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Rafa Maciel

Totallympics Medallist
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  1. Thanks
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from rybak in Track Cycling Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024   
    Can't see scenario where you get a second quota. Poland improved their ranking in Keirin after Milton but it wasn't enough to get into a quota spot and I think because they already have a quota in the event, they would not be eligible for any reallocation. 
  2. Like
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Adriano in Track Cycling Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024   
    Yes they do and I expect them to take Kwesi Browne as their second rider. 
     
     
    In order to be eligible for selection the rider has to have gained at least 10 UCI points in a qualifying event - '23 & '24 Nations Cup events, '23 World Champs and '23 and '24 Continental Champs
  3. Like
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Jan Linha in Track Cycling Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024   
    Yes they do and I expect them to take Kwesi Browne as their second rider. 
     
     
    In order to be eligible for selection the rider has to have gained at least 10 UCI points in a qualifying event - '23 & '24 Nations Cup events, '23 World Champs and '23 and '24 Continental Champs
  4. Like
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Adriano in Track Cycling UCI Nations Cup 2024   
    By my calculation, I think it will go to Egypt - Algeria needed to finish 21st in order to gain enough points to overtake Egypt and they came up just short in 22nd.  
  5. Thanks
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Josh in BMX Cycling 2024 Discussion Thread   
    American Continental Championship - Bogota  
     
     
     
    Men's Elite:
    1.)  Diego Arboleda Ospina
    2.)  Federico Villegas
    3.)  Santiago Suarez
     
     
    Women's Elite:
    1.)  Mariana Pajon
    2.)  Lexus Colby 
    3.)  Daleny Vaughn
  6. Like
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from mpjmcevoy in GB Cycling 2024   
    I know I am in the minority here, but I'm still not buying into Backstedt making the squad.
     
    With Georgi and Henderson locked in for selection (barring injury), Anna Shackley is probably third rider so that only leaves 1 more space and I'm not convinced it will be Backstedt who fills that last place. 
  7. Thanks
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Olympicsnell in GB Cycling 2024   
    They should be safe for 2 quotas on both the men's and women's side - but it will be tight. 
     
    For the men, GB are currently in 7th place but will drop below USA when the points from Mairipora are added in. GB have about 350 point cushion over 9th placed Denmark and 10th placed Brazil so if Aldridge and Orr can have steady results in the next couple of races, then they should be able to do enough to stay ahead of both countries. 
     
    Not sure what Pidcock's schedule is for this season, but he has traditionally competed in Nove Mesto towards the end of May - if he does that again this year, then it would definitely make it easier to keep those 2 individual quotas.
     
    For the women, it basically comes down to Evie Richards vs Anna Henderson of Australia and at the moment in the head-to-head, Richards comes out on top. GB currently have 500 point cushion and that will increase slightly after this weekend's action is taken into account. 
  8. Thanks
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Josh in Sport Climbing IFSC World Cup 2024   
    IFSC World Cup: Lead - Wujiang 
     
     
     
    Men's Final:
    1.)  Toby Roberts - 36+
    2.)  Taisei Homma - 36+
    3.)  Sorato Anraku - 32+
    4.)  Zento Murashita - 24+
    5.)  Sascha Lehmann - 24
    6.)  Hannes Van Duysen - 24
    7.)  Shuta Tanaka - 23+
    8.)  Max Milne - 23+
    9.)  Shion Omata - 21
     
     
  9. Thanks
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Josh in Sport Climbing IFSC World Cup 2024   
    IFSC World Cup: Speed - Wujiang 
     
     
    Men's Speed Final:
     Peng Wu (4.91) def.  Samuel Watson (5.11) 
     
    Men's Speed Small Final:
     Kiromal Katibin (5.07) def.  Ludovico Fossali (5.16)
     
     
    Women's Speed Final:
     Aleksandra Miroslaw (6.24) def.  Natalia Kalucka (6.75)
     
    Women's Speed Small Final:
     Jeong Jimin (6.62) def.  Aleksandra Kalucka (8.93)
  10. Thanks
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Josh in Sport Climbing IFSC World Cup 2024   
    IFSC World Cup: Lead - Wujiang 
     
     
     
    Women's Final:
    1.)  Janja Garnbret - TOP
    2.)  Luo Zhilu - 44+
    3.)  Seo Chaehyun - 43+
    4.)  Natsuki Tanii - 40
    5.)  Erin McNeice - 39
    6.)  Laura Rogora - 34+
    7.)  Natsumi Oda - 34+
    8.)  Mia Krampl - 34+
     
    Garnbret showing she will take some beating in Paris after dominating the boulder competition last week, she topped every route this weekend. 
     
  11. Like
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Josh in Track Cycling Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024   
    Last thoughts - on women's sprint events:
     
    Women's Team Sprint:
     
    Confirmed Quotas:       
    Contested Quotas:
     - 5403.75
    -----------------
     - 4852.50
     
    As with the men's evet, this will be close and will likely come down to whoever is able to finish highest in Milton this weekend. Beyond being hometown favourites, Canada have the added advantage of only counting 1 2024 NC event whereas France have 2. This means that France need to finish higher than 7th in order to improve their ranking points total. On an adjusted basis, Canada have a lead of around 170 points so France would need to finish at least 3 places higher than Canada to secure the quota. With a reduced field in Milton, Canada should be able to do enough to take the quota.
     
    Individual Sprint/Keirin
    2 Individual Quotas Through Team Sprint:         (16)
    Individual Quotas - Sprint:       (6)
    Continental Quota:  (1)
    Belgium have a 500 point lead over  for the last quota spot - probably too much to be made up in Milton.
     
     
    Individual Quotas - Keirin:       (6)
    Contested Quota:
     - 2254.50
    ---------------
     - 2185
     - 2176
     
    Malaysia should be safe in the last quota - the three nations are all pretty equally matched in terms of their results to date and realistically Spain or Hong Kong would likely need a top-10 finish to really stand chance of moving up the ranking. 
  12. Like
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Josh in Track Cycling Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024   
    CORRECTION: After a great spot from @Adriano, need to make a couple of changes 
     
    Women's Endurance events
     
    Women's Team Pursuit:
    Confirmed Quotas:          
     
     
    Women's Madison:
    Confirmed Quotas from Team Pursuit:          
     
    Safe Individual Quotas:    
     
    Missed out Denmark from initial post who are actually the safes of all the individual quotas! Anyhow, net effect is that there should be no contested quotas in the event.
     
     
    Women's Omnium:
    Confirmed Quotas from Team Pursuit:          
    Expected Quotas from Madison:      
    Safe Individual Quotas:     
    Continental Quota: 
     
    Contested Quotas:
     - 2015.50
    -----------------
     - 1854.50
     
    Czechia have quite a high bar in order for them to be able to increase their points total as they would need to finish 9th or better but it's not any easier for Spain because although they have a lower discard score, in order to be able to overtake Czechia they would need to finish at least 10th.  Czechia should therefore be safe for the final quota.
  13. Like
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Benolympique in Track Cycling UCI Nations Cup 2024   
    2024 Tissot UCI Track nations Cup - Milton | Schedule | Tissot Timing
  14. Love
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Adriano in Track Cycling UCI Nations Cup 2024   
  15. Like
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Josh in Track Cycling UCI Nations Cup 2024   
    Round 1 match ups:
     
     v 
     v 
     v 
     v 
  16. Like
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Josh in Track Cycling UCI Nations Cup 2024   
    Women's Team Sprint round 1 match-ups:
     
     v 
     v 
     v 
     v 
  17. Like
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Josh in Track Cycling UCI Nations Cup 2024   
    4 seconds faster than the rest of the field. They'll race against  in round 1.  were second and will ride against 
     
    the other first round match-ups are  v  and  v 
  18. Love
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Adriano in Track Cycling Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024   
    CORRECTION: After a great spot from @Adriano, need to make a couple of changes 
     
    Women's Endurance events
     
    Women's Team Pursuit:
    Confirmed Quotas:          
     
     
    Women's Madison:
    Confirmed Quotas from Team Pursuit:          
     
    Safe Individual Quotas:    
     
    Missed out Denmark from initial post who are actually the safes of all the individual quotas! Anyhow, net effect is that there should be no contested quotas in the event.
     
     
    Women's Omnium:
    Confirmed Quotas from Team Pursuit:          
    Expected Quotas from Madison:      
    Safe Individual Quotas:     
    Continental Quota: 
     
    Contested Quotas:
     - 2015.50
    -----------------
     - 1854.50
     
    Czechia have quite a high bar in order for them to be able to increase their points total as they would need to finish 9th or better but it's not any easier for Spain because although they have a lower discard score, in order to be able to overtake Czechia they would need to finish at least 10th.  Czechia should therefore be safe for the final quota.
  19. Thanks
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Josh in Rowing WR World Cup 2024   
    World Rowing World Cup I - Varese 
     
    Men's Sweep Results from Day 1:
     
    Men's Eight:
     - 05:31.77 - FA
    (1) - 05:37.53
     - 05:47.42
    (2) - 05:51.21
     
     - 05:32.48 - FA
     - 05:36.91
     - 05:41.96
     
     
    Men's Four:
     - 05:57.91 - FA
     - 05:58.01 - FA
     - 06:00.71
     - 06:01.01
     - 06:05.61
     
    (1) - 05:57.32 - FA
     - 05:58.40 - FA
     - 06:03.27
     - 06:08.93
    (2) - 06:13.55
     
     
    Men's Pair
    (1) - 06:29.56 - FA
     - 06:31.92
    (2) - 06:34.78
     - 06:36.91
    (2) - 06:44.28
    (2) - 06:48.92
     
     
     - 06:33.32 - FA
     - 06:37.05
    (1) - 06:38.83
    (1) - 06:43.48
     - 07:06.92
     
  20. Like
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Josh in Track Cycling UCI Nations Cup 2024   
    2024 Tissot UCI Track nations Cup - Milton | Schedule | Tissot Timing
  21. Like
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Josh in Track Cycling UCI Nations Cup 2024   
    top qualifying for women's team pursuit with 04:10.815 ahead of  on 04:11.417. GB will face  in round 1 whilst Italy face .
     
    Other 1st round matches should be  v  and  v 
  22. Like
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from mpjmcevoy in Team GB at the World Athletics Relays   
    Think we've got pretty much the top options there for the 4x400s with the exception on Anning who probably wouldn't be available due to college commitments. 
     
    The women's 4x100 is pretty solid - can easily see 4 of them being on the start list of the heats when it comes to Paris but the men's selections are........interesting  
     
    Have to say I wasn't expecting to see Kilty in the squad and figured that the squad had moved on from his era. His selection is even more surprising given the inclusion of Ujah in the squad as Kilty blames Ujah for losing his Olympic medal and was on record saying he would never forgive Ujah for his reckless and sloppy behaviour. Add in Prescod who accused UKA of emotional blackmail in the run up to Budapest last year and the squad becomes a tinderbox just waiting for a spark to cause an explosion. 
  23. Like
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from orangeman in Track Cycling Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024   
    Women's Endurance events
     
    Women's Team Pursuit:
    Confirmed Quotas:          
     
     
    Women's Madison:
    Confirmed Quotas from Team Pursuit:          
     
    Safe Individual Quotas:    
     
    Contested Quotas:
     - 4585
    --------------
     - 4482
     - 4262
     
    The last quota place should come down to a straightforward fight between Uzbekistan and Hong Kong. Mexico could be in the mix, but they probably have too much to do to be able to close the gap. Uzbekistan are not competing in Milton so it will all come down to what Hong Kong can achieve. Hong Kong will need to finish at least 10th to be able to overtake Uzbekistan. Generally, they have been finishing in the range of 10th-12th so whilst it will be difficult, it's not impossible. 
     
    Given I used to live in Hong Kong, I've got my fingers crossed that they are able to do enough to get the final quota.
     
     
    Women's Omnium:
    Confirmed Quotas from Team Pursuit:          
    Expected Quotas from Madison:     
    Safe Individual Quotas:     
    Continental Quota: 
     
    Contested Quotas:
     - 2015.50
    -----------------
     - 1854.50
     
    If Uzbekistan hold on and take the final Madison quota, then there are unlikely to be any contested quotas in the Omnium. Hong Kong would take the final individual quota. 
     
    If there is a contested quota, Czechia have quite a high bar in order for them to be able to increase their points total as they would need to finish 9th or better but it's not any easier for Spain because although they have a lower discard score, in order to be able to overtake Czechia they would need to finish at least 10th.  
     
    Czechia should therefore be safe for the final quota - but they need Hong Kong to help them out by taking the quota in the Madison. 
  24. Like
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from orangeman in Track Cycling Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024   
    Before the action kicks off tomorrow, I thought I'd take a look at the individual track events to see if we are likely to see and changes as a result of Milton.
     
    Men's Team Pursuit:
    Confirmed Quotas:          
     
    In my opinion, the Olympic field is set - China could spring a surprise and overtake Belgium, but the two teams have been equally matched across the season so it would seem to be unlikely. At a minimum, China need to finish at least 7th and hope that Belgium have an absolute nightmare in order for them to be in with any real chance. 
     
     
    Men's Madison:
    Confirmed Quotas from Team Pursuit:          
     
    Safe Individual Quotas:    
     
    Contested Quotas:
     - 4750
     - 4621
    ---------------
     - 4398
     
    All three are counting 2 NC events from 2024 and all have similar discard scores of 10th or 11th. It will be difficult for Switzerland to be able to do enough to overtake Czechia to get into the last quota spot - they'd need to finish at least 8th and keep 3 places between themselves and Czechia. That is something that they have not been able to do so far in the qualification window so it looks like both Austria and Czechia should qualify for Paris. 
     
     
    Men's Omnium:
    Confirmed Quotas from Team Pursuit:          
    Expected Quotas from Madison:     
    Safe Individual Quotas:    
    Continental Quota:  
    Contested Quotas:
     - 1432
     - 1394
    ---------------
     - 1231
     - 1189
     
    There is potential for change in the final quotas in this event. Colombia should be safe as they have only competed in 2 NC events across the last 2 years whereas Indonesia is already counting their two 2024 NC events. Kazakhstan will need to finish higher than 16th to be able to overtake Indonesia. Hong Kong may have left themselves with too much to do after their poor result in the 2nd leg of last year's NC. 
     
    For the continental quota, Egypt will be safe by virtue of the fact that South Africa are not competing in Milton despite being just 40 points off the quota. 
     
    If I was a betting man, I'd say that Colombia and Kazakhstan will likely take the last 2 quotas for the men's endurance events.
  25. Like
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Josh in Track Cycling Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024   
    Previewing the sprint events is going to be more complicated than the endurance side of things but here's my thoughts for what they are worth.
     
    Men's Team Sprint:
    Confirmed Quotas:       
     
    Contested Quotas:
     - 4552.50
    ---------------------
     - 4530
     - 4507.50
     
    Both Poland and Canada should overtake Czechia in Milton as they are both only counting 1 2024 NC event whereas Czechia has 2 and would need to finish higher than 7th in order to increase their score. 
     
    The final quota should therefore come down to a straight shoot-out between Poland and Canada. Whoever finishes higher in the event in Milton will take the quota. 
     
    In the head-to-heads during the qualifying window, Poland have outperformed Canada in 3 out of the 4 times they have both competed, but the teams are generally well matched. At last year's Milton Nations Cup event, Canada got their best result when finishing 4th. Given the strength of the line-ups we have in Milton this year, it is unlikely they will replicate that, but it is still possible that the home crowd advantage could propel them to a strong finish. 
     
    Personally, I am not sure how this one is going to play out but if I have to pick a side, I'd say that Poland likely has the edge. 
     
     
    Individual Sprint / Keirin:
    2 Individual Quotas Confirmed Through Team Sprint:         (16)
    Individual Quotas - Sprint:      (5)
    Continental Quota:  (1)
     
    Contested Quotas - Sprint:
     - 2697
    ------------------
     - 2438.50
     
    I've been asked previously whether I think there is a chance for  to get an individual quota if they miss out on the team sprint and I have said no, but having done a deeper dive on the numbers, I may have changed my mind, and I can see a (narrow) path for them to get the last quota in the individual sprint. Canada are currently about 250 points behind Colombia - but they have a NC event in hand. If they can finish at least 13th in Milton, they would be able to overtake Colombia and move into the final quota spot assuming that Colombia don't add to their points total. If Colombia finish higher than 13th, then Canada will need to ensure that they finish above them in order to be able to secure the quota. Given the field, it will be tough and a lot will depend on where everyone finishes in the qualifying run. 
     
     
    Individual Quotas - Keirin:        (7)
     
    The Keirin field looks pretty set - Thailand has gap of about 330 points over  and I don't see that closing in Milton. 
     
    In addition to this, we may also see some quota reallocations in the sprint events as I don't think Israel and Suriname will be able to field 2 riders. I'm not sure how the logistics of that will play out. We could see  and  in the mix to receive reallocated quotas.
     
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