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Feel like will be few surprises this year 

1. China 

2. USA

3. France 

4. Australia 

5. Japan 

Sports like equestrian and shooting who are favourites to win those events?

Sarah Srjostrom 50m freestyle 

Great Britain 4x200m relay men's is not locks but huge favourites 

Just now, Josh said:

Like I said,  Uta Abe in women’s 52kg judo. 
 

I don’t have the time to name all “locks” and provide my reasoning on all events that I disagree with, maybe later I’ll do another reply but of course  Mondo Duplantis in men’s pole vault,  United States women’s basketball, Katie Ledecky in women’s 1500m freestyle (and 800m freestyle if McIntosh isn’t competing in it) and  Summer McIntosh in women’s 400m freestyle.  
 

diving team sweeping the Olympic gold medals in diving is certainly possible, but they’ve never done it before. Not to mention that the Budapest 2023 World Champion in men’s 10m was Cassiel Rousseau. Along with that, I’d also give chance to a non-Chinese gold in men’s 10m synchro (been seeing a lot of good things from  Tom Daley at Doha 2024) 

 

In table tennis, is right up there in men’s/women’s team. At Chengdu 2022, Japan took China to a deciding 5th game in the men’s team semifinals, while at Busan 2024, Japan took China to a deciding 5th game in the women’s team final. I also wouldn’t count out in women’s team, they narrowly lost to China in the group stage at Busan 2024 (also a deciding 5th game), although they aren’t very consistent so they might not even make it to a potential encounter against China. 

Are you kidding Summer Mcintosh in 400m freestyle? Ariarne Titmus just broke World record last year, Summer finished 4th and you calling her a lock. 4x100m freestyle women's relay for Australians is a lock. 

23 minutes ago, Josh said:

I’m convinced that half of you don’t understand what a “lock” is 

 

A lot of athletes/teams mentioned are favourites, but hardly locks. 

Gives us an example of what you consider as a lock? 

55 minutes ago, nenad said:

USA went to world cup with basically it's 3rd team. You really can't compare Olympics and World Cup from American point of view. 

 

2004 is hardly a good comparison. Best American team arrives in Paris. Much better comparison would be 2008 and there's really nobody as strong as Spain's team from that year. If something like a lock exists, both US teams in basketball are locks. 

Legitimate argument that USA won't have best 3 players in the tournament Jokic, SGA and Luka probably better then anyone USA will field. USA are favourites however they won't have best player ok the court ok big matches. 

Don't know much about volleyball, water polo , handball and hockey who is favourites in those team sports?

5 hours ago, Josh said:

Sorry I disagree with both, I wouldn’t consider Swiatek to be a “lock”

 

And while he is the favourite, it wouldn’t be a big upset if Lyles doesn’t win gold unlike the 200m. 

Swaitek is world number 1 and has won 3 from last 4 French Opens and last 2. 

Unless Adam Peaty is back to his best Qin Hayaing is 90% chance winning men's 100m breaststroke. 

Iga Swaitek is almost impossible to beat on clay should win gold. 

Noah Lyle's not a lock to win 100m but be a big upset if he doesn't. 

15 minutes ago, nenad said:

Not really. First of all, we don't know if Jokić will bother himself to play and even if he plays, USA's talent is over the top for any one country in the world. 

USA had most talent in last year World Cup and did not win chemistry is important 

1 hour ago, nenad said:

Well, I can guarantee you USA will win men's basketball gold. Because this is not an individual sport for something to happen to a favorite like a fall, or illness or something stupid. 

If Embiid doesn't play which is likely considered his injury history USA will find it hard to stop  Serbia who came 2nd in last year World Cup and have bonus of adding the best player in the world. 

It will take Sydney Mclaughlin huge drop on form to loose her run in 2023 Wc was breathtaking 

1 minute ago, dullard said:

They've misfired too many times to call them a lock.

They did break their own WR by over 1.5 seconds and beat 2nd place USA by over 4 seconds. Have current world record holder in 200m freestyle in Mollie O 'Callaghan and 3rd fastest swimmer ever in Ariarne Titmus (also owns fastest relay split ever) 

1 hour ago, phelps said:

just to name a few...

 

 Leon Marchand (swimming, men's 200m and 400 IM at least)

Track Cycling,  men's Team Sprint and Harrie Lavreysen (Individual Sprint)

 Karlos May Nasar (weightlifting, men's -89kg)

 all the table tennis, weightlifting and diving competitions in which they compete

I read somewhere a chinsese swimmer posted a time very close to Marchand in 200IM

4 hours ago, Dkats said:

I would say US Men’s basketball team assuming that they actually bring a full strength team 

Even at full strength USA not the juggernaut they once were 

With the next edition of the Summer Olympics less then 6 months and yes nothing is 100% assured but as this current moment who seems to be winning gold guaranteed in Paris. 

Swimming 

Australia Woman 4x100m 

They smashed the world record at world championships last year in Japan. To put in perspective the fastest split form the USA team which came second was only 0.01 faster then the slowest split Australia had. An Australia B team probably wins gold. 

Womans 1500m Katie Ledecky 

No on is within 15 seconds of her enough said. 

Mondo Duplanits 

Sydney Mclaughlin 

China Team Table Tennis 

Extremely likely 

USA womans basketball 

Australia 4x200m Woman Relay