Summer Olympic Games Los Angeles 2028 Early Qualification Predictions for your Nation Road to LA 2028

[rafalgorka 1,808]

 

What you think will be the size of delegation in LA?

Edited August 30 by Sindo

[rafalgorka 1,808]

Very early thoughts, surely all wrong.

 

Aquatics

Swimming - sth similar to Paris, depending on how many relays we get - 22

Open water swimming - 1 man 

Diving - 2 men, maybe even synchro men's event but i'm very optimistic here

Water Polo - 0

Artistic swimming - 0

 

Archery - 1

 

Athletics - slightly less than in Paris i'm afraid, again depending on relays - 55

 

Badminton - 0

 

Basketball 3x3 - with 12 teams per gender i'm optimistic here, both teams will qualify - 8

Basketball - let me have a big fun here and imagine our Men's Team will be there, Czech Team showed us how to do it in Tokyo, just follow their steps - 12

 

Boxing - women's team may be quite strong - i say 4 women and 1 men - 5

 

Canoe Sprint - sth like Paris, maybe slightly less - 11 (but hoping for a first gold for Poland in this sport, women's kayak events are our chances)

Canoe Slalom - 1 woman, 2 men like in Paris - 3

 

Cycling

BMX Freestyle - 0

BMX Racing - 0

Mountain Bike - 1 man, 1 woman - 2

Road - without Kwiatkowski and Majka this will be hard times for our men's team but i believe K. Niewiadoma will be strong in LA - 1 man and 3 women - 4

Track - with men's team sprint this time I say more people than in Paris - 9

 

Equestrian - i don't think it will be 3 teams like in Paris (it depends a lot on whether Russia/Belarus can participate in our zonal qualifications or not), i say 2 teams and 1 ind - 7

 

Fencing - 3 teams like in Paris and 1 individual - 13 (including reserve athletes)

 

Football - with only 12 teams in men's tournament - 0

 

Golf - 1 man

 

Gymnastics 

Artistic - 1 woman somehow

Rhythmic - 1 woman rather sure, no drama like Lewińska story before Paris this time. And i think there's a chance for a team as well - 6

Trampoline - 0

 

Handball - i don't know why but i believe W team will make it after last minute goal win in the decisive match - 14

 

Hockey - 0

 

Judo - one more than Paris - 5

 

Modern Pentathlon - full squad - 4

 

Rowing - we had a very small team in Paris, it will be better this time - 14

Rowing Coastal Beach Sprints - no idea, honestly - 0

 

Rugby Sevens - 0

 

Sailing - sth like Paris - 10

 

Shooting - sth like Paris - 7

 

Skateboarding - 0

 

Sport Climbing - 2 women in speed event - 2 (and two-in-a-row for Ola Mirosław, our one and only gold medalist in Paris, i do hope it will be at least 2 or 3 golds in LA!)

 

Surfing - 0

 

Table Tennis - i think both teams M and W will qualify this time - 6

 

Taekwondo - 1 somehow

 

Tennis - 4 women, 2 men - and a redemption for Iga after Paris (gold please!), also a chance in Mixed Doubles for her but whatever... this is not that important event for me, i know she wants that singles gold so much, she said in Wimbledon-interview she would give up some grand slam wins for that

 

Triathlon - 1 man, 1 woman - 2

 

Beach Volleyball - 1 M pair, 1 W pair - 4

Volleyball - both our teams will qualify with Men's Team with a big chance for gold, they went through quarters in Paris finally, so it may be easier for them this time - 24 (plus some reserves)

 

Weightlifting - like Paris - 1

 

Wrestling

Greco-Roman - like Paris - 1

Freestyle - like Paris - 4

 

Cricket - 0

 

Flag Football - 0

 

Baseball - 0

Softball - 0

 

Lacrosse - 0

 

Squash - 0 (in general we are not familiar with these new LA sports), and with majority of new (young and urban) sports as well - 3x3 basket and speed sport climbing are the only exceptions

 

So if we add it all it's 268 if i did my maths well (but 3 fencing reserves included), which is obviously way too much, i'm hyper-optimistic here for sure

 

In reality it will be more or less like in previous games:

 

Paris - 218

Tokyo - 210

Rio - 243

London - 217

 

In Beijing we had exactly 268 LOL, but we had 3 team sports (M handball was strong back then, how on earth could they decline so rapidly???)

 

So - as everyone knows, no surprise here - it all depends on how many team sports will make it and if Russia performs in all / some / none sports.

 

And:

1. a large majority of new sports which are not familiar to us

2. with smaller quota in some old sports

is not a good thing for our quota chances ofc.

 

But if 268 is optimistic i would say 220 is somehow real (but i would give up 20 quotas for Men's Basket 5x5 heh)

 

Waiting for other nations predictions with big interest!!!

Edited August 30 by rafalgorka

[JoshMartini007 2,762]

Given that the United States will be given host quotas and the additional team sports help us inflate our numbers we might set a record of the largest Canadian delegation with over 400 athletes.

[nitinsanker 206]

India will surely have its largest squad in LA and this is guaranteed ....

 

We had 117 in rio

We had 119 ( largest ever in tokyo ) 

We had 110 in paris 

 

( We are maximum numbers in our regular sports now and the fall in tokyo was only because womens hockey with 16 players failed to qualify ) 

 

So this time i feel we should hit 160-170..

 

This presumes 1 simple assumption we qualify in womens hockey ....we had a shock when they narrowly missed qualification in 2024 after finishing 4th in tokyo ....that should add 16 to our paris number bringing it to 126.....

 

We will do very well in the new sports 

 

We are almost sure of adding 32 in cricket both mens and womens team 

 

3-4 in squash 

 

2 in mixed compound 

 

Which brings us to 38 +126 which is 164

 

... So 160-170 with some plusses and minuses 

 

in paris we did well to  qualify mens and women teams in recurve and TT and 2 relay squads in 4*400 where we may not qualify all of them this time  so minus  4-5 .....

 

On the other hand we may add some numbers in mens wrestling and boxing ... 

 

So yeah i think 160-170 which may bring us to a position of 15th or so in squad size ....

 

@Roamingrover86@Dolby @Prashanth@Siddhartha Talukdar@Saatvik

 

Edited August 30 by nitinsanker

[Jur 689]

Also very early thoughts.

 

 

Aquatics

Swimming - similar to Paris, depending on how many relays we get - 18

Open water swimming - 2 woman

Diving - 2 women and a men in platform. - 3

Water Polo - 26, both teams should qualify easily

Artistic swimming - 8, no doubt here.

 

Archery - 1 men / 1 women in recurve, not good enough in the men's side of compound - 2

 

Athletics - similar to Paris, maybe one rellay more. - 60

 

Badminton - 1 women. No man, our best athlete here is still Pablo Abian (40 yo) who's been to 5 olympics already, He's still going strong but sadly I dont see him getting into LA and there's no one with potntial behind him. - 1

 

Basketball 3x3 - the women's team should be there - 4

Basketball - I don't see the male team qualifying this time, it will be one of the biggest misses for us. - 12

 

Boxing - i'll go for 4 male and 2 female.

 

Canoe Sprint - we should qualify in everything, I would say 15 doing the math.

Canoe Slalom - 2 woman, 2 men, no extra quota this time around - 4

 

Cycling

BMX Freestyle - 0

BMX Racing - 0

Mountain Bike - 1 man

Road - 4 in males, 2 in females - 6

Track - a male madison team and being lucky. - 2

 

Equestrian - I don't see any team making it. 2 in dressage, 1 in the other 2 events - 4

 

Fencing - 2 individual. No teams, they can't get it together when it matters.

 

Football - women with ease now that there are 16 teams. I don't see it for the men. 18

 

Golf - 2 man, 2 women

 

Gymnastics

Artistic - I dont see any teams this time around. 2 male, 2 female. - 4

Rhythmic - The team should be a medal contender, I don't see it for the individuals - 5

Trampoline - 1 male

 

Handball - we have lost so much star power in the women's team I dont see it gaining it back in time for LA- male should be there - 14

 

Hockey - both teams should be there. - 32

 

Judo - Around 7 i would say

 

Modern Pentathlon - 1 female for sure, maybe we can have a clutch male but I dont see it at this moment. - 1

 

Rowing - Men's 2- and 2x and women's 2x. A small chance of a women's skiff but I dont see it. - 6

Rowing Coastal Beach Sprints - 4, no doubt about it

 

Rugby Sevens - Maybe the boys can clutch a qualification after this good year they have. No chance for the girl, very dissaponiting last years. - 12

 

Sailing - everything but the men's kite - 13

 

Shooting - 2 male / 2 female in skeet being lucky. One of them probably fails so I settle go for 3.

 

Skateboarding- I'm confident in who good this sport is growing, I'm going with 8.

 

Sport Climbing - 1 male and 1 femanle in lead for sure. I'm confident in another qualification in speed. 3

 

Surfing - 2 female, one male. All basque,, probably  - 3

 

Table Tennis - one male, one female - 2

 

Taekwondo - at least 3. But I feel that we go worst every year so I wouldnt be surprise if ti less. Or more. It's very random. - 3

 

Tennis - 3 women, 4 men I would expect at least. But since people reject it.. who knows.... - 7

 

Triathlon - 2 man, 2 woman, the rellay should qualify. - 4

 

Beach Volleyball - 1 Women pair - 2

 

Volleyball - none. It's our worst sport, and even the women's team is getting better I don't see a chance. - 0

 

Weightlifting - probably 0, not that I care that much for this sport either way

 

Wrestling

Greco-Roman - no chance - 0

Freestyle - I don't see the iranian guy that got nationality qualifying, he's our best chance - 0

 

Cricket - 0, no chance.

 

Flag Football - Our women's team is decent, maybe with a bigger bracket we could have made it. - 0

 

Baseball - I hope they are at least in contention for the european quota. - 0

Softball - 0

 

Lacrosse - 0

 

Squash - we have a guy that's like 16 of the world, he could figth it but I don't see it. - 0

 

 

So if we add it all it's 323 if i did my maths well. I'm not being that optimistyc, just what I see happening. It will probably would end up being more. Obviosly way less than our Paris team (383), but because it went almost perfectly during the last qualification, specially in the team sports.

 

This time I don't see men's footbal and basket and women's handball in the games, but I see the guys rugby team. No chances at the new sports with only 6 countries taking part.

 

 

 

Edited August 30 by Jur
colouring

[rafalgorka 1,808]

24 minutes ago, Jur said:

Also very early thoughts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

It would be very sad not to see Spanish Men's Basketball and Football teams in LA. I think football will make it (although the qualis for a 12-team tournament may be surely very random). But I agree with your worries about M basket, sadly.

 

Btw, how is Carolina Marin doing after that awful Paris injury?

Edited August 30 by rafalgorka

[Cobi 1,013]

31 minutes ago, rafalgorka said:

It would be very sad not to see Spanish Men's Basketball and Football teams in LA. I think football will make it (although the qualis for a 12-team tournament may be surely very random). But I agree with your worries about M basket, sadly.

 

Btw, how is Carolina Marin doing after that awful Paris injury?

She will come back to compete at the Euros in Spain next year and then retire.

[CCB 607]

Aquatics

Swimming - last WCh only 13 swimmers, I think in LA some more - 16

Open water swimming - Van Rouwendaal has stopped swimming, so no Dutchies here - 0

Diving - 1 woman, Else Praasterink from 10m - 1

Water Polo - women's team - 13

Artistic swimming - depends on the Brouwer-sister (who won bronze in Paris) - 2

 

Archery - men's and women's team should qualify - 6

 

Athletics -  depending on relays, but very optimistic about Dutch athletics - 50

 

Badminton - no more money goes to this sport, sadly - 0

 

Basketball 3x3 - with 12 teams per gender i'm optimistic here, both teams will qualify - 8

 

Basketball - no way, despite we have the tallest people in the world - 0

 

Boxing - we have one strong woman (van der Toorn) - 1

 

Canoe Sprint - Konijn and Vorsselman, like in Paris - 2

 

Canoe Slalom - 1 or 2 maybe - 2

 

Cycling

BMX Freestyle - thank God no Dutch competitors - 0

BMX Racing - will Niek Kimmann return after his heart disease? - 3 women and 1 or 2 men - 5

Mountain Bike - 1 man, 2 women - 3

Road - 3 men and a full women's team - 7

Track - two teamsprints, and 4 endurance riders in total (2 men, 2 woman) - 10

 

Equestrian 

Eventing - a team - 3

Dressage - no team perhaps, would be the first time in history I think - 1

Jumping - a lot of talented combinations, hopefully the owners don't sell the horses again just before LA - 3

 

Fencing - 1 individual fencer: Tristan Tulen - 1

 

Football - unfortunately I don't see that happen - 0

 

Golf - very strict Dutch criteria - 0

 

Gymnastics 

Artistic - hopefully a men's team again, no women's team anymore - 6

Rhythmic - we don't do that in Netherlands - 0

Trampoline - 0

 

Handball - maybe the Dutch women again, men are talented, but too much strong European teams - 14

 

Hockey - both teams should easily qualify, so they can defend their titles - 32

 

Judo - both genders three - 6

 

Modern Pentathlon - sadly enough, because I like this sport so much - 0

 

Rowing - although Dutch rowing assocation is a mess after the Paris success, I predict 8 boats or something - 30

Rowing Coastal Beach Sprints - hopefully two singles and one mix double - 4

 

Rugby Sevens - 0

 

Sailing - when we are lucky - 10

 

Shooting - 0

 

Skateboarding - still a sport at the games, don't like it at all - 0

 

Sport Climbing - I like this very much, but I myself am too heavy, otherwise we could have one athlete here - 0

 

Surfing - 0

 

Table Tennis - no more money for this sport in Netherlands - 0

 

Taekwondo - no more money for this sport in Netherlands - 0

 

Tennis - hopefully we finally do well in men's doubles in LA - 6

 

Triathlon - 1 man, 1 woman - 2

 

Beach Volleyball - two pairs at the men's side, one women's pair - 6

Volleyball - no men's team; women's team will be very difficult (even they are in the quarterfinals of the WCh this week, but that's because of an easy draw and Boskovic' injury), I think France, Belgium, Germany, Canada, maybe Bulgaria have better chances this cycle - 0

 

Weightlifting - like Paris - 0

 

Wrestling - 0

 

Cricket - 0

 

Flag Football - 0

 

Baseball - maybe a men's team, but I don't know much about the qualification - 0

Softball - maybe the women's team, but it will come down to an Italy-Netherlands match to decide - 0

 

Lacrosse - 0

 

Squash - 0 

 

In total: 250 slightly less than in Paris, but still a pretty big team!

Edited August 31 by CCB

[TeamGB 207]

I remember giving this a go last time and being horribly off, maybe I'll be closer this cycle.

 

Aquatics:

Artistic swimming: I'm hoping the squad can build off a historic medal in Paris and potentially qualify a team. The desire seems to be there as a large squad entered at the worlds. Kate Shortman didn't compete in Singapore but Izzy Thorpe did, so if she finds a partner then I would expect a pair to enter. (2-8 athletes)

Diving: Like artistic swimming, the squad had a strong Paris performance and looks to be building towards LA with a mix of new and old faces in the worlds team. Again, I would expect a full squad, although numbers would vary due to doubling up between synchro and individual events (10-12 athletes)

Open water swimming: Hector Pardoe was the only participant in Singapore, and I suspect he will be in with a shout of LA if he wants to. Amelie Blocksidge could also qualify if she focuses more on the open water. (1-2 athletes)

Swimming: With the addition of stroke 50s, I'm hoping aquatics GB will lift the ridiculous roster cap of 30, especially with such a strong junior team coming through. The games could be a transitional for the swimming team, with the older generation passing on the torch (28-36 athletes)

Water Polo: 12 teams will now be competing in the Women's tournament, with gives us a sniff of qualification. Albeit the worlds performance didn't fill me with confidence, but the opportunity is certainly there if some of the big European nations snap up global qualifying spots. (0-11 athletes)

 

Archery: The team was certainly fortunate to qualify a full rota for Paris, and the odds are reduced this time with less team quotas. If we can find a decent male compound archer then the compound mixed team should be there, and both recurve squads have the ability (4-8 athletes)

 

Athletics: 63 went to Paris, 66 will go to Tokyo, and I expect the number to be similar in LA, potentially with a few relay additions for the mixed 4x100. Certainly at a European youth level, the team is consistently strong, so hopefully this will translate to the senior team in a few years. (60-75 athletes)

 

Badminton: A small team in Paris is likely to be repeated unless some new talent starts to emerge (1-5 athletes)

 

Baseball: European silver in 2023 shows the squad is in contention for a European spot, with automatic qualification for the WBC in 2026 giving more opportunity. I wouldn't say we are favourites but the opportunity is there. (0-24 athletes)

 

Softball: I would say this team is more likely than baseball but would still be up against it for European qualification, which is realistically the only route, Italy are the favourites but a single qualifier would make things interesting. (0-15)

 

Basketball: In terms of 5x5, both teams seemed to have regressed despite a growing domestic scene, so qualification is highly unlikely. For 3x3, recent entries at the Europeans gives me some hope we are at least trying to qualify, but they are still underdogs. (0-4 athletes)

 

Boxing: After Paris where my view that Olympic boxing is not fit for purpose was solidified by some rather dubious judging, I genuinely have no expectations for the team. Liverpool is hosting the worlds this year, and maybe with the implementation of World Boxing, the sport will improve. There will always be domestic strength across the home nations but it depends on so many factors. (5-10 athletes)

 

Canoe Slalom: Potentially this could be a fresh squad as the old guard moves on. U23 results have been promising, particularly with the Leaver siblings, so a full squad could certainly qualify. (3-4 athletes)

 

Canoe Sprint: After no athletes in Paris, I expect a similar storyline to unfolding in LA, although the women's K4 could certainly qualify (0-4 athletes)

 

Cricket: One of our biggest qualification boosts, both teams seem virtually pre qualified, especially the men's if world rankings are used. (30 athletes)

 

Cycling

Road: After being the only nation to qualify a full squad (although there was only 1 entrant in each time trial) in Paris, I expect a similar team in LA, although it will be tight for both men and women (6-8 athletes)

Track: There feels to be a constant influx of fresh talent in the track squads from junior level, so I expect a full track team like Paris (16 athletes)

BMX Freestyle: I think a similar team to Paris is on the cards although I wouldn't be surprised if 2 from a gender qualify (2-3 athletes)

BMX Racing: Despite most recent successes coming from Beth Shriever, the women's squad is much poorer than the men's. Despite this, I hope Emily Hutt can make the jump from U23 level (3-5 athletes)

Mountain Biking: A full squad is on the cards if Pidcock and Richards can score enough ranking points (3-4 athletes).

 

Equestrian: I expect a full squad comfortably. (9 athletes)

 

Fencing: Carolina Stutchbury was so close the qualifying to Paris and I hope she can make it this time (0-1 athletes)

 

Field Hockey: Despite a disappointing European's I expect the squads to bounce back in time for the LA (32 athletes)

 

Flag Football: 5th at the world games was strong for the women, but with only 6 teams it will be tight. I hope one squad can sneak through (0-10 athletes)

 

Football: Both teams clearly are capable of qualifying, but I suspect the men won't attempt. I am even doubtful about the women's as the argument to grow the game has subsided with recent successes (0-18 athletes)

 

Golf: A mixed team event should be straightforward qualification with our depth (4-5 athletes)

 

Artistic Gymnastics: Injury permitting, a full squad should qualify for both genders (8-10 athletes)

 

Trampoline Gymnastics: (2-3 athletes)

 

Judo: Paris was disappointing, and I don't think the squad is moving in the right direction (2-4 athletes)

 

Lacrosse: I still haven't quite worked out our strength but I think both squads should snag European quotas (22 athletes)

 

Modern Pentathlon: Depending on team limits I hope for a full squad, the new format may throw up some challenges (3-4 athletes)

 

Rowing: A steady stream of junior talent should help top up most of the lake events. Coastal rowing is not as strong but a full squad is still possible (40-48)

 

Rugby Sevens: Both squads seem to be winding down so I honestly have no idea. I hope the women's squad can take some strength from the 15s. (0-24)

 

Sailing: A full squad should be possible (14 athletes)

 

Shooting: Likely a similar team to Paris, with Shotgun dominating (5-10 athletes)

 

Skateboarding: (2-4 athletes)

 

Climbing: The separation of the events allows for more opportunities, and I expect a slightly larger team the Paris, likely entirely in Boulder and Lead (3-5 athletes)

 

Squash: Numbers permitting, we should qualify a full team (2 athletes)

 

Surfing: Sky Brown may qualify given she has lots of experience surfing in LA (0-1 athletes)

 

Table Tennis: (2-4 athletes)

 

Taekwondo: I'm not too sure because the qualification system is changing. (3-5 athletes)

 

Tennis: Being on a hard court may encourage more athletes to compete: (9-12 athletes)

 

Triathlon: A full womens team and 2 men for the relay (5)

 

Volleyball: Bello twins have potential (0-2)

 

Weightlifting: (0-3)

 

 

Pessimistic: 341

 

Likely: 403

 

(Very) Optimistic: 541

 

We sent 327 to Paris but with all the new team sports a jump seems certain. Passing 400 certainly seems feasible, but it all depends on team sports qualification pathways.

 

 

 

 

 

[Federer91 3,020]

I'm sure many will see record numbers with the ever expanding schedule.