phelps

basically it will work like in 2016... in the qualifications thread, events and continental spots available for Europe have been already posted yesterday (or a couple of days ago)... finally, as @Benolympique wrote, the first world quota will be awarded at this year's multi-discipline shooting world champs in South Korea (then it will be the turn of the 2019 world cup stages -and clay target shooting world champs- and eventually the continental events early in 2020)...

in my opinion... 1) because that's more or less the average level of our Olympic sports (in these last 15/20 years we've always had about the same number of people practicing high level sport and the same overall budget, so it's quite logical to have a "regular" standard of performance in both quality and quantity)... and until we can find a Phelps or Scherbo, who could bring us on a higher level by winning 4/5 gold medals as an individual, it's difficult to change this trend (unless we suddenly convert our usual 50/60 medal chances with a not realistic percentage...or, on the other side, unless we're so unlucky to get less than 40/50% out of our chances)... 2) because we have a good number of chances in many sports (apart from Campriani, most of our medallists fro Rio will be back in Tokyo and some of our most promisinig youngsters have been constantly improving since then) and because the new events (2 more fencing competitions, the swimming men's 800m and women's 1500m and 8 karate weight classes just to mention those where we have already got continental and/or world medals in the last few years) will give us at least 10/12 shots more than the previous Games...

wonderful day for Italy... and how much I love things like today's... Favaretto couldn't get better than a bronze medal among the cadets, but here among the juniors wins gold (and beating 2 established world cup fencers like Martyanova, number #12 of the senior world ranking, and Ebert, number #30 of the same women's ranking)... meanwhile Di Veroli (and Biro, too) just repeated the same exact result of the cadets' competition and did make up for the disappointing performance by the other Italian guys (especially the highly expected Valerio Cuomo)...

European Juniors Championships - Women's Individual Foil Final Results: Gold: Martina Favaretto (ITA) Silver: Leonie Ebert (GER) Bronze: Marta Martyanova (RUS) & Victoria Yusova (RUS) Semifinals: Favaretto b. Martyanova 15-9 Ebert b. Yusova 15-7 Gold Medal Match: Favaretto b. Ebert 15-14

European Juniors Championships - Men's Individual Epee Final Results: Gold: Davide Di Veroli (ITA) Silver: David Nagy (HUN) Bronze: Arthur Philippe (FRA) & Alexander Biro (AUT) Semifinals: Nagy b. Philippe 15-4 Di Veroli b. Biro 15-12 Gold Medal Match: Di Veroli b. Nagy 15-8

so, once again in the girls' section, the Cadets champion wins also the Juniors event... after Guo (CAN) in the epee, it's the turn of Botello (MEX) with her sabre... and this time we have a second double medallist (Pekelman from Brazil), too...

Pan-American Juniors Championships - Men's Individual Foil Final Results: Gold: Kenji Bravo (USA) Silver: Cesar Colon Lopez (PUR) Bronze: Blake Broszus (CAN) & Gustavo Alarcon (CHI) Pan-American Juniors Championships - Women's Individual Sabre Final Results: Gold: Natalia Botello (MEX) Silver: Abigail Valdez Andrade (MEX) Bronze: Diana Gonzalez (MEX) & Luana Pekelman (BRA)

yes, to me Cutrone is a great player...he can get things out of nothing and he has a great sense of the net (in this he reminds me a lot the best Filippo Inzaghi)... Mbappè is only physical power...he's definitely overestimated (as they are most of the Frenchmen, who have the big advantage to get ready at a younger age than most of their counterparts, especially the Italian players, who normally don't get any attention and playing time when they're still in the early twenties)... about medals... as I wrote, they are not predictions..they are "targets"...and it's obvious that we won't win all of them (I also wrote it), but still we have a shot (sometimes a close one, other times a remote one)... p.s. look at last week's worlds in track cycling...we won bronze in 4 of those 5 races -both pursuit, the men's omnium and the women's madison- and we were 4th in the other...so, I don't think aiming at 5 medals is something weird nor semi-serious... p.p.s. and Ganna (individual champion and leader of our men's team pursuit) didn't even peak for this event...he's already looking at the Paris-Roubaix on the road (his words)...

France beat Italy in 2016 sub-19 Euro-final Italy beat France in 2017 sub-20 world cup eightfinals imho, France have a lot of talent, but they are not as good as they could be as a team...more in general, I also think they are overestimated as individuals...for example, Mbappè is physically stronger than Cutrone, but as an all-round forward (and even as a pure striker) the young Italian is way better (and Mbappè is estimated over 100 million €, meanwhile Cutrone isn't even always a starter for AC Milan...mysteries of football)... moreover, they usually mess things up in qualifiers and the sub-21 final tournament is here in Italy...there are many things that should go against the French... I totally agree about England... and for what concerns Brazil...they finally got what they wanted, the Olympic Gold (and they got it at home) last time round...so, I'm not even sure they will qualify (they were not at the sub-20 world cup last year)...things in South America can be very complicated for them when they don't play at home (and there are only 2 spots available)... however, as I wrote, Italy should start with ambitions, not that this means we're going to get anything (even if I'm sure that this time we have enough quality to get some success)...

European Juniors Championships - Women's Individual Epee Final Results: Gold: Federica Isola (ITA) Silver: Alexandra Predescu (ROU) Bronze: Aliya Bayram (FRA) & Elvira Martensson (SWE) Semifinals: Predescu b. Martensson 15-13 Isola b. Bayram 15-12 Gold Medal Match: Isola b. Predescu 15-6

European Juniors Championships - Men's Individual Sabre Final Results: Gold: Maxime Pianfetti (FRA) Silver: Sebastien Patrice (FRA) Bronze: Konstantin Lokhanov (RUS) & Alberto Arpino (ITA) Semifinals: Pianfetti b. Arpino 15-13 Patrice b. Lokhanov 15-14 Gold Medal Match: Pianfetti b. Patrice 15-11

let's see how Italy could place if the Games were about to start right now... Archery: 1-2 medals (we have a shot in at least 4 of the 5 events -the 3 team competitions and also in the men's individual event- but I guess we should be very happy with a couple of tallies...men's team being the brightest chance) Athletics: 1 medal (women's 20km race walk) Badminton: - Basketball: - Boxing: 2-3 medals (Mesiano and Testa among the girls should be among the medal candidates, then the men's team is rebuilding, but we still have 2-3 good fighters...the problem is that they need a very lucky draw to get to the medal stages) Canoeing slalom: hopefully 1 medal (we have some good athletes in both men and women's K1, but we should be realistic and 1 medal would be already a good success) Canoeing sprint: 1 medal (if Tacchini continues to improve and WADA do their job properly, he has some good chances in the men's C1...maybe not for gold, but he could be on the podium for sure) Cycling road: 2 medals (Italy can't start in a cycling road race without the ambition of winning at least a medal...and we also have some good bikers who could actually do it) Cycling track: 5 medals (both team pursuit races, both omnium events, women's madison ) BMX: - Mountainbike: - Diving: 2 medals (if Cagnotto & Dallapè are seriously back, otherwise...no chance) Equestrian: - Fencing: 13 medals (there's no reason we shouldn't aim to get a medal in each and every fencing event, with the women's individual foil going for 2 at least...obviously we won't get that far, but the target is there for sure)... Field hockey: - Football: 1 medal (finally I hope we're going to make amend for all the past mistakes and go for the gold in men's football) Golf: - Rhythmic gymnastics: 1 medal (the group event should give us some satisfaction after Rio's disappointing outcome) Trampoline: - Artistic gymnastics: - Handball: - Judo: 3-5 medals (Basile, Marconcini, Manzi among the boys and Giuffrida, Gwend, Galeone among the girls should be a good insurance) Modern pentathlon: 1 medal (I hope our youngsters who dominated the junior ranks in the past few years would be ready in time for Tokyo) Rowing: 3-4 medals (coxless pair and four and the double sculls -both senior and lightweight) Rugby: - Sailing: 1-2 medals (women's RS:X, mixed Nacra more than others) Shooting: 6-7 medals (all clay target events could -should- give us at least one medal, then Zublasing could eventually make up for her Rio disappointment...and if Campriani gets back at elast in the Air Rifle events...well, these could be 2 more big chances) Swimming: 6-7 medals (Paltrinieri -men's Open Water 10k, 1500m and 800m- & Detti -1500m, 800m and 400m- should do the most of the damage, then we should have also 2 or 3 more chances with Quadarella -women's 1500m- Martinenghi/Scozzoli -men's 100m breastroke- and the girls of the Open Water 10k...then if Pellegrini makes up her mind about the 200m Free, that's could be one more big chance) Synchronized swimming: - Table tennis: - Taekwondo: - (we have a lot of good young guns, but I think Tokyo will come too early for them...maybe Vito Dell'Aquila is the only real shot already in 2020...but frankly I'd be rather surprised to see any Italian on the podium) Tennis: - Triathlon: - Volleyball (and Beach Volleyball): 2 medals (both men's and women's team must at least start to win a medal, even if it's not realistic that both would succeed...then Nicolai & Lupo in men's beach volley) Water polo: 2 medals (and they should be 2 "heavy" medals) Weightlifting: - Wrestling: 1 medal (Frank Chamizo in the men's freestyle...and always in the men's freestyle, maybe even Kudiamagomedov -if he gets the Italian passport in time- could be a pleasant surprise) Surfing: - Skateboard: - (we have some amazing young talents, but I don't think we'll be allowed to steal the show to the traditional powerhouses of this activity -Brazil and USA) Sport Climbing: - (too soon to call...the new Olympic format could -should- mess things up and it's all to be seen what's gonna be the effect on the best specialists of the 3 traditional SC disciplines...however, I don't think Italy has too many chances of a medal) Karate: 3-4 medals (both Kata events -whoever will be our man/woman in that competition + Busà, Marino, Maresca, Cardin, Semeraro in the Kumite events...all of them could be real medal threats in Tokyo...if they manage to qualify -with the strict rules they have set for this first Olympic appearance of Karate, the qualification pathway will be a lot more difficult than winning a medal once in Tokyo) Total: it's well above the 50 medals...of course it will neve happen that we're gonna win them all...but those are all realistic hopes...let's say that we should be very happy with our "classic" 30 medlas (10 or more of them being Gold)... but I'm sure that this time we have the potential to do a lot better than in recent past...

having mentioned Hungary, it's quite obvious that I was referring to sprint canoeing, of course (but, as I wrote, this was just an example suggested by the starting point of the whole argument...meanwhile my consideration was more about the general rules about participation)... and I never wrote that I'm in favor of having 1 or more than 1 starter per NOC according to "random" rules... I think that all "team sports" and the individual sports with limited spots (let's say 30/40 or less) should have 1 place per NOC...meanwhile those individual sports (like athletics and swimming) where, if you're good enough to match a mid/high-level participation standard, you're qualified in any case, could have 2 spots per NOC (I'm "politically" and "ideologically" against the 3rd -and 4th, 5th etc.- spot to avoid even a marginal theoretical chance of one Country sweeping the entire podium)... that's with current rules with limited participation... in case there were no limits to the number of starters in all the individual events, then, and only in that case, I could be in favor of removing also the spots per NOC limitations (and always only talking about individual events...team events -which include also canoeing, rowing, sailing, cycling, racket sports etc. events contested by "pairs" or "crews" with 2 or 3 members- should always have just one team per NOC)... p.s. and this is just my strictly personal opinion...never thought to be "the truth"...

Today in Sochi... Junior Men's Individual Saber Semifinals Alberto Arpino (ITA) vs Maxime Pianfetti (FRA) Konstantin Lokhanov (RUS) vs Sebastien Patrice (FRA) Junior Women's Individual Epee Semifinals Alexandra Predescu (ROU) vs Elvira Martensson (SWE) Federica Isola (ITA) vs Aliya Bayram (FRA)

Pan-American Juniors Championships - Men's Individual Sabre Final Results: Gold: Andrew Doddo (USA) Silver: Christopher Walker (USA) Bronze: Brandon Romo (MEX) & Mitchell Saron (USA) Pan-American Juniors Championships - Women's Individual Epee Final Results: Gold: Guo Zi Shan (CAN) Silver: Karina Dyner Villa (CRC) Bronze: Ariane Leonard (CAN) & Yania Gavilan Sanchez (CUB)

Pan-American Cadets Championships - Final Medal Table (Individual Events only) USA, 2 / 3 / 4 MEX, 2 / 0 / 1 CAN, 1 / 1 / 3 ARG, 1 / 0 / 0 BRA, 0 / 2 / 0 CHI, 0 / 0 / 3 VEN, 0 / 0 / 1

European Cadets Championships - Final Medal Table ITA, 4 / 3 / 3 RUS, 4 / 3 / 3 HUN, 3 / 2 / 2 TUR, 1 / 0 / 1 GER, 0 / 1 / 1 BUL, 0 / 1 / 0 DEN, 0 / 1 / 0 GBR, 0 / 1 / 0 POL, 0 / 0 / 3 ROU, 0 / 0 / 3 AUT, 0 / 0 / 1 UKR, 0 / 0 / 1

to me, it's just a question related to the limited number of spots available... races with 10 or 12 boats (but it's the same for most sports) are already not really representative enough...and if we also have to look at 3 or 4 of those (boats/athletes/teams etc.) coming from the same Country...well, imho this event loses all of its attractiveness... I don't see any good reason to give powerhuses aven more advantage than what they already have...I've never liked a one-sided podium in any discipline...and I'm not gonna start now... I'd be OK with more than one (boat/athlete/team) per NOC only if there are no limited spots in the whole Olympics... but, since it's impossible to host a million people for the Games, with the current participation rules it's more than enough to have 1 spot per NOC in all these sports, which already are by their own nature "multi-athlete" in most of their events...

European Cadets Championships - Women's Team Sabre Final Results: Gold: Russia Silver: Hungary Bronze: Turkey Semifinals: Hungary b. Italy 45-44 Russia b. Turkey 45-42 Bronze Medal Match: Turkey b. Italy 45-36 Gold Medal Match: Russia b. Hungary 45-42

European Cadets Championships - Men's Team Foil Final Results: Gold: Russia Silver: Italy Bronze: Poland Semifinals: Italy b. Poland 45-44 Russia b. Hungary 41-36 Bronze Medal Match: Poland b. Hungary 45-35 Gold Medal Match: Russia b. Italy 45-39

European Cadets Championships - Men's Team Epee Final Results: Gold: Italy Silver: Germany Bronze: Ukraine Semifinals: Italy b. Ukraine 45-31 Germany b. Austria 43-37 Bronze Medal Match: Ukraine b. Austria 45-26 Gold Medal Match: Italy b. Germany 45-22

c'mon, man!!! why??? they get us crazy with "universality" and "gender equality" and then they take decisions like this that would cut the number of medallists by more than 50%??? do they want GER and HUN to win almost every medal? why not giving them directly without even wasting money and time to organize the Olympic regatta?

basically I agree with @heywoodu on the single events (maybe I'd keep out also the Individual Telemark, too)... c'mon, man!!! dear IOC...why do you want to make the Winter Olympics a farce???

Pan-American Cadets Championships - Men's Individual Epee Final Results: Gold: Ignacio Perez (ARG) Silver: Tarcisio Mendes (BRA) Bronze: Jorge Valderrama (CHI) & Joshua Zang (USA) Pan-American Cadets Championships - Women's Individual Foil Final Results: Gold: Sabrina Cho (USA) Silver: Jane Caulfield (CAN) Bronze: Katina Proestakis (CHI) & Haley Koo (USA)

sooner or later, I still hope to find somewhere in the web also the Cadets' results and complete our round-up over these Continental Youth Champs... but for now, this is all what I know... if someone could help me, I'd be very grateful...