SalamAkhi

23 minutes ago, Vic Liu said:

Not that surprise for Chinese fans. Yin Zheng has fastest start in China also start time record holder on Sidulda. This advantage will be enlarged on home track given every contender is quite familiar with. He finished as second and Yan Wengang finished as first which is also not surprised. On previous national matches on this track, Yan Wengang usually finished as 1st and Geng Wenqiang even ranked 6th on the track. 
 

If it’s not the games at home, the quotas would be decided by world ranking I guess. But it’s a home games, so the quotas are solely decided by the performance on this track.

Sure, I used Geng as a benchmark for international comparison since we don't have any way to evaluate how the Chinese athlete will fare against the likes of Dukurs or Tretiakov.

Btw do you have links for this results ?

On 1/24/2022 at 8:17 PM, Vic Liu said:

China list  

 

Men: Yin Zheng, Yan Wengang

Women: Zhao Dan, Li Yuxi

 

World Cup stage winner Geng Wenqiang also with highest rank in China lost the trials on Olympic track in Yanqing. Feeling sorry for him but I respect trials result.

Interesting. He's able to win in Europe, meaning that he's a pretty good slider with great adaptability. If two guys can beat him on this track, they must be top notch.  

Yin Zheng is like the 4th best Chinese with very few experience abroad, but it doesn't matter in the end. He's seemingly really fast at the start, if he can carry this speed to the finish line we may have a big surprise ...

 Tessa Worley (Alpine Skiing) and Kevin Rolland (Half-pipe Skiing)

4 hours ago, Styrka said:

For , 23 is in the optimistic range, so thank you for being optimistic for us !

 

As written by @SalamAkhi, I guess a total close to 15 medals will be a good result. We're going to depend a lot on biathlon: and like many other sports, there is a bit of randomness in the results (especially, if I understood correctly, the races risk to be a lottery because of the wind?).

But we have a very strong team (my only fear is that Sweden's/Norway's team will be even stronger), so I will predict between 5-8, including 2-4 gold.

 

Figure Skating : Certainly our greatest chance of a gold medal (Papadakis-Cizeron), but also our only chance of a medal at all in ice sports. 1.

Sebastien Lepape pulling a Bradbury 

4 hours ago, Styrka said:

 

Alpine Skiing : A few chances with of course Pinturault (Combined & Giant Slalom), Noël (Slalom), Faivre (Giant Slalom) and Worley for the girls (Giant Slalom). Let's say 1-3, but I could only see Clément Noël winning one gold.

Team Event is another chance.

4 hours ago, Styrka said:

 

Cross-Country Skiing : We have to bet everything on the M team classical spint thanks to it being in freestyle style. One other medal (M relay, M mass start ?)  is a long shot. 0-1.

You mean individual skating Sprint ? A podium in the Team Sprint seems possible but not very likely, but M Relay is much better than a long shot. Bronze in Pyeongchang 2018, Bronze in Seefeld 2019, Bronze in Oberstdorf 2021 ... and now with Jouve as the anchor who has greatly improved his distance skills lately.

4 hours ago, Styrka said:

 

Snowboarding : Snowboard cross with Chloe Trespeusch for the girls, and Merlin Surget for the boys (but he's much more an outsider). But I think our biggest opportunity lies in the team event, thanks you Olympics for the diversity ! 1-2.

Alright

4 hours ago, Styrka said:

 

Freestyle Skiing : Much more optimism in this sport! Perrine Laffont will be one the favourite in W moguls, same for Tess Ledeux in W Big Air / W Slopestyle (but Eileen Gu will at home ! ), Antoine Adelisse in M Big Air, and of course our strong ski cross team in men event. A shame for the women that Marielle Berger-Sabbatel will not compete, and Alizee Baron seems injured too. Let's say 3-5, with 2-3 golds.

Alright

3 minutes ago, JonPhi said:

The question is what happened to Skottheim? 56. with only two misses! They need her for the Relay, I think.

Never got the Skottheim hype train ... seems it is out of fuel.

15, to, at least, maintain the tally from 2014 and 2018. A second straight downward trend would be disastrous before Paris 2024 but that's what we deserve. 

1 hour ago, amigo9876 said:

No, Slovenia haven't quota. Polona and Lena got a personal wild card.....
If Slovenia take Ziva, she couldn't compete in Beijing.

Nope, the rules are clear, the quota are not nominative. Each NOC is free to send whichever athlete they want as long as they are < 150 IBUQP, which is not selective at all.

Same applies for Korea. Frolina brings one quota but will not go to Beijing since she's pregnant. 

Repinc has been/is still injured. She has not appeared on the international circuit this year and only raced in Slovenia in December. 

In the sprint she was beaten by K.Vindišar on equal shooting and beat Ž.Klemenčič by 26'' with two less mistakes. 

Annnnnnd she's out 

Skeleton in France is kind of dead, but the federation, who does nothing to bring it back to life, seemingly assess that preventing any TV coverage is better than putting the sport in the spotlight, even if the athlete doesn't deliver. 

The French bobsleighs are officially qualified according to the Federation, nothing on Bessard yet 

Slovenia without Klemen Bauer who's not vaccinated 

1 minute ago, NearPup said:

No, it looks like they added two quotas beyond the limit of 105. There is precedent for this (Canada got 3 men's host quotas outside the normal qualification rules in 2010).

Ok so they've got 2 extra-quota and can therefore field a relay.

2 minutes ago, prso1000 said:

2XCHN, 2XJPN, 2XKAZ, 2xMDA, POL, ROM, NZL and KOR =12 

https://assets.ctfassets.net/cz0vl36hcq0x/77wgSttsh6Bt8LffBRm6Mi/650abda9b96dc35e32281ce59b2ec98b/Annex4a_Quota_Allocation_List_MEN_150122.pdf

Look, only 11 quota via the IBUQP, and China does get further allocations via host-country (why and most of all how much ?)

Also I don't understand the "host nation places".

Is 1+2 :

* 1 via IBUQP (Cheng) + 2 wild-cards = 3 athletes. In this case there's a mistake in the tally since Cheng would be counted twice. 

* 1 + 2 = 3 wild-cards + Cheng = 4 athletes = a relay. In this case why do they write 1+2 when it's actually simply 3 ? It was said that they could get 2 wild-cards if not in the top 10 of the IBUQP, so why 1+2 

32 minutes ago, JonPhi said:

Quota Places:

https://www.biathlonworld.com/news/target-beijing-qualifying-update-2/1sGw7wryrqStVziWRjUcBb?utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=article&utm_term&utm_content=beijing&utm_campaign=JK&fbclid=IwAR1c7LRSuN3A6dWm6ly-TlNJYlnnpqgrJnWgBqIcvtqCi6eAg65c9kshVZg

They removed the quota for Latvia since it was earned by Rastorgujevs.

They added .

They removed the 2nd quota for China since it was not in the top 12, to give it via "host country places" (+1 another one).
So that's only 11 quota via the IBUQP, why is  not included ? 

1 hour ago, JonPhi said:

 Team for Antholz:

 

Women

Individual/Relay: Hettich, Hildebrand, Kebinger, Schneider, Weidel, Wiesensarter

Mass Start: Herrmann, Voigt (+qualifiers from Individual)

 

Men

Individual: Doll, Fratzscher, Horn, Kühn, Strelow, Zobel

Relay: Fratzscher, Horn, Strelow, Zobel (Replacement: Kühn, Rees)

Mass Start: Doll, Kühn, Rees (+ qualifiers from Individual)

The women's list is kinda worrying Look at this : Hildebrand (enough said) ; Wiesensarter or Weidel would have been undying journewomen a few years back, now they almost have a WC regular status ; Hettich is probably the most promising of the lot, which speaks for itself  ; Schneider and Kebinger are already 24 and their IBU Cup performances are not particularly thrilling.

Of course Preuss is still recovering, Voigt not included, but Herrmann and Hinz are reaching the end of the path with downward trajectories. 

1 hour ago, hckošice said:

Birkentals, Coltea, Guzik, Kiriyev, Lapshin and Wright will also travel to Beijing as sole representatives of their respective countries.

I know Guzik has been confirmed and Wright and Lapshin are obvious choices. But the quotas are not nominative. So for  it could also be Patrijuks, for  I guess Shamaev, Buta or Puchianu are possible choices, and Mukhin for .

Same applies for the women,  will probably send Lescinskaite.

4 minutes ago, Werloc said:

Spain without the S

Real bread.

One lap too much.

59 minutes ago, phelps said:

they have at least 10 chances, imho...

 

women's skeleton, snowboardcross, HP/SS/BA in both freestyle and snowboard, moguls, women's aerials...

 

I doubt they will miss out in all of them...

Women's skeleton is a bit optimistic. Surely Naracott has finished the season in great fashion but she hasn't been nowhere near this level ever before. 14th (+2''64) in the test event (though it was an in October and even Bos was way off the pace then).

Women's monobob is another story ... Walker will probably be selected and she's been really consistent this year.

52 minutes ago, ahjfcshfghb said:

I remember reading a French NOC document and concluding that Bessard  didn't meet the federation's requirements, so her spot would be reallocated. But now I can't find it. 

Quote

SKELETON FEMME Les skeletoneuses devront obtenir un quota IBSF et au moins un des résultats suivants : - 2 classements dans les 12 premiers en Coupe du Monde 2020/2021 ou 2021/2022 sur 2 pistes différentes si le résultat est établi sur la même saison, - Classement dans les 12 premiers au Championnat du Monde Séniors 2021, - Classement dans les 10 premiers des Championnats d’Europe Séniors 2021, seront sélectionnables de manière nominative.

She has not met those requirements. But those are FFSG standards, not NOC ones. Winter sports in France are split between two federations : the FFS (snow sports) and the FFSG (ice sports) - also the FFHG (hockey) but they are not really Olympics-related (yet) . FFSG is a mess and (kind of) a disgrace, since Albertville 1992 they've brought home 6 of the 83 WOG French medals. Despite being one of the few countries with a functional ice track, they're not able to field more than 1 skeleton athlete per sex, and this is recent. Also Bessard is the child of the track's technical manager, Defayet the child of a track's worker 

In a word I don't see them rejecting this quota. She worked hard to get it and that's some free advertising for the sport/federation, "look we qualify an athlete in skeleton". SPOIL : they did not nothing for it. 

15 hours ago, prso1000 said:

I think hopeless 

that is a 7-8 hr drive

And now a bit of extra rest 

You both look like an hopeless version of @hckošice  

@dcro @prso1000 Crnković is in the start-list for tomorrow's race ! 

According to my calculations he needs 69.1 points, which is fairly manageable. Last week this was achieved by finishing 1'30 and 1'41 behind the winner.