Winter Olympic Games 2018 Early Qualification Predictions

[DaniSRB 899]

1 minute ago, hckosice said:

 

well he was on podium in both yesterdays FIS races 1st and 2nd and it´s not that it was just a random race, there were plenty of interesting names competing. very promising guy.

that's nice to hear

[Dragon 1,844]

Team Size prediction for Winter Olympic Games 2018 PyeongChang

 

Ski Sports

 

Alpine Skiing  (3-4) Ryding and Tilley are WC points scorers, Guest is inside top 75 in world. Jack Gower improving as a downhiller but maybe not good enough yet.

 

Cross Country Skiing  (2-3) – Best GB team ever assembled. Andrew Young is outside medal chance, Musgrave is improving. Question is whether a woman will qualify

Ski Jumping  (0) – Teenagers compete at FIS Cup leval. Maybe 2026?

Nordic Combined  (0) - No athletes.

Freestyle Skiing  (3-8) – Very strong in the new big air event, good at slopestyle, others on edge of qualification

 

Snowboarding  (5-8) – Same as freestyle

Biathlon  (1-2) – Probably qualifying 1 of each sex.

 

 

Skating Sports

 

Speed Skating  (0-2) – Which would surprise people!. A British-Canadian just qualified for the world cup and a British-Dutchman is improving. May just come too early for them this time

Short Track Speed Skating  (4-10) – I expect 2 of each sex to qualify then it becomes a question of relay teams

Figure Skating  (2-5) – Ice dancers will be there.  Rest will be close but probably not qualify

 

 

Sleigh Sports

 

Luge  (0-2) – Might qualify in doubles Unlikely to take up place

Skeleton  (3-6) -. 2 women, 1 man will qualify easily. 5 places likely, 6unlikely

Bobsleigh  (8-15) – One men’s four and women’s sled easily. Perhaps two of each. (I’m counting reserves) 

 

 

Team Sports

 

Curling  (14) – Would be shocked if any fail to qualify

Ice Hockey  (0) - No. 

 

 

Total Optimistic Prediction  -  (79)

Total Pessimistic Prediction  - (47)

 

Total Realistic Prediction  -  (56)

Edited November 30, 2016 by Dragon

[Agger 1,662]

Denmark

Team Size prediction for Winter Olympic Games 2018 PyeongChang

 

Ski Sports

 

Alpine Skiing  (1-4) - If Chrisoffer Faarup keeps out of serious injuries, he should be a safe bet for downhill, Super-G and combined. Our super talent, Marcus Vorre and Casper Dyrbye Næsted may also have a decent shot. A small chance for a female skier as well, which would most likely be Charlotte Lemgart or Yina Moe-Lange

Cross Country Skiing  (0-2) - On the paper Martin Møller is our strongest bid, but he is getting old. Therefore I guess it will mainly be Lasse Hulgaard going for it. He's showing decent speed, but I'm not feeling too confident

Ski Jumping  (0) - Surprise, surprise. We have no jumpers!

Nordic Combined  (0) - Not better at all! 

Freestyle Skiing  (0-4) - I'm not sure at all about this prediction. Laila Friis-Salling has done very well on the half pipe and young Nicoline Nielsen could step up in the ski cross. I don't know about Rasmus Dalberg Jørgensen, Thomas Trads (both slopestyle)  Jannick Fjeldsø (moguls)

Snowboarding  (0) - It seems like we have one snowboarder, Lasse Lehwald, but he's not competing at a high enough level. Though he's young, I don't see a reason believing in him.

Biathlon  (0-1) - We have a very interesting talent in Anders Emil Schiellerup, but I don't really know if he has a shot. He's aiming for the Olympics, but it's hard for me to predict.

 

 

Skating Sports

 

Speed Skating  (0-3) - Viktor-Hald Thorup, Stefan Due Schmidt and Elena Møller-Riegas should all have decent chances for the Olympics. All 3 are good mass starters, while especially Thorup may be able to qualify in the 5000m. 

Short Track Speed Skating  (0) - I'm not completely sure, but I don't think we have any active short track speed skaters.

Figure Skating  (0) - We have a high class ice dancing pair representing us, but sadly Laurence Fournier isn't a danish citizen. Therefore the pair in ineligible. Our best solo skaters retired during the last 1½ year, making a danish participation highly unlikely.

 

 

Sleigh Sports

 

Luge  (0) - Haha

Skeleton  (0) - Not really

Bobsleigh  (0) - We tried in the begining of the century, but right now we have nothing

 

 

Team Sports

 

Curling  (0-10) - It's really hard to understand our men's team. At the worlds in 2016, they won the silver medal. Now they're relegated from the European Championships. Fingers are crossed for the 12 points from the silver being enough (it was in 2014). The women have 5 points and are qualified for the Worlds next year. The Olympics are within reach for them, but a bit better than the 8th place from the Worlds would be great. Of course both will get the chance in the OQT if they don't qualify through the rankings. A mixed team seems unlikely.

Ice Hockey  (0) - It was another disaster in the men's OQT. The women are up against Switzerland, meaning that we more or less need a miracle to qualify.

 

 

 

Total Optimistic Prediction  -  (24)

Total Pessimistic Prediction  - (1)

 

Total Realistic Prediction  -  (17)

[heywoodu 15,135]

30 minutes ago, Pavlo said:

 

Biathlon  (7-8) - full woman`s team +2-3 guys?

 

 

I would say either 2 or 5 guys, not 3  

 

6-20 in the Nations Cup get 5 quota (maybe 10-20, not sure, I know the 20th place is the last one to get 5 quota), whereas 21st and 22nd get 2 quota. 

[hckošice 14,822]

11 minutes ago, Agger said:

Total Pessimistic Prediction  - (1)

 

 

 thats definitely what I call a pessimistic prediction no way ! I´m sure you´ll send more than 10

 

still so sorry for your hockey team..it´s a shame that such great players will miss the olympics again

[Agger 1,662]

55 minutes ago, hckosice said:

 

 thats definitely what I call a pessimistic prediction no way ! I´m sure you´ll send more than 10

 

still so sorry for your hockey team..it´s a shame that such great players will miss the olympics again

 

I'm expecting at least 8, but sadly I don't feel completely sure about anyone but Faarup.

[LDOG 2,418]

No idea, hopefully 0 and we save money.

[justony 454]

 Slovenia

Team Size prediction for Winter Olympic Games 2018 PyeongChang

 

Ski Sports

 

Alpine Skiing  (10-12) - There were eight skiers in Sochi, but prospects are quite good. Among men there are Kranjec, Kosi, Kline most likely to compete in Korea. Women have even more chances with Drev, Bucik, Ferk, Lavtar, Štuhec,... So, if standards are not set too high, we could see at least 10 skiers.

Cross Country Skiing  (6) - All hopes are on ladies, especially in sprint. (Višnar, Fabjan, Čebašek, Einfalt, Razinger, Lampič) Men compete very rarely in World Cup.

Ski Jumping  (9) - No doubt about sending full quota in sport, where we are top 3 nation in the world.

Nordic Combined  (1) - Gašper Berlot ended his career, so now it all depends on Marjan Jelenko. Young guns are still well behind, especially in XCO part. Too bad, it was very close having full team in Sochi.

Freestyle Skiing  (2) - Filip Flisar and Blaž Ogorelc should qualify in ski cross, I am not sure what is happening in other disciplines, where mostly our skiers in different series, not in World cup.

Snowboarding  (8) - I expect full alpine men's team and Gloria Kotnik among ladies. Tim Kevin Ravnjak and Cilka Sadar should most likely compete in freestyle section, there are still some youngsters very talented (Kralj, Štante, Pribošič,...)

Biathlon  (6-7) - Men should qualify with complete team. As for women, Andreja Mali is not competing anymore, Teja Gregorin is quite old, but still in the mix, Anja Eržen should try to fill our mixed relay team. Chances for having women relay are really small, because we don't even have enough girls with permission to compete in World cup.  

 

 

Skating Sports

 

Speed Skating  (0) - Not gonna happen for many years. We don't even have any indoor rink for speed skating.

Short Track Speed Skating  (0) - We had a guy competing in ECH, but he was quite behind. It is most likely to try get a quota maybe in 2022 or more 2026.

Figure Skating  (1) - Daša Grm has most chances to qualify. I am not sure, what is current position in men's category.

 

 

Sleigh Sports

 

Luge  (1) - There is so little money in this sport. Our national championships take place in Innsbruck, cause we do not have any artificial track closer. I still believe we will achieve international standard at least with Danej Navrboc or Žiga Biruš. But you have to know something, Slovenia had two international quota for Sochi (Navrboc, Sirše), which dissapeared because of our hockey team. (not our players, but because of federation members).

Skeleton  (1) - As far as I know, Anže Šetina is not competing anymore, but we have Sara Lavrenčič, who occasionally show up on ladies tour.

Bobsleigh  (0) - There were some fund raises 10 years ago, but now having a bobsleigh team would be completely insane.

 

 

Team Sports

 

Curling  (0) - Pyongchang is too close for our federation, existing only few years. Our men competed second year in a row at ECH in B group, so they could maybe with good development be Olympics contenders for 2026, if not sooner.

Ice Hockey  (25) - No doubt here, Slovenia will have men team at the Olympics for second time in succession. Women, however, already failed to qualify.

 

 

 

Total Optimistic Prediction  -  (80) If there were a lot of alpine skiers (close to 15), full biathlon team and also a team in nordic combined.

Total Pessimistic Prediction  - (50) With our hockey team already in, highly unlikely. But supposing to cross out all sleigh and skating sports and to compete in our basic sports (Alpine sking, CC Skiing, Biathlon) only with individuals.

 

Total Realistic Prediction  -  (65) That would mean one athlete less than in Sochi, where this team was most numerous.

[hckošice 14,822]

16 minutes ago, LDOG said:

No idea, hopefully 0 and we save money.

 

I´m pretty sure you´ll send a couple of athletes in alpine skiing

[Bearas 521]

 Lithuania

Team Size prediction for Winter Olympic Games 2018 PyeongChang

 

Ski Sports

 

Alpine Skiing  (2) - Probably just a basic quota of 1 men and 1 women.

Cross Country Skiing  (2-3) - Women's - basic quota, Men's - Basic quota +maybe additional one.

Ski Jumping  (0) -  Unfortunately this sport is no longer practised in Lithuania

Nordic Combined  (0) -  Unfortunately this sport is no longer practised in Lithuania

Freestyle Skiing  (0) - Popular among amateurs, but no one is good enough.

Snowboarding  (0-1) - Might be one quota for women's slopestyle.

Biathlon  (2-6) - at least one men and one woman, but with a little bit of luck at least one team quota is possible,

 

 

Skating Sports

 

Speed Skating  (0) - Unfortunately this sport is no longer practised in Lithuania

Short Track Speed Skating  (1-2) - At least one girl, but some promising boys might get in to shape before 2018.

Figure Skating  (1-5) - 1 in ladies, 1 in ice dance (might be problems with nationality), 1 in pairs (might be problems with nationality),

 

 

Sleigh Sports

 

Luge  (0) - Had a contest to create a national team, but no good efforts yet.

Skeleton  (0) - Had a contest to create a national team, but no good efforts yet.

Bobsleigh (0) - Had a contest to create a national team, but no good efforts yet.

 

 

Team Sports

 

Curling  (0) - Maybe in 2026...

Ice Hockey  (0) - Too much competition, not enough good players.

 

 

 

Total Optimistic Prediction  -  (19)

Total Pessimistic Prediction  - (5)

 

Total Realistic Prediction  -  (8)