Summer Olympic Games Los Angeles 2028 Early Qualification Predictions for your Nation Road to LA 2028

[rafalgorka 1,808]

14 minutes ago, Federer91 said:

I'm sure many will see record numbers with the ever expanding schedule.

The ever expanding schedule means larger team sizes for the "already-big" nations.

 

But less quotas for many sports/events mean smaller teams for "medium-sized" NOCs, I'm afraid.

Edited August 31 by rafalgorka

[hckošice 15,502]

Aquatics

Swimming - Beloved Universality Quotas 1 per gender  - 2

Open water swimming -  No chance - 0

Diving - There was a naturalized girl from Seattle diving here and there some years back, but did not hear about her a while - 0

Water Polo - Level not sufficient for qualifying men or women - 0

Artistic swimming - Not enough money to buy quotas, so - 0

 

Archery - Maybe 1, Maybe none, If M Compound indidual would be there we would have 1 for sure, since there mixed event we will have 0 for sure.

In Recurve Baránková is the only chance but since we are in europe, qualifying is super hard, but hey let be positive and write her here - 1

 

Athletics - Something between 5 and 10 It may be any number in this frame, so let go with the middle - 8

 

Badminton - We will certainly try and we will certainly fail - 0

 

Basketball 3x3 - - 0

Basketball - Men are finally starting to beat nations like Albania or Luxembourg so give us time... Women are decent but definitely faaaar to be enough for the Olympics, first let start qualify regularly again for the ECh - 0

 

Boxing - We had 1 boxer at last 2 Games, would be nice to repeat it, but let be honest, not gonna happen - 0

 

Canoe Sprint - After the fiasco with 0 athletes in Paris, I sicerely do hope something will change within the federation and at least 5 will qualify (Womens K4 may be surprisingly the biggest chance for particiaption, who would have thought that ?) - 5

Canoe Slalom - This one is clear as usual - Full team or riots ! - 4

 

Cycling

BMX Freestyle - too few quotas eligible for our girls to dream - 0

BMX Racing - one girl is trying I think, but qualifying is out of reach I fear - 0

Mountain Bike - Same as above - 0

Road - 1 M and 1 W are basic minimum, In Viki Chladoňová we trust ! Go chick show them all and bring that medal home - 2

Track - Last 3 games I was hoping for Pavlendová to qualify, never happened, not going to fall in this trap once again - 0

 

Equestrian - Without any frikin chance - 0

 

Fencing - I always forgot this is also at the Olympics lol - Not our sport - 0

 

Football - Still unbelievable we already played at the Olympics in 2000, imagine that among 4 european team, quite insane, isn´t it ? - 0

 

Golf - Never heard about Sabattini since his silver from Tokyo again, Time to find another guy from Bratislava again, I guess   - 0

 

Gymnastics 

Artistic - After Mokošová will retire, we will need time to start fighting for quotas again - 0

Rhythmic - Not enough level to aspire - 0

Trampoline - No active athlete - 0

 

Handball - Our girls are U17 european champions, yes, I am not kidding you. We really are !

So, That was just to write something here. LA28 obviously zero - 0

 

Hockey - No ice, no fun - 0

 

Judo - Hopefully the young Patrícia Tománková will start her glorious career in LA !  One man to accompny her would be nice too, but I do not think he will, frankly - 1

 

Modern Pentathlon - Just like me and Mila Kunis, I really want, but will never happen - 0

 

Rowing - We have a young guy in singles who may qualify I hope, would be awesome - 0

Rowing Coastal Beach Sprints - No idea what are you talking about, but already with words Coastal beach we are disqualified by default - 0

 

Rugby Sevens - We are somewhere in Division C or something just in europe, so - 0

 

Sailing - If planet allign we can hope for a miracle like a participant in Paris Marseille, but let be real, such mircales happens maybe twice in a lifetime - 0

 

Shooting - 6 or 7 should definitely qualify, Pretty confident in that and for god sake let finally win this medal in Mixed Trap holy shit !!! - 7

 

Skateboarding - My city buddy Grandpa Richard Tury already declared his ambition to end his career in the mecca of sk8, If he say so I believe him - 1

 

Sport Climbing - Martina Buršíková our only hope to qualify, not sure if she has enough level to make it though, It would be great - 0

 

Surfing - This one always kills me, like this is at the Olympics  Bach man, you are really a jerk - 0

 

Table Tennis - Hope at least 1 M and 1 W, maybe a few more - 2

 

Taekwondo - Not in this life - 0

 

Tennis - I fear Rebecca Šramková will be the lone participant, let see the level of Schmiedlová after her return from pregnancy will be, but for now definitely only Šramková - 1

 

Triathlon - I hope this time the luck will be also on our side and at least 1 girl will qualify, there are 4 who can fight for tat one ticket, I hope it will not end like for Paris - 1

 

Beach Volleyball - Less than zero chance - 0

Volleyball - We improve, we improve slowly, mainly the girls, but not yet, not yet - 0

 

Weightlifting - Nope - 0

 

Wrestling

Greco-Roman - Must do some shopping around Makhachkala - 0

Freestyle - Tajmuraz Gold this time bro ! - 2 or 3

 

Cricket - Full teams obviously ! haha  - 0

 

Flag Football - Not sure we have a federation for this -  0

 

Baseball - like bro, really ! this is back again ? - 0

Softball - This is really back again ? why ? - 0

 

Lacrosse - Even in surfing I guess we have bigger chance, I do not even know if we have a federation for this here - 0

 

Squash - No idea, have no clue about the sport, but I guess zero, have not heard of any decent player around - 0 

 

 

38 Athelets should be realistic, but again, in Paris we did not manage even 30, Hope Canoe Sprint will bring us back, because Paris was seriously one neverending catastrophe I try to forget every minute of my life

[rafalgorka 1,808]

Thank you all for your predictions!!! They are very interesting, thanks a lot!

 

I obviously know my yesterday's predictions for Poland are way too optimistic.

 

I think some less popular sports here may have problems with financing due to all the political turmoil we're gonna have here between now and LA 28 (and beyond). So it may cause some problems for the athletes and coaching stuff and in the end we get less quota than we could have.

 

So now maybe I'd say:

 

-2 Swimming

-1 Diving

-1 Archery

-2 Equestrian (1 team less, 1 ind more)

-1 Gymnastics Artistic

-1 Judo

-4 Rowing

-1 Taekwondo

-1 Triathlon (no man)

 

14 less athletes altogether, still optimistic 

 

That would be 268-14=256 - and if we count the reserve fencing athletes off - it's 253

 

Much more than 218 in Paris, but we had M and W volleyball teams there only and here i also predict 2 other team sports:

- W handball - we were 9th in 2024 European Champ so we are on the edge of qualifying

- M basketball - i know, i am biased here, but we just beat Slovenia with Doncic, you know...

 

If we scratch handball and basketball it's 253-26=227 - slightly more than Paris, very possible

 

The problem is that way too many of these quotas are from the bottom of the rankings, those people just made the cut and they are not medal contenders at all. We will be again one of those NOCs where the difference between athletes quota and total medals is HUGE sadly

 

Edited August 31 by rafalgorka

[hoversaBR 613]

I'll try for 

 

Aquatics 

 

Artistic Swimming: 0.

 

Diving: 1-2. I think I'm being too optimistic here.

 

Open Water: 2. 

 

Water Polo: 0-11. Without the USA, we have a chance of qualifying our men's team. The women's team is almost impossible.

 

Swimming: 14-20. I'm not so excited here, but we should still take a reasonable number of swimmers.

 

Archery: 2. 1 woman and 1 Man. 

 

Athletics: 35-45. 

 

Badminton: 1-2. 1 in the women's and hopefully one more in the men's.

 

Baseball/Softball: 0. Maybe in 20 years. Not now.

 

Basketball: 0-14. In 3x3 we are a disgrace. In 5x5 I hope we can qualify a team again.

 

Boxing: 6-7. It would be amazing if we could repeat Paris 2024, but I should be satisfied with 6.

 

Canoeing: 7. I think we should qualify 4 in the Sprint and 3 more in the Slalom.

 

Cricket: 0. I don't even know if there is a national team here.

 

Cycling: 5. 2 in mountain bike, 2 in BMX Racing, 1 in BMX Freestyle.

 

Equestrian: 7. Full squad in Eventing and Jumping plus 1 individual in Dressage. 

 

Fencing: 2-3. I think 2 is already great.

 

Flag Football: 0 

 

Football: 18-36. The women's team should be a sure thing even if we have to play a new qualifier. The men's team is always an unknown.

 

Golf: 0

 

Gymnastics: 

 

Artistics: 5-10. The women's team should qualify easily. I'm not confident about the men's team, but it's possible.

 

Rythmics: 6-7. The group, for sure. One more individual quota, and let's hope for another.

 

Trampoline: 2. 1 Man and 1 woman.

 

Handball: 28. Women's team 100% right. Men's team, I think we won't fail this time.

 

Hockey: 0. We're a little better at the American level on the men's side. But we'll never reach Olympic level.

 

Judo: 13-14. 13 is the safety margin, but I hope we can take all 14 athletes this time.

 

Lacrosse: 0. WTF is this sport? 

 

Modern Pentathlon: 0-1. 

I don't know, maybe someone will qualify. 

 

Rowing: 0-2. Maybe 0, maybe 2. Who knows?

 

Rugby: 12. Women's team.

 

Sailing: 8-10. 8-10. This sport is usually not that difficult to qualify for.

 

Shooting: 1-3. This is our average.

 

Skateboarding: 12. We should probably have a full team here again.

 

Sport Climbing: 0. Very low chances.

 

Squash: I don't know, I don't know this sport. Maybe there's someone who has a chance. 

 

Surfing: 4-6. We should easily qualify at least four athletes here, two per gender. If the extra quota exists, we might be able to send six again.

 

Table Tennis: 6. Is the maximum 4 or 6 here? I don't know, but we should qualify for all events.

 

Taekwondo: 2-4. Yeah, at least 2 I think is fine.

 

Tennis: 4-5. Same as always.

 

Triathlon: 4. 2 men and 2 women.

 

Volleyball: 24 Indoor + 8 Beach. Anything other than that would be a disaster.

 

Weightlifting: 1-2. Hopefully, we repeat Paris 2024. There is potential at least.

 

Wrestling: 1-2. 1 or 2 quotas in women's freestyle.

 

Total: 241-322  (If I counted correctly)

 

Edit: I had completely forgotten about boxing, one of our main sports. 

Edited August 31 by hoversaBR
I forgot about boxing

[Siddhartha Talukdar 242]

16 hours ago, nitinsanker said:

India will surely have its largest squad in LA and this is guaranteed ....

 

We had 117 in rio

We had 119 ( largest ever in tokyo ) 

We had 110 in paris 

 

( We are maximum numbers in our regular sports now and the fall in tokyo was only because womens hockey with 16 players failed to qualify ) 

 

So this time i feel we should hit 160-170..

 

This presumes 1 simple assumption we qualify in womens hockey ....we had a shock when they narrowly missed qualification in 2024 after finishing 4th in tokyo ....that should add 16 to our paris number bringing it to 126.....

 

We will do very well in the new sports 

 

We are almost sure of adding 32 in cricket both mens and womens team 

 

3-4 in squash 

 

2 in mixed compound 

 

Which brings us to 38 +126 which is 164

 

... So 160-170 with some plusses and minuses 

 

in paris we did well to  qualify mens and women teams in recurve and TT and 2 relay squads in 4*400 where we may not qualify all of them this time  so minus  4-5 .....

 

On the other hand we may add some numbers in mens wrestling and boxing ... 

 

So yeah i think 160-170 which may bring us to a position of 15th or so in squad size ....

 

@Roamingrover86@Dolby @Prashanth@Siddhartha Talukdar@Saatvik

 

Detailed breakup 

Archery - 8: Men's + Women's team in recurve and 2 in mixed team compound
Athletics - 25 ish: Average contingent size has been 25-30 in the past

Badminton - 8: One quota each in all the five events. Second quota in MS and WS depends on which of the current juniors step up

Boxing - 6: Average figure

Cricket - 30: Both men's and women's team should qualify

Equestrian - 1: Someone in dressage or eventing. Team also possible

Field Hockey - 30: Both men's and women's team should qualify

Golf - 4

Judo - 1

Rowing - 1

Sailing - 2

Shooting - 22: Very good depth in rifle and pistol. 2 quota in shotgun could happen too

Squash - 2: One male and one female

Swimming - 2

Table Tennis - 4: Not aware how many doubles can qualify from one NOC. Conservative figure of two singles players qualifying each per gender

Tennis - 2: Men's Doubles possible

Weightlifting - 1

Wrestling - 7: Even with federation issues we somehow qualify a decent number

 

Total: 156

 

Optimistic qualifiers

Fencing - 1: Bhavani Devi or Taniksha Khatri

Equestrian - 3: Team qualification realistic

Track Cycling - 1: Lets see how crop of Ronaldo and Beckham progress

 

 

Edited August 31 by Siddhartha Talukdar

[Olympicsnell 332]

Aquatics

Swimming - similar to Paris, 32

Open water swimming – 1 men 1 woman – 2

Diving – will go with 10

Water Polo – women’s side will push for a extended place, but will come up short 0

Artistic swimming - 2,

 Archery – 2 one of each

 Athletics – 55 sounds like a nice number

 Badminton – Based on world champs will be lucky to qualify anyone, but I will say men’s doubles – 2

 Basketball (in all it’s form’s 0, outside shot of men’s  3x3, but nah) 0

 Boxing – will have a better idea after the upcoming world champs but a minimum of – 6

 Canoe Sprint – none last time, none this time – 0

Canoe Slalom - 2 woman, 2 men, - 4

 Cycling

BMX Freestyle – one of each – 2

BMX Racing – one of each please – 2

Mountain Bike – 2 men 1 woman - 3

Road - 4 in males, 4 in females - 8

Track – 14 is a full team yes? - 14

 Equestrian – Full teams 12

 Fencing – 0

 Football - women I am hopeful for, men will be scuppered by everyone on the island arguing again -18

 Golf - 2 man, 2 women 4

 Gymnastics 2 Teams. Is that - 10

Rhythmic – I think we just absorbed someone from France who is better than what we have, 1

Trampoline - 1 male 1 female – 2

 Handball – nope

 Hockey - both teams could be there. - 32

 Judo – 2/3 would be optimistic based on paris, maybe like boxing we are restocking the shelves. – 4

 Modern Pentathlon – 2 female, 1 men based on the world’s yesterday - 3

 Rowing – will go with 38,

Rowing Coastal Beach Sprints – actually have no idea about this one, will over estimate that it rowing and we are good at it, 4.

 Rugby Sevens – Women should qualify, I will be hopefull with picking the men to get back in, ireland’s decline helps - 24

 Sailing – not sure how many a full squad is, but will go with 14

 Shooting – will go with similar to paris – 6

 Skateboarding- 2

 Sport Climbing – 0 in speed, 2 each in men and women bouldering, 1 each in lead - 6

 Surfing – Going to say 0

 Table Tennis – one…maybe? 1

 Taekwondo – 2 men 2 women we have been strong at this event for a while now – 4

 Tennis – looking at it now….1 male, 2 female, men’s doubles so am confident with 5, but will be optimistic – 6

 Triathlon - 2 man, 2 woman, the relay should qualify. - 4

 Beach Volleyball - 1 Men pair - 2

 Volleyball – Not in this lifetime – 0

 Weightlifting – 2…3 max. will go with -2

 Wrestling - 0

 Cricket – Anthing less than both teams is a national disgrace – 30

 Flag Football – Both teams could get there, but I don’t think they will. Again depends on how many continental sports there are, women are GB’s best bet but Austria will mop that quota up

 Baseball /Softball – Could be in contention but for one European place the continent will proof to strong

 Lacrosse – Dare I say it, hopefully both teams should/could qualify - 22

 Squash – if 2 are allowed per nation I think we could get 4, 2 men 2 women- 4

So I’m giving us 403, up from 327.

Does sound a bit mad when I read it like that, but gaining 52 from cricket and lacrosse alone, plus return of womens football and men’s rugby 7’s.

Edited August 31 by Olympicsnell

[TeamGB 207]

5 minutes ago, Olympicsnell said:

Aquatics

Swimming - similar to Paris, 32

Open water swimming – 1 men 1 woman – 2

Diving – will go with 10

Water Polo – women’s side will push for a extended place, but will come up short 0

Artistic swimming - 2,

 Archery – 2 one of each

 Athletics – 55 sounds like a nice number

 Badminton – Based on world champs will be lucky to qualify anyone, but I will say men’s doubles – 2

 Basketball (in all it’s form’s 0, outside shot of men’s  3x3, but nah) 0

 Boxing – will have a better idea after the upcoming world champs but a minimum of – 6

 Canoe Sprint – none last time, none this time – 0

Canoe Slalom - 2 woman, 2 men, - 4

 Cycling

BMX Freestyle – one of each – 2

BMX Racing – one of each please – 2

Mountain Bike – 2 men 1 woman - 3

Road - 4 in males, 4 in females - 8

Track – 14 is a full team yes? - 14

 Equestrian – Full teams 12

 Fencing – 0

 Football - women I am hopeful for, men will be scuppered by everyone on the island arguing again -18

 Golf - 2 man, 2 women 4

 Gymnastics 2 Teams. Is that - 10

Artistic - I dont see any teams this time around. 2 male, 2 female. - 4

Rhythmic – I think we just absorbed someone from France who is better than what we have, 1

Trampoline - 1 male 1 female – 2

 Handball – nope

 Hockey - both teams could be there. - 32

 Judo – 2/3 would be optimistic based on paris, maybe like boxing we are restocking the shelves. – 4

 Modern Pentathlon – 2 female, 1 men based on the world’s yesterday - 3

 Rowing – will go with 38,

Rowing Coastal Beach Sprints – actually have no idea about this one, will over estimate that it rowing and we are good at it, 4.

 Rugby Sevens – Women should qualify, I will be hopefull with picking the men to get back in, ireland’s decline helps - 24

 Sailing – not sure how many a full squad is, but will go with 14

 Shooting – will go with similar to paris – 6

 Skateboarding- 2

 Sport Climbing – 0 in speed, 2 each in men and women bouldering, 1 each in lead - 6

 Surfing – Going to say 0

 Table Tennis – one…maybe? 1

 Taekwondo – 2 men 2 women we have been strong at this event for a while now – 4

 Tennis – looking at it now….1 male, 2 female, men’s doubles so am confident with 5, but will be optimistic – 6

 Triathlon - 2 man, 2 woman, the relay should qualify. - 4

 Beach Volleyball - 1 Men pair - 2

 Volleyball – Not in this lifetime – 0

 Weightlifting – 2…3 max. will go with -2

 Wrestling - 0

 Cricket – Anthing less than both teams is a national disgrace – 30

 Flag Football – Both teams could get there, but I don’t think they will. Again depends on how many continental sports there are, women are GB’s best bet but Austria will mop that quota up

 Baseball /Softball – Could be in contention but for one European place the continent will proof to strong

 Lacrosse – Dare I say it, hopefully both teams should/could qualify - 22

 Squash – if 2 are allowed per nation I think we could get 4, 2 men 2 women- 4

So I’m giving us 403, up from 327.

Does sound a bit mad when I read it like that, but gaining 52 from cricket and lacrosse alone, plus return of womens football and men’s rugby 7’s.

403 must be written in the stars. No way I picked that number as well.

[LDOG 2,464]

 

 

Aquatics:

Artistic swimming: 0

Diving: 0

Open water swimming: 0

Swimming: 3-5 Hein, Saravia should go. Maybe Santillan, Dieleke, Ceballos too. Don't know if I'm missing someone else. 

Water Polo: Since USA is qualified for the first time in decades it's not unthinkable to qualify in this sport. I'd say our men's team has a bit more of a chance since Canada men's team is weaker than their women's. Brazil has a stronger men's team but it's not impossible to beat. 0-12

 

Archery: we're always a coin toss apart from qualifying or not. Should be like that again. 0-1

 

Athletics:  I'm actually optimistic to increase the numbers. 6-9

 

Badminton: Have never qualified and will not change soon. 0

 

Baseball: 0

 

Softball: we should've a stronger women's team honestly. 0

 

Basketball: This sport is currently dead here sadly. 0

 

Boxing: After failing to qualify anyone for the 1st time, only upwards is the way to go. 0-3

 

Canoe Slalom: Reallocations our only hope. 0-1

 

Canoe Sprint: Hope for some canoe presence this time. 2-4

 

Cricket: 0

 

Cycling

Road: we always get a quota. 1-2

Track: There are improvements but not enough to qualify. 0

BMX Freestyle: Torres will at least show up to defend his title I believe. Not certain since quotas are limited and he's a bit older. 0-1

BMX Racing: we always qualify for the men's event, shouldn't be different. 1

Mountain Biking: A marginal chance to make it. 0-1

 

Equestrian: We should get a quota, but not a certainty. 0-1

 

Fencing: Same as above but more than one is possible. 0-3

 

Field Hockey: Easy. 32

 

Flag Football: No... 0

 

Football: not sure if women's is already impossible. Men's is usually a 50/50. 0-18

 

Golf: A quota in men's golf is always at reach. 1-2.

 

Handball: only men's team has chance of around 40% I'd say. 0-12

 

Artistic Gymnastics: hopefully 1 each gender. 0-2

 

Trampoline Gymnastics: 0

 

Judo: Hoping for a continental quota. 1

 

Lacrosse: I don't think we have a federation. 0

 

Modern Pentathlon: Hoping for a quota. 0-1

 

Rowing: Are continental quotas still a thing? Only way we qualify. 0-1

 

Rugby Sevens: Men's. 12

 

Sailing: Nacra is in. Then some kite, windsurf and Laser quotas should come. 5-7

 

Shooting: Skeet M, Rifle M & maybe with less chance Rifle W. 1-3

 

Skateboarding: not an expert but don't think it should be disimilar to Paris? 0-2

 

Climbing: No chance, Canada too strong. 0

 

Squash: Dunno how many quotas are there but I think it isn't impossible for Romiglio. 0-1

 

Surfing: Unlikely but not impossible. 0-1

 

Table Tennis: i expect at least a quota with Lorenzo. 1-2

 

Taekwondo: continental qualification sees surprises and we aren't that bad. At the moment it doesn't seem like anyone should qualify but we'll see in two years. 0-1

 

Tennis: full men's team with maybe a token woman. 4-7

 

Triathlon: Nada. 0

 

Volleyball indoor: men's team has a chance to NOT qualify this time but they should in theory. 0-12

 

Beach V.: Capogrossos should qualify. Maybe a women's pair is also possible. 2-4

 

Weightlifting: 0

 

Wrestling: not impossible but not expecting it. 0-1

 

 

Pessimistic: 71

 

Likely: 120

 

Optimistic: 167

[Siddhartha Talukdar 242]

3 hours ago, hoversaBR said:

 

 

Cricket: 0. I don't even know if there is a national team here.

 

 

Yes, you do.  is currently 81st in T20 rankings here: rankings

Also  finished last in Americas sub-regional qualifier for 2026 T20 World Cup - tournament

[Rafa Maciel 1,658]

3 hours ago, Olympicsnell said:

 Gymnastics 2 Teams. Is that - 10

Artistic - I dont see any teams this time around. 2 male, 2 female. - 4

Rhythmic – I think we just absorbed someone from France who is better than what we have, 1

Trampoline - 1 male 1 female – 2

 

 

Why would there be an extra 4 quotas in artistic gymnastics?