Savrieva fight at W50kg, Savrieva picked up a points deduction in the third round and the scores ended up being 30-26, 29-27, 28-28, 28-28 and 28-28 as a result. As explained above Aguas doesn't win the fight 2-0, the three tied judges could and should have changed the final outcome so judge 3,4 and 5 choose their winner. Judge 3 and 5 of course chose Savrieva having both given her 2 rounds. Whats strange though is on this occasion judge 4 despite giving Savrieva the first 2 rounds and Aguas only the third decided that Aguas won the fight which as I say doesn't really make much logical sense. If judge 4 believed Aguas was that dominant in the third round then that round should have been scored 10-8 by said judge. I think I have only ever seen this scenario of illogical tied decisions happen once or twice.
Apologies for probably overexplaining this a bit but it is quite counterintuitive and the morale of the story is barring stupidity or a second non standard score ( second points deduction/ 10-8 round) one solitary warning despite seemingly changing the scores a lot should never change the ultimate outcome of a fight.
Just finally there is funny quirk of this system where if you win a fight for 3 judges and 2 have it tied (be it a points deduction or a 10-8 round) you would win a split decision 3-0. However if you win a fight for just 1/2 judges and the other 3/4 have it tied. The tied judges are then evaluated again and if they all give you the fight you would then win a unanimous decision 5-0.
Obviously this doesn't effect the result or anything but I just think its funny that potentially winning one less round for 1/2 judges in rare cases can actually turn a split decision win into a unanimous win.
This happened in the Maud Van der Toorn vs Jennifer Fernadez fight where after Van der Toorn had a points deduction 1 judge had her winning (having given her all three rounds) and the other 4 judges had it tied but having given her 2 rounds gave her the fight. If she had convinced two more judges to give her all 3 rounds (Not that she deserved 3 rounds, Fernandez deservedly won round 2) she would have the fight 3-0 and it would have been a split decision and not a unanimous one.
37 minutes ago, Illya said:She is already out and I see this is coming for Zakhareiev
Yeah fair enough. Its panic time now.
13 minutes ago, Illya said:Disastrous tournament for Ukraine, I really doubt if we are able to win 1 quota
Relax man. You still have Anastasia Kovalchuk and Yurii Zakhareiev who were the boxers who were likely to win a quota in the first place. Sure the draw had opened up for Zamotayev with Molina losing and you have had a couple of dissapointing loses but this tournament is still young. If you end up with 2 quotas thats a good result and how the rest of it went doesn't matter that much. (Zakhareiev does still has a very tough path of course)
3 minutes ago, Rafa Maciel said:
Well they couldn't both lose. They are having a good early battle for who can have a more disastrous tournament.
Then again they both could salvage this. Hussamuddin, Nishant and Ankushita for India. Brits still have 5 or so in contention just their favourites are out.
45 minutes ago, Cinnamon Bun said:Will be overwhelming favourite in the 2nd qualifier I'd assume.
Not sure that he will get picked again. The Brits were very liberable with changing their squad after the first qualifier with just 4 of their 10 remaining unqualified boxers after European games keeping their spot in the team albeit there was a couple of injuries. Ramtin Musah and George Crotty are both good boxers and had a case to be selected for this one. Plus two of Kelyn Cassidy, Nurbek Oralbay and Aleksei Alfiorau won't qualify here so whoever is the British selection would still be vulnerable to a bad draw plus they could of course lose to someone like Akylov again.
| M57kg (4) | M63.5kg (4) | M80kg (4) | M92kg (4) | |
| 1 | Makhmud Sabyrkhan (KAZ) | Ruslan Abdullaev (UZB) | Turabek Khabibullaev (UZB) | Lazizbek Mullojonov (UZB) |
| 2 | Luiz Oliveira (BRA) | Erislandy Alvarez (CUB) | Aleksei Alfiorau (AIN) (BEL) | Enmanuel Reyes (ESP) |
| 3 | Carlo Paalam (PHI) | Alexy de la Cruz (DOM) | Nurbek Oralbay (KAZ) | Narek Manasyan (ARM) |
| 4 | Yilmar Gonzalez (COL) | Radoslav Rosenov (BUL) | Kelyn Cassidy (IRL) | Julio Castillo (ECU) |
| 5 | Artur Bazeyan (ARM) | Jose Viafara (COL) | Taylor Bevan (GBR) | Loren Alfonso Dominguez (AZE) |
| 6 | Jude Gallagher (IRL) | Bakhodur Usmonov (TJK) | Robby Gonzales (USA) | Aybek Oralbay (KAZ) |
| 7 | Mohamed Hussamudin (IND) | Mukhamedsabyr Bazarbayuly (KAZ) | Hussein Iashaish (JOR) | Georgii Kushitashvili (GEO) |
| 8 | Muhammed Abu Jajeh (JOR) | Somchay Wongsuwan (THA) | Weerapon Jongjoho (THA) | Jamar Talley (USA) |
| 9 | Umid Rustamov (AZE) | Emilio Garcia (USA) | Yojerlin Cesar (FRA) | Berat Acar (TUR) |
| 10 | Daniyal Shahbaksh (IRN) | Jesus Cova (VEN) | Mindaugas Gediminas (NOR) | Marlon Hurtado (COL) |
| 11 | Owain Harris-Allan (GBR) | Viliam Tanko (SVK) | Pylyp Akilov (HUN) | Sadam Magomedov (SRB) |
| 12 | Artyush Gomstyan (GEO) | Tayfur Aliyev (AZE) | Rafayel Hovhannisyan (ARM) | Soheb Bouafia (FRA) |
| 13 | Jaroslaw Iwanow (POL) < | Danyil Zamorylo (UKR) | Gazimagomed Jalidov (ESP) | Sanjeet Kumar (IND) |
| 14 | Munarbek Seitbek Uulu (KGZ) | Patris Mughalzai (GBR) | Hector Aguiire (MEX) | Vagkan Nanitzanian (GRE) |
| 15 | Jose de los Santos (DOM) | Gianluigi Malanga (ITA) | Andrei Arodoaie (ROU) | Carlos Rodriguez (MEX) |
| 16 | Asror Vokhidov (TJK) | Samuel Takyi (GHA) | Kevin Schumann (GER) | Patrick Brown (GBR) |
| 17 | Sarawet Sukthet (THA) | Salvador Flores (ESP) | Omurbek Bekzhigit Uulu (KGZ) | Marko Calic (CRO) |
| 18 | Yoel Finol (VEN) | Louis Richarno Colin (MRI) | Juan Ortiz (COL) | Adrian Paoletti (AUS) |
| 19 | Murat Yildirim (GER) | Yuri Falcao dos Reis (BRA) | Abraham Buonnarigo (ARG) | Jakkapong Yomkhot (THA) |
| 20 | Batuhan Ciftci (TUR) | Abdelhaq Nadir (MOR) | Georgii Gutsaev (GEO) | Mateusz Bereznicki (POL) |
| 21 | Jean Caicedo (ECU) | Assan Hansen (GER) | Keven Beausejour (CAN) | Erkin Adylbek Uulu (KGZ) |
| 22 | Andrey Bonilla (MEX) | Aleksej Sendrik (SRB) | Gradus Kraus (NED) | Victor Schelstraete (BEL) |
| 23 | Ping Lyu (CHN) | Ali Habibanezhed (IRN) | Kim Jin-jea (KOR) | Yan Zak (ISR) < |
| 24 | Lucas Fernandez (URU) | Alexandru Paraschiv (MDA) | Gebhard Ipinge (NAM) | Tyron Amo (GER) |
| 25 | Fikremariyam Leta (ETH) | Shiva Thapa (IND) | Chahar Lakshya (IND) | Serhii Horskov (UKR) |
| 26 | Francisco Iozia (ITA) | Mirzokhid Imamnazarov (KGZ) | Nikita Nystedt (FIN) | Daniel Guzman (DOM) |
| 27 | Van Duong Nguyen (VIE) | Mizan Aykol (TUR) | Kristyan Nikolov (BUL) | Odai Al-Hindawi (JOR) |
| 28 | Soulaimane Samghouli (MOR) | Bartlomiej Roskowicz (POL) | Carlos Gongora (ECU) | Jung Ha-Neul (KOR) |
| 29 | Oleh Chuliacheiev (UKR) | Obada Al Kasbeh (JOR) | Kaan Aykutsun (TUR) | Ayoub Maanni (MOR) |
| 30 | Shukur Ovezov (TKM) | Ahmad Shtiwi (ISR) | Meysam Gheslaghi (IRN) | Andrei Zaplitnii (MDA) |
| W54kg (4) | W66kg (4) | W75kg (4) | |
| 1 | Huang Hsiao-wen (TPE) | Chen Nien-chen (TPE) | Cindy Ngamba (REF) |
| 2 | Jutamas Jitpong (THA) | Camila Camilo (COL) | Elzbieta Wojcik (POL) |
| 3 | Anastasia Kovalchuk (UKR) | Aneta Rygielska (POL) | Citlalli Ortiz (MEX) |
| 4 | Jennifer Lehane (IRL) | Stefanie von Berge (GER) | Naomi Graham (USA) |
| 5 | Zhaina Shekerbekova (KAZ) > | Grainne Walsh (IRL) | Busra Isildar (TUR) |
| 6 | Sirine Charaabi (ITA) | Stephanie Pineiro (PUR) | Veronika Nakota (HUN) |
| 7 | Sandra Drabik (POL) > | Navbakhor Khamidova (UZB) | Sunniva Hofstad (NOR) |
| 8 | Sara Cirkovic (SRB) | Emilie Sonvico (FRA) | Baison Manikon (THA) |
| 9 | Johana Gomez (VEN) | Ani Hovsepyan (ARM) | Karolina Makhno (UKR) |
| 10 | Romane Moulai (FRA) | Angela Carini (ITA) | Valentina Khalzova (KAZ) |
| 11 | Thi Kim Anh Vo (VIE) | Milena Matovic (SRB) | Hergie Bacyadan (PHI) |
| 12 | Scarlett Delgado (CAN) | Ankushita Boro (IND) | Chantelle Reid (GBR) |
| 13 | Shera Mae Patricio (USA) | Ivanusa Gomes Moreira (CPV) | Love Holgersson (SWE) |
| 14 | Sofia Robles (ARG) | Maria Moronta (DOM) | Gabriele Stonkute (LTU) |
| 15 | Melissa Mortensen (DEN) | Anastasia Chernokolenko (UKR) | Melissa Gemini (ITA) |
| 16 | Marta Lopez Del Arbol (ESP) | Sara Kali (CAN) | Vivianne Pereira (BRA) |
| 17 | Mikoto Harada (JAP) | Krista Kovalainen (FIN) | Keidy Guevara (VEN) |
| 18 | Estefani Almanzar (DOM) | Saida Lahmidi (MOR) | Patricia Mbata (NGR) |
| 19 | Aikaterini Koutsogeorgopoulou (GRE) | Luna Beeloo (NED) | Eseta Flint (TGA) |
| 20 | Claudine Veloso (PHI) | Natalya Bogdanova (KAZ) | Monika Langerova (CZE) |
| 21 | Sara Svennson (SWE) | Jessica Triebelova (SVK) | Elizabeth Andiego (KEN) |
| 22 | Im Aeji (KOR) | Lorena Balbuena (ARG) | Aziza Zokirova (UZB) |
| 23 | Asya Ari (GER) | Emily Nakalema (UGA) | Seong Su-yeon (KOR) |
| 24 | Alondra Sanchez (MEX) | Mariana Soto (ESP) | Vasiliki Stavridou (GRE) |
| 25 | Zeynab Rahimova (AZE) | Yuliannys Alvarez (VEN) | Luisa Vasquez (COL) |
| 26 | Tatevik Khachatryan (ARM) | Suzette Ramirez (MEX) | Molka Ben Mabrouk (TUN) |
| 27 | Emma Jokiaho (FIN) | Shahla Allahverdiyeva (AZE) | Ingrith Maldonado (ECU) |
| 28 | Hanna Lakotar (HUN) | Seon Su-jin (KOR) | Diem Quynh Luu (VIE) |
| 29 | Denisse Bravo (CHI) | Andra Crinuta Sebe (ROU) | Kimberly Gittens (BAR) |
| 30 | Iulia Coroli (MDA) | Kitija Zaberga (LAT) | Angel Eyed George (TTO) |
| Rank | Country | Projected qualifiers | Already qualified | Projected Total |
| 1 | Kazakhstan | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| 2 | Uzbekistan | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| 2 | Poland | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Thailand | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Colombia | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Spain | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 4 | Ukraine | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | USA | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| 8 | Chinese Taipei | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Cuba | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 8 | Great Britain and NI | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 8 | Philippines | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Brazil | 1 | 9 | 10 |
| 13 | Ireland | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 13 | India | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| 13 | Japan | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Mexico | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Serbia | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Croatia | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 13 | Dominican Republic | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 13 | Armenia | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Refugee team | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | South Korea | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Vietnam | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | AIN (Belarus) | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 26 | Australia | 0 | 12 | 12 |
| 26 | China | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 26 | France | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 26 | Turkey | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 26 | Algeria | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| 26 | Italy | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 26 | Bulgaria | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 26 | Egypt | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 26 | Morocco | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 26 | Nigeria | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 26 | Azerbaijan | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 26 | Belgium | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 26 | Canada | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 26 | Ecuador | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 26 | Hungary | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 26 | Mongolia | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 26 | North Korea | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 26 | Tajikistan | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 26 | Denmark | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 26 | DR Congo | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 26 | Georgia | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 26 | Mozambique | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 26 | Panama | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 26 | Puerto Rico | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 26 | Romania | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 26 | Samoa | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 26 | Sweden | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 26 | Tunisia | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 26 | Venezuela | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 26 | Zambia | 0 | 1 | 1 |
This table would have been more useful pre tournament as I think 2 of my picks have already being knocked out. I have this obviously being profitable for Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan after underwhelming Asian games performances and have them moving to joint 3rd on the total number of qualifiers list. Ukraine and Poland should recover from poor European performances here although I would have expected to have GB in this category too but I have them only taking 2 quotas which is still decent just not where they expect themselves to be. Thailand, Colombia, USA and Spain (Molina lost though so one is already gone) all add to already good continental totals. Ireland, Italy India, Japan, Armenia, France and Georgia would all be dissapointed not to add more to their quotas but all are capable of outperforming this projection. I think Germany, Ghana and the Netherlands are probably the most notable countries that would still not have a quota. Germany could easily get one here I just didn't personally didn't pick Tiafack or Von Berge.
Interestingly I have Asia picking up 21 quotas Europe 18 (counting Ngamba) and 10 for the Americas. Unfortunately none for Africa although that is largely because a lot of the best boxers aren't competing here I would assume predominantly for funding reasons. Mozambique, Zambia and DR Congo to name a few could all have been in contention for quotas here.
Edited by OgremanW66kg
Bracket 1
My Pick- Navbakhor Khamidova (7) , Other contenders- Emilie Sonvico (8) , Ani Hovsepyan (9) , Ankushita Boro (12) , Maria Moronta (14) .
I tend to regard Emilie Sonvico as a good guage for this weightclass. If you're good you will beat her, If you're not you won't. She faces Ankushita Boro in the first round. Ankushita replaces Arundhati Choudhary in the Indian team who beat Sonvico at Strandja so we will get an immediate guage on if they got their selection right. Luna Beeloo (19) awaits the winner before a "semi final" against Navbakhor Khamidova. Khamidova has beaten Ankushita before and would also be the favourite against Sonvico. The other half of the bracket will be decided in a "quarter final" between Ani Hovsepyan who moves down from middleweight and Olympian Maria Moronta. Both are more natural light-middleweights than welterweights. Hovsepyan lost on the previous occasion she matched up with Khamidova and I suspect Moronta would struggle too.
Bracket 2
My Pick- Nien Chin Chen (1) , Other contenders- Milena Matovic (11) , Anastasia Chernokolenko (15) .
Should be pretty straightforward this one. Nien Chin Chen has a couple of fairly straightforward fights against Jessica Triebelova (21) and either Krista Kovalainen (17) or Saida Lahmidi (18) . Meanwhile another of the considerable number who have move down from 75kg Anastasia Chernokolenko has a tough ask to beat Milena Matovic. (The 75kg to 66kg jump isn't as big as you might think as a lot of the top middleweights box close to 70kg than 75kg.) The winner would likely face Marianna Soto (24) . Chen should comfortably win but you never know.
Bracket 3
My Pick- Camila Camilo (2) , Other contenders- Angela Carini (10) , Ivanusa Moreira (13) , Sara Kali (16) .
This should be Camila Camilo's quota to lose but she is young and still fairly inexperienced. She will be tested straight off the bat against Tokyo Olympian Angela Carini who interestingly comes back into the Italian team over Assunta Canfora who "lost" in the most bizarre RSC decision possibly ever against Camilo at last years worlds. The Italians will be out for retribution here. Whoever wins that fight would likely go on to meet Sara Kali in a "semi final" who not for the first time managed to impressivley beat 2022 world silver medallist Charlie Cavanagh CAN at Canadian trials. Unfortunately you have to go back to 2017 to find a win for her against non Canadian opposition. Ivanusa Moreira always seems to get a favourable draw for her first couple of fights. Here she meets Emily Nakalema (23) UGA who did beat her back in the Tokyo qualification tournament and likely Yulianny Alvarez (25) VEN. Nakalema or Moreira could threaten Camilo or Carini but I suspect Camilo will get the job done here.
Bracket 4
My Pick- Aneta Rygielska (3) , Other contenders- Stefanie Von Berge (4) , Grainne Walsh (5) , Stephanie Pineiro (6) .
Far and away the toughest bracket here. First up Aneta Rygielska will be tested against Stephanie Pineiro who is good but not that good. Rygielska then meets Seon Su-jin (28) followed by the winner of Natalya Bogdonava (20) vs Loren Balbuena (22) who strangely moved down from middleweight to replace Lucia Noelia Perez . On the other side of the draw we see 2022 European champion Stefanie Von Berge meet controversial Irish selection Grainne Walsh. Amy Broadhurst was injured during the selection process but may have been available here and that still leaves 2022 70kg world champion Lisa O'Rourke who beat Walsh in Poland last November. It is a strange pick but make no mistake Walsh is a very good boxer and multi European medallist, she just doesn't have the same Olympic medal threat as the other 2 well certainly not as much of a medal hope as Broadhurst. Anyway, this should be a very good fight but I would lean towards Walsh winning. (I ranked them the other way around though before they drew eachother so I clearly amn't sure). Anyway, whether it is Walsh or Von berge, Rygielska has won and lost against both of them in this Olympic cycle. I think Rygielska is the most reliable but any of the three of them could take the quota here.
W75kg
Only thirty entries so surprisingly there are 2 boxers who start the tournament just 2 fights away from a quota.
Bracket 1
My Pick- Cindy Ngamba (1) , Other contenders- Busra Isildar (5) , Veronkia Nakota (6) , Naomi Graham (4) .
Strong first bracket with 5 of my top 10 in the rankings all here especially given the lack of depth in this weightclass. Cindy Ngamba had an impressive GB open in January but is yet to break through with a major medal albeit her loses have come against elite opposition. She has a very tough path here though with the powerful but past her best Naomi Graham. We then shift to the other end of the age bracket with 2022 70kg youth world champion Veronika Nakota who already has a couple of impressive results at senior level. On the other side of the draw Busra Isildar meets one time world champion (2016) Valentina Khalzova KAZ. The likely outcome is a qualifying fight between Ngamba and Isildar which should be a fight worthy of an Olympic quota.
Bracket 2
My Pick- Baison Manikon (8) , Other contenders- Karolina Makhno (9) , Hergie Bacyadan (11) , Chantelle Reid (12) .
The draw has opened up for 2022 European under 22 champion Karolina Makhno although that isn't to say she won't be tested. At the top of this bracket Asian bronze medallist Baison Manikon who will meet Makhno in a "semi final". That fight could go either way. Meanwhile Hergie Bacyadan will meet Chantelle Reid provided Bacyadan can beat Viviane Pereira . Chantelle Reid is a strange selection by the British and I think Kerry Davis who she replaced would have qualified from this bracket. I have Bacyadan slightly ahead of Reid but we shall see. If Makhno could come through Manikon and Bacyadan/ Reid they would be the best two wins of her career. I'm going to pick the in form Manikon though. (If you couldn't tell, yes I changed my pick halfway through writing this)
Bracket 3
My Pick- Citlalli Ortiz (3) , Other contenders- Sunniva Hofstad (7) , Love Holgersson (13) , Gabriele Stonkute (14) .
Hmm a very northern European heavy bracket. 2022 81kg world champion Gabriele Stonkute meets Elizabeth Andiego (21) in her first fight before matching up against Sunniva Hofstad in the second round. There one previous meeting went Stonkute's way although it was a split decision and in Lithuania. The other side of the draw sees Citlalli Ortiz meet the experienced and very tall Love Holgersson. I mention the height thing because Ortiz is very short for a middleweight and will struggle reach wise. Then again if she can get on the inside she should win. Ortiz vs Hofstad or possibly Stonkute should be a decent fight but I am backing the Mexican.
Bracket 4
My Pick- Elzbieta Wojcik (2) , Other contenders- Melissa Gemini (15) .
Draw could not have been kinder to Elzbieta Wojcik. She does have to come through against Melissa Gemini. They uhm drew at an Italy vs Poland international last year although presumably with Italian judges. One of Eseta Flint (19) 
, Patricia Mbata (18) , Keidy Guevara (17) and Monika Langerova (20) will meet Wojcik in a qualifying fight. All four of them are fairly evenly matched but won't threaten Wojcik
Predictions part 4
W50,W57,M51,M71,M92+ bottom page 5/ page 6 in that order
W54,W60 on page 9
M57,M80 on page 11
Top 30 rankings per weightclass on the boxing Olympic rankings thread.
Right finally after many many hours and only three boxing sessions late but with every individual weight class in time of course these predictions are done. They better end up being accurate enough or I will be fuming. Honestly though with the number of entries if I hit over 50% we should be doing ok 60% would be great.
M63.5kg
Bracket 1
My pick- Somchay Wongsuwan (8) , Other contenders- Jose Viafara (5) , Jesus Cova (10) , Viliam Tanko (11) , Gianluigi Malanga (15) .
A very open draw here with some quality first round matchups Jesus Cova meets Viliam Tanko and Jose Viafara meets home boxer Gianluigi Malanga. The two south americans are both stong boxers but Malanga did beat Viafara back in 2021 and I think Tanko will get the better of Cova. Watch both of those picks be wrong. The winner of Tanko vs Cova will then face Somchay Wongsuwan. Wongsuwan is a talented boxer but picking him over 2022 Asian 67kg champion Bunjong Sinsiri is bizarre and could cost them a quota. The winner of that fight should then meet the victor of Malanga va Viafara in a "semi final" effectively for the quota. One of Bartlomiej Roskowicz (28) , Mizan Aykol (27) or Saparmyrat Odajev (33) will be the matchup in the qualifying fight but won't pose any threat. Honestly you could pick a number between 1 and 5 here to decide this. I'll reluctantly pick Wongsuwan but I don't know.
Bracket 2
My pick- Alexy de la Cruz (3) , Other contenders- Yuri Falcao (19) , Salvador Flores (17) , Assan Hansen (21) .
The draw would have struggled to be kinder to Alexy de la Cruz after he kind of butchered it against Miguel Ramirez at Panams. His toughest fight may well be his first one against Yuri Falcao before fights against Obada al Kasbeh (29) and then probably Joshua Tukamuhebwa (31) . In the other half of the bracket Salvador Flores fights Ali Qasim al Sarray (32) 
and Assan Hansen faces Alexandru Paraschiv (24) or Wang Xiangyang (NR) . Hansen and Flores should come through to set up a finely balanced "semi final". Neither are likely to push de la Cruz.
Bracket 3
My pick- Ruslan Abdullaev (1) , Other contenders- Radoslav Rosenov (4) , Mukhamedsabyr Bazarbay Uulu (7) .
This bracket will produce some good fights. At the top 2023 world champion Ruslan Abdullaev faces Shiva Thapa (25) in his opening fight followed by a very easy fight and then likely meets Mirzokhid Imamnazarov (26) in a "semi final". Meanwhile Radoslav Rosenov and new and improved Kazakh selection Mukhamedsabyr Bazarbay Uulu who plugs a whole in what was by far their weakest men's weightclass meet in their respective second bouts. For me Rosenov edges out Bazarbay Uulu. Danylo Zamorylo (13) or Aleksej Sendrik (22) would then be next opposition ahead of meeting Abdullaev. Abdullaev may not be the favourite for gold in Paris but he is still a world class operator and should beat his opponent here.
Bracket 4
My pick- Erislandy Alverez (2) , Other contenders- Bakhodur Usmonov (6) , Emilio Garcia (9) .
60kg world silver medallist Erislandy Alvarez correctly gets selected over multi Olympic medallist Lazaro Alvarez (no relation). He opens his account with a tough fight against Emilio Garcia before his toughest challenge against Bakhodur Usmonov in the following round provided Usmonov can beat the experienced Louis Richarno Colin (18) . Usmonov vs Alvarez could be one of the fights of the tournament but it is tough to pick against the Cuban. The other half of the bracket likely Tayfur Aliyev (12) meet Tokyo featherweight bronze medallist Samuel Takyi (16) with the winner likely facing Patris Mughalzai (14) who replaces the injured Reese Lynch . Any of the three could come through but none are in the same tier as Alvarez or Usmonov. I'm going to guess Takyi ends up being Alvarez' quota match opponent
M92kg
Bracket 1
My pick- Lazizbek Mullojonov (1) , Other contenders- Georgi Kushitashvili (7) , Berat Acar (9) .
Mullojonov deserved to qualify at Asian games but has a tricky enough path to secure his quota here albeit he won't be tested at all until qualification is on the line. On the other side of the bracket we have two fascinating opening round fights with Georgii Kushitashvili who looks much more comfortable at 92kg than 80kg meeting Berat Acar and in form Vagkan Nanitzanian (14) matching up with the one remaining unqualified Australian Adrian Paoletti (18) . Kushitashvili and Nanitzanian should be slight favourites and would then face Victor Schelstraete (22) and Marko Calic (17) respectively. If they come through those tests we would then get a rematch of the recent Strandja final which Kushitashvili won. Kushitashvili would be a tough opponent for Mullojonov but you would have to back Mullojonov's power.
Bracket 2
My pick- Enmanuel Reyes (2) , Other contenders- Loren Alfonso Dominguez (5) , Sadam Magomedov (11) .
An interestingly poised bracket with a heavyweight matchup between Enmanuel Reys and Loren Alfonso Dominguez two former Cubans competing against eachother for 2 countries that a very much not Cuba. Alfonso Domniguez does have to beat Yan Zak (23) first who shockingly beat him at European games. The winner would then face Carlos Rodriguez (15) who could provide a tricky test. At the bottom of the bracket Experienced Sadam Magomedov faces Tyron Amo (24) (who strangely is here ahead of Alexander Okafor ) followed by the winner of Erkin Adylbek Uulu (21) and 2022 86kg Asian champion Jakkapong Yomkhot (19) . If Magomedov does indeed come through Reyes has beaten him before. I trust Reyes to produce when it counts more than Alfonso Dominguez so I think he gets the quota here.
Bracket 3
My pick- Aibek Oralbay (6) , Other contenders- Narek Manasyan (3) , Julio Castillo (4) , Jamar Talley (8) .
A fascinatingly balanced draw with likely "semi finals" in Narek Manasyan vs Jamar Talley and Aybek Oralbay vs Julio Castillo with only Sanjeet (13) who faces 2022 Asian champion Oralbay (who regains the Kazakh number 1 spot at this weightclass). Both of the above fights should be terrific but I think Manasyan will be slightly too good for the still inexperience Talley and Oralbay may deny Castillo this shot at a third Olympics. Oralbay vs Manasyan could then legitimately go either way but I'm going to pick Oralbay despite ranking him lower.
Bracket 4
My pick- Marlon Hurtado (10) , Other contenders- Soheb Bouafia (12) , Patrick Brown (16) .
With so many quality fights above we were always going to end up with a lower quality bracket albeit one with still some interesting fights. Surprise British selection Patrick Brown has a very easy path to a quota fight. Marlon Hurtado has to go through Mateusz Bereznicki (20) and Soheb Bouafia (12) . The young Colombian will be tested against Bouafia and Brown and may prove a misguided pick but I'm going to back the young boxer here.
Edited by Ogreman
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Posted
https://www.ffboxe.com/des-jeux-pour-marquer-lhistoire/
This article on the French federation's site mentions that there will be no seeding at the Olympics.
I would much prefer if your source is right as any seeding at all makes the draw much fairer but I assume that the French federation knows what it is talking about.
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